Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[sgnl00]

I'll add in the votes from mine that you don't have.

Pavlich: 8
Bartel 14:
Cassisi: 6
Montagna: 14
Hanneberry: 9
Naitanui: 3
Griffin: 9

Possibly may need these 2 as well
Tippet: 4
Rischitelli: 6

Should make for interesting reading after a few more leaderboards are posted.

Cheers. Swapped AG's Hayes vote too.

Will add WTS's then probably off to sleep finally. Hopefully get a few more postings.

edit: Boak looking the goods.

 

[Grimmjow]

like your work sgnl.

heres my count, its 90% finalized. just purchased a property so im spending more time chasing the bank.

its all coming along. good work everyone, hope we find some winners.


EDIT: sgnl, if you are to use my data please use first value eg. Chris Judd 21-25

 

[WhippingCupcakes]

Following on from my post earlier in the week I think I'm going to go with the same system and also use BK's system.

Tier 1 - Watson, Judd, Thompson
Tier 2 - Harvey, Hayes, Goodes, Brown, Riewoldt
Tier 3 - Pendles, Selwood, Boak
Tier 4 - Swallow, Boak, Cassisi, Rodan, Jack, Green, Sylvia (Yes, I know I have Boak twice)

- Tier 1 + 4 players from tiers 2 + 3 (All combinations)
- Tier 1 + 4 players from tiers 2 + 4 (All combinations)
- 20 combinations of 5-8 legs from tiers 2, 3 and 4.
- 20 combinations of 5-8 legs from tiers 3 and 4.
- 10 favourite combinations with more outlay on them.

As well as BK's system;

Grade A - Watson, Thompson, Judd, Brown, Harvey
Grade B - Hayes, Boak, Riewoldt, Goodes, Pendles, Selwood

- Grade A + 1 from Grade B (All combinations)
- Grade A + 2 from Grade B (All combinations)
- Grade A (- 1 player) + 1 from Grade B (All combinations)

BK's system comes out to 52 combinations and I haven't calculated yet but my system will come out to about 160-170 combinations, I think.

That is likely how I will bet right now - I'm going to sleep on it, though.

I like BK's system that you've stated here. Similar to what i was trying to do but simpler.
How much do you intend to put on these 52 combinations? Personally i'd put $5 and wouldn't want to fork out anymore than that.

 

[WeetBixKid]

BK's system seems to have very little cover for the Grade A players, unless I'm misreading it?

 

[s1bbald]

Here's my quick analysis on each of the clubs (keeping in mind, I have no official count, just going off the games I've seen, and postings on this thread):

Adelaide: Thompson's a lock here. I'm very glad I got some on him at $14, gives me a headstart this year

Brisbane: Brown is fairly safe here. He's got 3-4 games where he assured of at least 2, most likely three, and that'll be enough.

Carlton: Judd. Enough said.

Collingwood: On a knife's edge, though I hope Pendlebury gets it. I won't be touching Swan at all, and will only be including Pendlebury as a value pick, if the value is still there.

Essendon: Watson is in by a mile here. Could represent a bit of value in our anchors, if he is around the $1.75 Centrebet were offering.

Fremantle: Deeply concerning in my opinion. You've got the three main fields that have question marks over their polling abilities in a ruckman, a first year player, and a forward (though he does venture more than most). I'll have a little bit on Barlow, if he represents value, and he could after Pav and Sandi both played well on Friday, but apart from that, I'll be leaving it alone.

Geelong: I thought Selwood represented value before this week, but I've gone pretty cold on that idea now. Will be used sparingly, like Barlow, and there is too much doubt over Ablett to risk him at those short odds. May consider sneaking Bartel into 1 multi.

Hawthorn: Hodge has this one sewn up and is far too short. Is not as certain as Judd, so I'll pass.

Melbourne: Admittedly, this is a side I have not followed much this year, so I'm heavily reliant on this thread for advice on the Dees. By the looks of it, I'll sneak Sylvia into a few, but aside from that, I'll be leaving it alone.

North Melbourne: A classic two horse race. Opinions are divided over the result, but I believe Boomer will take it out, not with a huge degree of confidence though. Will look at the odds, and if I see Boomer out near the $2 figure, he may feature prominently. Otherwise, I'll be looking to Swallow for a value pick.

Port Adelaide: This right here's the money maker boys (and girls)! Another two horse race, but at extreme value! The Cassisi/Boak double-up will get a good workover in my multis, and if all goes right, will make my end result 6-8x sweeter!

Richmond: Last week I listed J. Riewoldt as one of my locks, and I still believe this to be so. It could be that I'm clouded by bias over my previous Richmond anchor in Deledio (who spitefully was not included in my Supercoach this year either), but I can see at least 3 near best on's for young Jack, and that should be enough. Will probably have a slight saver on Deledio though.

St Kilda: I think I love Lenny. Lenny is a near lock for me, and at ~$3, will make life very sweet for me. Obviously the dangers lie in his Midfield buddies, but I believe Lenny epitomises the 'fairest' in 'Best and Fairest'.

Sydney: This is all about Jack for me. I will be 100% behind Jack and have already informed my boss of where he can stick his job if Kieran gets up (my boss is my mate, so my bases are covered there)! That said, Goodes is probably a 65% chance of getting up. But if I can get Jack at $16, I'll be hitting that hard. Imagine a Jack-Cassisi/Boak multi alone! Then chuck hayes in!

Western Bulldogs: No thanks. Don't want a bar of this.

West Coast: Might have a sniff at Naitanui (let's face it, the palm tree stands out). But aside from that, no thanks.

I reckon as my information is mainly from this thread, the above write-up represents a conglomoration of all the opinions of this thread. Perhaps this could be the theoretical partner to sgnl's work (which is fantastic, again)?

 

[WeetBixKid]

Yep, that's right. If 2 A graders miss then you don't make anything.

They aren't his players, by the way. They're the players I chose for his system - He could have something completely different.

Yeah- I did misread it slightly, I thought there was even less cover. I quite like it, will probably stick to what worked for me last year though.

 

[s1bbald]

Yeah- I did misread it slightly, I thought there was even less cover. I quite like it, will probably stick to what worked for me last year though.

Care to explain, post links?

 

[WeetBixKid]

Potentially:

Group 1: Brown + Thompson + 4 teams (cover 2 players from each team) = 16 combinations
Group 2: Thompson + Watson + as above
Group 3: Watson + Riewoldt + as above

= 48 combinations. "

The biggest flaw is that I plan on using teams with big value, such as Sydney/Port/Melb. If someone like Bolton/MacDonald/Rodan gets up I'm ****ed ... I plan on using those guys in a few extra bets, but that would still hit me pretty hard. Anchors are decently spread, covered if Watson + Riewoldt or Thompson + Brown miss or 1 miss, but screwed if the wrong 2 miss.

Really hope there's some value in H2H's or groups though, then they'll definitely be implemented.

Last year I had a smaller bank & no coverage in my anchors, & used Ablett > Swan, J. Selwood to win his group then all combinations of St Kilda (Hayes + Goddard), West Coast (Le Cras + A. Selwood), Brisbane (Black + Brown), Adelaide (Vince + Thompson). With Hayes, Le Cras, Vince + Black/Brown all getting up the odds were massive.

I am liking BK's system though, seems the idea is instead of covering teams, you pick 6 or so realistic but high paying chances, then mix them up & hope a few of them come off with well your well picked anchors. Will definitely pick some players to use for that system & see it works out paying better/giving as better chance than mine.

 

[echelon22]

Some missing votes for the spreadsheet:

Goodwin - 3
Rischitelli - 5
Simpson - 6
Didak - 6
Winderlich - 1
Pavlich - 8
Chapman - 12
Franklin - 10
MacDonald - 4
Wells - 5
Cornes - 5
Rodan - 5
Newman - 3
Dal Santo - 10
Hannebery - 8
Malceski - 9
Naitanui - 3
Griffen - 8

Looking like a great resource keep up the good work

 

[the_big_sav]

my top 8

min/max/ave

swan 17/32/24.5
ablett 17/30/23.5
hodge 18/27/22.5
judd 15/29/22
goddard 14/26/20
selwood 13/27/20
hayes 13/25/19
pendlebury 11/27/19

my team leaders

adel: thompson
bris: brown
carl: judd
coll: swan
ess: watson
freo: sandilands
geel: gaz
hawks: hodge
melb: green 6 to 15 sylvia 7 to 13
nth: harvey 12 to 16 swallow 10 to 18
rich: riewoldt 7 to 16 deledio 8 to 17
port: boak 9 to 18 cassisi 8 to 17
stk: goddard 14 to 26 hayes 13 to 25
syd: goodes 10 to 22 jack 11 to 19
wc: priddis 5 to 10 cox 5 to 10
bull: boyd 8 to 19 cooney 10 to 21

i have cox polling 2 or 3 in rounds 7 and 8 and possibly polling in rounds 16,20,21.

i have deledio infront of riewoldt but as discussed he has a terrible polling history and i see riewoldt polling like franklin in '07 being a break out year

 

[s1bbald]

Here's what I've come up with: (apologies for the long post)
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Sylvia
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Barlow
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Selwood
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Sylvia
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow-Selwood
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow-Sylvia
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood-Sylvia
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Sylvia-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Sylvia-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Sylvia-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Sylvia-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Boak-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Boak-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Cassisi-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Cassisi-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Brown-Jack-Hayes
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Barlow
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Selwood
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Sylvia
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Cassisi
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Boak
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Jack
Thompson-Watson-Brown-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Pendlebury
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Barlow
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Selwood
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Sylvia
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Watson-Hayes
Judd-Watson-Brown-Pendlebury
Judd-Watson-Brown-Barlow
Judd-Watson-Brown-Selwood
Judd-Watson-Brown-Sylvia
Judd-Watson-Brown-Cassisi
Judd-Watson-Brown-Boak
Judd-Watson-Brown-Jack
Judd-Watson-Brown-Hayes
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Pendlebury
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Barlow
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Selwood
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Sylvia
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Cassisi
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Boak
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Jack
Judd-Thompson-Brown-Hayes

With about $3 on each combination (don't want a huge outlay). Can anyone see any fault in this?

 

[AG]

Rischitelli could make you a very very unhappy man.

 

[Athomas]

Rischitelli could make you a very very unhappy man.

Worth the risk though imo.

I have given
Douglas 8% Chance
Rischitelli 10% Chance
Winderlich 3% Chance
JMcdonald 2% Chance
Deledio 10% Chance


I am happy to risk all those, however some wouldn't be and that's something they should look at.

My final breakdown of usage in mutlis is:

Use in Multis
Judd 91
Watson 82
Thompson 83
Brown 67
Jvolt 64
Goodes 49
Jack 42
Boak 25
Rodan 20
Cassisi 14
Sylvia 15
Green 15
Douglas 8
NDS 9
Griffen 7
Harvey 7

Might not be the best indication as obviously stakes come into it, but in my 91 multis that's how it's structured.

 

[jimbob7085]

Looks pretty good s1bbald. Rischitelli breakdowns? I've given him the 3 in round 3, 2 in rounds 18 and 21, and 1 in round 1 and 19 giving him a total of 9. I have Brown on 13 with the 3 in rounds 2, 19 and 21, 2 votes in round 1 and 1 vote in rounds 3 and 10. I don't see Rischa as a real threat but would be interested to see other people's breakdowns as I plan on using Brown as an anchor because of his multiple standout games.
Also does anyone remember when the TAB released their team votes, H2H and group market last year?

 

[s1bbald]

Rischitelli could make you a very very unhappy man.

I could easily put $10 on each of the Rischi-Boak/Cassisi multis. That would solve any sorrows. Could even chuck Rodan in there if need be.

 

[stuziman]

Worth the risk though imo.

I have given
Douglas 8% Chance
Rischitelli 10% Chance
Winderlich 3% Chance
JMcdonald 2% Chance
Deledio 10% Chance


I am happy to risk all those, however some wouldn't be and that's something they should look at.

My final breakdown of usage in mutlis is:

Use in Multis
Judd 91
Watson 82
Thompson 83
Brown 67
Jvolt 64
Goodes 49
Jack 42
Boak 25
Rodan 20
Cassisi 14
Sylvia 15
Green 15
Douglas 8
NDS 9
Griffen 7
Harvey 7

Might not be the best indication as obviously stakes come into it, but in my 91 multis that's how it's structured.

i think ill do something similar without as much jack

 

[Brownlow King]

Care to explain, post links?

I was asked my theory and way of structuring betting options in a PM and I replied showing my views.
It has been portayed on posts recently by Forthwrite and is an accurate version of my plans. As pointed out by him, the players he has used aren't my picks, they are his and I didn't share my exact picks with anyone via a PM. I have no dramas with everyone seeing my theory and hadn't had time to post it.
I'm still working out exactly what I'll end up with but I will be banking on A graders of 5 players where I lose the lost if 2 lose, win OK if 1 loses and win well if aall win with B graders.
The weekend results in the Syd, North, Freo, Bulldogs, Geel, Port games all could have major bearings on my final selections.
I have previously posted the teams I won't be playing with.

 

[s1bbald]

Sorry BK, my question was directed at WeetBixKid. Hopefully you see a good, albeit conservative example of your system in my post a few clicks up.

EDIT: This day must be like Christmas to you, mate. If so, Merry "Christmas"!

 

[chico]

my completed leaderboard, again similar to everyone else's:

ablett 25
swan 23
judd 22
selwood 20
p'bury 20
hayes 19
hodge 19
goddard 18
montagna 17
boyd 15
goodes 15
s'lands 15
bharvey 15

team votes:

adel - thompson 14 (goodwin 8, douglas 6)
bris - brown 12 (black 8, rischitelli 8, brennan 6)
carl - judd 22 (murphy 10, gibbs 6, simpson 5, betts 5)
coll - swan 23 (p'bury 20, didak 12, thomas 7, ball 5)
ess - watson 13 (w'lich 4, fletcher 4, stanton 3)
fre - s'lands 15 (barlow 14, pavlich 9, mundy 9, hill 8)
geel - ablett 25 (selwood 20, chapman 14, bartel 13, johnson 6, kelly 6)
haw - hodge 19 (mitchell 12, franklin 11, rioli 7, lewis 7, sewell 6, burgoyne 6)
melb - sylvia 10 (green 8, moloney 6, scully 5)
nm - harvey 15 (swallow 10, wells 5, rawlings 5)
pa - boak 11 (kcornes 8, cassisi 7, pearce 7)
rich - riewoldt 10 (deledio 8, newman 5, martin 4)
stk - hayes 19 (goddard 18, montagna 17, dal santo 13, riewoldt 7)
syd - goodes 15 (jack 12, jbolton 10, hannebery 8, okeefe 7, malceski 7)
wc - priddis 7 (lecras 6, cox 4, naitanui 4, aselwood 3)
wb - boyd 15 (cooney 14, griffen 8, cross 8, gia 8, hall 8, lake 6)

everyone on here has done an amazing job, im sure when the markets are released we will find value somewhere, there is always value

 

[sgnl00]

Hey BK just wondering if you are going to post your tally for spreadsheet use?

I've got 10 tallys so far, if anyone wants a copy already (whether pic or actual spread file), let me know.

 

[chico]

like others on here i have backed most of the favs pretty strongly and like most my worst two results are swan and ablett. have backed everyone one of the top 7 as well as others at various points throughout the season for the win some into premiership quinellas involving the saints, coll, geel. The ones that have given me plenty of room to work with have been hodge before the season at 50, selwood only a couple of months ago at 101, and of course judd and hayes at good prices, judd still is great value imo.

last year as with most here the team votes was the gold mine i think most of us were happy with hayes, tredrea and lecras getting up, it does seem as others have said that this year group votes and head2heads might be where the real value is unless ur prepared to really back ur own individual leaderboards despite some teams being real 50/50's.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Hi guys,

Been away for the weekend, so much work to do! Here is my final count:

G Ablett 25
C Judd 23
Hodge 22
J Selwood 22
Pendlebury 20
Swan 20
Hayes 19
Harvey 18
Goddard 17
M Barlow 17
Bartel 16
Sandilands 16
M Boyd 15
Goodes 15
S Mitchell 15
S Thompson 15
Montagna 14
Swallow 14
P Chapman 14

Club Leaders:

Adel: Thompson 15, Douglas 10
Bris: Brown 11, Brennan 9, Black 7
Carl: Judd 23, Murphy 12
Coll: Pendles 20, Swan 20
Ess: Watson 11, Winderlich 7, Stanton / Fletcher 5
Frem: Barlow 17, Sandilands 16, Pavlich 11
Geel: Ablett 25, Selwood 22, Bartel 16
Haw: Hodge 22, Mitchell 15, Sewell 10
Melb: Sylvia 10, Davey 10, Moloney 8, Green 7
NMFC: Harvey 18, Swallow 14, Wells 11
Port: Pearce, Cassisi, Boak 11
Richmond: Deledio, Riewoldt, Newman 7, Cousins and Tuck 6
Stk: Hayes 19, Goddard 17, Montagna 14
WCE: Priddis 8, LeCras 6, Naitanui 4
WB: Boyd 15, Cooney 12 and Gia 12, Cross 11

 

[Brownlow King]

Sorry BK, my question was directed at WeetBixKid. Hopefully you see a good, albeit conservative example of your system in my post a few clicks up.

EDIT: This day must be like Christmas to you, mate. If so, Merry "Christmas"!

Yep 3 weeks today is Christmas day and today is the 2nd biggest day for Brownlow punters if they put up all of the exotic betting options.

 

[Brownlow King]

Hey BK just wondering if you are going to post your tally for spreadsheet use?

I've got 10 tallys so far, if anyone wants a copy already (whether pic or actual spread file), let me know.

Yes I will put up absolutely everything I know in 1 tally by the end of the week.
If you read my posts you can probably pick up where I'm at anyway as I've shared lots of info.

 

[Modra93]

looking forward to quinella odds. thinking of boxing hodge, pendlebury, judd and selwood into geelong to make the gf and coll to make the gf (12 combinations)...keen to include ablett but expect his quinella odds to be not worth including in such a mix... hopefully he suffers the brownlow curse and selwood can pick up the scraps