Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[Athomas]

Just on Port, Davenport will surely get the 3 votes in Round 2. 4 goals in the last quarter, single handed won the game for them. Boak in the mix for 2 & 1.

Loving the Kieran Jack value, could do some wonderful things to our multis this year should he get up.

I had Davenport 3, Boak 2, Westhoff 1 as well. Did some have Boak 3?

Jack is amazing value. I'm really thinking Goodes won't poll as well this year too, of course he could but he really hasn't had that good of a year.

 

[krayfesh]

I'm definitely including Jack in some of my multis.

The only problem this year is that I only have Judd at God Tier.

There's a couple of High Tier in Jonathon Brown and Jobe Watson, but overall I'm just not feeling it.

 

[stuziman]

anyone betting against goods and b harvey are mad

there records speak for themselves and the more games they play the more the umpires notice them and probably favour them

blokes new to the elite level take a while to poll be wary of that with barlow, jack & swallow types

i agree with everyone else tho brown, thompson, watson, judd & hodge are your locks

goodes, harvey and jvolting are semi locks

lecras, silvia, pav, hayes, boak all value

 

[sgnl00]

Undecided how to configure this spreadsheet for averages... If somebody has not listed the player for votes do I:

a) Give the player the same as the lowest vote getter that person has recorded

or

b) Strike out and take an average from a lesser pool

I am thinking a), seeing as the players I will have to do this for probably wont go near winning their respective teams.

 

[mbosca]

Can someone please give a breakdown of votes on Kane Cornes?

I know he doesn't have a good polling history, but he has had some big games this year, especially in wins, and im a bit worried writing Port down to a two horse race.

 

[mike262]

Kornes

rd1. -3
rd6. -2
rd20. -1

Total 6

 

[Athomas]

anyone betting against goods and b harvey are mad

there records speak for themselves and the more games they play the more the umpires notice them and probably favour them

blokes new to the elite level take a while to poll be wary of that with barlow, jack & swallow types

i agree with everyone else tho brown, thompson, watson, judd & hodge are your locks

goodes, harvey and jvolting are semi locks

lecras, silvia, pav, hayes, boak all value

Goodes has been considerably worse then previous years though imo. Harvey I agree with, his polling history is too good for me to touch Swallow/Either of them really. Agree on Barlow too.

Can someone please give a breakdown of votes on Kane Cornes?

I know he doesn't have a good polling history, but he has had some big games this year, especially in wins, and im a bit worried writing Port down to a two horse race.

Round 1 - 3
Round 16 - 1
Round 20 - 3

Total : 7

I think it's good to bring him up for consideration, as he is the outright favourite for the group. (He is every year though. )

Maybe focusing too much on previous years but he doesn't really poll well and shouldn't win ports. The others are especially value and worth the risk.

 

[AjsGuns]

not as much discussion as i would have thought!
re Kornes: Cant see him polling more than 9 and imo to win Port you will need 10+ (around 11-12)

Round 1 - 3
Round 6 - 1
Round 7 - 1
Round 20 - 3

Total - 8

 

[sgnl00]

Entered in the 5 from people who have already posted... Doesn't tell us much new. Although it is a very small sample size at the moment

Clear locks:

Thompson, Judd, Watson, Hodge.

Almost locks:

Hayes, Harvey, Brown.

Too close to call, but two clear leaders:

Swan/Pendles, Sandi/Barlow, Ablett/Selwood, Jack/Goodes, Sylvia/Green, Boak/Cassisi (?), Riewoldt/Deledio.

Don't touch with a ten foot pole:

Bulldogs, West Coast. Maybe Port.


Need more data!

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Round 22

Fremantle V Carlton
3. S. Hill
2. M. Johnson
1. C. Judd

Geelong V West Coast
3. G. Ablett
2. J. Kelly
1. D. Milburn

Hawthorn V Collingwood
3. L. Franklin
2. S. Mitchell
1. D. Swan

Adelaide V St. Kilda
3. S. Thompson
2. R. Douglas
1. N. Dal Santo

Brisbane V Sydney
3. K. Jack
2. N. Malceski
1. J. Kennedy

Western Bulldogs V Essendon
3. J. Grant
2. C. Ward
1. D. Giansiracusa

Richmond V Port Adelaide
3. T. Boak
2. M. Morton
1. D. Brogan

Melbourne V North Melbourne
3. L. Greenwood
2. B. Harvey
1. B. Green

Final Leaderboard:
26 - G. Ablett
25 - C. Judd
24 - S. Pendlebury
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood
19 - D. Swan

I declare the winner of the 2010 Brownlow Medal; Gary Ablett!

So there we have it, Ablett leapfrogs Judd right at the finish to win! I still believe the medal could be won by 3 or 4 players, it's that close. If the second year Brownlow-blues strikes Ablett as it has done to previous winners, i'd say Judd will come out victorious. But keep in mind, if this occurs you'd expect Selwood would be recieving a fair few of his votes, so he is still my big smokey for mine.

My 'most team votes' market will follow soon, perhaps even tomorrow, i'm just working out the format.

For more info, final round discussion, complete round 22 votes, and finalised leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com

 

[mike262]

Leaderboard

26-Ablett
24-Swan
23-Hodge
21-Judd
20-Pendles
18-Sandilands

Adel: 12-Thompson, 9-Douglous, 7-Tippet
Port: 10-Boak, 6-Cassisi, Shultz, Kornes
WCE: 7-Priddis, 5-NicNat
Freo: 18-Sandi, 16-Barlow, 10-Pavlich
Bris: 15-Brown, 8-Brennan,Risky
Syd: 14-Bolton, 12-Jack, 10-Goodes
Geel: 26-Ablett, 17-Chapman, 16-Bartel
Coll: 24-Swan, 20-Pend, 13-Didak
Saints: 17-Goddard, 16-NDS, 15-Montagna
WBD: 15-Gia, 12-Boyd, 11-Cooney
Carl: 21-Judd, 7-Betts, 6-Simpson
Hawks: 23-Hodge, 9-Lewis, 8-Mitchell
Rich: 11-Riewoldt, 10-Tuck, 8-Delideo
Melb: 15-Green, 11-Sylvia, 6-Moloney
North: 13-Harvey, 10-Swallow, 7-Wells
Ess: 8-Watson, 6-Hille, 4-Stanton


Some of my results reflect consensus and some dont.

 

[echelon22]

Entered in the 5 from people who have already posted... Doesn't tell us much new. Although it is a very small sample size at the moment

Clear locks:

Thompson, Judd, Watson, Hodge.

Almost locks:

Hayes, Harvey, Brown.

Too close to call, but two clear leaders:

Swan/Pendles, Sandi/Barlow, Ablett/Selwood, Jack/Goodes, Sylvia/Green, Boak/Cassisi (?), Riewoldt/Deledio.

Don't touch with a ten foot pole:

Bulldogs, West Coast. Maybe Port.


Need more data!

I like this project. Wanted to do something similar but now I don't have to, I'll contribute some data though

Leaderboard:
Ablett 26 (23-30)
Swan 25 (20-31)
Hodge 22 (19-24)
Judd 20 (18-24)
Selwood 18 (16-21)
Pendlebury 17 (13-22, with great potential for another 5+ directly from Swan if Swan is overlooked)

Clubs:
Adelaide - Thompson 14, Douglas 7
Brisbane - Brown 13, Black/Brennan 6
Carlton - Judd 20, Murphy 7
Collingwood - Swan 25, Pendlebury 17
Essendon - Watson 11, Stanton/Ryder 5
Fremantle - Sandilands 17, Barlow 16, Pavlich 8
Geelong - Ablett 26, Selwood 18, Bartel 13
Hawthorn - Hodge 22, Mitchell 12
Melbourne - Sylvia 11, Green 7
North - Harvey 16, Swallow 12
Port - Boak 10, Pearce 7, Cassisi 6
Richmond - Riewoldt 8, Deledio 7
St Kilda - Goddard 15, Hayes 14, Montagna 12
Sydney - Goodes 15, Jack 12
West Coast - Priddis 7, Embley/Cox/LeCras 3
Bulldogs - Boyd 13, Cooney 13, Hall/Giansiracusa 9

Betting-wise I'm going a low investment all-or-nothing type system for the teams using Watson/Brown/Thompson/Goodes as anchors with approx 30% of my stake on that combo, then 5 further combos adding one of Sylvia, Barlow, Hayes, Riewoldt and Boak (10% on each). I'll also throw in a saver on Jack in case he knocks off Goodes but I won't be covering any of my other anchor legs

 

[s1bbald]

Forthwrite, would you not consider Jack as well as Goodes? I like Goodes too, but at Jack's odds, considering the form he's in, you'd hate to miss out on that value!

 

[smashing]

Might make a spreadsheet of team totals using everyones data here, get a nice pool and average it out... If anyone is interested.

please do, i'd be very interested!

 

[s1bbald]

I am including Jack. He's in Tier 4.

Better get some sleep before I put my bets on

 

[AjsGuns]

Would Consider chucking lids in tier 4 is paying $6 and could knock out Voldt according to tallys on here, i have Voldt 2 clear of him.

 

[AjsGuns]

Leaderboard

26-Ablett
24-Swan
23-Hodge
21-Judd
20-Pendles
18-Sandilands

Adel: 12-Thompson, 9-Douglous, 7-Tippet
Port: 10-Boak, 6-Cassisi, Shultz, Kornes
WCE: 7-Priddis, 5-NicNat
Freo: 18-Sandi, 16-Barlow, 10-Pavlich
Bris: 15-Brown, 8-Brennan,Risky
Syd: 14-Bolton, 12-Jack, 10-Goodes
Geel: 26-Ablett, 17-Chapman, 16-Bartel
Coll: 24-Swan, 20-Pend, 13-Didak
Saints: 17-Goddard, 16-NDS, 15-Montagna
WBD: 15-Gia, 12-Boyd, 11-Cooney
Carl: 21-Judd, 7-Betts, 6-Simpson
Hawks: 23-Hodge, 9-Lewis, 8-Mitchell
Rich: 11-Riewoldt, 10-Tuck, 8-Delideo
Melb: 15-Green, 11-Sylvia, 6-Moloney
North: 13-Harvey, 10-Swallow, 7-Wells
Ess: 8-Watson, 6-Hille, 4-Stanton


Some of my results reflect consensus and some dont.

Mind a breakdown for Bolton?

 

[mike262]

Rd4. -2
Rd6. -2
Rd11. -3
Rd12. -2
Rd14 -2
Rd16 -1
Rd21. -2

Looking back on the stats he seemed to get a lot of handballs in these games. could have overestimated his influence in these games.

 

[sgnl00]

How the project currently stands:

Note the averages are way below values as I have set sample size to 10 for now (yes, I know I can just get excel to average the numbers, but I have done some weighted values), but if you compare them to others in the team, it is accurate.

Weighted and Weighted(5x) are just little extras I have put in which give more value to BK's vote tally. Personally, I'd still stick with total averages for everyone, but some people particularly like BK's tallys

Weighted - 2x influence, Weighted(5x) - 5x influence. (For BK tally)


Any hints, suggestions, etc, please tell me.

Need more data!

edit: 4x should be 5x.

 

[s1bbald]

Mate, that is amazing work! Thanks heaps!

 

[mike262]

Awesome work do u have a screen of remaining 4 teams?

 

[sgnl00]

Awesome work do u have a screen of remaining 4 teams?

Here's all 16:

Averages still wont be 'correct' until I at least get 10 sets of tallys, but the averages in bold under each team are still correct relative to each player (i.e. a 16 might eventually get scaled to ~22, 14 to ~19)..

 

[foxy_dal]

I'll add in the votes from mine that you don't have.

Pavlich: 8
Bartel 14:
Cassisi: 6
Montagna: 14
Hanneberry: 9
Naitanui: 3
Griffin: 9

Possibly may need these 2 as well
Tippet: 4
Rischitelli: 6

Should make for interesting reading after a few more leaderboards are posted.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

WTS's Finalised Most Team Votes:

Adelaide
S. Thompson (14), R. Douglas (9), S. Goodwin (6), G. Johncock (5)

Brisbane
J. Brown (12), M. Rischitelli (8), J. Brennan (7), S. Black (7)

Carlton
C. Judd (25), M. Murphy (7), E. Betts (6), K. Simpson (5)

Collingwood
S. Pendlebury (24), D. Swan (19), A. Didak (8), L. Ball (7)

Essendon
J. Watson (14), N. Lovett-Murray (5), L. Jetta (4), D. Ryder (3)

Fremantle
M. Barlow (15), A. Sandilands (13), S. Hill (8), M. Pavlich (7)

Geelong
G. Ablett (26), J. Selwood (20), J. Bartel (16), P. Chapman (13)

Hawthorn
L. Hodge (22), S. Mitchell (13), L. Franklin (9), B. Sewell (6)

Melbourne
C. Sylvia (11), B. Green (10), B. Moloney (8), A. Davey (5)

North Melbourne
A. Swallow (17), B. Harvey (15), D. Wells (8), L. Anthony (4)

Port Adelaide
T. Boak (14), D. Cassissi (9), D. Rodan (8), K. Cornes (6)

Richmond
B. Deledio (9), J. Riewoldt (8), S. Tuck (6), C. Newman (4)

St. Kilda
L. Hayes (21), B. Goddard (14), L. Montagna (14), N. Dal Santo (13)

Sydney
A. Goodes (15), K. Jack (13), J. Bolton (10), D. Hannebery (9)

West Coast
M. Priddis (8), M. LeCras (6), D. Cox (4), J. Kennedy (3),

Western Bulldogs
M. Boyd (16), A. Cooney (15), D. Giansiracusa (12), D. Cross (10)

 

[AjsGuns]

awseome work sgnl you made a mistake with St.Kilda though AG gave Hayes 19 votes not 22 votes.