Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[GoodesStuff]

Selwood (7.50), Judd (3.75) and Barlow (181.00) are more than generous top 5 odds from Sportingbet.

It seems the maximum payout is 10000.00 as I could only get 55.00 on Barlow at the 181.00. I don't think he'll be top five, but if he polls as if recognised from round one, I have him on a maximum 21 votes. It's unlikely he'll poll 'well', but even the mid teens could see him at least tie for fifth.

Then put 55 on him on 1 bet then 55 on him on another bet etc. etc.

You can still win more than $10 000, so as long it is not in the same bet.

 

[Thursfieldness]

Then put 55 on him on 1 bet then 55 on him on another bet etc. etc.

You can still win more than $10 000, so as long it is not in the same bet.

This was the first thing I did and it came up with "'exception' maximum market stake (0.00) exceeded"

I've tried many times since and it apparently cannot be done.

 

[Monte Carlo]

Has anyone in Melbourne been to:
Duke of Wellington Hotel 146 Flinders Street Melbourne
Bells Hotel 157 Moray Street South Melbourne

and know if they are quiet and peaceful for me to sit there for an hour and do bets? Am not liking the idea of going to Crown or a TAB in the city if I have heaps of bets to do. And how does the card system work if I don't use a machine. Thanks if anyone knows.


Oh and Judd and Selwood are good odds from Sportingbet. TAB will have a top 5 market though if you can be bothered waiting, doubt odds will be that good though.

Athomas the duke of wellington is not there anymore. the tab locator online is wrong.

the tab on cnr of william st and collins st is fairly quiet, and has 3 terminals so people wont get pissed of if they want to bet on the races.

i have said before the quickest way to do multis is to get the tab sportsbet numbers from the web for each leg of multi and create a list of the bets you want to put on. much like the JUDD/THOMPSON/BROWN/WATSON everyone is writing but with numbers instead 12354/16234/19842/10149 etc. then when you're at the terminal, select the multibet mode and key them in one after the other with the "find sportsbet number"

in relation to the manual cards, you once again need the sportsbet numbers.
top of card you cross off box of how many legs the multi is (2-10)

then for each leg you cross off the boxes to create the sportsbet number
eg sportsbet no. 17286

0(1)23456789
0123456(7)89
01(2)3456789
01234567(8)9
012345(6)789


hope that helps

 

[Thursfieldness]

Betfair have a 'team of the winner' market and the following head to heads:

Ablett v Hodge
Ablett v Swan
Chapman v Montagna
Goddard v Hodge
Hayes v J Selwood
Hodge v Swan
J Riewoldt v N Riewoldt
Judd v Pendlebury

They're empty markets at the moment, but the less popular picks could offer some value.

 

[Athomas]

Thanks Monte Carlo, you are an absolute legend!

 

[daleo83]

Hey guys, does anyone really think that stanton is any threat at all to watson winning the essendon votes?? I see that Watson is an anchor for most of your multis..

 

[FootyStar#1]

Betfair have a 'team of the winner' market and the following head to heads:

Ablett v Hodge
Ablett v Swan
Chapman v Montagna
Goddard v Hodge
Hayes v J Selwood
Hodge v Swan
J Riewoldt v N Riewoldt
Judd v Pendlebury

They're empty markets at the moment, but the less popular picks could offer some value.

wow they're some tight h2h's, only one i would be fairly confident with would be hodge over goddard

 

[sgnl00]

Hey guys, does anyone really think that stanton is any threat at all to watson winning the essendon votes?? I see that Watson is an anchor for most of your multis..

Winderlich is as much a threat as Stanton... Which is to say, not much.

 

[echelon22]

Don't do it mate, you will be handing your money to sportingbet on a platter.

I'm with Thursfieldness I don't think it's completely outlandish. Barlow's best case tally (18 in my count) is right up there with the low end of my ranges for Swan, Pendlebury, Judd and Selwood.

Won't be committing a large chunk of my overall outlay by any means but I don't think he's without a hope

I wish I had the capital to throw into Betfair, you can lay him off between $46 and $50 there

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

In WA are they not allowing "multis" on the team votes ?? Is it only for other states

Is this just for Tab or for all betting markets??

 

[sgnl00]

In WA are they not allowing "multis" on the team votes ?? Is it only for other states

Is this just for Tab or for all betting markets??

VIC TAB doesn't have team odds yet, no team multi's on Centrebet.

 

[lions_den]

Does anyone remember if unitab offered team vote multi's last year?

Yes they did, groups and h2h aswell.

 

[Monte Carlo]

i am really keen to hear thoughts on jobe again. i know its been done do death, but it is commonly spoken on here that people tread warily with the teams at the bottom end of the ladder. essendon only won 7 games for the year, and if a couple of votes dont come as planned, the essendon count could become very close i feel.

i bring up the rd 17 game against essendon where people gave job 3 after essendon won by 3 and he had 38 touches and kicked 2 goals. yet most of his touches came about in the 1st half. would the umpires more easily remember winderlichs critical goal assist in the last quarter including his 27 touches, or andrew swallows goal in the last quarter aswell as 15 tackles amongst 27 touches for the game.

just want to create some discussion because most people have him as an anchor for multis, but with a couple unexpected umpire voting decisions could others get close or even pip jobe for the bombers??

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Ill just add a few thoughts on the brownlow this year, however i have not watched alot of games as past years and have not looked through who has been best ect or stats.

All the talk on here seems to be that Judd, Selwood and Pendles are good bets and i couldnt agree more. I dont think Ablett will poll that well this year. He has been a very angry man and had his goes at the umpires alot more. We all know this doesnt get you votes. Look at Hodge, cornes bros ect who have struggled to poll in past.

It will be interesting to see how Hodge polls, i think he will either win the charlie fairly convincily or not go close again. We will know pretty early on. This year ive noticed that he has been have a joke or two with the umpires and not giving them as much of a spray as he has in the past. He also has had some big last quarters which we all know are noticed the most.

If i could bet on most team votes i would certainly lock in Sylvia for Melbourne.

I think Lenny Hayes will win the 2010 brownlow, has had his best season IMO and Montagnas, Goddards are still yet to prove themselves as brownlow pollers and Riewoldt has missed so many games.

 

[bisazc887]

Probably had second thoughts after all the emails and requests theyve had and decided against it hope not

 

[AjsGuns]

Boak into $4 fuming!
i wonder if they read this thread? im prob paranoid but seriously...

 

[Brownlow King]

I just went over Ablett's tally again and gee he finished the year off well.

 

[bombersaway]

has anyone in melbourne been to:
Duke of wellington hotel 146 flinders street melbourne
bells hotel 157 moray street south melbourne

and know if they are quiet and peaceful for me to sit there for an hour and do bets? Am not liking the idea of going to crown or a tab in the city if i have heaps of bets to do. And how does the card system work if i don't use a machine. Thanks if anyone knows.


Oh and judd and selwood are good odds from sportingbet. Tab will have a top 5 market though if you can be bothered waiting, doubt odds will be that good though.

just walk into the tab grab a handful of multi cards have your codes with you or sit infront of the computer fill em out then back to the tab and pump em through

 

[benny_795]

I just went over Ablett's tally again and gee he finished the year off well.

I would have to agree with this.....

Gazza has finished the last few games with 30+ possessions and numerous goals against his name.

Gary for the Brownlow!!!!

Benny

 

[FootyStar#1]

i am really keen to hear thoughts on jobe again. i know its been done do death, but it is commonly spoken on here that people tread warily with the teams at the bottom end of the ladder. essendon only won 7 games for the year, and if a couple of votes dont come as planned, the essendon count could become very close i feel.

i bring up the rd 17 game against essendon where people gave job 3 after essendon won by 3 and he had 38 touches and kicked 2 goals. yet most of his touches came about in the 1st half. would the umpires more easily remember winderlichs critical goal assist in the last quarter including his 27 touches, or andrew swallows goal in the last quarter aswell as 15 tackles amongst 27 touches for the game.

just want to create some discussion because most people have him as an anchor for multis, but with a couple unexpected umpire voting decisions could others get close or even pip jobe for the bombers??

I'm an Essendon supporter and ive watched every bombers game this year and like to think i'm quite impartial. I ended up with Watson on 11 and Winderlich on 7. I am absolutely certain that the winner will come from between these two.

I haven't considered Watson a lock because as you say, Essendon just hasn't won enough games. Stanton has been terrible and as someone has said previously his stats in so many games are terribly deceiving. Deep marks and switches across the defensive 50 were his specialty this season, he has no hope.

I am slightly concerned about Winderlich due to his great polling last year and his often damaging short bursts of speed. If Winderlich was to snatch 3 votes in round 6 against hawthorn or poll a combined 3 or more votes in rounds 9/10 then i would be worried. He is pretty good value by the way. Id says the chances of each winning are Watson 80%, Winderlich 40%.

 

[benny_795]

I just went over Ablett's tally again and gee he finished the year off well.

I would have to agree with this.....

Gazza has finished the last few games with 30+ possessions and numerous goals against his name. This would give him perhaps 5 BOG in 9 or 10 games. Almost there!!!!!

Gary for the Brownlow!!!!

Benny

 

[twarby]

I just went over Ablett's tally again and gee he finished the year off well.

i refuse to look at it cause i will break my laptop

i seriously think its Abletts medal unless he is marked harshly and 22-23 can win it.

i think how players vote the year after winning a medal is a myth... half suffer the brownlow curse and no player has come close to GAJ impact he can have on games.

im thinking about chucking a small amount on Ablett into Geelong just to get something back for the winner.. 10/1 odds is still quite good odds for a sporting event.

the 2 games people have been discussing today seem to be melb vs lions (1st time) and queens bday.

My votes for those games
Trengove
Sylvia
Black

queens bday i went to this one when i was in melbourne and decided to give votes without sussing stats etc

Maloney
Swan
Dick

not sure on Dick, i remember him standing out alot for some reason.

 

[carpsi]

I just went over Ablett's tally again and gee he finished the year off well.

I totally agree. 5-6 votes in the final 2 rounds may have given him back to back medals.
I also feel Kieran Jack is a massive chance to win Swans most votes. I understand he is an unknown to the umpires but he does stand out. He is quick, breaks the lines and has a punishing left boot. He may have a minimum 10 votes in the last month of footy IMO.
BK what is your tally for the swans?

 

[twarby]

just walk into the tab grab a handful of multi cards have your codes with you or sit infront of the computer fill em out then back to the tab and pump em through

i did this last year and seriously it was the most frustrating thing ive ever done.. felt like school work..
Athomas why dont you like the idea of opening an account?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Still looking for a solid system after this weekends game through all my plans out the window!
Am thinking of something like this at the moment. Obviously I will have much more on the Locks / Semi Locks bets than the bets involving value players. It would be nice to get some of them up though.

Locks: Judd / Watson / Thompson
Semi Locks: Riewoldt / Brown / Hayes / Boak
Value: Jack / Pendles / Selwood / Barlow

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Boak

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Hayes
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Boak
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes / Boak

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Hayes / Boak

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Jack
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Pendles
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Selwood
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Barlow

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Jack / Pendles
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Jack / Selwood
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Jack / Barlow
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Pendles / Selwood
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Pendles / Barlow
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Selwood / Barlow

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Hayes / Jack
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Boak / Jack
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes / Boak / Jack

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Hayes / Pendles
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Boak / Pendles
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes / Boak / Pendles

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Hayes / Selwood
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Boak / Selwood
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes / Boak / Selwood

Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Hayes / Barlow
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Brown / Riewoldt / Boak / Barlow
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes / Boak / Barlow


Comes out to 29 bets...
Thoughts???