Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[AjsGuns]

BK (or anyone) what do you have S Thompson on? and what games do you have him polling in?

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

BK (or anyone) what do you have S Thompson on? and what games do you have him polling in?

After this round I have him leading the Adelaide count on 11 votes, with Douglas the next best on 7.

Prior to this round I was a little shaky in using Thompson as a possible anchor in some of my prospective multis, but with now what I percieve to be a little buffer room i'm now a little more confident he'll get up for the Crows.

Breakdown:

Round 11 - 2 votes.
Round 14 - 3 votes.
Round 15 - 3 votes.
Round 19 - 1 vote.
Round 21 - 2 votes.

 

[Brownlow King]

BK (or anyone) what do you have S Thompson on? and what games do you have him polling in?

I reckon that he is a big chance to poll in rounds 7,9,11,14,15,17,19,21 and will be on around 12.

 

[EFL Boy]

Can somebody give me a percentage breakdown of how much the anchors, semi-anchors etc. will be used in your multis with most team votes?

 

[FootyStar#1]

BK (or anyone) what do you have S Thompson on? and what games do you have him polling in?

For S Thompson:

rd 7: 1 vote
rd 11: 3 votes
rd 14: 3 votes
rd 15: 2 votes
Chances in rd 17 and 18
rd 19: 1 votes
rd 21: 2 votes

Total 12 votes

Does anyone think that Pearce has a slight chance of taking ports?

I have him polling in

rd 6: 1 votes
rd 7: 3 votes
rd 11: 1 votes
rd 13: 2 votes (Unconfident)
rd 17: 2 votes
rd 18: 2 votes (Unconfident)

Total 11 votes. Now i know that Pearce often gets very frustrated with the umpires and ive actually given him a few votes in losses which he must have done some flashy things. I think Cassisi will win ports although like Melbourne, it's pretty much a raffle between 3 / 4 players

 

[Rhino5]

Yeah fair call, I see a couple of you query why not Goodes. I just feel that at some stage the umps might stop lobbong votes to guys like Goodes. He will probably win Syd votes but J Bolton and Jack very rough chances to knock him over. Jack is the type who could poll well.

Personally, I think Jack is a great chance to finish with more votes than Goodes and I'll be including him in a couple of multis for value. I wouldn't feel at all comfortable using Goodes as an anchor this year.

Similar situation I think with Swallow/Harvey at the Roos. I reckon if you just blindly use Boomer and Goodes as anchors, there's a decent chance of getting burned.

 

[AjsGuns]

For S Thompson:

rd 7: 1 vote
rd 11: 3 votes
rd 14: 3 votes
rd 15: 2 votes
Chances in rd 17 and 18
rd 19: 1 votes
rd 21: 2 votes

Total 12 votes

Is anyone think that Pearce has a slight chance of taking ports?

I have him polling in

rd 6: 1 votes
rd 7: 3 votes
rd 11: 1 votes
rd 13: 2 votes (Unconfident)
rd 17: 2 votes
rd 18: 2 votes (Unconfident)

Total 11 votes. Now i know that Pearce often gets very frustrated with the umpires and ive actually given him a few votes in losses which he must have done some flashy things. I think Cassisi will win ports although like Melbourne, it's pretty much a raffle between 3 / 4 players

Cheers everyone for ur S Thompson tallys i also have him on 11 (only gave him 1 for this Round alot of you guys gave him 2), was just curious as to others as i had a few "Iffy" games next to him and have Douglas higher than most of you (8).

Re: Pearce
He would have to be a shot would be a raffle between pearce/cassisi/boak/rodan/kornes. Im favouring Cassisi then Boak then Rodan, With Kornes/Pearce just behind them

R13 i gave Pearce 0
R 18 i gave Pearce 2 (could get 3 was amazing)

R7 - He was clear BOG - 3
R 6 - 0
R 11 - 0
R 17 - 1

Total - 6 with a potential of 7-8, cant see him winning when you add in his attitude towards umpires etc, defo a shot though.

 

[Effes]

Pearce could easily get 3 today IMO given he was quite damaging with his possessions.

On the overall count - if Swan gets the votes he deserves then he'll piss it in, but if he doesn't then it's very hard to call.

 

[Effes]

Can somebody give me a percentage breakdown of how much the anchors, semi-anchors etc. will be used in your multis with most team votes?

Hard to say without seeing individual odds - TAB may be vastly different to CB.

 

[Effes]

Someone mentioned this man in the other thread

I think he is a massive chance to win the Dogs votes and is incredible value however makes the Dogs too hard to call...so I think it's definitely worth having a little nibble (pending odds) on him to win their count. Has taken his game to another level this year and IMO has had some games where he'll get the 3 over other fancied teamates (Cooney)

 

[AjsGuns]

Pearce could easily get 3 today IMO given he was quite damaging with his possessions.

On the overall count - if Swan gets the votes he deserves then he'll piss it in, but if he doesn't then it's very hard to call.

Mind sharing ur votes for that game? prob the most important game for alot of us in terms of multis.
as for the WBD i have Cooney 2 ahead of Boyd with Griff and Gia breathing down Boyds neck.

 

[Grimmjow]

I reckon that he is a big chance to poll in rounds 7,9,11,14,15,17,19,21 and will be on around 12.

Right Click -> View Image.

For Harvey vs Swallow

 

[Effes]

Pearce
Boak
Schulz

But Boak could easily get the 3.

Cassisi stiff as well as Bruce...Bruce chopped them up especially in the first quarter but not a lot of hurt factor - infact Scully was probably more effective than Bruce.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Leaderboard

22 - C.Judd, J.Selwood
21 - S.Pendlebury, D. Swan, G.Ablett
19 - L.Hodge
18 - L.Montagna
17 - L.Hayes, M.Boyd
15 - P.Chapman, A. Swallow

Top 3 at each club:

Adel: Thompson 12, Douglas 9, Johncock 6
BL: J.Brown 13, Rischitelli 10, Black 7
Carl: Judd 22, Murphy 9, Gibbs 7
Coll: Swan 21, Pendlebury 21, Didak 14
Ess: Watson 13, Winderlich 7, Hille 6
Frem: Barlow 14, Sandilands 12, Mundy 9
Haw: Hodge 19, Mitchell 14, Rioli 9
Geel: J.Selwood 22, Ablett 21, Chapman 15
Melb: Sylvia 9, Moloney 8, Davey 7
Port: Boak 12, Cassisi 9, Pearce 8
North: Swallow 15, Harvey 14, Wells 6
Rich: Riewoldt 9, Deledio 7, Tuck 7
StK: Montagna 18, Hayes 17, Goddard 14
Syd: Goodes 14, Bolton 11, Jack 10
WB: Boyd 17, Cooney 14, Gia 11
WCE: Priddis 9, LeCras 7, Naitanui, Embley 5

Have a lot of congestion in the 12-15 vote range, probably testament to how ridiculously consistent the game's good players are now.

 

[AjsGuns]

Few of next weeks games are going to be HUGE

Melbourne v North Melbourne
If NM Win and either Swallow/Harvey can get a BOG with the other not polling it will determine NM's team votes. Can Melbourne get up and Sylvia or Green get a BOG?

Geelong Cats v West Coast
Can Selwood get a BOG and take out the Brownlow? or will Ablett spoil the party for all of us and make us very,very nervous come Brownlow night.

Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Can Hayes get a BOG and have an outside chance for the brownlow? or will Goddard/Montagna take the BOG and make St.Kilda team votes a No Go Zone.

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Important in terms of team votes, Can goodes poll? and be used as a anchor? can Brisbane cause a upset and Black/JB steal votes?

Hawthorn v Collingwood
Huge, Huge game, can Swan get votes and almost close the door on the 2010 charlie or will Pendles spoil his party and make us all some dough?




Will be watching that NM vs Melb game very carefully lets hope Swallow gets another BOG and puts away Harvey

 

[Grimmjow]

Adel: Thompson 12, Douglas 9, Johncock 6
BL: J.Brown 13, Rischitelli 10, Black 7
Carl: Judd 22, Murphy 9, Gibbs 7
Coll: Swan 21, Pendlebury 21, Didak 14
Ess: Watson 13, Winderlich 7, Hille 6
Frem: Barlow 14, Sandilands 12, Mundy 9
Haw: Hodge 19, Mitchell 14, Rioli 9
Geel: J.Selwood 22, Ablett 21, Chapman 15
Melb: Sylvia 9, Moloney 8, Davey 7
Port: Boak 12, Cassisi 9, Pearce 8
North: Swallow 15, Harvey 14, Wells 6
Rich: Riewoldt 9, Deledio 7, Tuck 7
StK: Montagna 18, Hayes 17, Goddard 14
Syd: Goodes 14, Bolton 11, Jack 10
WB: Boyd 17, Cooney 14, Gia 11
WCE: Priddis 9, LeCras 7, Naitanui 5

Like your count.

Very similar numbers as bolded to mine.

Bolded names i have as leaders.

 

[AjsGuns]

Agree with most of that bar Tuck, you have him leading? i would have thought voldt was a shoe in his 2 ahead of lids whos 3 ahead of Tuck on my tally, mind providing a breakdown of Tucks scores?

 

[Dime]

A little off topic but I'm just trying sign up to the TAB (in anticipation of the team multi's) and it seems that I can't sign up without entering credit card details and an initial CC deposit.. do they not accept deposit methods like bPay ala most of the other bookies?

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Like your count.

Very similar numbers as bolded to mine.

Bolded names i have as leaders.

Who do you have leading at Port?

 

[Brownlow King]

Few of next weeks games are going to be HUGE

Melbourne v North Melbourne
If NM Win and either Swallow/Harvey can get a BOG with the other not polling it will determine NM's team votes. Can Melbourne get up and Sylvia or Green get a BOG?

Geelong Cats v West Coast
Can Selwood get a BOG and take out the Brownlow? or will Ablett spoil the party for all of us and make us very,very nervous come Brownlow night.

Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Can Hayes get a BOG and have an outside chance for the brownlow? or will Goddard/Montagna take the BOG and make St.Kilda team votes a No Go Zone.

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Important in terms of team votes, Can goodes poll? and be used as a anchor? can Brisbane cause a upset and Black/JB steal votes?

Hawthorn v Collingwood
Huge, Huge game, can Swan get votes and almost close the door on the 2010 charlie or will Pendles spoil his party and make us all some dough?




Will be watching that NM vs Melb game very carefully lets hope Swallow gets another BOG and puts away Harvey

Very exciting !!! It really is a super important final round which could have a major bearing on the medal winner plus lots of the team votes.
It's also 4 weeks to go until the medal today which gives me goose bumps just thinking about it !!!

 

[brent-83]

3. J Brown
2.M Rischitelli
1. M Leuenberger

Power/Rich could sneak the 1, but im sure the 3 and 2 will go to Brown and Rischi in that order. Rischi still posses a slight threat to knock off Brown at BL although i think JB would have to be at least a 70% chance to win it. (FWIW i have him 4 ahead of Black and Rischi)

JB has 3 clear BOGS, and a 50/50 at a 4th BOG (round 2, Round 19 and Round 21 the clear BOGS Round 1 personally gave him the 3 but Brennan a chance for the 3)
And another game where he should Poll 1-2.

My breakdown of Brown is this..

Round 1 - 3 Votes
Round 2 - 3 Votes
Round 3 - 1 Vote
Round 10 - 1 Vote
Round 19 - 3 Votes
Round 21 - 3 Votes

Should have him wrap up Brisbane fairly easily I'd have thought.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Anyone think Hayes may be a risk to be used as a semi-anchor at this stage. Ideally, he comes out in Round 22 with a BOG or in the votes somewhere, but if he doesnt and Montagna polls again I believe he could be in some trouble at St. Kilda.

 

[Effes]

Anyone think Hayes may be a risk to be used as a semi-anchor at this stage. Ideally, he comes out in Round 22 with a BOG or in the votes somewhere, but if he doesnt and Montagna polls again I believe he could be in some trouble at St. Kilda.

St Kilda is wide open IMO.

Even NDS is a chance to win it; he is definitely over the odds.

Goddard should win it based on performance but the issues with him have been covered.

Montagna had to do exceptionally well last year to poll 3 votes so that's another hard one to pick.

 

[GoodesStuff]

As of right now this is how I see it;

Anchors - Watson and Judd (Use in 50-65% of multi's)

Probables - Thompson, Brown, Harvey, Hayes, Goodes (Use in 35-45% of multi's)

Value - Selwood, Pendlebury, Boak/Cassisi, Swallow, J Riewoldt (Use in 30-35% multi's)

Fourth Tier - Sylvia/Moloney, Boyd/Cooney, Barlow/Sandilands, Montagna (Use in 15-25% of multi's)

The percentages are pretty rough but that's just an idea of what I'm thinking at the moment.

I doubt I'll use Hodge at all - Even though he's a monty, he has such a bad polling history and he'll be so short I just don't think it's worth it.

I probably won't go anywhere near West Coast and not overly keen on using the Dogs much, either.

Just about every game will be important for me this week, though, so It'll be interesting. A few unexpected results might throw a spanner in the works.

Yeah I have been thinking of doing bets like:
Watson / Thompson / etc..
Watson / Goodes / etc..
Thompson / Goodes / etc..
^ So those three players in 2 out of every 3 bets, then Hayes as my next most used. However, I have my concerns now with Thompson/Goodes/Hayes even though I think all 3 will win. I therefore feel as though Watson should be used in more multis as he is more likely to win. I will also be using Judd in 100% of bets as he is an absolute moral for Carlton.

Will most likely stay away from West Coast, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Port, North Melbourne, Hawthorn.

 

[Pinnell]

The plus side of that, though, is that there is plenty of good value around.

The down side is that where there is value, there can also be more uncertainty.

TAB have opened up with Pendlebury the shortner into $11, Judd $15, Selwood $21 and Hayes $26.