Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[twarby]

I'd be very surprised if the TAB don't include him as an option.

As above, he could very well have 12 votes in the last month.

the tab will have the other player not listed option which could provide the much needed value with some teams what we need..
if they dont include Jack.. and the no player option is over 6 that would be great news.

i think they will include him however

Edit: just looked at TABs odds and even though theirs no numbers its ranked in order from last week, Jack is the 19th listed Swan on that list and right at the bottom.
he could very well not be listed for theirs

 

[Brownlow King]

Brownlow King
BigFooty Member

Geelong

Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Mount Eliza


Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjsGuns
BK any chance you can post your tally for Swan and what you have him on and what rounds you think he will poll in?

Believe it or not I have him on 29 !!! I'll pop up a breakdown when I get a chance. Naturally I can't see him as being on 29 but as I've said previously, if he polls he will blow them away.



Was this a typo BK?

By golly you do some good research !!!

My tally had Swan on 29 after R19 but have given him no votes since. The total of 25 that I posted tonight had me look at his 29 and I sliced off 4 due to poor polling history.
The other guys in my tally were exactly as I have them. My view is that I give them a total and then apply my own view of polling history / how they stood out etc.

 

[WeetBixKid]

Kieran Jack with 3 is absolutely delicious. Love this guy, played on him in the national schoolboys comp when I was a kid. Could I get some thoughts on him? Could really be this years massive value. I plan on covering him + Goodes in my multi's unless there's a good chance someone else from the Swans might knock them both off?

 

[carpsi]

By golly you do some good research !!!

My tally had Swan on 29 after R19 but have given him no votes since. The total of 25 that I posted tonight had me look at his 29 and I sliced off 4 due to poor polling history.
The other guys in my tally were exactly as I have them. My view is that I give them a total and then apply my own view of polling history / how they stood out etc.

Ok thanks for clarifying mate.
Unfortunately due to time constraints I am unable to watch many games therefore not being able to do my own count, so I rely a lot on what is said on this forum.
There are about 10 people in particular that I take notice of what they write, including yourself.
I greatly appreciate everyones time and hardwork throughout the year in doing thier own tallys and research and posting them up.
Goodluck everyone. Hope you all win a nice amount of money

 

[WeetBixKid]

I agree, Jack 3 so the Swans a no go zone now.

. Would be very interested in your Swans count. Who's the risk if you cover both Goodes & Jack? I'd imagine O'Keefe + Malceski would be next.. I haven't done a proper count, but from memoery they haven't had that many stand out games .... I guess all you need to be around the mark for Syd would be 12ish though ... very interested in your thoughts.

 

[AjsGuns]

I have Goodes and Jack both around the 15ish mark.

Blight said he thinks Didak will win the brownlow tonight
Ralph from the HS said Swan will get the 3

 

[RU486]

Got to love the media. Pumping some real value into the markets.

But what a disastrous round this has been in terms of team multi's. Alot more unpredictability now, which will provide some value but added risk. It may actually be profitable of the bookies to allow multi betting given some of the close finishes that we are expecting.

Leaderboard:

Judd - 26
Swan - 25
Ablett - 24

If Ablett can repel the winner hoodoo (I doubt it) I think he is a real threat but I'm far from convinced this will happen. Out of Judd and Swan for me, hoping for my sake that Judd can get up but it may well come down to this rounds performance.

 

[danielnajdek]

Swan could easily get 1 or 2 but not 3

 

[ackers29]

Did anyone catch the Freo / Carlton game? Seen the stats and looks like Judd / Pav and Sandilands is that about right?
Noticed alot have Watson up for Essendon, I believe he handballs too much and may be a big risk?

I have as certs
Bris - Brown
Swans - Goodes
Coll - Swan
North - Harvey
Hawks - Hodge
Geel - Ablett
Carl - Judd
Adelaide - Thompson

Dodgy
Ess - Stanton, Watson ?
Freo - Sandilands, Barlow, Pav
Rich - Reivolt / Delidio
West Co - Priddis, Le Cras, Selwood?
Port - Cornes, Cassisi, Boak?
St Kilda - Montagna, Hayes, Goddard ?
Dogs - Boyd, Cooney
Melb - Sylvia,Green, Bruce?

How am i looking?

 

[krayfesh]

Did anyone catch the Freo / Carlton game? Seen the stats and looks like Judd / Pav and Sandilands is that about right?
Noticed alot have Watson up for Essendon, I believe he handballs too much and may be a big risk?

I have as certs
Bris - Brown
Swans - Goodes
Coll - Swan
North - Harvey
Hawks - Hodge
Geel - Ablett
Carl - Judd
Adelaide - Thompson

Dodgy
Ess - Stanton, Watson ?
Freo - Sandilands, Barlow, Pav
Rich - Reivolt / Delidio
West Co - Priddis, Le Cras, Selwood?
Port - Cornes, Cassisi, Boak?
St Kilda - Montagna, Hayes, Goddard ?
Dogs - Boyd, Cooney
Melb - Sylvia,Green, Bruce?

How am i looking?

Harvey could be in trouble if Swallow has a great game.

I'm worried about Goodes now with Jack being awesome.

But I think Watson would have Essendon wrapped up.

 

[AjsGuns]

Did anyone catch the Freo / Carlton game? Seen the stats and looks like Judd / Pav and Sandilands is that about right?
Noticed alot have Watson up for Essendon, I believe he handballs too much and may be a big risk?

I have as certs
Bris - Brown
Swans - Goodes
Coll - Swan
North - Harvey
Hawks - Hodge
Geel - Ablett
Carl - Judd
Adelaide - Thompson

Dodgy
Ess - Stanton, Watson ? Your not serious? Watson is the safest Lock
Freo - Sandilands, Barlow, Pav
Rich - Reivolt / Delidio
West Co - Priddis, Le Cras, Selwood?
Port - Cornes, Cassisi, Boak?
St Kilda - Montagna, Hayes, Goddard ?
Dogs - Boyd, Cooney
Melb - Sylvia,Green, Bruce?

How am i looking?

Hill was clear BOG
Sandilands will get the 2 IMHO
Gave Judd the 1 but you could raffle it between a few players.

Players Bolded are NOT CERTS in your "I have as certs" section.

 

[AjsGuns]

Swan could easily get 1 or 2 but not 3

If Swan gets 2 you can hand him the Medal he was very ordinary today.

 

[danielnajdek]

He wasn't ordinary. You clearly didn't watch the game did you??

 

[Athomas]

Was dissapointed with Jack's BOG but I now see the positives. By copying all the multis I have with Goodes and replacing with Jack I'm 100% convinced I have Swans covered, and if Jack gets up I'll win 4x more.

 

[AjsGuns]

He wasn't ordinary. You clearly didn't watch the game did you??

I clearly did
Maybe you could start contributing instead of posting shit about everyones tallys etc? When you do nothing except leech off everyone else. such as accusing Athomas of being biased with Judd etc, go back to the bay.

I guess your sore you lost to Hawthorn.

 

[AjsGuns]

Was dissapointed with Jack's BOG but I now see the positives. By copying all the multis I have with Goodes and replacing with Jack I'm 100% convinced I have Swans covered, and if Jack gets up I'll win 4x more.

Agree with this logic, Huge fan of Jack and have been worrying about him for a while but IMHO i think Goodes will just get over the line.

if i was doing % i would have
Goodes 60%
Jack 35%
Bolton 5%

 

[popathon]

Good reading guys.
3 buddy
2 Cyril
1 swan/jolly/Lewis/Maxwell

watched it at the game and I'm happy to concede that I'm wrong on the 1 but for me Cyril and buddy really stood tall. Swan seemed to be free a lot but watching him closely I would put this down to hard work and apart from a few turnovers I'd give hm the 1.

 

[Outburst]

I clearly did
Maybe you could start contributing instead of posting shit about everyones tallys etc? When you do nothing except leech off everyone else. such as accusing Athomas of being biased with Judd etc, go back to the bay.

I guess your sore you lost to Hawthorn.

Really like your work Ajsguns dont worry about idiots like Danielnajdek who it would appear no one likes who just come in here this time of the year with no grasp on how the Brownlow works his just a troll appreciate all your work guys

 

[danielnajdek]

I clearly did
Maybe you could start contributing instead of posting shit about everyones tallys etc? When you do nothing except leech off everyone else. such as accusing Athomas of being biased with Judd etc, go back to the bay.

I guess your sore you lost to Hawthorn.

We'll see on Brownlow night.

 

[danielnajdek]

Really like your work Ajsguns dont worry about idiots like Danielnajdek who it would appear no one likes who just come in here this time of the year with no grasp on how the Brownlow works his just a troll appreciate all your work guys

mmm okay. name calling now.

 

[AjsGuns]

We'll see on Brownlow night.

Shall see, goodluck
lets just keep the bashing of peoples tallys/thoughts to ourself yeah? Thread has no disrepect to Swan he is a great player, but he just doesnt poll as well as judd/goodes etc.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Did anyone catch the Freo / Carlton game? Seen the stats and looks like Judd / Pav and Sandilands is that about right?
Noticed alot have Watson up for Essendon, I believe he handballs too much and may be a big risk?

I have as certs
Bris - Brown
Swans - Goodes
Coll - Swan
North - Harvey
Hawks - Hodge
Geel - Ablett
Carl - Judd
Adelaide - Thompson

Dodgy
Ess - Stanton, Watson ?
Freo - Sandilands, Barlow, Pav
Rich - Reivolt / Delidio
West Co - Priddis, Le Cras, Selwood?
Port - Cornes, Cassisi, Boak?
St Kilda - Montagna, Hayes, Goddard ?
Dogs - Boyd, Cooney
Melb - Sylvia,Green, Bruce?

How am i looking?

I currently have Swallow 4 or so votes ahead of Harvey leading into tomorrow's game. I'll generally be steering clear of North's team votes, and only include them in a few to capitalise on Swallow's juicy odds. Either way it's a line ball call between Swallow and Harvey.

In regards to Essendon, personally I see Watson as the safest lock behind Judd. Is expected to win their team votes quite comfortably, with very little competition.

I would tread very carefully with Goodes as I have a feeling it will be VERY close between him and Jack - especially given his BOG performance tonight. He is in no way a lock anymore IMO, and I will only be adding Sydney into a small handful of multis using Jack/Goodes variants to make the most of Jack's odds and provide cover in case Jack causes an upset.

I'm still not convinced when it comes to Swan, and as many were burnt by including him in their multis last year, i'd highly suggest to be very weary of him given his underwhelming polling performance. Possibly look at Pendlebury also to add value to a few of your multis in case he gets up, but in no way would I be using Swan as an anchor.

All the best.

 

[AjsGuns]

I currently have Swallow 4 or so votes ahead of Harvey leading into tomorrow's game. I'll generally be steering clear of North's team votes, and only include them in a few to capitalise on Swallow's juicy odds. Either way it's a line ball call between Swallow and Harvey.

In regards to Essendon, personally I see Watson as the safest lock behind Judd. Is expected to win their team votes quite comfortably, with very little competition.

I would tread very carefully with Goodes as I have a feeling it will be VERY close between him and Jack - especially given his BOG performance tonight. He is in no way a lock anymore IMO, and will only be adding Sydney into a small handful of multis using Jack/Goodes variants to make the most of Jack's odds and as cover in case Jack causes an upset.

I'm still not convinced when it comes to Swan, and as many were burnt by including him in their multis last year, i'd highly suggest to be very weary of him given his underwhelming polling performance. Possibly look at Pendlebury also to add value to a few of your multis in case he gets up, but in no way would I be using Swan as an anchor.

All the best.

Agree with basically all of that besides the last paragraph, Depends how much pendles is paying if he isnt over $3 i wouldnt touch Collingwood.

 

[WeetBixKid]

Was dissapointed with Jack's BOG but I now see the positives. By copying all the multis I have with Goodes and replacing with Jack I'm 100% convinced I have Swans covered, and if Jack gets up I'll win 4x more.

Exactly. From what I've read & in part seen, Sydney is a 2 horse race. Now, the beauty of Jack's BOG is it puts him in real contention to take out Goodes & win Sydney- he'll be paying similar to what Hayes did last year, $9-10, maybe even more (was 15-1 with ACTAB sports bet before the game). The added beauty is that with any luck Goodes' odds will go up slightly as well since he clearly missed the votes. Just cover Jack + Goodes in your multi's & you're laughing barring a pretty big upset from somone like O'Keefe.

 

[GoodesStuff]

They (Centrebet) dont even have Jack as an option , so Goodes wont go out if anything he will prob shorten because Bolton wont poll.

Yes they do. A Bigfooty poster who goes by the username 'Thursfieldness' requested Centrebet put Jack up as an option mid last week. They put him up at $16.