It’s not even that it’s retrospective - it’s that you’re living in fantasy land even suggesting it. It (picking any of those other 20-30 players you suggest) is simply not a thing that any other club would have done under any circumstance, were they to hold pick 1 that year.
The reality is that each year there is typically 1 or 2 players that would be genuinely considered with pick 1.
What I mean by that, is if you were to give any of the 18 clubs pick 1 and say “have at it”, they would all choose the same 2, maybe 3 players - in many cases, like last year, I think it would be unanimous, with all 18 choosing Harley Reid.
In Rayner’s year, I don’t think it’s an outrageous statement to say that a large number of clubs would have picked him - it may have been unanimous. I have zero recollection of the draft, but this is what Cal Twomey had to say in his phantom draft, where he had Rayner #1:
Rayner is the standout player in the pool and one who can change games in a matter of minutes, which has been why he has been touted as the likely No.1 pick for most of the year.
Pontificating about how we could have chosen a host of other players is absurdity - it’s simply not grounded in reality. It’s highly likely that every other club would’ve done the exact same thing as us.
You’d actually make a better argument saying taking Toby Wooller at 41 “cost us a flag” because Myers, Moore and Xerri ended up going in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s. That obviously batshit insane, but it’s more realistic than “you should’ve taken someone else at pick 1”.
And that all said… I still have no issue with our choice. He’s still 24, just put together a good couple of months with some patches of brilliance.
Been less impactful the last two, averaging 16 disposals, 2 scoring shots, 2 clearances, 3 inside 50’s. Convert his opportunities (kicked 0.4) and it’s not bad - not brilliant, but not bad.
If these are his down weeks though, that’s okay - he’ll fire up soon enough.
