Certified Legendary Thread Cam Rayner

[BringFevBack2021]

How am I smashing him for saying a number 1 pick in his 5th year should be going better than 10 possies and a goal a game?



68 games at an average of 11 touches a game and 0.9 goals is a disappointment for a no 1 pick no matter how you look at it. Maybe if he was tall, you could say he is developing but he isn't.




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ACL

 

[La Dispute]

Commensurate with their recovery? How so, when we’ve not seen them play post injury?

And I’m not sure how Marchbank’s draft position is relevant, he is a top 10 pick after all. Besides that, since when is a players original draft position relevant to their post injury expectations? Are you suggesting that because Patrick Cripps was taken at 9, that we should be easier on him and expect his recovery to his best to be longer?

Go easy on the kid, having friends at club land I know that ACL’s are incredibly impactful to a players confidence. Threads like this are garbage.

As in, when they've come back from injury there hasn't been any discernible difference in their formline.

We got Marchbank for a downgrade of first rounders - where he went with GWS is irrelevant. Cuningham we took with a late first. So far both of these guys irrespective of injury have showed the kind of talent you'd expect of the currency we gave up for them, either via trade or draft position.

Rayner went Pick 1, that comes with a whole different level of scrutiny.

You can say threads like this are garbage, but plenty of interesting discussion comes from looking at individual players and the way their careers are tracking. This thread was probably due in 2020 when Rayner played out his 3rd season without a whole heap of improvement from years 1 and 2.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

As in, when they've come back from injury there hasn't been any discernible difference in their formline.

We got Marchbank for a downgrade of first rounders - where he went with GWS is irrelevant. Cuningham we took with a late first. So far both of these guys irrespective of injury have showed the kind of talent you'd expect of the currency we gave up for them, either via trade or draft position.

Rayner went Pick 1, that comes with a whole different level of scrutiny.

You can say threads like this are garbage, but plenty of interesting discussion comes from looking at individual players and the way their careers are tracking. This thread was probably due in 2020 when Rayner played out his 3rd season without a whole heap of improvement from years 1 and 2.

This is a rabbit hole that I refuse to go down with you given that you’ve convinced yourself that your argument is unassailable.

I didn’t see anything wrong with Rayners game as a small forward, he attacked the ball and the carrier, ran the game out, kicked a clean goal and had an extremely high disposal efficiency.

I’m not going to respond further to this thread, other than to say “I told you so”

 

[Toump Ass]

Why are there Melbourne supporters in here smashing a number one pick when their club selected Watts? Didn’t that get old, having every nuffy smash Watts?

Yeah it really did get old tbh.

I get why people did it tho. Hanging shit on teams below you is really fun, lucky for me that’s every team because dees are the best.

Won’t last forever obviously, but sun is shining rn so farmer toump is gonna make nice big fat stacks of hay, in fact the biggest stacks of hay you ever seen

 

[La Dispute]

This is a rabbit hole that I refuse to go down with you given that you’ve convinced yourself that your argument is unassailable.

I didn’t see anything wrong with Rayners game as a small forward, he attacked the ball and the carrier, ran the game out, kicked a clean goal and had an extremely high disposal efficiency.

I’m not going to respond further to this thread, other than to say “I told you so”

Weird response.

It’s not unassailable, it’s a pretty standard opinion based on the pre-draft hype and projection for his career.

Hopefully he comes on and becomes more than you’re standard goal-a-game small forward, but this thread exists to look at what he’s produced so far v what the rest of his career will hold.

 

[My Tilly]

Pretty rough to criticize a young player who has returned from a serious knee injury. Not many come back from an ACL and display the same lateral mobility or athletic traits (quick first step and leaping) as what they did beforehand.

 

[00Stinger]

ACL

He wasn't doing anything before the ACL though





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[danster168]

but but Fritsch's goals were easy lol.

another 4 in his sleep.

 

[billyboutsis]

Pretty rough to criticize a young player who has returned from a serious knee injury. Not many come back from an ACL and display the same lateral mobility or athletic traits (quick first step and leaping) as what they did beforehand.

Christian Petracca?

 

[danster168]

To be honest, tonight showed that Spargo is so far ahead of Rayner. He's had 22 touches, 9 score involvement, 8 inside 50's and a goal. I mean has Rayner ever produced such a game?

 

[iBeng]

To be honest, tonight showed that Spargo is so far ahead of Rayner. He's had 22 touches, 9 score involvement, 8 inside 50's and a goal. I mean has Rayner ever produced such a game?

Rumour has it old Fagan is going to take him out back and put him out of his misery.

Or he could potentially be the star our VFL side is missing!

 

[danster168]

Rumour has it old Fagan is going to take him out back and put him out of his misery.

Or he could potentially be the star our VFL side is missing!

Well yeah, if he was on the dees list there's no way he comes close to our best 22. He'd be at Casey every week. Tonight showed why Ranyer doesn't get within a bulls roar of Spargo or Pickett.

 

[WillHayward]

Struggling to follow this thread because I have meteoric rise on block.

I can only assume he's saying ridiculous things as usual

 

[WillHayward]

ACL

Max King . pick 4. ACL. 21yo. 2 goals a game

 

[danster168]

Struggling to follow this thread because I have meteoric rise on block.

I can only assume he's saying ridiculous things as usual

Yep. Ed Richards is better than Fritsch. Rayner is better than Fritsch, Spargo, Pickett. Harry McKay isn't elite. The list goes on.

 

[WillHayward]

Rayner strikes me as someone who roots a lot and looks at himself in the mirror a lot .

 

[joe444]

I've seen enough of him; he's pudgy. My mother could shapen up and lose weight quicker than he has taken five years to squander.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Dylan Moore and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

Dylan Moore and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

If I'm being honest, the only thing that surprised me here is that Rayner is 10cm taller. Doesn't look it to the naked eye.

Interesting stat comparison though, considering we have two players from the same draft who play primarily forward. It's proof of the lottery of the national draft when a pick 67 is tracking along better than pick 1. May also be proof (much like Caleb Daniel

5

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

) that the 'heightest' mentality of AFL recruiters should die.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Max King . pick 4. ACL. 21yo. 2 goals a game

Not in his first season post ACL; I like you Will and I’m happy risk looking like a nuffy here if Rayner doesn’t come on. I just think he has way more attributes than the average player and will end up succeeding.

 

[danster168]

Not in his first season post ACL; I like you Will and I’m happy risk looking like a nuffy here if Rayner doesn’t come on. I just think he has way more attributes than the average player and will end up succeeding.

to be successful, he'd need 2 years to get fit. when i saw him running to the bench the other day, he looked fat. He'd also need to show that he has ball finding ability, something he has consistently shown to be very poor at. And he'd also need to show burst away from stoppage ability. He'd also need to show defensive pressure.
He really hasn't shown anything yet.

A poor mans colin sylvia (rip)

 

[danster168]

and pick 18 for Chuck Spargo, a disciplined small forward of no special note. . I love your faith in your players.

Not a good week for you hahaha. You have a knack for spotting talent lol

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not a good week for you hahaha. You have a knack for spotting talent lol

View attachment 1376427

You are pretty wide of the mark if you think I don’t rate Spargo. He is not a star and never will be, but he is a good footballer and he does a good job. For doing at least as good a job you think Rayner is useless.

Why I am posting this I don’t know. Would prefer to see you reacting to every exceptional situation like it was the norm and to every normal situation like it was the exception. Going to make entertaining reading over the course of time.

You rate Spargo the 18th best player from his draft. I rate his future value the 30th highest in his draft. Let’s not lose sight of the facts.

 

[danster168]

You are pretty wide of the mark if you think I don’t rate Spargo. He is not a star and never will be, but he is a good footballer and he does a good job. For doing at least as good a job you think Rayner is useless.

Why I am posting this I don’t know. Would prefer to see you reacting to every exceptional situation like it was the norm and to every normal situation like it was the exception. Going to make entertaining reading over the course of time.

You rate Spargo the 18th best player from his draft. I rate his future value the 30th highest in his draft. Let’s not lose sight of the facts.

what about overall value? so the previous 4 years and this year count for nothing?

 

[iBeng]

Guys please, this thread is to shit on A) Rayner, B) Brisbanes terribleness at picking Pick 1s and C) laughing at Brisbane for persisting with Rayner.

Take your other bargain super recruiting abilities to Bay13.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

what about overall value? so the previous 4 years and this year count for nothing?

Spargo has played 64 games out of roughly 90 for which he has been in the system and available. He averages:

11.5 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 2.5 tackles, 4.3 score involvements. 4 contested possessions and 8.2 effective disposals. You aint going to hang too big a hat on that no matter how much you want to. He is a decent small forward doing a good job in his role. He was Melbourne’s 5th best forward of 5 permanent forwards in their 2021 B & F count.

For some unknowable reason you rate him way above Rayner who has played roughly 68 of about 70 games for which he has been available, and averages:

11.2 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 2.4 tackles, 4.3 score involvements, 5 contested possessions, 7.6 effective disposals.


In other words their stats are as near to identical as you could just about get. The main difference are:

- Rayner played 30% of his matches in 2020 in reduced game times, whereas Spargo played only about 13% of his games that year,

- Rayner has been picked for nearly every game for which he was available, and Spargo has been picked for 70% of the games for which he was available,

- Rayner accumulated almost all his career stats(over 90%) at 18, 19 and 20 years of age. Spargo only accumulated roughly half his career stats at those ages, and the balance at ages 21 and 22, where Rayner has played only about 8% of his matches at 22 off an ACL and none at 21.

- Rayner has won an extra contested possession per game and you can see the effect on their respective ED numbers.


Once you adjust for all those things it is easy to see that Rayner has been a better performed player against these metrics.

But if you put Spargo up for trade right now, I would be very surprised if you netted above the value of pick 25 for him, I think you would be doing fine if you netted pick 30 where I rated his value. Spargo is tracking at roughly the level of a Jason Castagna in a similar role. Now I love the chaos boss, but Richmond would have never got near a top 20 pick for him. If you read the Richmond board about Castagna half of it is x rated written by posters who think he is shocking. He isn’t, like Spargo he is a decent enough small forward in a good team.

I would be very surprised if you couldn't find a club to offer a top 20 pick for Rayner.

But I presume you will be re-rating Spargo higher in your re-done 2017 draft after getting highly stimulated by his 20 disposal game appearing in an article.