Certified Legendary Thread Cam Rayner

[danster168]

Spargo has played 64 games out of roughly 90 for which he has been in the system and available. He averages:

11.5 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 2.5 tackles, 4.3 score involvements. 4 contested possessions and 8.2 effective disposals. You aint going to hang too big a hat on that no matter how much you want to. He is a decent small forward doing a good job in his role. He was Melbourne’s 5th best forward of 5 permanent forwards in their 2021 B & F count.

For some unknowable reason you rate him way above Rayner who has played roughly 68 of about 70 games for which he has been available, and averages:

11.2 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 2.4 tackles, 4.3 score involvements, 5 contested possessions, 7.6 effective disposals.


In other words their stats are as near to identical as you could just about get. The main difference are:

- Rayner played 30% of his matches in 2020 in reduced game times, whereas Spargo played only about 13% of his games that year,

- Rayner has been picked for nearly every game for which he was available, and Spargo has been picked for 70% of the games for which he was available,

- Rayner accumulated almost all his career stats(over 90%) at 18, 19 and 20 years of age. Spargo only accumulated roughly half his career stats at those ages, and the balance at ages 21 and 22, where Rayner has played only about 8% of his matches at 22 off an ACL and none at 21.

- Rayner has won an extra contested possession per game and you can see the effect on their respective ED numbers.


Once you adjust for all those things it is easy to see that Rayner has been a better performed player against these metrics.

But if you put Spargo up for trade right now, I would be very surprised if you netted above the value of pick 25 for him, I think you would be doing fine if you netted pick 30 where I rated his value. Spargo is tracking at roughly the level of a Jason Castagna in a similar role. Now I love the chaos boss, but Richmond would have never got near a top 20 pick for him. If you read the Richmond board about Castagna half of it is x rated written by posters who think he is shocking. He isn’t, like Spargo he is a decent enough small forward in a good team.

I would be very surprised if you couldn't find a club to offer a top 20 pick for Rayner.

But I presume you will be re-rating Spargo higher in your re-done 2017 draft after getting highly stimulated by his 20 disposal game appearing in an article.

hand selected stats i see we both know which stats you chose to conventiently leave out. stats that he is elite at

 

[The Wrecker]

Think Rayner shows how important it is to get rock hard fit before you start being a serious player. Rayner seems podgy and a long way off full fitness. Then again his endurance and consistency of effort was a knock on him in his draft year.
He is most likely suited to an inside midfield role but he really needs to step up his fitness.

 

[danster168]

Spargo has played 64 games out of roughly 90 for which he has been in the system and available. He averages:

11.5 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 2.5 tackles, 4.3 score involvements. 4 contested possessions and 8.2 effective disposals. You aint going to hang too big a hat on that no matter how much you want to. He is a decent small forward doing a good job in his role. He was Melbourne’s 5th best forward of 5 permanent forwards in their 2021 B & F count.

For some unknowable reason you rate him way above Rayner who has played roughly 68 of about 70 games for which he has been available, and averages:

11.2 disposals, 1.4 goals + goal assists, 2.4 tackles, 4.3 score involvements, 5 contested possessions, 7.6 effective disposals.


In other words their stats are as near to identical as you could just about get. The main difference are:

- Rayner played 30% of his matches in 2020 in reduced game times, whereas Spargo played only about 13% of his games that year,

- Rayner has been picked for nearly every game for which he was available, and Spargo has been picked for 70% of the games for which he was available,

- Rayner accumulated almost all his career stats(over 90%) at 18, 19 and 20 years of age. Spargo only accumulated roughly half his career stats at those ages, and the balance at ages 21 and 22, where Rayner has played only about 8% of his matches at 22 off an ACL and none at 21.

- Rayner has won an extra contested possession per game and you can see the effect on their respective ED numbers.


Once you adjust for all those things it is easy to see that Rayner has been a better performed player against these metrics.

But if you put Spargo up for trade right now, I would be very surprised if you netted above the value of pick 25 for him, I think you would be doing fine if you netted pick 30 where I rated his value. Spargo is tracking at roughly the level of a Jason Castagna in a similar role. Now I love the chaos boss, but Richmond would have never got near a top 20 pick for him. If you read the Richmond board about Castagna half of it is x rated written by posters who think he is shocking. He isn’t, like Spargo he is a decent enough small forward in a good team.

I would be very surprised if you couldn't find a club to offer a top 20 pick for Rayner.

But I presume you will be re-rating Spargo higher in your re-done 2017 draft after getting highly stimulated by his 20 disposal game appearing in an article.

"5th best forward of 5 forwards in the BnF count". LOOOOLLL. He came 13th overall. LOLLLLLL. talk about bending stats Since when does position mean anything when it comes to BnF finishes. lol. flawed logic. Can you please explain why you omitted this key bit of information, and why. Can you also explain why he finished so high in our BnF? Cheers in advance.

13th Overall in a premiership team is a great effort.

Then you mention that Spargo has been picked for 70% of matches compared to Rayners 100%. Wow, Sherlock Holmes here lol. It's probably nothing to do with being the best team in the competition. If Rayner played for Melbourne, he'd be behind Pickett, Neale-Bullen and Spargo so his % would be like 10%. What's your point? And Spargo would play 100% for Brisbane...so what's your point? If Spargo came 13th in our BnF, then he comes top 8 or 9 in Brisbanes.

You mention Castagna? You realise castagna has proven to be twice the player Rayner has shown to be? He was an excellent player in their premiership years. Richmond fans may be complaining now but it doesn't take away how important he was. So you have a simple case of recency bias. For some reason you focus on the future so much so that you completely disregard what a player has already done.

Can you also re-confirm your position that Harry Mackay isn't elite because he doesn't get goal assists?(i.e. the same number of GA as Fritsch) Cheers in advance.

 

[iBeng]

Can we at least agree he has the best nickname as "Pumba"?

Please dont associate that to his unfit weight you troglodytes.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Then you mention that Spargo has been picked for 70% of matches compared to Rayners 100%. Wow, Sherlock Holmes here lol. It's probably nothing to do with being the best team in the competition. If Rayner played for Melbourne, he'd be behind Pickett, Neale-Bullen and Spargo so his % would be like 10%. What's your point? And Spargo would play 100% for Brisbane...so what's your point? If Spargo came 13th in our BnF, then he comes top 8 or 9 in Brisbanes.

You’re right, it is absolutely nothing to do with being the best team in the competition.

Because in the season where you were the best team in the competition, he played all 25 games, so it was in the previous years- when you were a very long way from being the best team- where he was playing much less.

And if he was only getting 8 games a year in a bottom 10 side in 2019 and 2020, then he sure as shit wouldn’t have been playing 100% of games for a top 4 type team like Brisbane over that period!

 

[Thistle]

Rayner may never come close to the expectations of a number one selection but Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

at number three was the worst pick of the draft.

 

[danster168]

You’re right, it is absolutely nothing to do with being the best team in the competition.

Because in the season where you were the best team in the competition, he played all 25 games, so it was in the previous years- when you were a very long way from being the best team- where he was playing much less.

And if he was only getting 8 games a year in a bottom 10 side in 2019 and 2020, then he sure as shit wouldn’t have been playing 100% of games for a top 4 type team like Brisbane over that period!

He was only 19/20 so there will only be peaks and troughs in form. But yes, he would have. because if Rayner is being gifted games on 0 exposed form then Spargo would be getting gifted games off the back of 18 games if decent footy in his 1st year.

Rayner is basically Paddy Dow. A high pick who hasn't showed anything at afl level. The opportunity and hype will eventually subside to the point that no-one thinks about him as a high talent anymore.

 

[janty]

Think Bombers fans need to worry about Andrew McGrath

1

Andrew Mcgrath

Age

26

Ht

180cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

11.6

4star

HB

11.1

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

6.4

5star

MG

252.9

4star

D

22.7

5star

K

11.6

4star

HB

11.1

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

6.4

5star

MG

252.9

4star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

1.2

2star

T

6.4

5star

MG

219.0

4star

personally.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

"5th best forward of 5 forwards in the BnF count". LOOOOLLL. He came 13th overall. LOLLLLLL. talk about bending stats Since when does position mean anything when it comes to BnF finishes. lol. flawed logic. Can you please explain why you omitted this key bit of information, and why. Can you also explain why he finished so high in our BnF? Cheers in advance.

13th Overall in a premiership team is a great effort.

Then you mention that Spargo has been picked for 70% of matches compared to Rayners 100%. Wow, Sherlock Holmes here lol. It's probably nothing to do with being the best team in the competition. If Rayner played for Melbourne, he'd be behind Pickett, Neale-Bullen and Spargo so his % would be like 10%. What's your point? And Spargo would play 100% for Brisbane...so what's your point? If Spargo came 13th in our BnF, then he comes top 8 or 9 in Brisbanes.

You mention Castagna? You realise castagna has proven to be twice the player Rayner has shown to be? He was an excellent player in their premiership years. Richmond fans may be complaining now but it doesn't take away how important he was. So you have a simple case of recency bias. For some reason you focus on the future so much so that you completely disregard what a player has already done.

Can you also re-confirm your position that Harry Mackay isn't elite because he doesn't get goal assists?(i.e. the same number of GA as Fritsch) Cheers in advance.

OK yes let’s acknowledge here that Spargo, one of 10 players to play every game for the season, and one of 16 players to miss less than 4 games, finished 13th in an award that awards players points out of 10 each game - and therefore is skewed heavily in favour of players who play more games.

To finish 13th out of a field of 10 is a fair effort danster.

I doubt it would make a player worth pick 18 though. . But wait, he did finish 16th of the top 20 for average votes per game. Maybe 17th overall but I cannot find how many votes Bowey got because he wasn’t in the top 20 total vote getters.

Whatever, never mind. Go ahead and splooge over a player who probably finished 17th for average votes per game if you like.

 

[danster168]

OK yes let’s acknowledge here that Spargo, one of 10 players to play every game for the season, and one of 16 players to miss less than 4 games, finished 13th in an award that awards players points out of 10 each game - and therefore is skewed heavily in favour of players who play more games.

To finish 13th out of a field of 10 is a fair effort danster.

I doubt it would make a player worth pick 18 though. . But wait, he did finish 16th of the top 20 for average votes per game. Maybe 17th overall but I cannot find how many votes Bowey got because he wasn’t in the top 20 total vote getters.

Whatever, never mind. Go ahead and splooge over a player who probably finished 17th for average votes per game if you like.

yeah i'll take 17th in a premiership team. Better than rayner being what in brisbanes bnf? 25?

way not to answer my questions though. again. you're good at that.

So when shall we expect Rayner to become an AFL quality player? he'll be 28 and you'll still be talking about 'future value'. lol.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Pretty special goal I would’ve thought

 

[bungalow_bill]

Rayner stepping up

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Pretty special goal I would’ve thought

Brilliant goal assist on one of Bailey’s goals too.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Brilliant goal assist on one of Bailey’s goals too.

He’s certainly building, love to see it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

2. Cam Rayner is ready to launch​

After missing all of 2021 with a ruptured ACL, there were high hopes around Cam Rayner entering this season. The former No.1 draft pick has slowly built over the first five rounds without ever dominating, but against Gold Coast took a significant step with his most impactful performance yet. Rayner had 20 disposals, five marks and kicked one incredible goal. Although he missed a couple of gettable chances, his power through the contest and clean hands were all exciting glimpses of a man that could help propel Brisbane towards a premiership with his mix of midfield and forward minutes. – Michael Whiting

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

Something tells me danster168 ’s favourite source of player praise last week won’t be so favoured this week. Will be interesting to see where danster’s number 30 ranked player from the 2017 draft goes from here. Number 30.

 

[danster168]

2. Cam Rayner is ready to launch​

After missing all of 2021 with a ruptured ACL, there were high hopes around Cam Rayner entering this season. The former No.1 draft pick has slowly built over the first five rounds without ever dominating, but against Gold Coast took a significant step with his most impactful performance yet. Rayner had 20 disposals, five marks and kicked one incredible goal. Although he missed a couple of gettable chances, his power through the contest and clean hands were all exciting glimpses of a man that could help propel Brisbane towards a premiership with his mix of midfield and forward minutes. – Michael Whiting

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

Something tells me danster168 ’s favourite source of player praise last week won’t be so favoured this week. Will be interesting to see where danster’s number 30 ranked player from the 2017 draft goes from here. Number 30.

20 touches and a goal? Spargo did 22 and 1 goal last week mate. This is what good players do. I understand that you're not used to it from Rayner. But credit where credit is due. He's played a good game and I liked his goal. Now I want him to string it together for 3 years like many others in his draft class have already done.

 

[JasRulz63]

20 touches and a goal? Spargo did 22 and 1 goal last week mate. This is what good players do. I understand that you're not used to it from Rayner. But credit where credit is due. He's played a good game and I liked his goal. Now I want him to string it together for 3 years like many others in his draft class have already done.

First time in his career Spargo has had 20+ disposals isn't it?

 

[Cotchins Hair Piece]

Lazy.

 

[blueiris]

20 touches and a goal? Spargo did 22 and 1 goal last week mate. This is what good players do. I understand that you're not used to it from Rayner. But credit where credit is due. He's played a good game and I liked his goal. Now I want him to string it together for 3 years like many others in his draft class have already done.

Spargo Hasn’t come back from a knee injury think Cam is getting harshly judged this year has been patchy sure but it takes awhile for players to have faith in they’re bodies coming off knee injuries

 

[bungalow_bill]

First time in his career Spargo has had 20+ disposals isn't it?

22 V GWS was a career high

Rayner could quite easily have been 20/3 missed an easy one and gave one off.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Lazy.

You didn't watch that game did you ? He worked his backside off

 

[Cotchins Hair Piece]

You didn't watch that game did you ? He worked his backside off

One game won’t change what I wrote. He’s lazy.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Difference I see between early Trac and Rayner is skill. Petracca could always do some magic things but looked like a silver back gorilla running around with no tank. He'd look on fire for half a game and just lumber around the other half.

I honestly struggle to name anything Rayner has to his game other than being built like an ox. Doesn't create with the ball, doesn't find it, doesn't really have good goal sense... I'd be shocked if he had any sort of Petracca type level up.

Best I could imagine is a Dunstan type who can win the ball a bit inside but hacks every kick forward and doesn't really provide more than a big body... but wish the kid all the best and hope he proves me wrong

Petracca has size that Rayner doesn't have though.

Rayner is pretty much a slow small forward, with a great overhead mark.

You'd never hear anyone calling Petracca a small forward.

 

[My Tilly]

Petracca has size that Rayner doesn't have though.

Rayner is pretty much a slow small forward, with a great overhead mark.

You'd never hear anyone calling Petracca a small forward.

Rayner is 186cm and 94kg.
He's a big body.

Remember, it took Petracca a while to find consistency. Rayner is now at about that same stage of his career (70-90 games) where he will find consistency.
Is coming from a long way back too after the ACL injury.

 

[danster168]

First time in his career Spargo has had 20+ disposals isn't it?

Wouldn't have a clue. I don't measure a guy that plays forward pocket by how many 20+ disposal games he gets.