Can a team from 8th spot ever win the flag

[hamohawk1]

Apologies if there is already a thread on this

i remember back to mick malthouse comment about how the afl should not award mediocrity and i think 8th place still reflects this

normally the top team and one or two teams below it are substantially better than 8th (collingwood is much better than essendon with both sides at full strength)

while some would conclude it gives players finals experience does a team that finishes 8th really believe it can challenge for the final

i am a believer in miracles but i am also a realist.

thoughts?

 

[jaws1975]

It's all about revenue for the AFL. And no, it will never happen

 

[Hackenschmidt Clark]

Apologies if there is already a thread on this

i remember back to mick malthouse comment about how the afl should not award mediocrity and i think 8th place still reflects this

normally the top team and one or two teams below it are substantially better than 8th (collingwood is much better than essendon with both sides at full strength)

while some would conclude it gives players finals experience does a team that finishes 8th really believe it can challenge for the final

i am a believer in miracles but i am also a realist.

thoughts?

Yes the team in 8th position has lost games to Kangaroos, Fremantle, Melbourne & Richmond.

You tell me if you think they deserve to be lauded as finalists.

 

[themidlandmaster]

Well, no one's one it from outside the four except Adelaide, and they don't count.

If your eighth, there's just too many good teams above you and too many road trips.

 

[Ed_Gein]

Well you got to be in it to win it.

But i think if a top quality team was decimated by injury and/or suffered poor form early in the year made a late charge and snuck into the finals on the back of red hot form, anything can happen.

Probably a poor comparison, but i think Parramatta in 2009 were near the bottom of the table in the NRL before making a late season charge, snuck in at 8th and ended up making the grand final.

 

[FootyJunkie]

7th and 8th are merely there for show and experience and $$$.

In a word, no.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Yes a team can win the flag from 8th spot....

Once every 100 years or so it might happen.

 

[Squida25]

Yes a team can win the flag from 8th spot....

Once every 100 years or so it might happen.

This

 

[hamohawk1]

it would be something pretty special to see
but if you look at it match wise the 8th team has to play 4 taxing matches on top of a season
a top four team that has made it can have a week off, freshen up and have a major advantadge
in the days where players are sore for a while after their match it just seems impossible

 

[FootyJunkie]

it would be something pretty special to see
but if you look at it match wise the 8th team has to play 4 taxing matches on top of a season
a top four team that has made it can have a week off, freshen up and have a major advantadge
in the days where players are sore for a while after their match it just seems impossible

Thinking about it now, if it were to ever happen, would have to be a Vic side that went deep into September the previous year (won or lost GF last year, has finals experience) that had its major lull early in the season, but makes a late season charge for the finals (have form/momentum going in), plays at the MCG on atleast a semi-regular basis (big 4 side or MCG tenant) and is always on the same side of the draw with other Vic sides (they don't travel at all during those 4 weeks, play all 4 finals at the MCG).

It's a huge ask. Would be a hell of a story for a side if it did come true.

 

[dynamite_kid]

It is unlikely because if they lose one game theiyre out but if they win all theiyre games they win the premiership so maybe

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Yes the team in 8th position has lost games to Kangaroos, Fremantle, Melbourne & Richmond.

You tell me if you think they deserve to be lauded as finalists.

Beaten two of the top 4.

Whereas Carlton... uh...

 

[lamaros]

Same can be said for 5th.

 

[FootyJunkie]

Same can be said for 5th.

I'm a bit surprised that 6th have made it to a prelim twice, while 5th have never made it passed Week 2. (current finals system).

 

[red+black]

5th to 8th will never win a grand final.

What Adelaide did from 5th was under a grossly flawed finals system, and no team from 5th under the current system will ever go all the way.

 

[telsor]

7th and 8th are merely there for show and experience and $$$.

Yes a team can win the flag from 8th spot....

Once every 100 years or so it might happen.

Both of these.

For a team on the rise, the lower end of the finals is good experience.

Teams in decline, or who don't have the cattle to improve significantly are a waste of space. Trouble is, you can't really pick them with any certainty until later years.

 

[Higs]

If you look at it as just needing 4 wins straight it's entirely plausible.

A team could hit a patch of great form at exactly the right time.
Obviously the fixturing puts them at a disadvantage and most 8th placed teams don't have it in them but it could certainly happen

 

[blitzer]

I reckon it could happen but it would take a remarkable set of circumstances (no it won't happen this year). One situation where I could see it happening would be if a really experienced and quality side just had a really poor run with injuries/suspensions early on. Let's imagine that Geelong had been cursed with a bunch of 4-8 week injuries (or suspensions) really early on to all their key players Bartel, Corey, Selwood, Scarlett etc which leads to a horror start to the season. As the season goes on they get back their form and build up on some fitness, coming home strong maybe find a hidden gem or 2 amongst their rookies and hit the finals having won a bunch of games in a row. A scenario like that might just give a chance for an 8th placed team. Particularly if its a even year where there isn't a universally acknowledged dominant team. An example might be 1993.
I tend to agree that it's something that would probably only happen once a century but I wouldn't say never.

Also i've always found the argument that the 8th team probably won't win the flag so therefore it shouldn't be top 8 to be a really silly argument. It's kind of linking two things that are only peripherally related and making out as if its the only reason for the other existing. The whole finals 8 system is obviously geared towards the top 4 teams. The inbuilt second chance, the home finals, its all aimed at creating the best opportunity for the top teams (who have earned it) to win the flag. That doesn't mean that there is no role for 5-8 teams to play. They can shape the finals as well (even if they don't win it), also just because they a terrible chance of winning the flag, doesn't mean they aren't producing anything either. They may be laying the building blocks for the next dynasty, building up finals experience for a new generation of players or may just be on a hiding to nothing. The teams 5-8 are also a part of the unfolding drama that is the finals series and sure they may be minor characters now, but they may just have the leading role next year or the year after.

 

[Vince12]

If all competitions used the logic of this thread then the EPL would just be a penalty shootout between man utd and chelsea for the last 10 years and save playing the other 400 or so matches. Strangely sport doesn't have to have a reward or meaning to be worth watching. And hey if you never give up who knows what can happen

[YOUTUBE]4Z6GnUTVAF0[/YOUTUBE]

 

[Rabbit of Caerbannog]

Same can be said for 5th.

Especially considering 8th has beaten 5th more often than not since the AFL changed to the current finals system.

 

[lamaros]

If all competitions used the logic of this thread then the EPL would just be a penalty shootout between man utd and chelsea for the last 10 years and save playing the other 400 or so matches.

I don't think logic is your strong suit. The EPL doesn't have a finals system.

 

[Doss]

Especially considering 8th has beaten 5th more often than not since the AFL changed to the current finals system.

2000- Geelong 5 def by Hawthorn 8
2001- Carlton 5 def Adelaide 8
2002- Essendon 5 def West Coast 8
2003- Freo 5 def by Essendon 8
2004- Melbourne 5 def by Essendon 8
2005- North 5 def by Port 8
2006- Collingwood 5 def by Footscray 8
2007- Hawthorn 5 def Adelaide 8
2008- Adelaide 5 def by Collingwood 8
2009- Adelaide 5 def Essendon 8
2010- Sydney 5 def Carlton 8

So six times out of eleven seasons 8th has defeated 5th.

There was also that interesting stretch between 2002 and 2006 (bar 2004) where 4th defeated 1st every time.

On the other hand, 3rd has defeated 2nd only twice- Melbourne over Carlton in 2000 and St Kilda over Geelong in 2010.

6th has been defeated by 7th just once in eleven attempts- Melbourne's win over St Kilda in 2006.

 

[Vince12]

I don't think logic is your strong suit. The EPL doesn't have a finals system.

Yes but they have a winner - and for the last 10 years it has been Chelsea/Man utd besides a rogue Arsenal win

Maybe getting obvious inferences isn't your strong suit?

 

[lamaros]

Yes but they have a winner - and for the last 10 years it has been Chelsea/Man utd besides a rogue Arsenal win

Maybe getting obvious inferences isn't your strong suit?

All leagues have winners, that still doesn't make the EPL relevant to this thread.

 

[secondary]

All leagues have winners, that still doesn't make the EPL relevant to this thread.

I think you're missing the point to his original post.