Can Fyfe win the Coleman?

[Bucking Bronco]

Every year scrolling through Sportsbet's Coleman odds you see the usual 'Eddie Betts - $20' and roll your eyes.

No non-key forward has won the Coleman in at least 40 years, and for the longest time it hasn't really looked like a trend that could ever be broken.

But enter Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

, an uber prolific midfielder fashioned into a small forward, who proceeds to lead the competition in shots on goal in 2021. Theoretically he has shown that someone not recognised as a key forward could win a Coleman.

But it won't be your standard small. It will be a player whose football nous is through the roof proven by their history as a bigtime accumulator of the ball when playing further up the ground which is then parlayed into being arguably the biggest threat in the forwardline when the ball is on the ground.

But where Greene would differ from other smalls is he also had the aerial presence of a key-forward - or at least very close to.

A player who could bridge the gap with key forwards by being able to make up for not having the utter dominance when the ball was in the air, by almost equally dominating when the ball was in play on the ground.

Watching the pre-season games, and knowing his history Fyfe seems to meet this rarely met criteria.

If his shoulders hold up, does he win the Coleman?

Does he win next year, or at some point before he retires?

Of course he could do what Gary Ablett Senior did, where he is regarded at the end of his career as an actual key-forward, who we just never knew was one until he was really played there.

 

[Boppo]

At $67-1 it’s worth a flutter. Looks to be free of any niggles and gets a full preseason. He seems to have the attitude of a sales rep facing the chop in the way he’s closing out every opportunity that makes it’s way into the f50.

 

[11kgm]

Bolton is my smokey, 43 goals 41 behinds turns that into 60 goals 24 behinds and he has the award

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Curnow could kick 80 this year wit another year of footy back under him.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Fyfe might kick the most behinds though.

 

[jim boy]

Of course he could do what Gary Ablett Senior did, where he is regarded at the end of his career as an actual key-forward, who we just never knew was one until he was really played there

GAS was averaging well over 3 goals a game before moving to full forward and had kicked plenty of bags over that time and was a noted goal scorer. Fyfe on the on the other hand averages around 0.8 goals a game and is not a noted goal scorer. That is a massive difference, even if you allow for the fact that GAS played at a time when scoring was at its highest.

Fyfe, at best, will be more like Patrick Dangerfield, dangerous enough, but not prolific. If he is paying $67 to win the Coleman, that is terrible value. The only thing I'd be interested in wagering this year is who kicks the most, Fyfe or Cotchin.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Fyfe???

No way!

It's either Dustee or Brookes partner.

 

[Cdog71]

Bolton is my smokey, 43 goals 41 behinds turns that into 60 goals 24 behinds and he has the award

That’s a 75% conversion rate.

Even Lockett and Loyd who scored from kicking over the mark never got over 66% I think or thereabouts.
Breust is a bit lower
Kicked 57-12 in 2014
Fritsch is a great converter and around 70% last two years but drops to near 60 for his career.

Don’t get me wrong I’d love it if Bolton did..but usually the Coleman winner gets 100 shots at goals or thereabouts.

Cameron or Curnow for mine, I don’t think Fyfe or Bolton will.

 

[HBFlanker]

Yes.

 

[11kgm]

That’s a 75% conversion rate.

Even Lockett and Loyd who scored from kicking over the mark never got over 66% I think or thereabouts.
Breust is a bit lower
Kicked 57-12 in 2014
Fritsch is a great converter and around 70% last two years but drops to near 60 for his career.

Don’t get me wrong I’d love it if Bolton did..but usually the Coleman winner gets 100 shots at goals or thereabouts.

Cameron or Curnow for mine, I don’t think Fyfe or Bolton will.

So, if we go by Breust around 70% 60 goals could see him winning the Coleman, even 50 will be putting pressure on the top 5 especially if Dusty is down there more, he will get weaker defenders.

 

[Purple Suit]

GAS was averaging well over 3 goals a game before moving to full forward and had kicked plenty of bags over that time and was a noted goal scorer. Fyfe on the on the other hand averages around 0.8 goals a game and is not a noted goal scorer. That is a massive difference, even if you allow for the fact that GAS played at a time when scoring was at its highest.

Fyfe, at best, will be more like Patrick Dangerfield, dangerous enough, but not prolific. If he is paying $67 to win the Coleman, that is terrible value. The only thing I'd be interested in wagering this year is who kicks the most, Fyfe or Cotchin.

With the same amount of games, Fyfe will destroy Cotchin with goals scored. They are different players and Cotchin as a forward at his age just isn't giving me anything to get excited about. Fyfe at least has great overhead marking and will be a beast when the footy hits the deck.

 

[DamoESP]

Can he? Yes.

Will he? No.

 

[Cdog71]

So, if we go by Breust around 70% 60 goals could see him winning the Coleman, even 50 will be putting pressure on the top 5 especially if Dusty is down there more, he will get weaker defenders.

It’s alotta goals but yeah I spose

 

[Rich01]

With the same amount of games, Fyfe will destroy Cotchin with goals scored. They are different players and Cotchin as a forward at his age just isn't giving me anything to get excited about. Fyfe at least has great overhead marking and will be a beast when the footy hits the deck.

Agree. Fyfe will kick 40+ this year.
Deserves a nice run at it injury wise too.

 

[The 747]

No

This comes around every couple of years, Ablett Jnr going to win a Coleman playing forward. Dusty to win a Coleman permanent forward. DeGoey to win a Coleman playing forward, Dangerfield to win a Coleman playing forward.

They never get anywhere near winning a Coleman. Also hard to split Fyfe and Danger as to who is a worse kick for goal.

 

[My Tilly]

Curnow will kick 70+ but Fyfe is going to have a great year up forward.

A lot of talk about Martin back to tip top shape but this guys slipped under the radar due to injuries the last couple of years. Always been a terrific marking midfielder.
The only reason why he won't get near the Coleman medal is he's far too unselfish and will give off at least 20 near and around the goals.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

No

This comes around every couple of years, Ablett Jnr going to win a Coleman playing forward. Dusty to win a Colement permanent forward. DeGoey to win a Coleman playing forward, Dangerfield to win a Coleman playing forward.

They never get anywhere near winning a Coleman. Also hard to split Fyfe and Danger as to who is a worse kick for goal.

Did you read what I wrote though?

Fyfe has a marking ability close to a key-forward, with a ground game that is likely comparable to that of a top small forward.

Only Greene has mirrored this and the numbers really do suggest, at least before Hogan started to get going again, that he could contend for a Coleman.

Neither Ablett Junior, Martin or De Goey (from what I've seen) can take a pack mark like a key-forward to save themselves. Dangerfield kinda can, but he never played pure forward like Greene has, and like Fyfe is about to, so that comparision doesn't really stick either.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Fyfe is zero chance to win the Coleman - his chances of playing 22-games are tiny..then even if by some miracle he played every game or close to it, he’s not going to return the 3-goals per game minimum required to win.

Dusty, Greene, Bolton or anyone else regarded as a small-medium forward are no chance either. The game is just too defensively focussed now for those types of players to kick regular little bags of goals.


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[Plugger35]

If they start counting points as goals he might be a chance.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Could certainly lead shots on goal. His accuracy will let him down IMO. I think it's King's year!

 

[The 747]

Did you read what I wrote though?

Fyfe has a marking ability close to a key-forward, with a ground game that is likely comparable to that of a top small forward.

Only Greene has mirrored this and the numbers really do suggest, at least before Hogan started to get going again, that he could contend for a Coleman.

Neither Ablett Junior, Martin or De Goey (from what I've seen) can take a pack mark like a key-forward to save themselves. Dangerfield kinda can, but he never played pure forward like Greene has, and like Fyfe is about to, so that comparision doesn't really stick either.

And a kicking ability that is close to a key-back. Toby Greene is an outstanding forward who kicks clutch goals for his team. Fyfe - on the career date - is not.

 

[Joao]

I recently heard someone say they got on him for the coleman at 200-1 and I thought, that's clearly overs. Even 100-1 is probably over. 67-1... I'm leaving that alone.

 

[Square Peg]

Fyfe is highly unlikely to win a Coleman, too many unusual events would have to align, but thread was still worth reading to see someone thinks Trent Cotchin

9

Trent Cotchin

Age

34

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

5.2

5star

D

19.0

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.5

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

4.3

5star

CL

3.5

4star

D

16.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.0

3star

will kick more goals than him. I needed that.

 

[The 747]

I recently heard someone say they got on him for the coleman at 200-1 and I thought, that's clearly overs. Even 100-1 is probably over. 67-1... I'm leaving that alone.

Good lord. Gamblers

 

[Coach_Required]

Fyfe is highly unlikely to win a Coleman, too many unusual events would have to align, but thread was still worth reading to see someone thinks Trent Cotchin will kick more goals than him. I needed that.

Who?

Trent will be lucky to see the season out.