Brownlow Can The Bont Bring Charlie Home

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Doggy Dan said:
Imagine we took Wines and Macrae at 5 and 6 instead of the gambling, philanderer…………just imagine!
Click to expand...
dogwatch said:
So here's the 2012 draft. Did we get it right? Wines was supposed to be under serious consideration by Dalrymple at the time and I think Macartney liked him because he could crack in.

View attachment 1240418

In 2015 I'd have said yes we nailed it without a doubt. Probably the same in 2016 but I was starting to have doubts.

Now without question I'd go 5 - Macrae then 6 - Wines.

Would I still want Macrae ahead of Wines? Yes, I would but I've got to say there's not much in it. Wines has had a fantastic year but over their careers Macrae has probably had better form. From almost the same number of games he leads Wines on most of the standard stats ... but not on CPs, CMs or scores. Before 2021 Macrae had 81 Brownlow votes from 159 games and Wines had 71 votes from 158 games. We may have got just as good a return if we'd chosen Wines ahead of Macrae, but either way both clubs did very well from that top 10.

The big fails in that top 10 were GWS (as usual) with O'Rourke and Plowman, Melbourne (Toumpas), maybe Brisbane (Mayes) and also Essendon (Daniher, who looked a rolled gold bargain and a 200 game player at the time, and did so until 2017).

We should probably be grateful that Melbourne and GWS were rumoured to have done a slimy deal so that the Dees could get Viney at pick 26. If they'd been forced to use pick 4 for Viney we could have been lured into taking Toumpas instead of Macrae. A sliding doors moment perhaps?
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Is Wines better now/had a better career than Stringer? Probably. He’d go higher in a re-draft.

Do we win 2016 with Ollie instead of Jake? I don’t think so.
 

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Think the order was fair enough. Wines had a great season, they won 16 or 17 games and are reliant on two players to get 30 touches a game. No surprise that he and Boak got virtually every three for Port apart from a couple of deserved Aliir Aliir 3s.

Everyone at the top got far too many votes though. All, including Bont, got 5 or 6 more than they should have.

Was very surprised at how poorly Macrae polled. He has polled better than Bont the last couple of seasons and was expecting him to steal quite a few votes from him but he just wasn’t getting anything.
 
Snarls Barkley said:
Think the order was fair enough. Wines had a great season, they won 16 or 17 games and are reliant on two players to get 30 touches a game. No surprise that he and Boak got virtually every three for Port apart from a couple of deserved Aliir Aliir 3s.

Everyone at the top got far too many votes though. All, including Bont, got 5 or 6 more than they should have.

Was very surprised at how poorly Macrae polled. He has polled better than Bont the last couple of seasons and was expecting him to steal quite a few votes from him but he just wasn’t getting anything.
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100% - Macca was robbed!
 
The brownlow is a dumb award, but that was the dumbest count ever. No one would take wines or his season over the other guys in the top placings.

Bailey dale 3 votes total after the year he had including at least a handful of ridiculously good games.
 
Could you imagine Adam Treloar & Josh Dunkley not playing the first few games
 
Doggy Dan said:
Imagine we took Wines and Macrae at 5 and 6 instead of the gambling, philanderer…………just imagine!
Click to expand...
We would have never slumped post GF and then been able to access Naughton and Smith. Probably would have drafted some spud other than Dunkley too because we had our inside mids sorted.
 
From the AFL website.

Incredibly they had Wines with only 19 votes. (I had to go to their full breakdown and add those last three myself just to get him onto the list.)

AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor

34 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
32 Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
29 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
26 Darcy Parish (Essendon)
25 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
24 Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
24 Sam Walsh (Carlton)
23 Touk Miller (Gold Coast)*
23 Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn)
22 David Mundy (Fremantle)
20 Jarryd Lyons (Brisbane)
19 Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)


Sportsbet odds

$3.25 Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)
$3.75 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
$4 Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
$6.50 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
$17 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
$26 Sam Walsh (Carlton)
$31 Darcy Parish (Essendon)
$34 Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs)

What lessons does this have for us?
(1) Remember in 52 weeks time that the AFL predictor is not a great guide. We could probably all do better ourselves with a little bit of homework.
(2) Always follow the money. It's faster, it's simpler and it's right far more often than the experts.
 
Our midfield is the strongest its ever been and the Brownlow being an award where limited votes are shared between a team's midfielders, Bont was always at a disadvantage and he still got 33 votes and came second!

Port only rely on Wines/Boak which is why we smashed them on the weekend.

Carlton only have Walsh since Cripps is always playing injured so he was always going to go massive. Most of us would still take Bailey Smith ahead of Walsh with what we have seen in finals.
 

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dogwatch said:
So here's the 2012 draft. Did we get it right? Wines was supposed to be under serious consideration by Dalrymple at the time and I think Macartney liked him because he could crack in.

View attachment 1240418

In 2015 I'd have said yes we nailed it without a doubt. Probably the same in 2016 but I was starting to have doubts.

Now without question I'd go 5 - Macrae then 6 - Wines.

Would I still want Macrae ahead of Wines? Yes, I would but I've got to say there's not much in it. Wines has had a fantastic year but over their careers Macrae has probably had better form. From almost the same number of games he leads Wines on most of the standard stats ... but not on CPs, CMs or scores. Before 2021 Macrae had 81 Brownlow votes from 159 games and Wines had 71 votes from 158 games. We may have got just as good a return if we'd chosen Wines ahead of Macrae, but either way both clubs did very well from that top 10.

The big fails in that top 10 were GWS (as usual) with O'Rourke and Plowman, Melbourne (Toumpas), maybe Brisbane (Mayes) and also Essendon (Daniher, who looked a rolled gold bargain and a 200 game player at the time, and did so until 2017).

We should probably be grateful that Melbourne and GWS were rumoured to have done a slimy deal so that the Dees could get Viney at pick 26. If they'd been forced to use pick 4 for Viney we could have been lured into taking Toumpas instead of Macrae. A sliding doors moment perhaps?
Click to expand...
And this gets me back to the Melbourne issue...

They did a back handed deal with GWS not to bid on Viney to give them a free Run at pick 4. The fact they took toumpas is beside the point. Even worse they passed on wines who I'm told was promised to go to Dee's with his childhood mate Viney.

Though could you imagine Melbourne today with wines instead of toumpas....

Going back to tanking in 2009.... Screw the demons
 
dogwatch said:
From the AFL website.

Incredibly they had Wines with only 19 votes. (I had to go to their full breakdown and add those last three myself just to get him onto the list.)

AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor

34 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
32 Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
29 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
26 Darcy Parish (Essendon)
25 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
24 Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
24 Sam Walsh (Carlton)
23 Touk Miller (Gold Coast)*
23 Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn)
22 David Mundy (Fremantle)
20 Jarryd Lyons (Brisbane)
19 Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)


Sportsbet odds

$3.25 Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)
$3.75 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
$4 Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
$6.50 Jack Steele (St Kilda)
$17 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
$26 Sam Walsh (Carlton)
$31 Darcy Parish (Essendon)
$34 Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs)

What lessons does this have for us?
(1) Remember in 52 weeks time that the AFL predictor is not a great guide. We could probably all do better ourselves with a little bit of homework.
(2) Always follow the money. It's faster, it's simpler and it's right far more often than the experts.
Click to expand...

This was always strange though, because the predictions are pretty solid for the rest of the top 10-12. Few short of Walsh’s total, Oliver and Steele a little high but otherwise almost right on the money. You’d actually have won some decent money on this by picking some good head to head bets and/or top vote getter on each team.

Where were Port’s votes going? Amon? Aliir? Houston? They were always getting 80+ votes so it was so strange to have Wines so low.
 
hutchy31 said:
Where were Port’s votes going? Amon? Aliir? Houston? They were always getting 80+ votes so it was so strange to have Wines so low.
Click to expand...

They have a group of people that watch the games and then do the votes. I think I followed a similar method as well which made me also under poll Wines (but not as much as they did).

With Port, in a lot of their wins they were up big by HT and Wines hadnt done much until then but after HT Wines would get a stack of the pill to finish the game on 30+ possessions. You could either give the votes to the players like Amon/Boak/Gray/Houston that dominated early to get the lead or Wines who had an overall better game even though it was in junk time. Opinion on BOG is very subjective, so I understand both the umpire's and AFL.com.au writer's decisions.
 
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glenashley said:
And this gets me back to the Melbourne issue...

They did a back handed deal with GWS not to bid on Viney to give them a free Run at pick 4. The fact they took toumpas is beside the point. Even worse they passed on wines who I'm told was promised to go to Dee's with his childhood mate Viney.

Though could you imagine Melbourne today with wines instead of toumpas....

Going back to tanking in 2009.... Screw the demons
Click to expand...
There has always been talk that Ollie was promised by a Melbourne based club that they would draft him if he was available at their pick and for that reason, his family never considered that he would end up at Port Adelaide. The theory was always that the team was Melbourne, due to the Viney connection as both boys were at primary school together in Echuca before Todd got a gig elsewhere & Jack went to school elsewhere. But I have always wondered if it was us instead as there was talk Dalrymple was keen on him too.
I was actively barracking for Ollie to come to us during the draft but wouldn’t trade him for Macrae now. Wonder if the Toumpas pick still sh*ts the Melbourne people, given what came in the next 3 picks…
 
Kermit said:
There has always been talk that Ollie was promised by a Melbourne based club that they would draft him if he was available at their pick and for that reason, his family never considered that he would end up at Port Adelaide. The theory was always that the team was Melbourne, due to the Viney connection as both boys were at primary school together in Echuca before Todd got a gig elsewhere & Jack went to school elsewhere. But I have always wondered if it was us instead as there was talk Dalrymple was keen on him too.
I was actively barracking for Ollie to come to us during the draft but wouldn’t trade him for Macrae now. Wonder if the Toumpas pick still sh*ts the Melbourne people, given what came in the next 3 picks…
Click to expand...

I always thought it was B-Mac who was ultra keen on Wines and it was Dalrymple who was on the Macrae train, could be wrong. I’m happy with how it turned out. Wines is a great player but I’m taking Macrae every time, Brownlow or no Brownlow. I also think Stringer was the right call. Is funny looking back at that draft. O’Rourke, Plowman and Toumpas might be the worst 2,3,4 picks in recent history while pick 6 and 7 is probably the best. Funny with how it turned out.

Melbourne seemed very likely to take him, they were always linked with him. Swings in roundabouts though. I’m sure they would’ve been gutted the first few years but not having Wines probably made them bad enough to get high enough draft picks for Petracca and Oliver. I’m sure they are happy were they are right now.
 
hutchy31 said:
This was always strange though, because the predictions are pretty solid for the rest of the top 10-12. Few short of Walsh’s total, Oliver and Steele a little high but otherwise almost right on the money. You’d actually have won some decent money on this by picking some good head to head bets and/or top vote getter on each team.

Where were Port’s votes going? Amon? Aliir? Houston? They were always getting 80+ votes so it was so strange to have Wines so low.
Click to expand...
Yes a lot of their numbers are close enough but you have to admit Wines is an epic fail. Saying he'd get 19 when he ended up with 36. Saying he'd finish 11th when he ended up winning it.

And the Brownlow is all about the winner - there's never any interest in who ran second, third or anywhere else. So getting a number of others almost right is no redeeming feat.
 

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Brownlow Can The Bont Bring Charlie Home

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