Can we make the top 4?

[PCORF]

I still think we will finish with a better record than last year. I say because Hawthorn, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs are almost unbeatable I say we will finish 5th, Sydney 4th because of a better percentage. But 5th = Semi Final exit but still that would be an impovment over last year, even though its always dissapointing not to make it to the Grand Final. We can still grab a Top 4 spot and a chance at a home prelim final if luck goes our way. 5 day games to finish off the season, and its usually always good weather at AAMI. Two tough games at Telstra Dome late in the season too.

brisbane away (lose) NIGHT
geelong home (win) NIGHT *
collingwood away (hard to predict, possibly lose) DAY
port away (never an easy game, hopefully win) DAY *
sydney away (lose) NIGHT
carlton home (win) DAY *
richmond home (win) DAY *
essendon away (win) DAY
stkilda away (win) DAY *
bulldogs home (a hard one to pick, hopefully win) DAY

* Free to air TV game for Victorian Viewers

 

[Ferris_rules]

the prize finish is 5th.

home final in the first week.

play loser of geelong v 4th (as long as its not Sydney) at the G

be placed on the other side of the draw of geelong.

only play them in a GF.

a lot of if's and but's more fantasy at this stage.

lol we still have to make the 8 ! lol

 

[PCORF]

The WB and Hawks games to me prove that we are heading in the right direction and I am confident we will be top 4 and a contender next year. I still say we are capable of beating any side in the comp at AAMI too.

Top 4 possible this year, a certainty next year.

NEVER say next year, NEVER!

Anything could happen next year, we could struggle again. Lets try and take those chances this year, that's the aim. Look what happened after we failed to take our chances in 2006, umm the team collapsed in 2007.

 

[kaij10]

To make the top 4 we will need to do the following

*Not lose against a top 8 side
*Can only afford to drop 1 or 2 games from here to the end of season

 

[Markthirtytwo]

NEVER say next year, NEVER!

Anything could happen next year, we could struggle again. Lets try and take those chances this year, that's the aim. Look what happened after we failed to take our chances in 2006, umm the team collapsed in 2007.

Now come on here. The reason was simple, we had too many injuries and we didn't have the strength in backup. Now we are playing kids and yes we are heading in the right direction, but one step at a time. We came up short in 06 after doing the same in 05. Still not good enough.

Yes we can make the top 4 this year but highly unlikely.

 

[Porps is a star!!]

Ok the way i see it is we are competeing with Sydney, Coll, Bris for that 4th spot. SO if we beat all of them our chances are fairly high?

Sydney on the run home play:

Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawks
Carlton
Us
Doggies
Freo
Cats
Coll
Lions

So fairly tough for them as they play the top 3 teams, so i wouldn't expect them to win any of them Ok maybe 1?? They have also had a very easy draw so far this year and have lost to the doggies and cats already.

Collingwood have to play SYdney twice and dogs and hawks and us!

Brisbane have a decent run home, should easily win every game except us Hawks and dogs.

I think that we will finish top 4

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Ok the way i see it is we are competeing with Sydney, Coll, Bris for that 4th spot. SO if we beat all of them our chances are fairly high?

Sydney on the run home play:

Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawks
Carlton
Us
Doggies
Freo
Cats
Coll
Lions

So fairly tough for them as they play the top 3 teams, so i wouldn't expect them to win any of them Ok maybe 1?? They have also had a very easy draw so far this year and have lost to the doggies and cats already.

Collingwood have to play SYdney twice and dogs and hawks and us!

Brisbane have a decent run home, should easily win every game except us Hawks and dogs.

I think that we will finish top 4

Little simplistic there I think, sometimes a team you least expect, have a good run home result wise.

 

[PrideofSA]

Form can change.

A team like Port, St Kilda or even Carlton may run into good form and beat us. If we drop off a little as well it can happen quite easily. It happens just about every year.

I would say out of Brisbane, Collingwood and Sydney we need to win at least 2 of those to take top 4.

We must win the last 5 as well, which IMO are all very winable matches. We just gotta ride out these tough matches (which started last week) As long as we don't lose too many of them and it doesn't suck the confidence out of the younger team I'll suggest we will win 4 of the last 5.

5th or 6th position and a home Elimination final is my prediction. An honorable loss in the semi's away to Geelong, Hawthorn or Bulldogs.

 

[srv23]

If we can't finish top 4 (I reckon Sydney will sneak into the 4 unfortunately) then 5th would be ideal.

Would have a home elim final against team 8. The top 7 seem to be a cut above whichever team sneaks into 8th spot so we should win that.

Then if the top side (Geelong or Hawks beat Syndey at the G as you'd expect) we would meet Sydney at the SCG in the semi (seem to remember doing that before!) In all seriousness we have a superb record against Sydney at the SCG so would give us at least a 50/50 chance of winning.

If we got over them then any of the top 3 sides would be very very tough for a Prelim although there would be something quite enticing about playing the doggies in a prelim at the G! (Granted a very different prospect to back then)

Not getting ahead of ourselves and in any case making the top 8 this year would be a great effort while blooding so many youngsters but I kind of like the idea of making the finals with a young exciting team that no-one really rates and no-one expects too much of.

Don't think we'll be top 4 but exciting times ahead nonetheless.

 

[Mismatched]

Top 4 IMO is a distinct possibility, however I think 5th probably sounds about right, just because we tend to lose the odd match we shouldn't. Wins against Brisbane, Collingwood and Sydney are distinctly possible IMO, we have had the wood over both Brisbane and Sydney recently both at home and away.

Brisbane have had a very easy run recently so don't get fooled by their apparent good form. Of their past 5 they've won 4, 3 of the wins were at home and all were against second rate sides. Brisbane IMO, whilst they have some great players are too reliant on a very select few to win them matches, Brown and Bradshaw kick their goals, Black and Power win it in the middle. Brisbane have the potential to be a very good side, but they are yet to gel completely as a team IMO and hence have struggled against the better sides.

Sydney are good, but again have had a very similar draw to us so far and have only 2 extra points to show for it. They're story this year tells a very similar story line to ours, they've beaten the sides below them, quite well on some occasions, but they're best win to this point is probably against the Lions, like us they are yet to claim a big scalp. Don't get me wrong, they are good, but I think we have the game plan and players to beat them and Roos is pretty much Craigy's b****. We are the equal of Sydney, they are not the top 4 certainties that many have made them out to be.

Collingwood will be a tough one, they can match it with the best if they want to, but then struggle against lesser sides. I am more than confident in our matches against Brisbane and Sydney, Collingwood I'm not sure about, it largely depends on which Collingwood comes out, the one which thrashed Geelong, or the one that lost to Carlton on the weekend.

There is no reason IMO, why we can't be in the top 4 by the end of the year, apart from Hawthorn, Geelong and perhaps the Bulldogs, there are no standout candidates. We can make the top 4 no worries, whether we do or not is another thing.

 

[Rave Slave]

Top 4 IMO is a distinct possibility, however I think 5th probably sounds about right, just because we tend to lose the odd match we shouldn't. Wins against Brisbane, Collingwood and Sydney are distinctly possible IMO, we have had the wood over both Brisbane and Sydney recently both at home and away.

Brisbane have had a very easy run recently so don't get fooled by their apparent good form. Of their past 5 they've won 4, 3 of the wins were at home and all were against second rate sides. Brisbane IMO, whilst they have some great players are too reliant on a very select few to win them matches, Brown and Bradshaw kick their goals, Black and Power win it in the middle. Brisbane have the potential to be a very good side, but they are yet to gel completely as a team IMO and hence have struggled against the better sides.

Sydney are good, but again have had a very similar draw to us so far and have only 2 extra points to show for it. They're story this year tells a very similar story line to ours, they've beaten the sides below them, quite well on some occasions, but they're best win to this point is probably against the Lions, like us they are yet to claim a big scalp. Don't get me wrong, they are good, but I think we have the game plan and players to beat them and Roos is pretty much Craigy's b****. We are the equal of Sydney, they are not the top 4 certainties that many have made them out to be.

Collingwood will be a tough one, they can match it with the best if they want to, but then struggle against lesser sides. I am more than confident in our matches against Brisbane and Sydney, Collingwood I'm not sure about, it largely depends on which Collingwood comes out, the one which thrashed Geelong, or the one that lost to Carlton on the weekend.

There is no reason IMO, why we can't be in the top 4 by the end of the year, apart from Hawthorn, Geelong and perhaps the Bulldogs, there are no standout candidates. We can make the top 4 no worries, whether we do or not is another thing.

Great post, pretty much how I see it.

Was actually shocked at how tough most of our competitors had it leading into September. Top 4 is still in our hands IMO.

I'm locking us in for 4th thanks Eddie.

 

[Geoffa32]

Looking at our Draw we can finish top four. However I dont think we are a top four side. Like Port last year.

If there though we will give it a shake. I firmly beleive on any given day we can beat any team, bar WCE.

 

[Vader]

Then if the top side (Geelong or Hawks beat Syndey at the G as you'd expect) we would meet Sydney at the SCG in the semi (seem to remember doing that before!) In all seriousness we have a superb record against Sydney at the SCG so would give us at least a 50/50 chance of winning.

They final against Sydney would be played at Homebush, not the SCG. The Crows have never played at Homebush.

We did play the Swans in a semi at the SCG in 1998, which was before the Olympic Stadium was completed. And yes, we won convincingly.

 

[Damp Squarie]

I think so as well I think Sydney has 4th wrapped up, Brisbane Collingwood and us are all pretty close and will depend on form and a bit of luck. I can see us finishing 5th or 6th I think 13-14 wins (4 or 5 wins out of 11 games) is about all we can expect given our run home. A lot will depend on our games at the Gabba this week, Collingwood at the G and Sydney at the SCG as to where we end up.

We could nab a top 4 spot, but I just cant see it happening. The loses against the Eagles in Perth and Bullies at the done and Hawks at home will hurt us at the end of the year. If we were good enough to be a top four side we would have nabbed 2 of those games.

How can you think Sydney has 4th spot tied away when there is 10 rounds to go and Adelaide are 2 points and % behind them

Sydney have 7 not so easy games to go.
Our destiny is in our own hands - particularly against Sydney whom we've owned in recent times.

Can we make the top 4 ? Hell yes.

 

[Campbell's Chunky]

The good thing is Sydney play Collingwood twice in the run home.

 

[Geoffa32]

The good thing is Sydney play Collingwood twice in the run home.

Collingwood are the threat for the fourth possie. Not the Swans.

 

[PrideofSA]

The good thing is Sydney play Collingwood twice in the run home.

That's can be good and bad though. For example, say if Sydney win both macthes against Collingwood, it might put Collingwood out of top 4 contention but it would really elevate Sydney's chances. Having said that Collingwood tend to beat Sydney most of the time is memory is served correctly.

 

[Campbell's Chunky]

Collingwood are the threat for the fourth possie. Not the Swans.

I'd say they both are.

All I'm saying is by having both of them play each other, at best they beat each other once, at worst one beats the other twice, and therefore makes it more likely we are only competing with one team.

And we play both of them, so we MUST knock them off.

 

[fightingdreamer88]

Certainty? You are an idiot at times.

This year we aren't good enough to be top 4, next year we are a chance but we do need to find a spark against the good teams. Somebody who will kick crunch goals like somebody mentioned in here.

Someone like Tippett could end up being that man with experience hopefully.

Ready yourself for the prophecy of 2009. Pencil it in.

Hey Rooster of the Lads, West Coast were supposed to be so hard to beat it wasn't even funny remember? Remember I was stupid for saying they aren't the juggernaut everyone thinks? They were supposed to THRASH everyone in the finals last year weren't they? You seem to love talking me down yet history says you have no leg to stand on.

FD88 - a million and three

RoosterPhail - 0

 

[Geoffa32]

I'd say they both are.

All I'm saying is by having both of them play each other, at best they beat each other once, at worst one beats the other twice, and therefore makes it more likely we are only competing with one team.

And we play both of them, so we MUST knock them off.

Exactly the good thing is, at this stage it is up to us.

We play all the contenders for "our" fourth spot. Beat all three we should get there.

 

[ExpectToWin]

6th or 7th sounds about right
will likely lose most of the next 5 then win most of the rest on current form

our draw for the rest of the season is

brisbane away (lose)
geelong home (lose)
collingwood away (lose)
port their home (win)
sydney away (lose)
carlton home (win)
richmond home (win)
essendon away (win)
stkilda away (lose depending on team we have at the time)
bulldogs home (win)

so that would put us 13 and 9 and about 6th

Just a thought

The crows have never beaten Essendon for premiershiop points in Melbourne and given you struggled to beat then at AAMI, this result may not be as predictable as you think.

Not to mention that Port will finally break through and give you a hammering

 

[PrideofSA]

Just a thought

The crows have never beaten Essendon for premiershiop points in Melbourne and given you struggled to beat then at AAMI, this result may not be as predictable as you think.

Not to mention that Port will finally break through and give you a hammering

Hawthorn had never beaten us here since 1994 either. Your point is?

 

[ExpectToWin]

Hawthorn had never beaten us here since 1994 either. Your point is?

My point is, it is very easy to just assume victory against lesser clubs BUT long term records are hard to break.

For the record I think Adelaide will win as well (and probably should) but it would not surprise me if Essendon won and kept their perfect record against you in Melbourne in tact.

 

[Ferris_rules]

My point is, it is very easy to just assume victory against lesser clubs BUT long term records are hard to break.

For the record I think Adelaide will win as well (and probably should) but it would not surprise me if Essendon won and kept their perfect record against you in Melbourne in tact.

By the time that game comes around, assuming no major injuries, I expect us to smoke them!

Our forward structure will be very settled, I expect to see Burton, Gill and/or Trent in there.

I can also see us playing two of the three rucks in Griffin, Tippett or Maric.

 

[Richard Cranium]

My point is, it is very easy to just assume victory against lesser clubs BUT long term records are hard to break.

For the record I think Adelaide will win as well (and probably should) but it would not surprise me if Essendon won and kept their perfect record against you in Melbourne in tact.

By round 20, Essendon will be more concerned over whether they pick Natanui or Rich than winning games, me thinks....