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Make the 8 and anything can happen
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FR0GGY
From a cartel villa in Tuscany
Narrator “they didn’t win in 22”
- Nov 5, 2009
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It doesn't fit perfectly, but the 80086 days takes us to the year 2238.
I would probably sign on the line for our next flag to be guaranteed in 2038.
Drugs Are Bad Mackay?
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Well, well, well... let's crunch those numbers again shall we? There's some stinky teams above us who are getting the wobbles.
What are they showing now?
Realistically I think we finish on 10.5 wins in 14th. Not a bad result in terms of finishing the year strongly without impacting draft hand.
Theoretically there is a path to 8th place with 12.5 wins. From looking at sims it feels like with 12.5 wins we'd make it around half of the time, as there's a decent chance the other candidate for 8th spot would also have 12.5 wins (e.g. Essendon) or maybe even be 12-11.
Can't see us winning the last 5 though.
Theoretically there is a path to 8th place with 12.5 wins. From looking at sims it feels like with 12.5 wins we'd make it around half of the time, as there's a decent chance the other candidate for 8th spot would also have 12.5 wins (e.g. Essendon) or maybe even be 12-11.
Can't see us winning the last 5 though.
Making the 8 isn’t the only sign we’re improving. We could still have roughly the same number of wins like last year, but with a huge stack of injuries this season, that should also indicate an improvement.
More importantly though, it’s the momentum we carry through to next season. This is what I’m keen to see. Making the 8 is highly unlikely at this stage.
We still have a very tough run over the next 5 weeks. Hawthorn have been good and usually play well at Adelaide Oval, Geelong near impossible to beat at home, the Bulldogs, Port have been inconsistent their best is amazing, their worst is terrible. Swans at the SCG is no easy game. At best we win 2 or 3 of these games but I think we'll be competitive in most of the games.
Momentum doesn’t carry through the preseason. And you know our injuries were way overblown, we had very few when we went 0-4 to start the season.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Didn't we start the season with Murray Thilthorpe Milera Butts out and Walker struggling for fitness?
When your forward line had Gollant and Burgess complementing Fogarty how the hell are you meant to score?
Only TT wasn’t known at end of last season and we expected finals with that knowledge. Tex missed one game.
Agreed, finish with around 11 wins (my gut feel as think we can win most with Cats away hardest and Horks next week will be v difficult with injuries to Dawson, Butts, Murray and Rankine still suspended. Swans last round won’t be as “hungry” as us if we needed to win for a VERY unlikely finals chance and I could see us winning it in that scenario).
The biggest positives this year are clearly the development of youngsters - Soligo esp earlier on, Nank, Taylor, Dowling (somewhat surprisingly) and Keanes development. Hinge, Max and Keays again very good and Fog now putting a body of work giving confidence he can be a 50+ player going forward. Last weeks glimpse from TT and Bond. Hopefully Curtin and Ryan to show abilities in a few of the remaining games with our injuries piling up.
For all those fans wanting us to lose (thrashed) I just wonder if they actually get excited or are happy with last nights game? Hopefully they are
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Agreed, finish with around 11 wins (my gut feel as think we can win most with Cats away hardest and Horks next week will be v difficult with injuries to Dawson, Butts, Murray and Rankine still suspended. Swans last round won’t be as “hungry” as us if we needed to win for a VERY unlikely finals chance and I could see us winning it in that scenario).
The biggest positives this year are clearly the development of youngsters - Soligo esp earlier on, Nank, Taylor, Dowling (somewhat surprisingly) and Keanes development. Hinge, Max and Keays again very good and Fog now putting a body of work giving confidence he can be a 50+ player going forward. Last weeks glimpse from TT and Bond. Hopefully Curtin and Ryan to show abilities in a few of the remaining games with our injuries piling up.
For all those fans wanting us to lose (thrashed) I just wonder if they actually get excited or are happy with last nights game? Hopefully they are
I can’t speak for most however given our side now has the likes of Taylor and Dowling in the side I think we are happier than we were earlier in the season.
But lets be honest here, the only reason the likes of Taylor and Dowling are playing is because of injuries. If Nicks had his way, the likes of McHenry and Jones would still be in the side. Taylor and Dowling have performed thereby making it difficult for Nicks to drop them back.
Will be interesting to see who will get dropped when Rankine returns. It should be Murphy but will it be?
Let’s just be happy today man. Nicks had a good coaching night and I am personally not going to dig up / engage in the same old shit AGAIN that’s been debated thousands of times already.
We are a very young and inexperienced team (clearly bottom quartile for both games and age) and playing bloody good footy. Perhaps we don’t need a complete second rebuild. Perhaps our development isn’t as bad as many imagine, perhaps we don’t need to close the club down.
Either way, Nicks HAS NOT lost the playing group. This is clear.
That was clearly the worst and most disappointing game of the year. And actually for a few years.
Geelong in Geelong and Sydney in Sydney make things next to impossible. Needed wildcard round to have a real chance.
‘Momentum into next year’ is such a bullshit lie fans of shit clubs tell themselves.
How did North’s momentum go from 2023 after winning that meaningless game that lost them Reid?
If we win every game we can still miss.
BUT, on probabilities, the difference between 11.5 wins and 12.5 wins is most likely finals and 13th place… one draft spot different to where we sit now should we choose to tank.
So go for it, as long as we do it by continuing to play the kids. Sydney game we could win if Syd have 1st locked up. Just check who we have a goal umpire.
I think the rest of the games are all winnable in theory, except for the Geelong game. Overcome that and then we can talk.
How did North’s momentum go from 2023 after winning that meaningless game that lost them Reid?
If we win every game we can still miss.
BUT, on probabilities, the difference between 11.5 wins and 12.5 wins is most likely finals and 13th place… one draft spot different to where we sit now should we choose to tank.
So go for it, as long as we do it by continuing to play the kids. Sydney game we could win if Syd have 1st locked up. Just check who we have a goal umpire.
I think the rest of the games are all winnable in theory, except for the Geelong game. Overcome that and then we can talk.
Even if we were to win those, it's still highly unlikely we can make it. Looking like someone with a 13 win season will miss out on %.
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Nicks wants to keep his job though.
Geelong losing to the Bulldogs is a pretty bad result for whatever tiny finals chances Adelaide had. We need a bit of separation so that a team with 12.5 wins can sneak into 8th. One game separating 2nd from 11th makes that pretty hard, would need a few teams to mess up badly.
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