Racing Caulfield Cup Day 2020 * All race day discussion/Tips in here please*

[KingOfThePunt]

Yup - and we don't need to make excuses for them when they do. Sometimes they just aren't good enough on the day plain and simple. VE is a better horse wet than dry - that's just who she is.

Remember that Saintly 1996 prep I posted a while back - had twitter been around then he would have been fair dinkum crucified on multiple occasions.

that’s all fine, but you were suggesting that VE is only a moderate chance in the CC earlier in this thread BECAUSE of the “poor” George Main run. This is having your carrot and eating it too. On the one hand you’re saying she is not much chance in the CC because of the george main, then on the other saying “we don’t have to make excuses for them not winning”.

 

[iluvparis]

that’s all fine, but you were suggesting that VE is only a moderate chance in the CC earlier in this thread BECAUSE of the “poor” George Main run. This is having your carrot and eating it too. On the one hand you’re saying she is not much chance in the CC because of the george main, then on the other saying “we don’t have to make excuses for them not winning”.

No it's not - that's exactly my point. Given how she performed on a dry track in the George Main she is only a moderate chance in the Caulfield Cup. Those chances improve exponentially if the track is wet.

The bold sentence shows you don't understand. She had no excuses when beat in the George Main and AS SUCH she has a moderate chance of winning the Caulfield Cup. That's just basic logic which so many on this forum fail with time and time again.

 

[KingOfThePunt]

No it's not - that's exactly my point. Given how she performed on a dry track in the George Main she is only a moderate chance in the Caulfield Cup. Those chances improve exponentially if the track is wet.

The bold sentence shows you don't understand. She had no excuses when beat in the George Main and AS SUCH she has a moderate chance of winning the Caulfield Cup. That's just basic logic which so many on this forum fail with time and time again.

And the CC is run over a mile too, is it? Just checking your basic logic because you only said her chances improve if wet.

 

[iluvparis]

And the CC is run over a mile too, is it? Just checking your basic logic because you only said her chances improve if wet.

Wut?

 

[KingOfThePunt]

Wut?

Well, you stated that her chances would improve in the CC if it was wet, because of how she performed at the George Main on dry. No mention of the distance change helping or hindering her. Therefore, logically speaking you consider she’s got the same ability at a mile as she does 2400m.

It’s basic logic, as you said.

 

[iluvparis]

Well, you stated that her chances would improve in the CC if it was wet, because of how she performed at the George Main on dry. No mention of the distance change helping or hindering her. Therefore, logically speaking you consider she’s got the same ability at a mile as she does 2400m.

It’s basic logic, as you said.

Good luck to you if you can point out where I said this. You do seem to struggle hugely with basic logic so I will just leave the discussion there.

 

[KingOfThePunt]

Good luck to you if you can point out where I said this. You do seem to struggle hugely with basic logic so I will just leave the discussion there.

I’m just extending your basic logic. You stated that given her run in the George main she was only a moderate chance in the CC, “unless it rains”. Therefore, a wet track is the only thing that can improve her chances relative to her GM performance, based on your statement. Therefore, you’re implicitly saying that neither the trip change from 1600m to 2400m nor the fact that she’ll be fourth up rather than second up will have any positive impact whatsoever, vis a vis her George Main run.

That’s pretty strange “logic” there...

 

[iluvparis]

I’m just extending your basic logic. You stated that given her run in the George main she was only a moderate chance in the CC, “unless it rains”. Therefore, a wet track is the only thing that can improve her chances relative to her GM performance, based on your statement. Therefore, you’re implicitly saying that neither the trip change from 1600m to 2400m nor the fact that she’ll be fourth up rather than second up will have any positive impact whatsoever, vis a vis her George Main run.

That’s pretty strange “logic” there...

That's not what I said at all so I am not surprised you have confused yourself the whole way through this conversation. Not shocked though given you struggle to understand basic logic.

 

[KingOfThePunt]

That's not what I said at all so I am not surprised you have confused yourself the whole way through this conversation. Not shocked though given you struggle to understand basic logic.

Yes, it is. You said that she would improve if it was a wet track. You didn’t mention at all that she might improve due to 2400m or being potentially fitter, so I can only conclude that you don’t consider them significant.

Unless, of course, you didn’t mention that she may improve due to those factors because it didn’t suit your conclusion that she was only a moderate chance. If this is the truth then you’ve succumbed to some confirmation bias I’m afraid.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes, it is. You said that she would improve if it was a wet track. You didn’t mention at all that she might improve due to 2400m or being potentially fitter, so I can only conclude that you don’t consider them significant.

Unless, of course, you didn’t mention that she may improve due to those factors because it didn’t suit your conclusion that she was only a moderate chance. If this is the truth then you’ve succumbed to some confirmation bias I’m afraid.

I didn't mention them because they had nothing to do with the point we are discussing. As you seem to need everything spelled out to you as clearly as possible given your struggles with basic logic. She is a MODERATE Caulfield Cup chance on dry GIVEN the race is held over 2400 (which we already knew - hence I didn't bring it up as it was blatantly obvious) and all the other variables that were a given and haven't changed from when your illogical discussion started.

 

[Jugada]

Needed time to unwind, was making ground again late despite having to re-accelerate. Best horse in the George Main.

Nah on her performance that day she wouldn't have won no matter how many times it was run. Interference was pretty much nothing but just wasn't good enough

 

[AvantGardener]

Nah on her performance that day she wouldn't have won no matter how many times it was run. Interference was pretty much nothing but just wasn't good enough

She rated shit and performance looked shit cos she was asked to be nippy and sit sprint. She isn't elite nip and sit-sprint horse. Other circumstances where she can use her elite power she wins. Needs to get out and rolling early has been a strong theme in her career and it didn't eventuate in the George Main. Horse performed exactly as usual just wasn't able to use its appropriate traits.

 

[KingOfThePunt]

I didn't mention them because they had nothing to do with the point we are discussing. As you seem to need everything spelled out to you as clearly as possible given your struggles with basic logic. She is a MODERATE Caulfield Cup chance on dry GIVEN the race is held over 2400 (which we already knew - hence I didn't bring it up as it was blatantly obvious) and all the other variables that were a given and haven't changed from when your illogical discussion started.

They had everything to do with the point we are discussing, ie her chances in the Caulfield Cup. You used her performance in the GM as evidence that she was a lesser chance than others expected in the CC. You used one piece of evidence from that - dry track - as a reason she may improve (if the track was wet) but ignored the others.

This is either confirmation bias or it’s just blatantly cherry picking pieces of information to solidify your opinion, and ignoring those that do not. And then you had the gall to call it logic. I call it trolling, personally.

She is clearly a better horse on soft but she is also going to be clearly more suited in the CC due to the 2400m and assumed extra fitness for being fourth up as against second up. You ignoring these factors because they don’t suit your “moderate chance due to the George Main” argument reeks of confirmation bias or trolling, as I stated above.

I have briefly had a look at another thread here where you’re offering futures bets at evens on certain events. Perhaps you can conceive of one for the Caulfield Cup that you think is reasonable as regards VE.

 

[iluvparis]

They had everything to do with the point we are discussing, ie her chances in the Caulfield Cup. You used her performance in the GM as evidence that she was a lesser chance than others expected in the CC. You used one piece of evidence from that - dry track - as a reason she may improve (if the track was wet) but ignored the others.

No I didn't - I never said anything of the sort. You are just jumping to random conclusions for some reason. I never even mentioned or brought any of the other numerous factors you have mentioned all of a sudden.

So I will break it down very simply for you in the hope you may actually be able to understand. All I am claiming is that based on the George Main run she is a moderate chance dry and a very good chance wet.

 

[KingOfThePunt]

I never even mentioned or brought any of the other numerous factors you have mentioned all of a sudden.

Which is precisely what I am saying... you failed to mention any of the other key differences between the George Main and the CC that would enhance her chances, ie the distance change and the implied extra fitness. It is like saying “based on how this tennis ball bounces I assume a tennis ball shaped rock will bounce just as well.”

Or, even more simply, you’re comparing apples with oranges.

 

[iluvparis]

Which is precisely what I am saying... you failed to mention any of the other key differences between the George Main and the CC that would enhance her chances, ie the distance change and the implied extra fitness. It is like saying “based on how this tennis ball bounces I assume a tennis ball shaped rock will bounce just as well.”

Or, even more simply, you’re comparing apples with oranges.

But these are known knowns! That is my point!!! What the George Main told us is that she is lengths better wet than dry!

JFC - I am out - you just aren't getting it.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Hi iluvparis How are you friend?

 

[iluvparis]

Hi iluvparis How are you friend?

Very well good sir - we miss fine gentlemen like yourself, KP and Duritz around these parts at this time of year.

 

[Jugada]

She rated sh*t and performance looked sh*t cos she was asked to be nippy and sit sprint. She isn't elite nip and sit-sprint horse. Other circumstances where she can use her elite power she wins. Needs to get out and rolling early has been a strong theme in her career and it didn't eventuate in the George Main. Horse performed exactly as usual just wasn't able to use its appropriate traits.

Make up your mind then, you were just claiming she only lost because another horse brushed up against her before. Just looking for excuses. Sometimes there aren't any especially when they're not superstars

 

[AvantGardener]

Make up your mind then, you were just claiming she only lost because another horse brushed up against her before. Just looking for excuses. Sometimes there aren't any especially when they're not superstars

The tightening meant she had to use nip/sit sprint ability. It goes hand in hand. She didn't have clear room and was later tightened which meant she couldn't use her elite power and had to use her limited sit-sprint.

 

[iluvparis]

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-10-06-stella-artois-caulfield-cup-2nd-acceptors-elimination-oder-at-6-october.pdf?la=en

Matser Of Wine in a world of hurt after second acceptances with the Herbert Power and Coogny winners potentially being able to jump him.

As stated a week or so ago Le Don De Vie who was high up in betting for ages has zero chance of getting a run.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Sounds like KingOfThePunt has a big futures bet and is praying for rain.

View attachment 978596

Need more tips for Guineas / Toorak from you

 

[onthehill24]

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-10-06-stella-artois-caulfield-cup-2nd-acceptors-elimination-oder-at-6-october.pdf?la=en

Matser Of Wine in a world of hurt after second acceptances with the Herbert Power and Coogny winners potentially being able to jump him.

As stated a week or so ago Le Don De Vie who was high up in betting for ages has zero chance of getting a run.

Mustajeer doubtful

 

[KingOfThePunt]

But these are known knowns! That is my point!!! What the George Main told us is that she is lengths better wet than dry!

JFC - I am out - you just aren't getting it.

To continue my Black Caviar analogy: if Black Caviar fails over 5500m in the Grand Annual, is she now a mediocre chance in the Lightning?

 

[Jugada]

5500m down to 1000m would be a hell of a training effort.

Solid straw man though