Speculation Chad Warner (OOC 2025)

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It could be just me but how I interpret the rise in pay for a year is simply he looks more likely to request a trade at the end of 2025 but the Swans know they're in premiership mode so they've offerred him a pay rise for next year to intice him to ask for a trade at the end of 2025 and not 2024.

Yeah I’m not sure I see how this makes any sense at all? Why would Sydney pay someone they expect to leave in a year more when they don’t have to, especially when there’s zero obligation to trade him this year even if he asks? That’s just a waste of salary cap, Swans already have him under contract for next year
 
Yeah I’m not sure I see how this makes any sense at all? Why would Sydney pay someone they expect to leave in a year more when they don’t have to, especially when there’s zero obligation to trade him this year even if he asks? That’s just a waste of salary cap, Swans already have him under contract for next year
If there's even a 5% chance he changes his mind, and you can get him to stay, you take that chance for a couple hundred k right?
 
If there's even a 5% chance he changes his mind, and you can get him to stay, you take that chance for a couple hundred k right?

I guess it depends on how the Swans read CW’s intentions on coming home for family etc. If it looks like he’s on the way home regardless once his contract is up, than I’d stand by my point. If it’s genuinely 50/50 stay/go and they get an extra year to convince him to stay, I can see the merit I guess..

It still feels a lil unusual but I concede I could have seen Freo do something similar with Neale in a parallel universe where we weren’t trying to get Hogan over the same year
 

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If there's even a 5% chance he changes his mind, and you can get him to stay, you take that chance for a couple hundred k right?
No. No club would give up essentially the difference between the floor and top of the cap for a five percent chance at keeping a player. What the **** is this copium fan fic you guys keep writing? 😂
 
No. No club would give up essentially the difference between the floor and top of the cap for a five percent chance at keeping a player. What the **** is this t made fan fic you guys keep writing? 😂
I know you think what freo supporters is saying is ridiculous but I don't think you get where wea are coming from. Its a specualtion thread so most of the posvs will be speculating Warner is leaving but no one knows for sure. In all the trade speculation threads people assume the person is leaving. I think in realivy it would be 50/50 with Warner but if he left this year the trade required would be huge. I agree its more likely he hasnt made his mind up either way and he'll see out his contract. If he does get traded Sydney will be compensated massively.
 
It just makes 0 sense to pay a player extra if your resigned to losing him. Hey mate I know your ditching us next year but we'd like to pay you 200k more as a token of our good will.

Ralphy reporting he's staying and swans have upped the offer. I know he's a journalist and they do make stuff up but it's the most ' concrete' evidence we have had either way..except for the secret gossip girl xo xo column in the west saying freo paid for his $500 hotel room
 
I know you think what freo supporters is saying is ridiculous but I don't think you get where wea are coming from. Its a specualtion thread so most of the posvs will be speculating Warner is leaving
No, I understand where it's coming from, it's just ridiculous. Between the hotel room, Chad being desperate to play with Sharp and Jackson again, and now the Swans raising his contact, a year and a half out from the end of it, to stop him requesting a trade while contracted? It's all bizarre.
 
No, I understand where it's coming from, it's just ridiculous. Between the hotel room, Chad being desperate to play with Sharp and Jackson again, and now the Swans raising his contact, a year and a half out from the end of it, to stop him requesting a trade while contracted? It's all bizarre.
Not as ridiculous as having a go at people speculating about a trade in a thread that's designed for trade speculation. Sorry but speculating possible trades is what the forum you're posting in is for.
Plus most freo dockers supporters have been pretty reasonable in there responses considering its a trade speculation thread. Yep everyone actually agrees there's a strong chance that Warner hasn't made his mind up and that its speculation only he hasn't.
 

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That could very well be the case. But if it didnt happen and he did decide to leave what do you think a trade would look like?
In 2024? Warner is under contract until 2025, so the Swans would likely reject the trade request unless the Dockers paid significant overs. Similar to the Papley and O'Keefe trades. Unless the Swans get their asking price, they tend to hold players to their contract.
Unless the Dockers offered all 3 of their firsts this year I'd be surprised if the Swans accepted a Warner trade request.
I'd also be very surprised if the Dockers offered that.
So a 2024 trade seems very unlikely.

In 2025 when Chad is OOC (but not a Free Agent) the trade price will likely be comparable to the Treloar to Collingwood and Jackson to Fremantle trades.
Roughly the same age, roughly the same profile, all OOC = 2 1st rounders (at least one of which is a top 10)

Adam Treloar to Collingwood 2015

TEAMGIVERECEIVE
CollingwoodPick 7, Pick 65, F1 (2016 Pick 7)Adam Treloar, Pick 28
GWSAdam Treloar, Pick 28Pick 7, Pick 65, F1 (2016 Pick 7)


Luke Jackson to Fremantle (3 team trade)

TEAMGIVERECEIVE
FremantlePick 13, F1 (2023 Pick 7), F2 (2023 Pick 34)Luke Jackson, Pick 44, Pick 67
MelbourneLuke Jackson, Toby BedfordPick 13, F1 (2023 Pick 7), F2 (2023 Pick 34)
GWSPick 44, Pick 67Toby Bedford
 
There's quite a difference in perception to the player between holding them to contract that's drastically undervalued and holding him to contract but increasing the value of it.

One of those brings with it the chance of keeping the player, not just in terms of retention, but their full attention during the season.

Young people get emotional, they start thinking things like working to your salary, not your potential and feeling like it's cost you $500,000 so Sydney can save face will burn a long time inside.
 
The whole jacking up contract for 2025 is just.... brain dead.

If we were gonna do that it would be a part of a contract extension likely a minimum of qn extra 2 years tacked on top.
I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that the Swans are just going to pay Warner extra money on a contract that he's already signed without adding an extension to the contract.

It seems to be from something Ralph said at half time of the Roos game. This is what Ralph said word for word. You can find it at the 1:27:30 mark of the Kayo replay of the game.

Well Sydney needs to open up the chequebook and it seems like they are prepared to do it.
Tom Harley brimming with confidence that they will get his signature after that royal flush of talent which they have secured. His quote "I'm very bullish about Chad's long term future at the Swans."
He says those talks are ongoing so it might take a contract like yours Lynchy, all those years back, I think he will stay at this football club.
 
In 2024? Warner is under contract until 2025, so the Swans would likely reject the trade request unless the Dockers paid significant overs. Similar to the Papley and O'Keefe trades. Unless the Swans get their asking price, they tend to hold players to their contract.
Unless the Dockers offered all 3 of their firsts this year I'd be surprised if the Swans accepted a Warner trade request.
I'd also be very surprised if the Dockers offered that.
So a 2024 trade seems very unlikely.

In 2025 when Chad is OOC (but not a Free Agent) the trade price will likely be comparable to the Treloar to Collingwood and Jackson to Fremantle trades.
Roughly the same age, roughly the same profile, all OOC = 2 1st rounders (at least one of which is a top 10)

Adam Treloar to Collingwood 2015

TEAMGIVERECEIVE
CollingwoodPick 7, Pick 65, F1 (2016 Pick 7)Adam Treloar, Pick 28
GWSAdam Treloar, Pick 28Pick 7, Pick 65, F1 (2016 Pick 7)


Luke Jackson to Fremantle (3 team trade)

TEAMGIVERECEIVE
FremantlePick 13, F1 (2023 Pick 7), F2 (2023 Pick 34)Luke Jackson, Pick 44, Pick 67
MelbourneLuke Jackson, Toby BedfordPick 13, F1 (2023 Pick 7), F2 (2023 Pick 34)
GWSPick 44, Pick 67Toby Bedford
To be fair with the Jackson trade, that F1 was meant to be in the teens, not pick 7
Maybe 13, 13-16 and a late F2 was the trade value they would have envisioned.
 
There's quite a difference in perception to the player between holding them to contract that's drastically undervalued and holding him to contract but increasing the value of it.
Oh we're on to inside knowledge of Warner's contract and reading his mind now.

The Swans MAY raise the value of his 2025, but it would be insane to do it without an extension being tied to it.
Young people get emotional, they start thinking things like working to your salary, not your potential and feeling like it's cost you $500,000 so Sydney can save face will burn a long time inside.
Handing out 500k bumps in an already-signed contract with less than 6 months notice isn't a matter of "saving face".
 
1. He's not out of contract so Swans don't have to trade him this yr
2. You don't have 2x top 10 picks

My expectation is that Freo have two top ten picks by the end of the year, meaning Freo can offer two top ten picks this season with a future first or next year offer one not top ten pick and a future first. Hence by there would even be a discussion between the two clubs.

Oh we're on to inside knowledge of Warner's contract and reading his mind now.

The Swans MAY raise the value of his 2025, but it would be insane to do it without an extension being tied to it.
Handing out 500k bumps in an already-signed contract with less than 6 months notice isn't a matter of "saving face".

You're spot on that the Swans will want to extend his deal in the process.
 

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Speculation Chad Warner (OOC 2025)

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