Prediction Changes and Pre Match Discussion vs Western Bulldogs R15 @Optus.

[shooshka]

One of the big disappointments I had with Mick Malthouse was he played ageing superstars just simply too long. This weekend is an opportunity to stand by and support some young guys who have stood up and done well. I think it is wise to consider our future. Giving games to previous great players simply because they are previous great players is not a great business strategy. I know this sentiment is not popular here but this weekend is a great opportunity to really nurture our next crop of superstars. I’m pretty impressed with a few and will be shattered if they have to follow Foley to the WAFL

'previously great'

Tim Kelly was previously great about 4 weeks ago, Shep about 3 weeks ago.

Shuey was massive against port before his injury, and Gov is one of the best defenders in the league (even if his output is 10-20% below his absolute peak currently).

There is no previously great players on that list - they are all current greats. The 'drop off' should be around guys like Hurn, Kennedy and maybe Redden - but they are going pretty well so they get picked while performing (or while winning games for us almost of their own boot/s).

 

[squashface]

Best game I've been to. Singing and celebrating in the pouring rain as Pridda ran down in his suit to join the boys was so good.

Such a perfect end to the season as the finals series was cancelled right after that

 

[bUCKET__]

The danger in bringing back our gun midfielders is less around them being underdone or performing, cos they're good to go and we know what they'll bring. The real danger in these changes is the flow-on effect with how the on-ball unit has been playing as a squad.

Redden has been in sensational form and there's a risk that he will find it hard to maintain that form when shunted more to the wing. Gaff started the year down on form and while he's built into it he doesn't seem to have a settled role just yet. What's Sheed's role gunna be, given his obvious limitations?

I reckon we'll nab the win here, but it's still going to take a few weeks for the midfield to settle I reckon.

But of course when we inevitably get a quieter game from one or two of these mids (knowing full well that every mid can't get 25+ touches each), you just know the lazy commentary around this issue will "they were underdone, shouldn't have bought them in".

In anticipation of these comments post game: pls **** off. We need these guys playing at their best, and doing that together. They have the potential to be the best midfield collective in the league if they get there, in which case it doesn't bloody matter where we finish in the 8. We gotta back them in and hope they find their groove.

 

[Wild Kelly]

The only other 30 year olds in the side are NicNat, Redden and Shep, who turned 30 a month ago and is a reigning All Australian.

Who are the aging former stars we should be dropping this week?

John Worsfold?

 

[woosha24]

John Worsfold?

Heard he's starting this one on the bench.

 

[Manbearpig77]

I believe that form is temporary and class is permanent. Therefore when you have top line talent available, you play them. However; with so many players returning from forced lay-offs at once we do indeed run the risk of being overrun in the final quarter.

It's a risk but if we're serious about going deep into finals we need our best players playing together for as long as possible. Having some young guns come in and play well in the absence of top line players is a massive bonus, it's now up to them to go back to the WAFL with their new found confidence and force their way back in at the expense of some of the more fringe players (eg Nelson, Rotham, Cole, Langdon etc). This in turn puts pressure on the fringe players to up their game to keep their positions.
Win/win. The only real question now for me is intent and mind set. Do we want it bad enough? We will find out soon.

 

[swingdog]

'previously great'

Tim Kelly was previously great about 4 weeks ago, Shep about 3 weeks ago.

Shuey was massive against port before his injury, and Gov is one of the best defenders in the league (even if his output is 10-20% below his absolute peak currently).

There is no previously great players on that list - they are all current greats. The 'drop off' should be around guys like Hurn, Kennedy and maybe Redden - but they are going pretty well so they get picked while performing (or while winning games for us almost of their own boot/s).

I'm happy to bring back Shuey and Shep. It would have been good to give Kelly a run in the WAFL but I can live with the risk / reward equation.

Gov I would leave out - the backline is settled and despite his previous form, he wasn't setting the world on fire this season. There's something needs to be sorted out as he and Barrass play much the same intercept role and looked to be getting in each other's way in early games.

 

[Chris_6678]

One of the big disappointments I had with Mick Malthouse was he played ageing superstars just simply too long. This weekend is an opportunity to stand by and support some young guys who have stood up and done well. I think it is wise to consider our future. Giving games to previous great players simply because they are previous great players is not a great business strategy. I know this sentiment is not popular here but this weekend is a great opportunity to really nurture our next crop of superstars. I’m pretty impressed with a few and will be shattered if they have to follow Foley to the WAFL

We still have these young guys listed:

Allen, Waterman, JJones, Ledwards, Rotham & Petch.

 

[DanWCE]

The danger in bringing back our gun midfielders is less around them being underdone or performing, cos they're good to go and we know what they'll bring. The real danger in these changes is the flow-on effect with how the on-ball unit has been playing as a squad.

Redden has been in sensational form and there's a risk that he will find it hard to maintain that form when shunted more to the wing. Gaff started the year down on form and while he's built into it he doesn't seem to have a settled role just yet. What's Sheed's role gunna be, given his obvious limitations?

I reckon we'll nab the win here, but it's still going to take a few weeks for the midfield to settle I reckon.

But of course when we inevitably get a quieter game from one or two of these mids (knowing full well that every mid can't get 25+ touches each), you just know the lazy commentary around this issue will "they were underdone, shouldn't have bought them in".

In anticipation of these comments post game: pls fu** off. We need these guys playing at their best, and doing that together. They have the potential to be the best midfield collective in the league if they get there, in which case it doesn't bloody matter where we finish in the 8. We gotta back them in and hope they find their groove.

Shuey seems to slot back in well. I'm expecting another Port game from him. TK goes quiet with Shuey in the side, so I am not expecting much from him. In fact, I'd prefer to keep Redden inside and TK play more of a damaging outside role. Suits the weather.

Same with Gaff. Get out of the CBD, and play behind the contest for the handball receive. He's a lovely kick when running in the direction he wants the ball to go. We need more of that, and less of the pressure hacks around the body. Leave that to Yeo who still gets good distance on those kicks.

 

[shooshka]

Shuey seems to slot back in well. I'm expecting another Port game from him. TK goes quiet with Shuey in the side, so I am not expecting much from him. In fact, I'd prefer to keep Redden inside and TK play more of a damaging outside role. Suits the weather.

Same with Gaff. Get out of the CBD, and play behind the contest for the handball receive. He's a lovely kick when running in the direction he wants the ball to go. We need more of that, and less of the pressure hacks around the body. Leave that to Yeo who still gets good distance on those kicks.

Yep, Gaff should be the biggest beneficiary of the inside mids returning. Can play as a receiver rather than a ball-getter and (hopefully) tear teams up.

What we definitely need to start seeing is more goals from our mid group also (albeit they may be on a forward flank when they hit the scoreboard). that will elevate our game to the next level required to compete.

 

[The Gov]

The danger in bringing back our gun midfielders is less around them being underdone or performing, cos they're good to go and we know what they'll bring. The real danger in these changes is the flow-on effect with how the on-ball unit has been playing as a squad.

Redden has been in sensational form and there's a risk that he will find it hard to maintain that form when shunted more to the wing. Gaff started the year down on form and while he's built into it he doesn't seem to have a settled role just yet. What's Sheed's role gunna be, given his obvious limitations?

I reckon we'll nab the win here, but it's still going to take a few weeks for the midfield to settle I reckon.

But of course when we inevitably get a quieter game from one or two of these mids (knowing full well that every mid can't get 25+ touches each), you just know the lazy commentary around this issue will "they were underdone, shouldn't have bought them in".

In anticipation of these comments post game: pls fu** off. We need these guys playing at their best, and doing that together. They have the potential to be the best midfield collective in the league if they get there, in which case it doesn't bloody matter where we finish in the 8. We gotta back them in and hope they find their groove.

Yeah agreed, there'll always be a quiet game from one or two players, that's the nature of footy, just good to have more than one genuine matchwinner in there for a change. We've recently really relied on a single player (one of Kelly Yeo or Shuey solo) to break the game open from in there, makes it easier to shut us down when our avenue is too obvious.

There'll inevitably be a few games where a players output at least stats wise seems lessened but am hoping that'll mostly be because each player is being asked to shoulder a little less of the load - it'll only be a good thing for the team if say Sheed has a 'down game' of 15-20 possessions because it's going through Shuey and Kelly more, and those 15-20 possessions are piercing kicks into the forward 50 with the benefit of less attention rather than flat-footed handballs under pressure.

Hoping Gaff is played more as that traditional winger/outside sweeper where his best seasons have come from. There'll probably just be two of Shuey Yeo and Kelly starting centre at any one point, they'll all need a bit of time off, get all three of them in at crunch time but focus on maintaining more of a balance. Redden and Sheed to fill in that last midfield spot, with Redden in when Yeo isn't as the defensive mid and Sheed in when Kelly or Shuey aren't in as the first receive mid. Redden can tag whilst still winning contested and linkup ball and Sheed can play wing/double up on the Gaff role when it suits also.

Sheed, Shuey and Kelly to spend stints as high HFFs and the last wing spot raffled between the main mids and a forward or back flanker like Jones, Ryan, Nelson, Duggan when he returns etc. Starting to get excited about the balance, hopefully can keep the wins ticking over as the players get used to it.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Really hoping for a win like the one over Port, but without the injuries.

Time to hunt.

 

[Coasters7]

It's pretty simple for me.
We're playing the 2nd side in the comp, not Norf, and we desperately need a win.

If Kelly and Gov are fit, they play.
It's not rocket science.

Yeah that’s true and I somewhat agree that there isn’t really any other option.

But two counter points are that we beat Richmond with none of these guys playing because we played as a squad, and that 5 players is a quarter of the squad coming back at once either underdone or rusty from not playing for a few weeks (some of them not even having played much together in the past 18 months).

It’s just a bit of a worry in the back of my mind that we’ll lose some of that underdog squad mentality and fall back to relying solely on our talent to pull us through, which is potentially fine if everyone’s at 100%, but they won’t be.

It’s better that they’re back for sure but I don’t think it’s as simple as plugging in 5 guns in the same week, who have mostly had lengthy layoffs, and winning by 6 goals. Medium to long term we’ll be fine but I just worry about their first game back all at once and wonder if the smart move would have been to filter them back in to an inform side slowly. You’d be brave to do it but it’s just a nervous thought.

 

[Chris_6678]

No Martin means English will ruck and if Naughty isnt fit then all of a sudden their tall stocks have taken a hit. So i hope we partner Allen with Nic nat and not bring in Vardy.

 

[DanWCE]

No Martin means English will ruck and if Naughty isnt fit then all of a sudden their tall stocks have taken a hit. So i hope we partner Allen with Nic nat and not bring in Vardy.

It might look tempting to go for ruck ascendancy via Vardy, but in a wet game we get nothing from him around the ground. Prefer to give that spot to a runner. It's Ledwards spot, basically. 22nd man.

 

[Chris_6678]

It might look tempting to go for ruck ascendancy via Vardy, but in a wet game we get nothing from him around the ground. Prefer to give that spot to a runner. It's Ledwards spot, basically. 22nd man.

100%

 

[Rowan18]

No Martin means English will ruck and if Naughty isnt fit then all of a sudden their tall stocks have taken a hit. So i hope we partner Allen with Nic nat and not bring in Vardy.

Hurn needs to test Naughtons ribs out early in the game. No way they have healed, he probably has a small fracture or severe bruising.

 

[flyinghi64]

Who goes to Bont?
I really think Nelson will be Sub or out so could Shep close him down? Plays tall and small and has the experience to just be his shadow. Or Duggo?

Redden to shadow Libba and pressure him all game, hopefully a few Libba flicks get picked up on and frees paid.

On the flip side do we just say beat them at our game and just deny them the ball so no hard lock downs required.

Just hope the rain holds out until late avo so we get a good high quality game, Also I have golf in the morning.

 

[squashface]

Yeo H2H with Bont
Redden H2H with Libba
Nelson to tag Daniel

 

[THE A5]

Yeo H2H with Bont
Redden H2H with Libba
Nelson to tag Daniel

Bock H2H with Gunston

 

[squashface]

Bock H2H with Gunston

The A5 H2H with aviskha

 

[shooshka]

Who goes to Bont?
I really think Nelson will be Sub or out so could Shep close him down? Plays tall and small and has the experience to just be his shadow. Or Duggo?

Redden to shadow Libba and pressure him all game, hopefully a few Libba flicks get picked up on and frees paid.

On the flip side do we just say beat them at our game and just deny them the ball so no hard lock downs required.

Just hope the rain holds out until late avo so we get a good high quality game, Also I have golf in the morning.

I feel like Redden might be a good matchup for Bont.

He's elite - but he isn't super quick or super strong in the mould of a Dusty/Judd/Shuey - he is more like a Pendlebury who is a bit taller, and finds time in traffic.

Maybe shep takes him when he goes forward - but I feel like Redden with his height and experience might be a good first-choice.

Also think it is critical we give Daniel a lot of attention. Whoever plays out of Langdon, JJ and Petch needs to stick with him. He sets up so much of their play and if he's restricted they really struggle to move the ball forward.

 

[The wily weagle]

I am going the early call, I think L Edwards absolutely thrives this week.

Obviously his impact against Richmond wouldn't have been ignored by the Dogs Match Committee, but, we have too many heavy hitters coming back into the side this week that warrant more attention.

I think due to this, he will get off the chain and play another magnificent game on the weekend.

Watch for him to rack up 20+ touches playing as a damaging link man

 

[DanWCE]

I feel like Redden might be a good matchup for Bont.

He's elite - but he isn't super quick or super strong in the mould of a Dusty/Judd/Shuey - he is more like a Pendlebury who is a bit taller, and finds time in traffic.

Maybe shep takes him when he goes forward - but I feel like Redden with his height and experience might be a good first-choice.

Also think it is critical we give Daniel a lot of attention. Whoever plays out of Langdon, JJ and Petch needs to stick with him. He sets up so much of their play and if he's restricted they really struggle to move the ball forward.

Good shout on JJ playing a defensive forward role. I like it!

 

[flyinghi64]

I am going the early call, I think L Edwards absolutely thrives this week.

Obviously his impact against Richmond wouldn't have been ignored by the Dogs Match Committee, but, we have too many heavy hitters coming back into the side this week that warrant more attention.

I think due to this, he will get off the chain and play another magnificent game on the weekend.

Watch for him to rack up 20+ touches playing as a damaging link man

Watch him get 25+ possies 5+ tackles 10+ CP's 6+ I50's and a goal.
AND watch him NOT GET an RS nom because someone else takes a couple of speccys and kicks a couple of goals with 10 possies.