Preview Changes & Pre-match Discussion - Round 18 vs. Port Adelaide - Gabba, Mon 21/09 @ 7:15pm AEST

[kaistar]

Sier is a big no for finals for me. He is slow and not a good user plus very one dimensional. Prefer Wills. Plus, why drop JT or Brown over Varcoe. JT has had a good 2 months or so and Brown is younger and hungrier. Varcoe goes before either.

Prefer Wills?????? Probably the least talented player on an AFL list. Don’t kid yourself mate.

 

[Capital Magpie]

Talk he might go to Darwin to get back

Darwin you say? How would that work? He would still have to quarantine for 2 weeks in Darwin before going to QLD (or Perth if we end up playing our 1st final there).

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[Captain Embubry]

Varcoe provides less than either. If you really want, drop Thomas not Brown

As for Sier v Wills, they both go at 42% by foot. Both are not good users in the slightest. Sier turns it over more as well as I've stated and Wills pressures more. For that reason, I'd rather Wills if I had to pick but by finals, none will be best 22 as we will have Mayne, Phillips & Sidebottom back.

Its much of a muchness really. But if we're splitting hairs over JT, Brown and Varcoe, all of which are likely to be bottom 5 in our potential finals lineup, im taking the bloke with finals runs on the board over JT and Brown.

Even with Mayne and Sidey in the mix i would still say Sier has a place in our best 22 before Phillips and Wills.

 

[Prochard123]

So Bucks said Howe probably won't make it for this season, does he mean round 1 of finals or the entire year?

Howe is currently listed as 1-3 weeks away. If we win week 1, that means he's a strong chance for week 2 finals or nah?

 

[Scratchy05]

I'm glad you brought some statistical analysis into this.

Sier averages 17 disposals a game, including a game where he did his quad early on but played through, his disposal efficiency is 76.9%, he averages over 156 metres gained per game, averages nearly 5 clearances a game and averages 21 pressure acts a game.

Compare this to Wills, who averages 15 disposals a game at 71%, gains only 72 metres per game (this is terrible!), averages just over 2.6 clearances a game AND averages 17 pressure acts per game.

So yeah, Wills lays more tackles. But he actually applies less pressure to the opposition, disposes of it far more ineffectively in terms of both not moving it forward and not being statistically effective, and he's 4.5 years older than Sier. There's no way you can convince me Wills, a VFL-level player, is better than Sier, who was crucial to our GF run as a kid

Firstly, Wills averages 62% ToG compared to Siers 75%. As I stated earlier, Wills ToG was brought down by a game he played under 40% game-time in. Lets average out their stats to have 80% each. I have picked key areas for inside mids who don't provide much forward drive.

- One Percenters: Wills 1.4 v Sier 0.3
- Disposals: Wills 20.1 v Sier 18.5 (also noted that Wills has a higher proportion of use by foot, hence the lower DE%. Kicking efficiency is virtually identical for both with both being below average at 42%)
- Inside 50s: Wills 1.8 v Sier 2.1
- Clangers: Wills 3.6 v Sier 4.0
- Effective Disposals: Wills 14.3 v Sier 14.2
- Metres Gained: Wills 93 v Sier 169
- Contested Possessions: Wills 8.5 v Sier 7.8
- Ground Ball Gets: Wills 5.8 v Sier 4.6
- Turnovers: Wills 3.1 v Sier 3.5
- Clearances: Wills 3.4 v Sier 5.0
- Marks: Wills 1.7 v Sier 1.4
- Score Involvements: Wills 3.4 v Sier 4.3
- Score Launches: Wills 1.0 v Sier 0.7
- Tackles: Wills 6.2 v Sier 3.5
- Pressure Acts: Wills 21.7 v Sier 22.4
- DH Pressure Acts: Wills 8.4 v Sier 6.1

I'll start by saying that both have a small sample size, particularly Sier. In saying that, from this it is clear to see that both are similar users with Sier being a little more likely to go forward hence the extra clangers/turnovers. Both are the same from a ball use standpoint. Sier is also superior from a clearance standpoint. Here is the thing, we have Treloar and Adams, both who excel in that area. From this data, it is clear to see that Wills does the team thing much better than Sier. He does more 1%ers so shepherds, spoils & smouthers. He has more ground ball gets while also being the better pressure player with very similar pressure acts and many more tackles/defensive half pressure acts (although pressure acts is a pretty ambiguous stat).

Wills does the team things which is a bigger need than Sier's clearance work. We already have Treloar and Adams who are the engines with Pendles being a user. Wills provides grunt and a lot of pressure. Give me him over Sier.

 

[Scratchy05]

Its much of a muchness really. But if we're splitting hairs over JT, Brown and Varcoe, all of which are likely to be bottom 5 in our potential finals lineup, im taking the bloke with finals runs on the board over JT and Brown.

Even with Mayne and Sidey in the mix i would still say Sier has a place in our best 22 before Phillips and Wills.

Phillips over Sier is as clear option as daylight. Phillips play without Sidebottom in the side was much improved as he got to spend more time on the wing. Phillips runs all day and provides a very fit outside option to compliment Daicos who is a very skilled user.

 

[gouki88]

Firstly, Wills averages 62% ToG compared to Siers 75%. As I stated earlier, Wills ToG was brought down by a game he played under 40% game-time in. Lets average out their stats to have 80% each. I have picked key areas for inside mids who don't provide much forward drive.

- One Percenters: Wills 1.4 v Sier 0.3
- Disposals: Wills 20.1 v Sier 18.5 (also noted that Wills has a higher proportion of use by foot, hence the lower DE%. Kicking efficiency is virtually identical for both with both being below average at 42%)
- Inside 50s: Wills 1.8 v Sier 2.1
- Clangers: Wills 3.6 v Sier 4.0
- Effective Disposals: Wills 14.3 v Sier 14.2
- Metres Gained: Wills 93 v Sier 169
- Contested Possessions: Wills 8.5 v Sier 7.8
- Ground Ball Gets: Wills 5.8 v Sier 4.6
- Turnovers: Wills 3.1 v Sier 3.5
- Clearances: Wills 3.4 v Sier 5.0
- Marks: Wills 1.7 v Sier 1.4
- Score Involvements: Wills 3.4 v Sier 4.3
- Score Launches: Wills 1.0 v Sier 0.7
- Tackles: Wills 6.2 v Sier 3.5
- Pressure Acts: Wills 21.7 v Sier 22.4
- DH Pressure Acts: Wills 8.4 v Sier 6.1

I'll start by saying that both have a small sample size, particularly Sier. In saying that, from this it is clear to see that both are similar users with Sier being a little more likely to go forward hence the extra clangers/turnovers. Both are the same from a ball use standpoint. Sier is also superior from a clearance standpoint. Here is the thing, we have Treloar and Adams, both who excel in that area. From this data, it is clear to see that Wills does the team thing much better than Sier. He does more 1%ers so shepherds, spoils & smouthers. He has more ground ball gets while also being the better pressure player with very similar pressure acts and many more tackles/defensive half pressure acts (although pressure acts is a pretty ambiguous stat).

Wills does the team things which is a bigger need than Sier's clearance work. We already have Treloar and Adams who are the engines with Pendles being a user. Wills provides grunt and a lot of pressure. Give me him over Sier.

I don't see how playing a plodder who does "the team thing" over a genuine AFL quality midfielder is the right move, but agree to disagree

 

[Captain Embubry]

Firstly, Wills averages 62% ToG compared to Siers 75%. As I stated earlier, Wills ToG was brought down by a game he played under 40% game-time in. Lets average out their stats to have 80% each. I have picked key areas for inside mids who don't provide much forward drive.

- One Percenters: Wills 1.4 v Sier 0.3
- Disposals: Wills 20.1 v Sier 18.5 (also noted that Wills has a higher proportion of use by foot, hence the lower DE%. Kicking efficiency is virtually identical for both with both being below average at 42%)
- Inside 50s: Wills 1.8 v Sier 2.1
- Clangers: Wills 3.6 v Sier 4.0
- Effective Disposals: Wills 14.3 v Sier 14.2
- Metres Gained: Wills 93 v Sier 169
- Contested Possessions: Wills 8.5 v Sier 7.8
- Ground Ball Gets: Wills 5.8 v Sier 4.6
- Turnovers: Wills 3.1 v Sier 3.5
- Clearances: Wills 3.4 v Sier 5.0
- Marks: Wills 1.7 v Sier 1.4
- Score Involvements: Wills 3.4 v Sier 4.3
- Score Launches: Wills 1.0 v Sier 0.7
- Tackles: Wills 6.2 v Sier 3.5
- Pressure Acts: Wills 21.7 v Sier 22.4
- DH Pressure Acts: Wills 8.4 v Sier 6.1

I'll start by saying that both have a small sample size, particularly Sier. In saying that, from this it is clear to see that both are similar users with Sier being a little more likely to go forward hence the extra clangers/turnovers. Both are the same from a ball use standpoint. Sier is also superior from a clearance standpoint. Here is the thing, we have Treloar and Adams, both who excel in that area. From this data, it is clear to see that Wills does the team thing much better than Sier. He does more 1%ers so shepherds, spoils & smouthers. He has more ground ball gets while also being the better pressure player with very similar pressure acts and many more tackles/defensive half pressure acts (although pressure acts is a pretty ambiguous stat).

Wills does the team things which is a bigger need than Sier's clearance work. We already have Treloar and Adams who are the engines with Pendles being a user. Wills provides grunt and a lot of pressure. Give me him over Sier.

Not sure where you're getting your stats from. But here is a comparison of Wills 8 games v Siers 3 this year. Like you said it is a small sample size, so ive also included Sier's 12 games from 2018 vs Wills this year.

In short. There is no comparison.

 

[Scratchy05]

I don't see how playing a plodder who does "the team thing" over a genuine AFL quality midfielder is the right move, but agree to disagree

Because he fills a defensive midfield role. As stated, we have Treloar and Adams already so Sier is of less value.

 

[Robroy22]

Firstly, Wills averages 62% ToG compared to Siers 75%. As I stated earlier, Wills ToG was brought down by a game he played under 40% game-time in. Lets average out their stats to have 80% each. I have picked key areas for inside mids who don't provide much forward drive.

- One Percenters: Wills 1.4 v Sier 0.3
- Disposals: Wills 20.1 v Sier 18.5 (also noted that Wills has a higher proportion of use by foot, hence the lower DE%. Kicking efficiency is virtually identical for both with both being below average at 42%)
- Inside 50s: Wills 1.8 v Sier 2.1
- Clangers: Wills 3.6 v Sier 4.0
- Effective Disposals: Wills 14.3 v Sier 14.2
- Metres Gained: Wills 93 v Sier 169
- Contested Possessions: Wills 8.5 v Sier 7.8
- Ground Ball Gets: Wills 5.8 v Sier 4.6
- Turnovers: Wills 3.1 v Sier 3.5
- Clearances: Wills 3.4 v Sier 5.0
- Marks: Wills 1.7 v Sier 1.4
- Score Involvements: Wills 3.4 v Sier 4.3
- Score Launches: Wills 1.0 v Sier 0.7
- Tackles: Wills 6.2 v Sier 3.5
- Pressure Acts: Wills 21.7 v Sier 22.4
- DH Pressure Acts: Wills 8.4 v Sier 6.1

Thanks for doing this. We have the Pig for defence, I'll take Sier's offence any day of the week thanks.
Rupert needs to find a VFL team (quickly) for 2021...thats his standard.

 

[Ingy]

Imagine thinking Sier isn't a much better kick than Wills...

 

[Scratchy05]

Not sure where you're getting your stats from. But here is a comparison of Wills 8 games v Siers 3 this year. Like you said it is a small sample size, so ive also included Sier's 12 games from 2018 vs Wills this year.

In short. There is no comparison.

View attachment 963084View attachment 963089

so you only look at Wills 2020 which has had 62% gametime compared to Sier in a year he played consistent footy when it was clear this year he wasn't the same player. I adjusted for gametime and Wills beats Sier comfortably. As of 2020 form. Funny how you also skipped Siers 2019 form where Wills also had the better year. Wills has been better for the last 2 years and would much rather stick with him come finals.

 

[Scratchy05]

The offence is incredibly similar. Funny how you ignore turnovers and clangers which is an offensive stat that Wills beats him in. Also ignored Score Launches which are the start of a scoring chain as well as marks. Ignored ground ball gets conveniently as well

 

[Scratchy05]

Anyway I've had enough as I won't convince anyone and you won't convince me. What does our best 22 look like come finals time on the assumption Howe, Sidebottom, Mayne & Phillips are all ready to go (as all are a possibility for week 1 finals)?

B: Madgen/Roughead/Howe
HB: Crisp/Moore/Maynard
R: Grundy/Treloar/Pendles
C: Daicos/Adams/Phillips
HF: Elliott/Mihocek/WHE or Thomas
F: Stephenson/Cox/De Goey
int: Noble or Quaynor/Sidebottom/Mayne/C.Brown
E: Noble or Quaynor/Greenwood/Wills or T.Brown/WHE or Thomas

 

[Quicky]

I actually singled out 2. It was purely in response to all the "Stevo is a goal kicker and we need to score" type posts and is aimed purely to show that we score more without them and we concede less without them. Better offensively, better defensively. I would have posted the figures regardless of the outcome but that's what they show.

I think when you consider all the variables involved in winning a game and contributing to the score, that the stats you present are meaningless and don't really demonstrate anything.

 

[neilk]

If the results go our way and we’ve avoided 8th spot before Sunday do they consider resting anyone by bringing emergencies in?

 

[Captain Embubry]

so you only look at Wills 2020 which has had 62% gametime compared to Sier in a year he played consistent footy when it was clear this year he wasn't the same player. I adjusted for gametime and Wills beats Sier comfortably. As of 2020 form. Funny how you also skipped Siers 2019 form where Wills also had the better year. Wills has been better for the last 2 years and would much rather stick with him come finals.

Sorry, here are the stats Wills v Sier for last year that i "conveniently" left out. Not much between the two except for tackles, which by the way have almost halved for him this year. So not sure that backs up your argument considering his biggest drawcard is defence... (also not sure why the desperate need for defensive mids considering we have the best against per game in the top 8 and the worst for per game in the top 8)

 

[gouki88]

Because he fills a defensive midfield role. As stated, we have Treloar and Adams already so Sier is of less value.

He doesn't get a crack in the midfield when we're healthy, because he has no talent going forward. Sier does. Why would Wills not have been getting a game when we were down Treloar and Sidebottom? Because he's been found out time and again to be no good

 

[Jen2310]

Anyway I've had enough as I won't convince anyone and you won't convince me. What does our best 22 look like come finals time on the assumption Howe, Sidebottom, Mayne & Phillips are all ready to go (as all are a possibility for week 1 finals)?

B: Madgen/Roughead/Howe
HB: Crisp/Moore/Maynard
R: Grundy/Treloar/Pendles
C: Daicos/Adams/Phillips
HF: Elliott/Mihocek/WHE or Thomas
F: Stephenson/Cox/De Goey
int: Noble or Quaynor/Sidebottom/Mayne/C.Brown
E: Noble or Quaynor/Greenwood/Wills or T.Brown/WHE or Thomas

Howe won't play.

 

[Scratchy05]

He doesn't get a crack in the midfield when we're healthy, because he has no talent going forward. Sier does. Why would Wills not have been getting a game when we were down Treloar and Sidebottom? Because he's been found out time and again to be no good

I've stated I don't think either are best 22. I personally think none are good enough, just that Wills is better. Sier isn't good at going forward, his metres gained is below average, he kicks it at 43% and turns it over a fair bit for someone who doesn't provide any drive. Both aren't good enough and are not best 22.

 

[cityslick1]

And their first final (Elimination final) will be. Whomever is 8th, will play eagles. Fly to perthm quarantine for 7 days then play them.

Stupid. Vic clubs don’t get a home final advantage, so not sure why WCE should. Should just stay in the QLD hub and avoid all of the travel and quarantine shizen

 

[cityslick1]

Revising my changes because at this point I feel less changes the better (and am free of my beer-induced haze immediately post-match!)

OUT: C. Brown - Varcoe
IN: Stephenson - Sier

FB: Maynard - Roughead - Madgen
HB: Crisp - Moore - Quaynor
C: Daicos - Adams - Greenwood
HF: Elliott - Cox - Mihocek
FF: Stephenson - De Goey - Thomas
FOL: Grundy - Pendlebury - Adams
INT: Sier - Hoskin-Elliott - T. Brown - Noble

THIS!! Get that Sier may not be ready, but how the coaches cannot see the liabilities that these two are gives me little confidence in them picking a winning team for finals.
And I’d still take Mayne and / or ruscoe over both of them

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

If the results go our way and we’ve avoided 8th spot before Sunday do they consider resting anyone by bringing emergencies in?

I hope not. Dont flirt with form.

 

[Robroy22]

The offence is incredibly similar. Funny how you ignore turnovers and clangers which is an offensive stat that Wills beats him in. Also ignored Score Launches which are the start of a scoring chain as well as marks. Ignored ground ball gets conveniently as well

Its not funny that I ignore those things....they happen to every midfielder but CLEARANCES are what Sier provides and I'll take that over tackling someone after they've won possession of the ball (and usually already made the clearance). Rupert is a tackler. He's a responsive player. Sier is an initiator, he creates opportunity. If you wanna watch scrums, take Wills to the Storm. I want to watch footy.