Prediction Changes vs Western Bulldogs R2 2021

[Godfather32]

Guys, I think we're missing the obvious solution to our ruck issue and the answer is Darling to the midfield!
We drop Vardy for an extra runner, Darling goes into the ruck as the backup to Nic Nat and plays some in the forward line. It solves a lot of our height issues in the forward line for much of the game, Oscar doesn't get smashed and Darling is fairly competitive around the ground in the ruck.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

but guys like Nelson and Cole are much better suited to it than Nelson.

2 x Nelson's ?

 

[The wily weagle]

The irony in all this Vardy to be dropped talk is that Tom Hickey

31

Tom Hickey

Age

33

Ht

202cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.9

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

19.1

5star

D

4.0

1star

K

1.5

1star

HB

2.5

2star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

7.0

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

7.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

8.6

5star

played extremely well on the weekend in Sydney's win

 

[WCErevival]

The irony in all this Vardy to be dropped talk is that Tom Hickey played extremely well on the weekend in Sydney's win

He suits the number 1 ruck role. I think he struggles as second fiddle

 

[MrWoollie]

This is spot on. You can't play Brander in the ruck.

I don't think the problem is playing Brander in the ruck so much as what is the point of playing a ruckman who cannot win a hitout. 1 for an entire match.
Along with 3 possessions, one of which was a mis-kick that landed on his head for a mark and goal.

You might as well play Caleb Daniel in the ruck.

Brander as a ruckman is a loser as far the ruck is concerned, but at least he then becomes a mobile tall who can link, mark and get to a contest. Even if he loses every ruck contest we are hardly worse off.

If we feel that we need a 2nd ruck (of some description) then it might as well be Brander until Williams is available. Basically, anyone else is an improvement.

 

[Dylan82]

Gaiz, Simmo isn't sending Brander in to the ruck by himself for the same reason he isn't sending Oscar in there by himself.

This is what Simmo said after last weekend's game:

The two-ruck combo with Nic and (Nathan) Vardy, how did you view that?

“It’s really difficult to not do that for us. The lower the rotations, the longer the game time, power athletes are going to get exposed. Resting forward doesn’t really work for everyone, so we’ve got to find a way to get Nic involved in the game and that at the moment means an extra ruck.”

It would be the most Bevo coaching move and Simmo and Bevo are probably the polar opposites of each other.

Most likely scenario is Vardy stays until Williams pushes him out.

Actually not in disagreement with you.

What I currently see however is that Vardy is woefully inadequate for the job (and has been at every opportunity given through preseason and now Round 1), and Allen is too valuable up forward now to be considered as ruck chop-out for the number of minutes that are required.

So unless we want to carry Vardy around for another week so he can get single-figure hitouts and disposals against the Bulldogs, whilst playing him just 50% of the game as we are afraid C.Daniel and the other B.Williams will get 40 possessions rebounding off him if he gets rested in the forward line - then we need to get a bit creative in terms of addressing the ruck when Naitanui is off the ground.

My preference would be to have Darling assume ruck duties in the forward half of the ground when Naitanui is off, and have H.Edwards or Brander doing similar in the defensive half, effectively sharing the secondary ruck role between two players. The enticing part with Brander is you could still use him as a spare through the midfield and around the stoppages when Darling is taking those forward ruck contests.

Either way, utilising H.Edwards or Brander over Vardy would provide far more flexibility in key defensive rotations and result in Allen playing more minutes at the attacking end of the ground - a gain that in itself is arguably greater than the loss that would be incurred by replacing the secondary ruck with non-specialists.

 

[Balls In]

Im no fan but Vardy is one of the first picked next week because theres no viable alternative. Can we just stop with this Oscar to the ruck crap?

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Honestly what ability do you think he has?

Good overhead mark, good kick, clean hands below knees. Obviously has the athleticism for AFL.
Disagree?

Don't misunderstand me, I don't think he is AFL quality and don't think he ever will be. But its not the skills that are lacking.

 

[Coasters7]

This is spot on. You can't play Brander in the ruck.

They're both pretty much the same size, and the repeat efforts in the ruck required to support a ruckman that plays 63% TOG is too great.

Richmond and Western Bulldogs throw undersized guys in to the ruck (Bala/Riewoldt/Broad & Dunkley) but they are supporting ruckman that play 85% TOG. That is a very different proposition.

Simmo said a while back that our ruck situation will be a week to week proposition. In terms of Vardy on the weekend (and in the pre-season games). It is not clear what the actual strategy was for him as 2nd ruck. If it was to try and compete for hitouts- he didn't do that. If it was to nullify Witts, and win the ball around the ground, well he didn't do that, either. Other than a great grab and subsequent goal, he offered nothing while making us structurally unsound.

What I would like to see is to have Allen/Darling/Barrass share the 2nd ruck job. Allen can rotate between forward and back, and Darling can take ruck contests in the front half when Nic on the bench.

Reduced rotations might force Simpson to be a bit more creative than what would normally be, but Brander taking the 2nd ruck by himself isn't an option for the same reason it isn't an option for Allen.

If we go with multiple players covering the 2nd ruck, then we can replace Vardy with a midfielder, Trew or Brander, and it means we address our structural issues caused by having Kennedy/Darling/Allen/Nic/2nd ruck.

What I think will happen is match committee make fringe changes such as swapping Petch for Jones.

That’s largely the point though. Brander would likely be shit in the ruck but how much worse than Vardy would he be? Branders height would at least mean he got attention in the ruck and not be walked all over like a Dunkley or Grigg and I’d be fairly certain he’d impact the rest of the game more than Vardy did.

It’s not going to happen but it’s an interesting thought as it would reduce the ineffectiveness of certain positions, give us better ground cover/use of rotations. It’s about the balance of the team more than who’s preferred position is ruck.

 

[squashface]

Im no fan but Vardy is one of the first picked next week because theres no viable alternative. Can we just stop with this Oscar to the ruck crap?

Don’t think a single person here wants Oscar in the ruck

 

[Godfather32]

Im no fan but Vardy is one of the first picked next week because theres no viable alternative. Can we just stop with this Oscar to the ruck crap?

The over-whelming majority seem to be saying they don't want Allen in the ruck...not sure what you're reading

 

[RookiePick]

It's hard for Vardy to party with all this negative energy.

 

[FreeTK]

That’s largely the point though. Brander would likely be sh*t in the ruck but how much worse than Vardy would he be? Branders height would at least mean he got attention in the ruck and not be walked all over like a Dunkley or Grigg and I’d be fairly certain he’d impact the rest of the game more than Vardy did.

It’s not going to happen but it’s an interesting thought as it would reduce the ineffectiveness of certain positions, give us better ground cover/use of rotations. It’s about the balance of the team more than who’s preferred position is ruck.

I don't think the problem is playing Brander in the ruck so much as what is the point of playing a ruckman who cannot win a hitout. 1 for an entire match.
Along with 3 possessions, one of which was a mis-kick that landed on his head for a mark and goal.

You might as well play Caleb Daniel in the ruck.

Brander as a ruckman is a loser as far the ruck is concerned, but at least he then becomes a mobile tall who can link, mark and get to a contest. Even if he loses every ruck contest we are hardly worse off.

If we feel that we need a 2nd ruck (of some description) then it might as well be Brander until Williams is available. Basically, anyone else is an improvement.

Actually not in disagreement with you.

What I currently see however is that Vardy is woefully inadequate for the job (and has been at every opportunity given through preseason and now Round 1), and Allen is too valuable up forward now to be considered as ruck chop-out for the number of minutes that are required.

So unless we want to carry Vardy around for another week so he can get single-figure hitouts and disposals against the Bulldogs, whilst playing him just 50% of the game as we are afraid C.Daniel and the other B.Williams will get 40 possessions rebounding off him if he gets rested in the forward line - then we need to get a bit creative in terms of addressing the ruck when Naitanui is off the ground.

My preference would be to have Darling assume ruck duties in the forward half of the ground when Naitanui is off, and have H.Edwards or Brander doing similar in the defensive half, effectively sharing the secondary ruck role between two players. The enticing part with Brander is you could still use him as a spare through the midfield and around the stoppages when Darling is taking those forward ruck contests.

Either way, utilising H.Edwards or Brander over Vardy would provide far more flexibility in key defensive rotations and result in Allen playing more minutes at the attacking end of the ground - a gain that in itself is arguably greater than the loss that would be incurred by replacing the secondary ruck with non-specialists.

It's not going to happen for very clear reasons. The game is too long in 2021 and Nic's TOG is too low for an undersized 2nd ruck.

It doesn't matter whether that ruck is Oscar, or Brander, or Edwards. They're undersized and their bodies aren't mature enough.


Oscar not playing as 2nd ruck has nothing to do with providing too much value as a forward as you claim. I'm not sure where you got that idea from, because it's not the reason.

If it was based purely on output as a forward, Simmo would not have been swinging him backwards and forwards all day yesterday.

Oscar isn't playing 2nd ruck because even in shorter games he was being beaten to a pulp in many games last year, and needed shoulder surgery in the off-season.

It is simply that you can not ask a 195cm pinch hitter to go up against Jarrod Witts/Stef Martin/Lycett types in the ruck for 35-40% game time.

There is a chance that against teams like Geelong, GWS, Richmond or even Collingwood we could get away with Oscar as 2nd ruck, but our first 4 opponents are some of the strongest ruck divisions in the comp with the most physical ruckmen.

Simmo/match committee won't do it, and nor should they. Throwing an undersize guy into the ruck for a couple of contests is one thing, doing it for 40 minutes is something quite different.

Vardy was absolutely terrible on the weekend, but if their was a simple positional change to fix it, he never would have played in the first place given his output in the derby.

There are two ways to address the ruck issue:

1: Vardy/Williams play 2nd ruck, Allen moves between forward and back.

2: A combination of Allen/Darling/Barrass in 2nd ruck

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Have patience. He laid a match saving run down tackle then kicked the sealer.

I’m not overly bullish on Petch - but a late game chase down tackle is about as good a sign as I’ve seen from him that he might make it

 

[Priddis Is Done]

It's hard for Vardy to party with all this negative energy.

Surely there's at least 4 rucks in the WAFL to pick from, that would give a better account of themselves, have at leaat 2 hitouts and more than 3 possessions in a game, to select in a mid season draft.

The party was snuffed in 18 for him.

 

[Bender_]

Petch did his best to stay in the game until the end - it shows character whether he's crud or not. Things didn't work for him for 95% of the game but he didn't give up and that's a good trait.

Regardless my only change is JJ in for Petch (build up some form in the WAFL).

By round 6 Winder will be in on the HFF so Jones, Cripps and Langdon best make hay whilst the sun shines before making way for him.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

I still can’t even get my head around Petch being on an AFL list, he is not a walk up start at any WAFL club.

That's simply untrue.

I was very impressed with Petch at WAFL level the last season it was an option to spend any time there. He'd be best 22 at every WAFL club.

I feel that he suffered the most out of any player on the list in terms of not having reserves to play in last season. He's still very raw. He'll be rightly dropped this week for Jones but I haven't given up hope that he can develop into a handy player.

 

[THE A5]

That's simply untrue.

I was very impressed with Petch at WAFL level the last season it was an option to spend any time there. He'd be best 22 at every WAFL club.

I feel that he suffered the most out of any player on the list in terms of not having reserves to play in last season. He's still very raw. He'll be rightly dropped this week for Jones but I haven't given up hope that he can develop into a handy player.

Lets not forget he scored 21 goals from 20 games in 19. You'd cop that from a 20 year old forward thats playing behind 4-5 gun forwards. His development stalled drastically last season due to injuries and no WAFL. Like you said, WAFL footy is as important to developing young players. In hindsight him working his way into the side via strong WAFL form would have been the best for him. I think he has enough there to one day to be a b22 player.

 

[FreeTK]

Lets not forget he scored 21 goals from 20 games in 19. You'd cop that from a 20 year old forward thats playing behind 4-5 gun forwards. His development stalled drastically last season due to injuries and no WAFL. Like you said, WAFL footy is as important to developing young players. In hindsight him working his way into the side via strong WAFL form would have been the best for him. I think he has enough there to one day to be a b22 player.

I reckon he got picked on merit based on form from the pre-season games.

Langdon and Petch had better games than Jones, and got picked on that basis, given none of them have a whole lot of exposed form to work with.

I'd still back Petch in for another week to be honest. You can't just drop a guy for one bad game in round 1 of the season. He would have had his review today, or tomorrow. Give him his feedback and things to work on, and an opportunity to apply it this weekend.

 

[The Passenger]

That’s largely the point though. Brander would likely be sh*t in the ruck but how much worse than Vardy would he be? Branders height would at least mean he got attention in the ruck and not be walked all over like a Dunkley or Grigg and I’d be fairly certain he’d impact the rest of the game more than Vardy did.

It’s not going to happen but it’s an interesting thought as it would reduce the ineffectiveness of certain positions, give us better ground cover/use of rotations. It’s about the balance of the team more than who’s preferred position is ruck.

If nothing else, feels like we gotta try something different with that role, because this hasn't worked for a long time now.

In the past you could get away with having a passenger in a circumstance like this, but not in the last five years. Not consistently against the top teams anyway. They just run so deep through their 22.

 

[THE A5]

I reckon he got picked on merit based on form from the pre-season games.

Langdon and Petch had better games than Jones, and got picked on that basis, given none of them have a whole lot of exposed form to work with.

I'd still back Petch in for another week to be honest. You can't just drop a guy for one bad game in round 1 of the season. He would have had his review today, or tomorrow. Give him his feedback and things to work on, and an opportunity to apply it this weekend.

yeah I'm torn cause I do believe in backing in youngsters but that performance sort of salvaged late in the game. I think play JJ this week.

 

[PremiershipNo4]

JJ in for me, Petrol just didn’t do anywhere near enough. We need small forwards who can tackle and create pressure goals.

 

[Mulldogg]

In terms of importance in coming years Oscar is well ahead of an ageing JK. If someone needs to pinch hit in the ruck, if we don’t go with Vardy for team balance, it should be Kennedy.

He’s 196cm and 100kg and has done some stints in the ruck (albeit about 15 years ago at the Blues). Size wise he’s more of a ruck shape than Darling at 191cm/95kg. Given it is likely JK’s last season he also has a greater degree of expendibility than Darling (29yo), Gov (29) and most certainly Allen (22).

 

[LittleGreekGod]

Vardy gets one more week for mine. English and Martin are no pushovers. Vardy has the size and strength to compete/nullify with them at the minimum. With undersized ruck substitutes we would be slaughtered when Naitanui is rested.

 

[WCE_phil]

Seriously, get Ah Chee in there to Shaun Grigg it. He's very strong for his size, has a great vertical leap and is agile. Darling rucks when the ball is up forward, Gov does it in defence and Ah Chee does it around the ground when nicnat is off. Gets him right in the thick of the action and will offer more than Vardy and stops us from going too tall.

Also still allows us to experiment with the Allen/Waterman forward to back thing when barrass or mcgovern need a stint.