Chris Scott's legacy if he gags in another finals series?

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So now a report completely based on the journalist’s digging from the AFL, not from Geelong, is being interpreted as the club asking for a mulligan?

No offence but no-one was beating Melbourne last night. No virus probably means a 9-goal loss instead of 14.


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So now a report completely based on the journalist’s digging from the AFL, not from Geelong, is being interpreted as the club asking for a mulligan?

Having said that, it was pretty lame for Scott to say in the presser …”There’s something that will come out in future weeks that explains the performance”… and next sentence….”but I don’t want to be seen to be making excuses”… except you’ve just done exactly that…. such a sook - you’ve just been spanked by 14-goals.


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In 2025 who are the players you see as being central to a Geelong flag?

Sorry, I was probably unclear. It is highly unlikely they are going to win a flag in 2025. It will be increasingly unlikely every year from now. The reason I used "3-5 years" when comparing them to North was to try to be fair to North. Nobody thinks North is going to win the flag next year or the year after, but 3-5 years is a bit more reasonable. I still think Geelong is more likely to have a flag than North between now and 3-5 years from now, because I think Geelong can still win a flag in the next 1-2 years - if everything goes right for them. I think it is unlikely Geelong is still going to be in the window after 2023 (but it is hard to completely rule it out , given the gravity defying abilities). Clearly they need to strike very soon, and it may even be too late already, but not so much that they should jump into the rebuild right away (IMO).

Heading into 2022 it’s chalk and cheese which is why it’s hard to see Geelong contending for a very long time beyond 2022.

I agree, but the question is what gives them the best chance of winning a flag over the next 5 years. Is it to roll the dice again on trying to do it with the current list, or do they rebuild right now? If I was a Cat's fan, I'd be wanting for them to have at least one more crack, and possibly even more, depending on how 2022 goes and which players succumb to old father time the quickest.
 
Sorry, I was probably unclear. It is highly unlikely they are going to win a flag in 2025. It will be increasingly unlikely every year from now. The reason I used "3-5 years" when comparing them to North was to try to be fair to North. Nobody thinks North is going to win the flag next year or the year after, but 3-5 years is a bit more reasonable. I still think Geelong is more likely to have a flag than North between now and 3-5 years from now, because I think Geelong can still win a flag in the next 1-2 years - if everything goes right for them. I think it is unlikely Geelong is still going to be in the window after 2023 (but it is hard to completely rule it out , given the gravity defying abilities). Clearly they need to strike very soon, and it may even be too late already, but not so much that they should jump into the rebuild right away (IMO).



I agree, but the question is what gives them the best chance of winning a flag over the next 5 years. Is it to roll the dice again on trying to do it with the current list, or do they rebuild right now? If I was a Cat's fan, I'd be wanting for them to have at least one more crack, and possibly even more, depending on how 2022 goes and which players succumb to old father time the quickest.

Yes, I think they have no choice but to have a crack in 2022. They don’t have the draft picks or players with trade value they’d be willing to lose to boost their draft position. I’d much rather have Geelong’s list for 2022, it’s debatable for 2023, but from 2024 onwards I think North’s list will be in better shape. Their midfield should be outstanding in a couple of years plus key pillars in McKay and Larkey are 23yo and look the goods.


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I think the difference is when others were moved on post-2011 there was always the nucleus of young guns in Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor and Danger (2016 onwards). This time as guns move on over the next few years the quality of the core nucleus is very questionable.

Unfortunately Geelong’s drafting from 2010 onwards has overall been pretty poor - here are their first 2 draft picks each year;

2010: Smedts (15). Guthrie (23)
2011: Hamling (32). Kersten (34)
2012: Thurlow (16) Hartman (77)
2013: Lang (16) Jansen (36)
2014: Cockatoo (10). Gregson (47)
2015: Gardner (59). Menegola (56)
2016: Parfitt (26). Stewart (40)
2017: Fogarty (22). Kelly (24)
2018: Clark (15). Jarvis (48)
2019: Stephens (16). Dekoning (19)
2020: Holmes (20). Neale (33)

So Stephen Wells reputation was unchallenged thanks to Geelong’s dynasty, but the poor recruiting on the whole from Wells in the last decade has left a gaping chasm in their list in the 22-28yo demographic, and there seems to be very difficult times ahead as a result.


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I don’t think you are reading the drafting correctly Noid.

From your list of picks 10, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 26, 32, 33, 34, 36, 40, 47, 48

So 19 picks of any real value in the first 3 rounds of the draft. Only one a top 10 pick and only 5 others in the top 18 picks(genuine first round,) and 9 genuine second round picks.

These picks produce:

2 indisputably high class players Kelly, Stewart

3 long term strong AFL level regulars Guthrie, Parfitt, Menegola

1 Premiership player Hamling(cut down by injury, genuinely good player otherwise)

2 players currently being picked in top 4 teams in finals teams on merit Cockatoo, Gardner

1 player getting regularly selected for Carlton, Fogarty

6 too early to determine, no real reason to think they are poor picks Clark, Jarvis, Stephens, de Koning, Holmes, Neale

7 players you could fairly describe as not making the grade ultimately, Kersten, Gregson, Lang, Jansen, Thurlow, Hartman, Smedts.

If you compare that fairly with what other clubs are achieving after adjusting for the draft picks they have had, I am confident it stacks up well. The problem is not in Geelong’s drafting, far from it. Hamling, Gardner were not getting a look in, have since done well at strong clubs. Cockatoo devastated by injuries at Cats now up and running at Lions. Fogarty was more or less discarded.

The strike rate of 9 current genuine best 22 players and 7 failures for those picks is not by any means bad. Where I think the Cats are going wrong is not playing these guys, and playing all the mature age recruits from other clubs ahead of them. If the Cats had just taken their first and second round picks every season, so 22 picks in the first two rounds rather than the 16 they have taken, there is every reason to think they’d be currently sitting on a deeper list with a much better age profile. OK, they’d have had some years where they likely finished lower on the ladder, but guess what - better draft picks. And then if they put more games into the guys they drafted, more experienced and better developed young players. So they may have retained all the guys capable of holding a best 22 spot, and expected an extra 3-4 of them and a few better ones taken from top 10 picks etc.

They will lose maybe 3 young players in the trade period this season precisely because they are not being played. It will shock nobody if some of those become long term regular AFL level players, AND play in winning finals teams for other clubs.
 
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Sometimes Karma can be a b***h

In my view no club in the history of the AFL, has been given more advantages than Chris Scotts Geelong in the last 10 years, and further from that point, no premierships in that time is a disaster, par, would have been 5 flags, let me explain.

No other club trains on the ground that it plays on, and no other ground is as unique in dimensions as KP, this gifts an advantage to Geelong over every other team, and on its own adds 2 wins a season minimum.

They have a captain, who is celebrated for the fact, that their main goal every time he gets the ball in congestion is to draw a free kick. What's worse he has been enabled by the league and rewarded for his ducking. He is the most free kicked footballer for high tackles in the history of the AFL. This, in a era were the dangers of head high contact are clear and proven.

The fact S Hocking could be the football boss of the cats, and then go and run the whole AFL, and then go back to the cats as the football boss, is a complete joke. But then if you add the fact that he changed a heap of rules ( to promote increased scoring, he failed ) to suit Geelong is incredible. Geelong had a man on the inside of the league and blew it. No other club had a heads up as to rule changes more than Geelong, and no other club got a say in how those rules should change more than Geelong, and no other club had a chance to trial and understand those rules other than Geelong.

They have been gifted the best father son players in history, perhaps the greatest player ever GAJ, in addition to Hawkins and then they benefited further by getting Danger, the best player in the AFL at the time, for a pittance of his market price, due to his wish to come home.

All these things collectively, no club has ever had at the same time, the fact that he could not win a flag with all these advantages, is a case study of incompetence for the whole club, but especially Chris Scott.

One way rivalry.
 

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Like Selwood a lot but jeez this is bordering on a delusional take after that.

Even in this response he's ducking. There is one premier each year and 17 teams that aren't. If you want to look at win loss ratios it's only finals ratios that matter and 8 and 15 as skipper says fail. Shame no one's had the conversation with him. Everyone's always been busy pissing in his pocket.
 
Yes, I think they have no choice but to have a crack in 2022. They don’t have the draft picks or players with trade value they’d be willing to lose to boost their draft position. I’d much rather have Geelong’s list for 2022, it’s debatable for 2023, but from 2024 onwards I think North’s list will be in better shape. Their midfield should be outstanding in a couple of years plus key pillars in McKay and Larkey are 23yo and look the goods.

I agree that by 2024 North could well have a better list than Geelong does in 2024. However will it be good enough to win prelims and have a crack at a flag is very much up for debate, and that's why Geelong would IMO be silly to go the full rebuild right now, as getting to the point you can win prelims (like Cats did last year) is bloody hard, takes a lot of things to go right, and many rebuilds fall short of getting there (i'm somewhat concerned about North's current reliance on their older players who are very close to retirement, so their new guns need to replace them rather than supplement them, and that can make it hard to make that step into prelim-winning mode in a short period). If you're even a little bit close to winning prelims right now, then that should be your immediate focus, and I fully expect it to remain Geelong's.

In any case, it sounds like we are largely in agreement.
 
Cue in the rack, viruses, anal leakage...
A wee had our shot and missed’ would be nice
Last week it was broken fingers, the week before a bad prawn, this week virus…..excuse excuse excuse, and how did dangers broken fingers magically mend in a week…..magic beans
 
why do people keep saying it was Geelong making the excuse? It was Tom Morris and the AFL. Clearly even if we had a fully fit best 22 including Stewart etc we still would have lost easily. Also rich that Richmond supporters are the ones bringing it up after the "gastro outbreak" of 2018. Sometimes teams shit the bed on the field, it doesn't mean they also shit the bed in the hotel as well.
 
I have to say, whilst I've never been Scott's biggest fan, the club's recruitment philosophy has lost me now. We have SO MANY over 30 plodders and will only get worse as time goes on, I really hope we decide to go cut ties with a lot of these older players.. Gotta go backwards to go forwards.
 
Just for those at the back that couldn’t hear it:

the story about players being ill was produced by Tom Morris and his quoted source was not Chris Scott, or Joel Selwood, or Paul Koulouriotis, or David Mensch, or Bruce Lindner, or any other Geelong figure.

he was given that information by someone within the AFL and then wrote a story about it. Crazy but that’s how media works.
 
One grand final in last ten seasons.
It time to part ways in this relationship for club and coach.
Still been a good coach given been in finals nearly every season but if you want to win premierships you want to be making more than one grand final a decade with a list that been strong throughout all that period.
I suspect he will make the call himself because a lot of players either at end of career or mighty close so the list needs a lot of new youngsters in next couple of years and if you been there as long as he has, if you not wanting to go down that road fully for many more seasons then it best take a break for your own good to freshen up. He even said himself it is a grind to be coach for so long. Will not be surprised one bit if last year on contract mutually agreed to be paid out and part ways on good terms.
 
One grand final in last ten seasons.
It time to part ways in this relationship for club and coach.
Still been a good coach given been in finals nearly every season but if you want to win premierships you want to be making more than one grand final a decade with a list that been strong throughout all that period.
I suspect he will make the call himself because a lot of players either at end of career or mighty close so the list needs a lot of new youngsters in next couple of years and if you been there as long as he has, if you not wanting to go down that road fully for many more seasons then it best take a break for your own good to freshen up. He even said himself it is a grind to be coach for so long. Will not be surprised one bit if last year on contract mutually agreed to be paid out and part ways on good terms.

I can see that, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t at least short term involved in some sort of rebuild. Yes he’s not proven at it but neither are any available coaches really. Clarkson I guess started with a non finals quality team but it was certainly full of finals quality talent. It’s a big journey into the unknown to just start from the ground up with a more than likely untried coach
 
I can see that, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t at least short term involved in some sort of rebuild. Yes he’s not proven at it but neither are any available coaches really. Clarkson I guess started with a non finals quality team but it was certainly full of finals quality talent. It’s a big journey into the unknown to just start from the ground up with a more than likely untried coach
C'mon down home, Kenny Hinkley....
 

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Chris Scott's legacy if he gags in another finals series?

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