Chris Scott's legacy if he gags in another finals series?

[Noidnadroj]

I don’t think you are reading the drafting correctly Noid.

From your list of picks 10, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 26, 32, 33, 34, 36, 40, 47, 48

So 19 picks of any real value in the first 3 rounds of the draft. Only one a top 10 pick and only 5 others in the top 18 picks(genuine first round,) and 9 genuine second round picks.

These picks produce:

2 indisputably high class players Kelly, Stewart

3 long term strong AFL level regulars Guthrie, Parfitt, Menegola

1 Premiership player Hamling(cut down by injury, genuinely good player otherwise)

2 players currently being picked in top 4 teams in finals teams on merit Cockatoo, Gardner

1 player getting regularly selected for Carlton, Fogarty

6 too early to determine, no real reason to think they are poor picks Clark, Jarvis, Stephens, de Koning, Holmes, Neale

7 players you could fairly describe as not making the grade ultimately, Kersten, Gregson, Lang, Jansen, Thurlow, Hartman, Smedts.

If you compare that fairly with what other clubs are achieving after adjusting for the draft picks they have had, I am confident it stacks up well. The problem is not in Geelong’s drafting, far from it. Hamling, Gardner were not getting a look in, have since done well at strong clubs. Cockatoo devastated by injuries at Cats now up and running at Lions. Fogarty was more or less discarded.

The strike rate of 9 current genuine best 22 players and 7 failures for those picks is not by any means bad. Where I think the Cats are going wrong is not playing these guys, and playing all the mature age recruits from other clubs ahead of them. If the Cats had just taken their first and second round picks every season, so 22 picks in the first two rounds rather than the 16 they have taken, there is every reason to think they’d be currently sitting on a deeper list with a much better age profile. OK, they’d have had some years where they likely finished lower on the ladder, but guess what - better draft picks. And then if they put more games into the guys they drafted, more experienced and better developed young players. So they may have retained all the guys capable of holding a best 22 spot, and expected an extra 3-4 of them and a few better ones taken from top 10 picks etc.

They will lose maybe 3 young players in the trade period this season precisely because they are not being played. It will shock nobody if some of those become long term regular AFL level players, AND play in winning finals teams for other clubs.

Not sure how it stacks up? The biggest worry is they’ve had 8 x top-20 picks. 4 confirmed failures is really hurting them as they should be aged late-20’s and in their prime. 4 other recent top-20 picks too early to tell. They desperately need 2 or 3 guns from those 4. Clark may be gone in the off-season so leaves 3.

The thing that might save the Cats is free agency. Earmark a couple of free agents they can secure in 2-years when they have huge salary cap space post a heap of high priced retirements. Don’t need to give up draft picks so can insert a couple of guns around 24-25yo looking for a quiet surfing lifestyle on the coast ala Danger and Cameron - I’m sure they’re already onto it as it’s their best way to avoid what looks like a complete implosion 2023-24 onwards looking at the demographic of their current list and lack of draft picks.




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[Noidnadroj]

Just for those at the back that couldn’t hear it:

the story about players being ill was produced by Tom Morris and his quoted source was not Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

, or Joel Selwood, or Paul Koulouriotis

Paul Koulouriotis

Age

42

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.2

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.2

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.8

2star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.0

3star

, or David Mensch, or Bruce Lindner, or any other Geelong figure.

he was given that information by someone within the AFL and then wrote a story about it. Crazy but that’s how media works.

So in his press conference when Chris Scott alluded to something that will become apparent soon as to the struggles Geelong had in the PF, what was he referring to do you think ? Of course every single journo thought : “I’d better find out ASAP what Chris Scott is referring to?”. And walah, Tom Morris found out. So how did Tom Morris know there was a story to be told ..? Because Chris Scott made it crystal clear 2-minutes into his post game press conference there was an excuse for the players.

Chris Scott’s a very smart guy. All he had to do was plant the seed.


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[SunshineBoy]

So in his press conference when Chris Scott alluded to something that will become apparent soon as to the struggles Geelong had in the PF, what was he referring to do you think ? Of course every single journo thought : “I’d better find out ASAP what Chris Scott is referring to?”. And walah, Tom Morris found out. So how did Tom Morris know there was a story to be told ..? Because Chris Scott made it crystal clear 2-minutes into his post game press conference there was an excuse for the players.

Chris Scott’s a very smart guy. All he had to do was plant the seed.


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Well he is the smartest man the room after all

 

[Noidnadroj]

I’m 97% sure the virus story leak came from within Geelong.

“Oh no, we’d rather not comment… but the following players were affected”

You don’t need to look too hard - it came from Chris Scott 1:44 into his press conference - and it was his own comments prior to any questions being asked: “There’s a few things I won’t speak about tonight that will become clearer over the next few weeks, suffice to say I’m proud of the way our guys endured and just completely ran out of steam”

In other words, we had a few players with a virus but I’d rather not use that as an excuse … except I just have. Now one of you journo’s hurry up and find out what I’m talking about … haha. I don’t particularly care if he mentioned it, but let’s not pretend he wasn’t making excuses and wasn’t wanting everyone to find out about it ASAP.




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[QuietB]

You don’t need to look too hard - it came from Chris Scott 1:44 into his press conference - and it was his own comments prior to any questions being asked: “There’s a few things I won’t speak about tonight that will become clearer over the next few weeks, suffice to say I’m proud of the way our guys endured and just completely ran out of steam”

In other words, we had a few players with a virus but I’d rather not use that as an excuse … except I just have. Now one of you journo’s hurry up and find out what I’m talking about … haha. I don’t particularly care if he mentioned it, but let’s not pretend he wasn’t making excuses and wasn’t wanting everyone to find out about it ASAP.




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We know Danger had a broken hand. I’ll happily bet it is nothing more than injuries. Players have been in CoVid bubbles - how do they pick anything up?

Scott will get his extension

 

[Infamy]

I can’t answer them. I’m not a club staffer and have no experience in it my point is merely that I don’t see any benefit in just immediately sending Scott on his way at the end of his contract because he hasn’t rebuilt a list from the bottom before. Few if any coaches have ever done it successfully and stayed in the job or coached regularly again or put their hand up to look for another job. So it isn’t as simple as saying goodbye to Scott and getting a specialist rebuilder in. He’s as well qualified as anyone really.

Let me get this straight, you wouldn't be surprised if Scott is kept around in the short term for a rebuild, but when asked why you believe that and what you think that rebuild looks like, you can't answer it because you aren't in an official capacity at the club? The same person who replies with your opinion to almost every single post criticising Geelong in this thread and then when it's actually asked for, you just avoid the question?

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

This is how we think of Geelong. View attachment 1233954

That's nice, but we don't think of you at all.

If we did, you'd be even further down the ladder.

 

[PhatBoy]

Let me get this straight, you wouldn't be surprised if Scott is kept around in the short term for a rebuild, but when asked why you believe that and what you think that rebuild looks like, you can't answer it because you aren't in an official capacity at the club? The same person who replies with your opinion to almost every single post criticising Geelong in this thread and then when it's actually asked for, you just avoid the question?

Just because you read my replies doesn’t mean I make them to every criticism. I don’t know what our rebuild looks like. What do you want me to give, an answer I don’t have?

we have a coach under contract who has won a premiership and missed the finals once in 11 seasons, so yes, amazingly, astonishingly, even without thinking about it, I can say with a degree of confidence that it is likely he will stay for at least part of the next phase. I don’t have to know jack shit about football or club management to make that assessment.

what I do need to have some idea about, to suggest what our next phase looks like, is who a likely coaching candidate would be (I have no idea), what sort of retention decisions we make - again, I have no idea because we haven’t had to do this before in my lifetime - what sort of time frame we look at to try and get ‘up’ again. Once more, I haven’t really had to go through any more than 1-2 seasons of being outside finals in my adult life. For every club that has had a strategy go well, another has had the same strategy blow up in its face. So yeah, I CAN say with a reasonable amount of confidence that Scott will probably be involved at least at the start of whatever our next ‘move’ is, but no I don’t know what that move will look like.

and for ****s sake at what point do people stop this ‘you reply to every Geeling thread or criticism’: well no shit, who’s threads am I going to respond to, the Suns ones? The Roos? I don’t have a vested interest in those clubs however I do have one in Geelong so if I read something I agree with I will say ‘I agree with this’ and if I read something that’s blatantly false or I think it’s wrong, of course I’ll reply.

 

[PhatBoy]

So in his press conference when Chris Scott alluded to something that will become apparent soon as to the struggles Geelong had in the PF, what was he referring to do you think ? Of course every single journo thought : “I’d better find out ASAP what Chris Scott is referring to?”. And walah, Tom Morris found out. So how did Tom Morris know there was a story to be told ..? Because Chris Scott made it crystal clear 2-minutes into his post game press conference there was an excuse for the players.

Chris Scott’s a very smart guy. All he had to do was plant the seed.


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If it was that simply I doubt Morris would have gone straight to the AFL to make his enquiries.

he’s damned if he does damned if he doesn’t. Clearly from what’s been reported there was a legitimate issue (it’s not an excuse - those players could have been at 200 per cent fitness and it wouldn’t have made a dent) among a large group of players but now because he’s only alluded to it and not cited it as a reason for the loss - of course it wasn’t the reason for the loss - and someone else has reported it, it becomes a Geelong led excuse making exercise.

 

[Stan Judkins]

It can’t be because it looks like excuse making.
The teams we host at KP are all the interstate sides and the smaller Melbourne sides and for most of the last decade those sides have been weak anyway and we’d more than likely beat them anywhere. The idea that we are advantages is a furphy and totally baseless

furphy?
Like the 3 wombats that kept you warm, until the rescue chopper arrived?

 

[PhatBoy]

furphy?
Like the 3 wombats that kept you warm, until the rescue chopper arrived?

I was thinking more the time I beat Ali on a points decision as an amateur

 

[nineteen eighty]

Am I the only one that thinks "the AFL" is actually Geelong's greatest protagonist and new CEO...c'mon down S.Hocking!

AFL my arse...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not sure how it stacks up? The biggest worry is they’ve had 8 x top-20 picks. 4 confirmed failures is really hurting them as they should be aged late-20’s and in their prime. 4 other recent top-20 picks too early to tell. They desperately need 2 or 3 guns from those 4. Clark may be gone in the off-season so leaves 3.

The thing that might save the Cats is free agency. Earmark a couple of free agents they can secure in 2-years when they have huge salary cap space post a heap of high priced retirements. Don’t need to give up draft picks so can insert a couple of guns around 24-25yo looking for a quiet surfing lifestyle on the coast ala Danger and Cameron - I’m sure they’re already onto it as it’s their best way to avoid what looks like a complete implosion 2023-24 onwards looking at the demographic of their current list and lack of draft picks.




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Let’s focus on the range of picks Cats had. Picks 10-20, so an 11 pick range, then separate the players taken 2010-2015 into 4 categories:

1. top class - marquee wage type player

2. very good - long career, well above average AFL player,

3. 100+ AFL games(or well on track for that)

4. and we can define everything apart from that a failure.

Year	top class	very good	100+ games	failure
2010	Lynch	Isaac Smith, Brodie Smith	Atley	Gorringe Cook Tape Smedts Jacobs Watson Pitt
2011	T Greene, T Adams	Docherty, B Ellis, Dev Smith	Crozier	Sumner, Sheridan, Clay Smith, McKenzie, Kavanagh
2012	Grundy	Daniher, Corr		Menzel, Jaksch, Lonergan, Garner, Thurlow, Simpson, Kennedy, Broomhead
2013	Cripps	Sheed, Zac Jones	Dunstan, Acres	Freeman, Lennon, McCarthy, Lang, Apeness, Leslie
2014	Lever, Heeney	Duggan, Weller, Langford	Cockatoo? Laverde	C Ellis, Garlett, Durdin, Boekhurst
2015	MacKay	Curnow, Milera, Hipwood, Doedee, Gresham, Burton, Himmelberg, Rioli	Fiorini, Kennedy
Totals	8	20	8	30

So you can see in the range the Cats were taking their top 20 picks, you get 28 top class or very good players, and 38 who outright fail or could be argued never become at least very good players. Remember too Cats picks in this range were below average for the range, so the expected results are below average.

Now you can say the Cats took 4 in this range all of whom we can now see didn’t make it - for the Cats at least. But really you have to look at the club’s drafting in totality.

From 2010 onwards, they have drafted:

Guthrie, Simpkin, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Blicavs, Kolodjashnij, Walker, Cockatoo, Gardner, Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart, Ratugolea, Narkle, Henry, ZGuthrie, Simpson, Fogarty, Kelly, Miers, Clark, Atkins, Close, Holmes…

...who have played in finals at Geelong or elsewhere, or held down a best 22 position for a season or more at Geelong or elsewhere. There are also a few they have drafted who look like being good but are too new to have shown up yet, eg De Koning.

You would typically have 4 or so strong players left over from pre-2010 drafts in 2021. To have a good list, you would probably need to have drafted in those 11 drafts:

3-4 current or future marquee wage types: Kelly, Stewart.

About 10-12 above average AFL player types: Guthrie, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Blicavs, Menegola, Parfitt, Henry.

Several other role players who can consistently play AFL without bringing their team undone: Simpkin, Wlaker, Kolodjashnij, Gardner, Atkins and several others.

Now you can see they are a few short in the top 2 categories. I would say this is because they have swapped good picks for Dangerfield, Stanley, Touhy, Henderson, Higgins, Dahlhaus, Cameron, Ablett, Caddy, and whoever else I can’t recall. It is not because they haven’t drafted well enough.

 

[BF Tiger]

That's nice, but we don't think of you at all.

If we did, you'd be even further down the ladder.

Way to miss the point.

We don’t think of Geelong as down the (step)ladder… Geelong is the stepladder. Do I have to explain it further to you?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Let’s focus on the range of picks Cats had. Picks 10-20, so an 11 pick range, then separate the players taken 2010-2015 into 4 categories:

1. top class - marquee wage type player

2. very good - long career, well above average AFL player,

3. 100+ AFL games(or well on track for that)

4. and we can define everything apart from that a failure.

Year	top class	very good	100+ games	failure
2010	Lynch	Isaac Smith, Brodie Smith	Atley	Gorringe Cook Tape Smedts Jacobs Watson Pitt
2011	T Greene, T Adams	Docherty, B Ellis, Dev Smith	Crozier	Sumner, Sheridan, Clay Smith, McKenzie, Kavanagh
2012	Grundy	Daniher, Corr		Menzel, Jaksch, Lonergan, Garner, Thurlow, Simpson, Kennedy, Broomhead
2013	Cripps	Sheed, Zac Jones	Dunstan, Acres	Freeman, Lennon, McCarthy, Lang, Apeness, Leslie
2014	Lever, Heeney	Duggan, Weller, Langford	Cockatoo? Laverde	C Ellis, Garlett, Durdin, Boekhurst
2015	MacKay	Curnow, Milera, Hipwood, Doedee, Gresham, Burton, Himmelberg, Rioli	Fiorini, Kennedy
Totals	8	20	8	30

So you can see in the range the Cats were taking their top 20 picks, you get 28 top class or very good players, and 38 who outright fail or could be argued never become at least very good players. Remember too Cats picks in this range were below average for the range, so the expected results are below average.

Now you can say the Cats took 4 in this range all of whom we can now see didn’t make it - for the Cats at least. But really you have to look at the club’s drafting in totality.

From 2010 onwards, they have drafted:

Guthrie, Simpkin, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Blicavs, Kolodjashnij, Walker, Cockatoo, Gardner, Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart, Ratugolea, Narkle, Henry, ZGuthrie, Simpson, Fogarty, Kelly, Miers, Clark, Atkins, Close, Holmes…

...who have played in finals at Geelong or elsewhere, or held down a best 22 position for a season or more at Geelong or elsewhere. There are also a few they have drafted who look like being good but are too new to have shown up yet, eg De Koning.

You would typically have 4 or so strong players left over from pre-2010 drafts in 2021. To have a good list, you would probably need to have drafted in those 11 drafts:

3-4 current or future marquee wage types: Kelly, Stewart.

About 10-12 above average AFL player types: Guthrie, Hamling, McCarthy, Bews, Blicavs, Menegola, Parfitt, Henry.

Several other role players who can consistently play AFL without bringing their team undone: Simpkin, Wlaker, Kolodjashnij, Gardner, Atkins and several others.

Now you can see they are a few short in the top 2 categories. I would say this is because they have swapped good picks for Dangerfield, Stanley, Touhy, Henderson, Higgins, Dahlhaus, Cameron, Ablett, Caddy, and whoever else I can’t recall. It is not because they haven’t drafted well enough.

Fair call, but on drafting since 2010 they’ve been no better than average, even taking into account they’ve had no top-10 picks. Stephen Wells was a genius for a few seasons to get the nucleus of their dynasty team, but you’d have to suggest not anything special for a decade in regards to drafting and list management.


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[Lunchlady Doris]

Way to miss the point.

We don’t think of Geelong as down the (step)ladder… Geelong is the stepladder. Do I have to explain it further to you?

*whoosh*

 

[theyellowsash]

Which got them 12th place.



Which got them to a prelim.



By the logic in this thread, anything that doesn't get you a flag will be used in hindsight to claim you completely stuffed up your future either way. If you do trade for a Mitchell and don't win a flag you'll have stuffed up your future by misreading your chances. If you don't trade for a Mitchell, but don't start a rebuild, you'll have stuffed up your future by misreading your chances. If you start a rebuild and still don't win a flag in 5 years you'll have stuffed up by failing to take your chances when you had them.

Geelong have certainly gone all in. You have to really, as hedging too much just increases the chances that a somewhat risky strategy isn't going to pan out. Pretty much every club hangs on too long, because at the end of the day, you still have better chances of winning a flag after making a prelim than you do going a full rebuild. The fact that its risky doesn't offset the risk of an uncertain rebuild. I'd agree Geelong are an outside chance of grabbing that flag that eluded them for 10 years now with the current list, but I'd bet on Geelong winning a flag in 3-5 years over North Melbourne.

That under 27 group also got us to 3 flags though

 

[PhatBoy]

Fair call, but on drafting since 2010 they’ve been no better than average, even taking into account they’ve had no top-10 picks. Stephen Wells was a genius for a few seasons to get the nucleus of their dynasty team, but you’d have to suggest not anything special for a decade in regards to drafting and list management.


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Without analysing it too closely my immediate impression of what we’ve drafted during that time is we have done better than average with those 10-25 picks and getting players who are elite or bordering on it, and worse than average with picks below that where you are rarely going to find superstars but can get some good solid 150 gamers who are consistent best 22

 

[theyellowsash]

If Chris decides to double down and go again with the same group next year then he is delusional and it will get really ugly.

He's done that for the last 10 years. He keeps thinking he's got the gameplan and just needs better players. Every year its lose a prelim, get 1-2 rejects, go into the next year with the same gameplan. Rinse and repeat.

 

[The Dougster]

He's done that for the last 10 years. He keeps thinking he's got the gameplan and just needs better players. Every year its lose a prelim, get 1-2 rejects, go into the next year with the same gameplan. Rinse and repeat.

Reminiscent of his brother with us. The ol' no plan B

 

[theyellowsash]

Reminiscent of his brother with us. The ol' no plan B

Tbf thats most coaches. Few coaches truly change up their gameplan to any significant degree. Think about it, how many coaches are good enough to take their team to a dynasty or at least multiple flags, then drop of the face of the earth and never get close again once their gamestyle gets broken and the players retire.

 

[WillHayward]

Cats now the furthest team away from a flag in the comp.

A long time in the wilderness coming up.

 

[hk89]

That under 27 group also got us to 3 flags though

Yup, and I'd say most people would consider Cats to have underperformed given their list, and Richmond to have perhaps overperformed. How many flags Richmond managed to win with their list doesn't really seem that relevant to whether Geelong should pack it now and start the rebuild though.

If anything, it puts even more pressure on Geelong to keep going with the current strategy. It also ups the stakes for failure for the fans. Hawthorn for example could afford to take the risk of trying to push for another flag after 2016, because even if it extended the time to our next flag (which it almost certainly has), the fans had 3 semi recent flags to keep them happy. Richmond are in the same boat now. Geelong fans have to go back a bit longer than Richmond and Hawthorn fans to recall their last, and that brings a bit more angst to these type of decisions when they don't pan out. Mind you, Geelong fans still have it good in this regard compared to fans from a lot of other clubs.

 

[hk89]

Not sure how it stacks up? The biggest worry is they’ve had 8 x top-20 picks.

Given all but one of those have been in the 11-20 range (and that 1 was 10th), you shouldn't really expect much. Only 47% of picks in that 11-20 range play 100+ games. If you have 200 games as the threshold for an absolutely nailed pick, then you'd expect only just over 2 players (2.16 players to be exact) to reach that level out of the 8 they picked. It is easy to overestimate how surefire those double digit first round picks actually are. Geelong have done at least as well as expected at the draft IMO, possibly better than expected, but it is hard to fully assess that until careers are done and dusted.

 

[Partridge]

He's done that for the last 10 years. He keeps thinking he's got the gameplan and just needs better players. Every year its lose a prelim, get 1-2 rejects, go into the next year with the same gameplan. Rinse and repeat.

The problem is the core of the team - Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, and Guthrie - were all there when he arrived and are still the core of the team a decade later. Far from ideal I would have thought.