Traded Chris Yarran [to Richmond for Pick 19]

[Sweet Jesus]

Dermi said on the run home" Hawthorn should move heaven and earth to get Chris Yarran to the club"
In 2014 Chris Yarran had the highest ball retention rate for Kicks inside 50 in the entire league.
So this talk of Yarran not being quality is absolute rubbish.
He has elite foot skills and elite pace. Very few players have his skill set.
If Hawthorn do get him may as well mark them down for another flag or two.

Rubbish.

As if Yarran will be 'the difference' between Hawthorn winning flags and not winning flags.

 

[Capitano_Cotch]

This is the worst thread on Bigfooty, and that's saying something.
Yarran will be going to Richmond, it's pretty obvious.
Why don't people stick to discussing actual trades? I'd be willing to give Carlton our second rounder this year and next year too. Seems fair to me.

 

[davis_756]

Why couldn't you be contending within four years?

We need a couple of extra KP forwards, another KP back to go with Weitering & some upcoming mids to come through with cripps and graham.

Now maybe we get carlisle for the henderson pick and a couple of mids with the picks around 20-22, still need a KP forward next year and either Jaschk or sosos to develop into the other KP forward and a few years development to be pushing good sides. That is 3-4 years time, maybe we are pushing for a finals berth or just scraping in by then, either way if we are struggling to retain players at that stage we won't be pushing for a flag.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

We need a couple of extra KP forwards, another KP back to go with Weitering & some upcoming mids to come through with cripps and graham.

Now maybe we get carlisle for the henderson pick and a couple of mids with the picks around 20-22, still need a KP forward next year and either Jaschk or sosos to develop into the other KP forward and a few years development to be pushing good sides. That is 3-4 years time, maybe we are pushing for a finals berth or just scraping in by then, either way if we are struggling to retain players at that stage we won't be pushing for a flag.

Four years is a long time.

 

[4thchicken]

When did I ever say we have built our lists in a similar way? I just highlighted the fact that our oldest players are nowhere near as old as Hawthorn's, and there are far less of them that are 28 and over.

And you're comparing a nine year period to a three year period, of course there's going to be differences. Also who said we're just going to keep relying on the draft and be inactive throughout the trade period? You've also shot yourself in the foot because Hawthorn didn't bring in anyone during the first two years of making finals (which is similar to what Richmond have done).

You're argument has so many flaws and the point you're trying to make doesn't even concern me

actually the hawks did bring in a host of non-18yos in the few seasons prior to 07 -> guerra, dew, croad, jacobs, nixon, ball, scott, taylor, gilham, mclgynn, - just didn't think it was necessary to go too far back. The 08 flag was unexpected but as soon as they dropped off in 2009/stagnated, the hawks started being aggressive with filling needs.

The tigers have stagnated for 3 years now - what have they done?

You compare richmond's age profile with the hawks as if they are at the same point in the cycle. Clearly they are not.

If the hawks window closes in 2 years, most hawks fans will accept it as part of the cycle as they've already had a very very good run and its time to rebuild/top up. If the tigers window closes in 2 years and they face a rebuild/topup period, will richmond fans be satisfied?

 

[Gosha]

actually the hawks did bring in a host of non-18yos in the few seasons prior to 07 -> guerra, dew, croad, jacobs, nixon, ball, scott, taylor, gilham, mclgynn, - just didn't think it was necessary to go too far back. The 08 flag was unexpected but as soon as they dropped off in 2009/stagnated, the hawks started being aggressive with filling needs.

The tigers have stagnated for 3 years now - what have they done?

You compare richmond's age profile with the hawks as if they are at the same point in the cycle. Clearly they are not.

If the hawks window closes in 2 years, most hawks fans will accept it as part of the cycle as they've already had a very very good run and its time to rebuild/top up. If the tigers window closes in 2 years and they face a rebuild/topup period, will richmond fans be satisfied?

Why would our window close in two years when the majority of our good players are all 26 and under?

 

[4thchicken]

Why couldn't you be contending within four years?

IF everything goes right, the blues could be contending within 4 years -> in doing so though, the flag push will largely be centred around the performances of older players (gibbs/murphy/kreuzer/thomas) + a smattering of those hitting their peak (cripps/buckley etc).

Issue there is the short window of opportunity before the blues would need to replace gibbs/murphy et al.

Imo, real contention is 5-6 years away - whilst retaining some older players is important but those that have value should be 'expendable' as part of a thorough list rebuild -> hence kreuzer should be let go if we think we can get appropriate FA compo, there is less issue with letting mid age players go (yarran, henderson etc).

 

[davis_756]

Four years is a long time.

How many KP players do you see on carlton's list that will be afl quality in 4 years time?

Rowe isn't good enough, Jammo will likely be retired & Henderson is out the door. That leaves Casboult who may or may not improve to the level required.

Now ask yourself how long it takes to develop KP talent that can match the competitions best, Surely can't expect Weitering to keep a Kennedy goalless in his first few seasons can we? 3-4 years is accurate imo unless something major changes

 

[4thchicken]

Why would our window close in two years when the majority of our good players are all 26 and under?

was a reference to the potential mini-rebuild that might be required if richmond don't start winning finals and need to start thinking about replacements for key older players IF they wait 2 years for lennon etc to hit peak levels of performance rather than aggressively trading in players for needs now.

In 2 years time, richmond will start thinking of life post houli, deledio, grigg, maric, reidwoldt etc - b/c they will all either be gone or have 1-2 years left. So by the time lennon hits his prime, he is replacing one of your current top liners rather than improving the teams overall depth. Similarly if you brought in an 18yo.

Sacrifice a player or a few draft picks whilst the current older group are at their peaks opens up the window earlier and keeps it open for longer (particularly if well list managed in the medium term)

 

[Tig22]

Actually that link falls in line with what I was saying - I've just opened up the 'peak' age earlier in recognition of the number of quality best 22 players that already contribute by age 23 (i.e. most elite players).


Whilst the analysis is good, it is somewhat limited and by nature biases the data. At the older end of the scale, the analysis is flawed as it doesnt take into account the following
- number of players retiring/being delisted/superceded from 28 onwards
- take into account increasing injury rates as players get older
- doesnt take into account listed players that fail to play a game

Not much of a drop off from 27-33? - well when you are largely looking at stats for elite players, what would you expect?

Look at individuals though, and you largely get a different picture -> from the tigers,
Newman has progressively dropped off since he was 28
foley went from playing 18 games to nothing in the space of a year (29->30)
knights is gone
tigers posters in this thread largely expect chaplin/maric to be replaced by the time they are 31.

And no it's not team specific -> From the blues pretty much all the older players with the exception of simpson have been deteriorating since 28 or so (and quite often before that) - that simpson might play till he is 33-34 without much drop off whilst all the others are gone wouldn't be captured in the sort of analysis that you linked to

That's all fair, the older end of the scale is dominated by elite players.

But we think there will be a few of our old boys either replaced by the time they are 30/31/32 (Maric, Chaplin, etc) or still pulling their weight as elite players, in particular, Deledio, Edwards, Reiwoldt. I would hope that natural progression of our younger players would keep us in contention until the end of those guys careers, especially as that is when Rance, Ellis, Martin, Cotchin, Vickery, etc will all be entering their prime. I feel like Richmond has a very well balanced list age wise. For example, when we beat Collingwood this year we were a younger side than they were, and they're in a mini-rebuild!

 

[Sweet Jesus]

IF everything goes right, the blues could be contending within 4 years -> in doing so though, the flag push will largely be centred around the performances of older players (gibbs/murphy/kreuzer/thomas) + a smattering of those hitting their peak (cripps/buckley etc).

Issue there is the short window of opportunity before the blues would need to replace gibbs/murphy et al.

Imo, real contention is 5-6 years away - whilst retaining some older players is important but those that have value should be 'expendable' as part of a thorough list rebuild -> hence kreuzer should be let go if we think we can get appropriate FA compo, there is less issue with letting mid age players go (yarran, henderson etc).

I just think setting such a long timeframe is a back-door way of excusing failure in the meantime.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

How many KP players do you see on carlton's list that will be afl quality in 4 years time?

So you have to improve your list through drafting and recruiting.

That's not impossible.

 

[Tig22]

was a reference to the potential mini-rebuild that might be required if richmond don't start winning finals and need to start thinking about replacements for key older players IF they wait 2 years for lennon etc to hit peak levels of performance rather than aggressively trading in players for needs now.

In 2 years time, richmond will start thinking of life post houli, deledio, grigg, maric, reidwoldt etc - b/c they will all either be gone or have 1-2 years left. So by the time lennon hits his prime, he is replacing one of your current top liners rather than improving the teams overall depth. Similarly if you brought in an 18yo.

Sacrifice a player or a few draft picks whilst the current older group are at their peaks opens up the window earlier and keeps it open for longer (particularly if well list managed in the medium term)

Reiwoldt and Deledio are difficult to replace, but we're a young side still. We've got a heck of a lot of young mids that can play small defenders (vlaustin) and forward (Lambert, Martin), plus B.Ellis, C.Ellis, Menadue, Castagna, Short, etc. Obviously we rate them highly and it is rare that all your draft picks work out, but they are all expected to be best 22 sooner next year or the year after, as well as development talls like Astbury, Elton, McKenzie to step up when we need to replace Chaplin and Reiwoldt.

 

[Tig22]

actually the hawks did bring in a host of non-18yos in the few seasons prior to 07 -> guerra, dew, croad, jacobs, nixon, ball, scott, taylor, gilham, mclgynn, - just didn't think it was necessary to go too far back. The 08 flag was unexpected but as soon as they dropped off in 2009/stagnated, the hawks started being aggressive with filling needs.

The tigers have stagnated for 3 years now - what have they done?

You compare richmond's age profile with the hawks as if they are at the same point in the cycle. Clearly they are not.

If the hawks window closes in 2 years, most hawks fans will accept it as part of the cycle as they've already had a very very good run and its time to rebuild/top up. If the tigers window closes in 2 years and they face a rebuild/topup period, will richmond fans be satisfied?

First year we were crazy young, second year we nearly missed finals entirely, this year was a bitter disappointment. But we are young enough to expect to be playing finals footy for the next 6 years barring some disaster. We definitely will not be rebuilding in 2 years haha

 

[4thchicken]

That's all fair, the older end of the scale is dominated by elite players.

But we think there will be a few of our old boys either replaced by the time they are 30/31/32 (Maric, Chaplin, etc) or still pulling their weight as elite players, in particular, Deledio, Edwards, Reiwoldt. I would hope that natural progression of our younger players would keep us in contention until the end of those guys careers, especially as that is when Rance, Ellis, Martin, Cotchin, Vickery, etc will all be entering their prime. I feel like Richmond has a very well balanced list age wise. For example, when we beat Collingwood this year we were a younger side than they were, and they're in a mini-rebuild!

All comes down to what richmond list depth is like - As the blues found out post-2012 you won't really know until it all falls apart. Its not just finding replacements for older players though, that part is easy. Finding replacements for top liners whilst strengthening depth and/fringe spots in the team is the difficult proposition.

Also, I'd suggest you not get too carried away with average team ages on any particular day as that only informs part of the equation. Teams can have lots of youngsters that just aren't ready for games.

Excluding list changes
the Pies have 16 players 25 and older.
the tigers have 19 players 25 and older
the hawks have 19 players 25 and older

If you looked at median list age, the tigers/hawks would be on par and the pies are actually younger than the tigers...

 

[Tig22]

All comes down to what richmond list depth is like - As the blues found out post-2012 you won't really know until it all falls apart. Its not just finding replacements for older players though, that part is easy. Finding replacements for top liners whilst strengthening depth and/fringe spots in the team is the difficult proposition.

Also, I'd suggest you not get too carried away with average team ages on any particular day as that only informs part of the equation. Teams can have lots of youngsters that just aren't ready for games.

Excluding list changes
the Pies have 16 players 25 and older.
the tigers have 19 players 25 and older
the hawks have 19 players 25 and older

If you looked at median list age, the tigers/hawks would be on par and the pies are actually younger than the tigers...

All I am saying is that I don't expect a huge drop off while it feels as though we're gathering momentum. I don't think Carlton would have dropped away if Malthouse hadn't ****** up your list. We have had 3 players retire this year that were best 22 when fully fit, Newman, Knights, and Foley. So I feel like our depth is ok based on how we've covered them, but obviously every club always wants better depth. I think Maric is now our oldest player, and he is probably 2 years from retiring.

I think we're well placed currently, if we're going to really get better to establish ourselves as serious premiership contenders we need to attract ready made talent like Yarran and Bennell, a ruckman, and improve our depth, but it isn't a do or die situation at all.

 

[beowulf]

our first is for a treloar/bennell/redden/not yarran trade.

Which is why it may not happen.

 

[Tig22]

Which is why it may not happen.

not this again, we've been over why it won't be needed!

 

[Gosha]

was a reference to the potential mini-rebuild that might be required if richmond don't start winning finals and need to start thinking about replacements for key older players IF they wait 2 years for lennon etc to hit peak levels of performance rather than aggressively trading in players for needs now.

In 2 years time, richmond will start thinking of life post houli, deledio, grigg, maric, reidwoldt etc - b/c they will all either be gone or have 1-2 years left. So by the time lennon hits his prime, he is replacing one of your current top liners rather than improving the teams overall depth. Similarly if you brought in an 18yo.

Sacrifice a player or a few draft picks whilst the current older group are at their peaks opens up the window earlier and keeps it open for longer (particularly if well list managed in the medium term)

Deledio - as I mentioned earlier still has about five good years left in him because of his durability and the fact he will be playing forward more often. Will not need replacing until 2020.
Houli - in two years time will be 29, plays a similar role to Shaun Burgoyne who is 32 and will probably go to 33 - 34. Will not need replacing until 2021.
Grigg - will be phased out in the next season or two, a good role player but losing him won't impact much on our side. Will be depth for the next six years.
Maric - is currently labouring, we will be better off the sooner we find a replacement (in the next year or two).
Riewoldt - is 26, hardly old and ridiculous that you even mentioned him. In two years time he will be 28. He will probably retire around the age 33 or 34 (maybe longer when you consider Nick Riewoldt and Pav are still going). Won't need replacing until 2023.

 

[4thchicken]

Reiwoldt and Deledio are difficult to replace, but we're a young side still. We've got a heck of a lot of young mids that can play small defenders (vlaustin) and forward (Lambert, Martin), plus B.Ellis, C.Ellis, Menadue, Castagna, Short, etc. Obviously we rate them highly and it is rare that all your draft picks work out, but they are all expected to be best 22 sooner next year or the year after, as well as development talls like Astbury, Elton, McKenzie to step up when we need to replace Chaplin and Reiwoldt.

vlaustin/martin are quality. Lambert is a 23 yo rookie that might turn out ok but hasn't hit the scoreboard anywhere near enough to be a forward.

ellis X2 & menadue are more likely to make it than not due to original draft positions.

As for the others, well you've listed 3 X 1st year rookie draftees, a 24 yo that reserve player that looks to be off to brisbane and a 22 yo KPP that would be a very good chance of being delisted within a couple of years (2 games in 4 years, mediocre VFL stats this year) <- whilst the tigers might rate them highly, perhaps you could understand why external judges mightn't share the same optimism re:tigers list depth

 

[beowulf]

On the news tonight Tim Watson came out with Carlton's interest in Plowman and Bugg. SOS would like to get them over the line, even though I think it doubtful. He'd be quite happy to use Yarran to make this deal work out as a direct trade to GWS.
Another option is to introduce a 3rd party for Yarran, the picks or players of which would go to GWS.
I'm not sure these deals would work out, but there is plenty of water to go under the bridge with Yarran yet.

I also heard that Adelaide were interested. Someone there had been talking to Eddie Betts.
Like all of these rumours, I'll take them with as much salt as is required. But the likelihood of Richmond being the only suitor is close to zero. His management would be unprofessional to ignore these offers. There will be more. Some of them are likely to be smoke and mirrors. But not all.

 

[SABlue]

Each to their own, if he only ever becomes a reasonable small forward he isn't worth what we paid for him imo

Turned 21 today so being most players take 60+ games to start being consistent I think way to early to tell. Played injured all this year but still tried to front up every week.
A lot people with better knowledge than us thought we got a steal getting Menzel when we did. Or maybe your just a better judge than most. If that's the case you are doing the wrong job.

 

[4thchicken]

All I am saying is that I don't expect a huge drop off while it feels as though we're gathering momentum. I don't think Carlton would have dropped away if Malthouse hadn't ****** up your list. We have had 3 players retire this year that were best 22 when fully fit, Newman, Knights, and Foley. So I feel like our depth is ok based on how we've covered them, but obviously every club always wants better depth. I think Maric is now our oldest player, and he is probably 2 years from retiring.

I think we're well placed currently, if we're going to really get better to establish ourselves as serious premiership contenders we need to attract ready made talent like Yarran and Bennell, a ruckman, and improve our depth, but it isn't a do or die situation at all.

The blues mistake was getting rid of ratten whilst we were looking to contend -> changing direction/game plan at such a late stage is asking for trouble. Malthouse certainly didn't help and neither did the list management (advertising that players were not wanted, getting very little for those that left -> most of which are solid contributors elsewhere atm).

As for the tigers - agree you've covered the retirements -> but thats all that has happened. The tigers haven't progressed.

Your last sentence suggests that you agree with my point all along -> now is the time for the tigers to spend big on bringing in mature players to open up that window earlier.

Is it do or die? - never that dire but if you suddenly need to replace a couple players earlier than expected, it can set you back a couple of years, and then more players need replacing etc (see blues when we unexpectedly had to replace fev).

 

[SABlue]

I can't even make sense of the rubbish that you're saying

Our list is in very good shape at the moment. Rance, Cotchin, Martin, Conca, Ellis, Vlastuin, Riewoldt, McIntosh, C. Ellis, Lennon, Grimes, Batchelor, Edwards, Vickery, Griffiths, Hunt, Miles and Lambert are all best 22 and are all 26 or under. The only player that will really hurt us when he leaves is Deledio but he would have a minimum five years left in him when you consider his durability and the fact he will be playing as a forward towards the latter stages of his career.

Guys like Maric, Chaplin, Newman etc. will all be replaced by guys in that 22 - 26 year old age bracket and losing them won't hurt us as they've been labouring for some time now.

I think you should be more concerned about your own backyard...

Going: Simpson, Walker, Thomas
Gone: Carrazzo, Judd
Good players 26 and under: Cripps, Gibbs, Kreuzer (potentially gone), Yarran (gone), Tuohy
Average players: Menzel, Docherty, Bell (potentially gone)
Duds: The rest

That leaves you with...
A-graders: None
B-graders: Murphy (getting on), Gibbs, Cripps, Tuohy, Simpson (almost gone), Kreuzer (injury prone, wants out)
C-graders: Menzel (I'm being generous, as soft as they come), Docherty, Walker (being generous, done nothing in a long time)
D-graders and lower: The rest

After that assessment I'm actually quite happy being a Richmond supporter right now

Love to see your evaluation of the Tigers squad. Just like you did for us. Now your squad is strong and is not far away. Just need a tad more quality and a set of balls when it comes to finals.

 

[Tig22]

vlaustin/martin are quality. Lambert is a 23 yo rookie that might turn out ok but hasn't hit the scoreboard anywhere near enough to be a forward.

ellis X2 & menadue are more likely to make it than not due to original draft positions.

As for the others, well you've listed 3 X 1st year rookie draftees, a 24 yo that reserve player that looks to be off to brisbane and a 22 yo KPP that would be a very good chance of being delisted within a couple of years (2 games in 4 years, mediocre VFL stats this year) <- whilst the tigers might rate them highly, perhaps you could understand why external judges mightn't share the same optimism re:tigers list depth

5 games into this season external judges also thought we should rebuild our list, I trust the people running the club to make decisions for the club. Astbury would go only for opportunity, and Elton must have got a contract extension because the club believes he can make the grade.