Speculation Clayton Oliver [UFA 2030]

[A11dAtP0w3R]

No it's not. Clayton hasn't been worth 2 r1s since 2021.

We could have conned someone to take him for two firsts in 2022 but youre right, hes dropped off as a player each year since 2021. Look at his body shape in 2021 and compare it to the past 3 years, even as an AA in 2022 he was larger than 2021. Taken the absolute piss since signing the extension and just coasted off talent instead of putting in the work.

 

[The_Todd07]

You're comparing Grundy to one of the greatest mids in the game. please. Grundy is a spud and I saw that first hand when he was at the dees.

Why do Melbourne want to get rid of one of the best mids in the game? Seems like that's not someone you would be shopping around to whoever will take him

 

[CatToTheFuture]

2024 Oliver is likely the absolute worst case. More than likely he gets fit again and plays better. You have to take some of the risk.
900k considering risk vs reward. Worst case hes a 700k player, best case hes back to that 1.3mil player

I don't think it's the worst case. This contract runs until he's contracted until he's like 34 and these contested types can hit the wall very quickly. I think we'll get some good years early but the later years of it could get ugly

 

[MisterMarcus]

I love how Old Mate can’t even keep his own bullshizen straight.

Half the posts are “I hope he goes to Geelong cause he’s a spent hack who can’t even play out a quarter”

And half of them are “He’s a champion 4 time AA so pay up big time Cats!!”

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I don't think it's the worst case. This contract runs until he's contracted until he's like 34 and these contested types can hit the wall very quickly. I think we'll get some good years early but the later years of it could get ugly

Agree, im sure he'd be motivated early to prove something for a new club but who knows how long that lasts given hes made his money either way.

 

[danster168]

Why do Melbourne want to get rid of one of the best mids in the game? Seems like that's not someone you would be shopping around to whoever will take him

because, he's been a head case. You don't lose your talent though.

 

[Falchoon]

2024 Oliver is likely the absolute worst case. More than likely he gets fit again and plays better. You have to take some of the risk.
900k considering risk vs reward. Worst case hes a 700k player, best case hes back to that 1.3mil player

worst case is Jack Steven 2.0

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We could have conned someone to take him for two firsts in 2022 but youre right, hes dropped off as a player each year since 2021. Look at his body shape in 2021 and compare it to the past 3 years, even as an AA in 2022 he was larger than 2021. Taken the absolute piss since signing the extension and just coasted off talent instead of putting in the work.

I agree there. Look as a player he's frankly worth 3 firsts (if that is a thing) but with his off field issues-not so much the drugs or gambling lots of players do it and it gets covered up. But with the lack of professionalism to preparing his body and training plus the team standard stuff-no team anywhere would trade 2 r1s for him now with those risks, before you even talk about the contract split. That's just my opinion anyway.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

He was All-Australian in 2022 as well as being voted the game's best player by the AFL Coaches. Do your research before you post. Next

And he's been terribly unprofessional since then which lowers his value significantly.

 

[Toump Ass]

Oliver is not being shopped around by Melbourne because they can get a significant haul in return

Are you sure about that? We're run by ****ing donuts, wouldn't surprise me at all if Pert was calling around clubs because he was expecting a Jeremy Cameron type haul.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You're comparing Grundy to one of the greatest mids in the game. please. Grundy is a spud and I saw that first hand when he was at the dees.

Grundy looks after his body though and is very likely to be playing at the end of his contract-something you absolutely can't say about Clayton and is factored into the risk and the price.

 

[The_Todd07]

because, he's been a head case. You don't lose your talent though.

You don't see how that lowers his value significantly?

 

[Big_Birdy]

We have the draft capital because they won't get a top 20 pick for Clayton with that contract. The contract is the albatross if you could rip it up and start again then yes they would get at least one r1 for him but I doubt the afl will allow that which means he will cost a r2 at absolute best (melb might get less than that).

Your second paragraph is more relevant as Geelong fringe players might look elsewhere because of gametime not because we need currency (we dont).

Fair enough.

But this isn’t a pure salary dump. If they are letting him go for a r2 then it’s red flags everywhere (I guess they are already there anyway).

 

[danster168]

You don't see how that lowers his value significantly?

yeah, it does. I'm not demanding 2x top 10 picks. You're offering the same for Bailey Smith who has equal, if not more risk considering his history and now coming off an acl.

 

[The 747]

Clay Clay to the Cats Cats! Awesome

 

[stallon]

I don't think it's the worst case. This contract runs until he's contracted until he's like 34 and these contested types can hit the wall very quickly. I think we'll get some good years early but the later years of it could get ugly

33, but yes

 

[stallon]

Your valuation alone is a premium. This is nowhere near a normal trade

Brodie Grundy got traded to Melbourne 2 years into a 7 year big money deal, without any of the red flags for pick 33. That's with Collingwood paying a good chunk of his salary.

That's the precedent we a working with

My valuation isnt a premium, its taking into account that he could very easily go back to early 2023 form with just a good pre-season. You cant expect to take 0 risk here.

 

[stallon]

No it's not. Clayton hasn't been worth 2 r1s since 2021.

He was good in the first half of last year before he got injured

 

[Footy Smarts]

worst case is Jack Steven 2.0

He's got exactly those vibes. Great player who goes off the rails, weight massively blows out, etc.

Initially Saints fans were talking a first rounder for Steven cause he was contracted. In the end he was traded for a junk pick and the Saints paid most of his contract. Geelong delisted him with a year still to run on his contract.

I can't see how any club could justify paying much more than the AFL average wage for Oliver and 6 years seems insane. There aren't many stories of players going off the rails like this in their mid-late 20s and getting back close to their best.

 

[The_Todd07]

My valuation isnt a premium, its taking into account that he could very easily go back to early 2023 form with just a good pre-season. You cant expect to take 0 risk here.

Paying 900k a year AND giving up a 1st round pick is a massive premium for someone whos own team thinks holding onto him is too risky.

Grundy is the example and he was pick 33 for a smaller cap hit and no red flags

 

[The_Todd07]

yeah, it does. I'm not demanding 2x top 10 picks. You're offering the same for Bailey Smith who has equal, if not more risk considering his history and now coming off an acl.

Bailey absolutely has his risks but he doesn't come coupled with one of the biggest contracts in the league. He is also 4? years younger

Olivers contract that runs until he is 34 and Melbourne initiating all this because he is a headcase means his value is very low.

If our price isn't met we can easily walk away and Melbourne is left with a headcase who is also now pissed off

 

[Zen242]

Man some of the opinions here are laughably Ill informed. Running with a media narrative that suits what you want to believe is not a fact.
Anyone here suggesting that Clarry is cooked after one bad season with an injury and no preseason just doesn't watch Melbourne play.
Prior to this year he was the most consistent inside mid in the competition and the only question mark was disposal which he had markedly improved.
Melbourne don't HAVE to trade him. And why if they do they have chosen Geelong is beyond me. But if Geelong were prepared to trade a first rounder for Smith with his disposal that probably makes Oliver worth more - behaviour issues or not.

 

[danster168]

Regardless, if I'm Melbourne, we'd want something in this years draft, not next years. I can't see this getting done.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

33, but yes

Yeah I didn't check the specifics

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Man some of the opinions here are laughably Ill informed. Running with a media narrative that suits what you want to believe is not a fact.
Anyone here suggesting that Clarry is cooked after one bad season with an injury and no preseason just doesn't watch Melbourne play.
Prior to this year he was the most consistent inside mid in the competition and the only question mark was disposal which he had markedly improved.
Melbourne don't HAVE to trade him. And why if they do they have chosen Geelong is beyond me. But if Geelong were prepared to trade a first rounder for Smith with his disposal that probably makes Oliver worth more - behaviour issues or not.

Oh man, gonna be a rough couple of weeks for you.