Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[Prochard123]

Just reading about Collingwood potentially having interest in Ivan Maric.

Love it!

Not quite Dal Santo level news, but another terrific sign.

Having Grundy who is top five in the game already by position but still young. Then Cox who also is young and developing.

If Witts is traded. Maric for veteran leadership and depth is perfect to have in the depth stocks as that Ben Hudson type who can step into the AFL side as required but offer plenty for leadership.

Sounds like another update may be due some time soon on page one with all these potentially available players and newly rumoured potential list additions.

Hey KM,
Given the strong constast between our 2016 forward line and the pending 2017 forward line. Do you think due to our plethora of mid/small forwards, perhaps Fasolo/Elliot could play midfield/wing/half forward? Both are strong at contests and have decent pace to carry the ball. Perhaps we can have Crocker/Mayne as permanant small/medium forwards? Actually swap Fasolo with Mayne.

 

[well left]

KM - I too like the Maric signing but have my doubts on Cox long-term as a 1st ruck type.

If we got Maric I think we should also look at another developing ruck as 12-24 months down the track Maric is really done.

Would Lachie Howe from our VFL team be a consideration?

Basically it would then be Witts and Gault gone for Maric and Howe.

 

[Schraderbrau]

KM - I too like the Maric signing but have my doubts on Cox long-term as a 1st ruck type.

If we got Maric I think we should also look at another developing ruck as 12-24 months down the track Maric is really done.

Would Lachie Howe from our VFL team be a consideration?

Basically it would then be Witts and Gault gone for Maric and Howe.

With respect to Howe, Cox has 11cm on him, at least 10kg and Howe is probably slower than him. We should be super optimistic about what Cox could do next season given his rate of improvement. As an athlete he's off the charts and is potentially the best ruck forward in the AFL. There just needs to be more patience.

Maric makes a lot of sense precisely because he doesn't get in the way of Cox's development, but can still do a decent job in the seniors if required.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Hey KM,
Given the strong constast between our 2016 forward line and the pending 2017 forward line. Do you think due to our plethora of mid/small forwards, perhaps Fasolo/Elliot could play midfield/wing/half forward? Both are strong at contests and have decent pace to carry the ball. Perhaps we can have Crocker/Mayne as permanant small/medium forwards? Actually swap Fasolo with Mayne.

Mayne seems superfluous to our list requirements, we have too many medium forwards as it is. Even his best is probably only at the same level as Fasolo and Elliot and it's questionable whether he can get back there again. Further, loading up on medium leading forwards when the teams footskills are below average is a recipe for disaster.

 

[well left]

With respect to Howe, Cox has 11cm on him, at least 10kg and Howe is probably slower than him. We should be super optimistic about what Cox could do next season given his rate of improvement. As an athlete he's off the charts and is potentially the best ruck forward in the AFL. There just needs to be more patience.

Maric makes a lot of sense precisely because he doesn't get in the way of Cox's development, but can still do a decent job in the seniors if required.

You could be right about Cox. I see him more as a forward and part-time ruck at the moment but that could just be due to Grundy. If the club backs him I will go with it and we should know more after another pre-season and another 15-20 games into him.

I just don't want to get caught short and 2 rucks and Maric is short for me. Another one to develop, be it Howe or someone else, should be onour agenda.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Just reading about Collingwood potentially having interest in Ivan Maric.

Love it!

Not quite Dal Santo level news, but another terrific sign.

Having Grundy who is top five in the game already by position but still young. Then Cox who also is young and developing.

If Witts is traded. Maric for veteran leadership and depth is perfect to have in the depth stocks as that Ben Hudson type who can step into the AFL side as required but offer plenty for leadership.

Sounds like another update may be due some time soon on page one with all these potentially available players and newly rumoured potential list additions.

Maric is a safety net with the imminent departure of Witts. It or something similar needs to be done. I would have someone like Minson over Maric in terms of being fit & able and in general playing ability. However, Maric by all reports is a super clubman, leader and all round good guy.....Minson not so much. So I am in favour of Maric provided his body has some life left in it.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
Given the strong constast between our 2016 forward line and the pending 2017 forward line. Do you think due to our plethora of mid/small forwards, perhaps Fasolo/Elliot could play midfield/wing/half forward? Both are strong at contests and have decent pace to carry the ball. Perhaps we can have Crocker/Mayne as permanant small/medium forwards? Actually swap Fasolo with Mayne.

I don't see either of Fasolo or Elliott as answers on either wing. Fasolo can rotate between forward pocket and half forward mostly. He could push up onto a wing for brief periods, but ultimately his endurance isn't on the level required to be all that successful on a wing. Elliott missing this season also I expect would be more likely to remain a permanent forward. As a junior he showed he could push onto the ball, so that may in time be something, just pinch-hitting that he could in the future do, but as a club leading goalkicking, his best offering is definitely up forward.

While not a tall, if Mayne is added my assumption is that he would become the clubs centre half forward. So he'd be essentially a Travis Cloke replacement who would be paired with Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott, Alex Fasolo and whoever is rotating forward to play alongside that group.

Elliott's health is still a questionmark until he's back, so Crocker with Elliott and Fasolo both injury prone enough would still in all likelihood get his senior games next season anyway.

KM - I too like the Maric signing but have my doubts on Cox long-term as a 1st ruck type.

If we got Maric I think we should also look at another developing ruck as 12-24 months down the track Maric is really done.

Would Lachie Howe from our VFL team be a consideration?

Basically it would then be Witts and Gault gone for Maric and Howe.

With Grundy the clubs number one ruck Cox will be developed more into a relieving ruckman who plays predominantly forward.

Cox having seen him dominate with his tap work I'd have no problem with using as a lead ruck at AFL level from next season if his endurance was improved and he continues working on his ruck craft. But to accommodate both Grundy and Cox in the same team, Cox probably is that relieving ruck with Grundy the better ruckman and Cox the better forward at the moment.

There are always ruckmen who can be had as rookies. So that would always be an option down the track. With all the international ruckmen who can be added as category B rookies, that's a pretty easily solution if no one appealing presents through the draft.

Lachie Howe is a fine VFL ruckman but there are better ruckmen in the state leagues. Darcy Cameron probably is the better of the still young enough, but able to play now if required rucks if you're after a name.

Such a large group of ruckmen probably isn't necessary.

Grundy/Cox/Maric as our 1st rucks.
Cox/Moore is fine for relief ruck stocks.

Only three who can play lead ruckman (for mine Cox could if required) and two who can play relief ruck is also enough - with each of suitable quality for AFL play.

As with all tall posts, I don't view it as much being about quantity as much as quality. With rucks and key position players they're less versatile. It's not like say if next season Marley Williams is out of form. He could pretty easily be swung into the midfield or forward if we want to try something new with.

Whereas if we have a bunch of genuine lead ruckmen or too many relieving ruckmen who can only play forward and ruck. You'll just find you'll have a VFL side stacked with depth talls and you're missing out on the potential to use those other list positions on potential best 22 players who could be useful for other purposes. Whether it's a young player who can develop into a best 22 player or an unwanted veteran who can improve the clubs best 22 and/or provide leadership and aid in young player development.

Mayne seems superfluous to our list requirements, we have too many medium forwards as it is. Even his best is probably only at the same level as Fasolo and Elliot and it's questionable whether he can get back there again. Further, loading up on medium leading forwards when the teams footskills are below average is a recipe for disaster.

What would be your feelings if we had a front half of:
F: Elliott Moore Fasolo
HF: -- Mayne --

We could pretty easily go out and grab Brent Harvey and Broomhead if healthy could fit onto that other flank or otherwise it would be some rotational midfielder or versatile type eg. Varcoe to compliment that group. With Cox potentially coming off the bench as a relief ruck depending on whether more height is wanted.

With Cloke going, that's probably about as strong a front half as could possibly be constructed in our position.

Maric is a safety net with the imminent departure of Witts. It or something similar needs to be done. I would have someone like Minson over Maric in terms of being fit & able and in general playing ability. However, Maric by all reports is a super clubman, leader and all round good guy.....Minson not so much. So I am in favour of Maric provided his body has some life left in it.

I'm ok with either, but as you identified. For that veteran/depth post it would be about being there for leadership and as a potential coach as much if not more than being depth. If Maric is free and is the best guy to offer that, to help Grundy and Cox in their development. That's the guy I want if Witts leaves.

Watching the past month from Witts. Increasingly the thought of seeing him go becomes difficult. He's dominating in the VFL and his tap work has been outstanding. He is ready to breakout and in all likelihood from what I'm watching will have a terrific 2017 season wherever he lands. We really need to get someone good for him, because I'm firmly anticipating as with whatever the Cloke trade ends up being, that we'll be on the losing end of it.

 

[well left]

With Grundy the clubs number one ruck Cox will be developed more into a relieving ruckman who plays predominantly forward.

Cox having seen him dominate with his tap work I'd have no problem with using as a lead ruck at AFL level from next season if his endurance was improved and he continues working on his ruck craft. But to accommodate both Grundy and Cox in the same team, Cox probably is that relieving ruck with Grundy the better ruckman and Cox the better forward at the moment.

There are always ruckmen who can be had as rookies. So that would always be an option down the track. With all the international ruckmen who can be added as category B rookies, that's a pretty easily solution if no one appealing presents through the draft.

Lachie Howe is a fine VFL ruckman but there are better ruckmen in the state leagues. Darcy Cameron probably is the better of the still young enough, but able to play now if required rucks if you're after a name.

Such a large group of ruckmen probably isn't necessary.

Grundy/Cox/Maric as our 1st rucks.
Cox/Moore is fine for relief ruck stocks.

Only three who can play lead ruckman (for mine Cox could if required) and two who can play relief ruck is also enough - with each of suitable quality for AFL play.

As with all tall posts, I don't view it as much being about quantity as much as quality. With rucks and key position players they're less versatile. It's not like say if next season Marley Williams is out of form. He could pretty easily be swung into the midfield or forward if we want to try something new with.

Whereas if we have a bunch of genuine lead ruckmen or too many relieving ruckmen who can only play forward and ruck. You'll just find you'll have a VFL side stacked with depth talls and you're missing out on the potential to use those other list positions on potential best 22 players who could be useful for other purposes. Whether it's a young player who can develop into a best 22 player or an unwanted veteran who can improve the clubs best 22 and/or provide leadership and aid in young player development.

Yeah I guess the unknown for me is Cox. I saw bits that made me think he can play forward and bits that he can play ruck and that just needs to develop. He needs to work on his marking if he is to be the relieving ruck playing forward and I think a pre-season in the gym and more work on his marking should see that improve.

Darcy Cameron was the name I was trying to think of and couldn't.

I still have my doubts on Cox hence I see the need to add another but more of a rookie 20-23 year old that could be had for cheap.

 

[4#Didak#4]

KM thoughts on Butcher? Will be a delisted FA. I think if we lose Cloke and need some depth for the forward line Butcher fits the bill. I don't think he will be the star he was forecast to be early days, but he can still go OK. Dominant in the air, Cloke like with his kicking but can pay a role - actually reminds me of Stewie Loewe for some reason.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Watching the past month from Witts. Increasingly the thought of seeing him go becomes difficult. He's dominating in the VFL and his tap work has been outstanding. He is ready to breakout and in all likelihood from what I'm watching will have a terrific 2017 season wherever he lands. We really need to get someone good for him, because I'm firmly anticipating as with whatever the Cloke trade ends up being, that we'll be on the losing end of it.

Agree with Witts. He is going to be an excellent AFL quality ruckman somewhere eventually, simply needs the opportunity & game time. I think we will lose on his leaving but in a way it can't be helped. The upside is that there will genuinely be a number of clubs chasing him so hopefully this works as some sort of leverage to land a better deal.

 

[coolcarlito]

Hey KM, just a quick question, I am curious about what is the draft range for Jonty Scharenberg ATM? I can remember in one of your analysis that he is a ball-winning inside mid and I think it is still a position we need. Do you reckon we can have him if slip to late second round or even later stage of the draft?

 

[TradeDraft]

Just wondering of the High Possibility of Mayne Signing with Collingwood?

 

[Knightmare]

KM thoughts on Butcher? Will be a delisted FA. I think if we lose Cloke and need some depth for the forward line Butcher fits the bill. I don't think he will be the star he was forecast to be early days, but he can still go OK. Dominant in the air, Cloke like with his kicking but can pay a role - actually reminds me of Stewie Loewe for some reason.

Never been good enough.

Good junior, but has never developed. Not even a top five goalkicker in the SANFL. He is of an age (25) where we know who he is and put plainly who he is, is not good enough.

As a junior marking was what he did best. But only one contested mark per game from his 31 AFL games isn't anything to write home about. It's half of what Cloke has averaged over his career for some perspective.

If we're after a mature age key forward, Brett Eddy as a rookie would service as a better and cheaper option with almost twice the scoreboard impact in the SANFL.

Agree with Witts. He is going to be an excellent AFL quality ruckman somewhere eventually, simply needs the opportunity & game time. I think we will lose on his leaving but in a way it can't be helped. The upside is that there will genuinely be a number of clubs chasing him so hopefully this works as some sort of leverage to land a better deal.

With Witts I'm partly conflicted in that I half want to see him come back for another year to play alongside Grundy. It's going to be hard with both genuine rucks first. Both have shown some limited glimpses up forward, and it's take a chance. But if the offers are unappealing I would ideally like to see Witts retained.

Fingers crossed Witts is healthy for and dominant during the remaining finals.

Time to get identifying opposition talent.

Yeah I guess the unknown for me is Cox. I saw bits that made me think he can play forward and bits that he can play ruck and that just needs to develop. He needs to work on his marking if he is to be the relieving ruck playing forward and I think a pre-season in the gym and more work on his marking should see that improve.

Darcy Cameron was the name I was trying to think of and couldn't.

I still have my doubts on Cox hence I see the need to add another but more of a rookie 20-23 year old that could be had for cheap.

With Cox I like a lot of what he does up forward. I agree with you that his hands to need to improve. In saying that I already view Cox as a capable AFL key forward because he draws some many frees just by reaching for the ball and having his arms chopped. His bodywork also is very good, often outbodying key defenders in the contest, bumping them at the right times.

Hey KM, just a quick question, I am curious about what is the draft range for Jonty Scharenberg ATM? I can remember in one of your analysis that he is a ball-winning inside mid and I think it is still a position we need. Do you reckon we can have him if slip to late second round or even later stage of the draft?

Scharenberg late 1st round or early second round is expected to feature.

Being a midfielders draft it's possible he is there in the second round.

Good accumulator but the strength to his game is his ball use - very clean user by hand and foot with good vision, decision making and execution.

We've got a stacked midfield, so it's hard to see us picking him, particularly as a below average pace mid. But if there it's not out of the question if we feel he is the best player there.

Just wondering of the High Possibility of Mayne Signing with Collingwood?

The expectation is that Mayne will meet with 3-4 Victorian clubs and make his decision but the talk is that Collingwood are favourite to get his signature.

Mayne seems like Cloke's replacement at CHF, as stylistically something more like a Macaffer as a medium forward who brings good pressure by position - though a better version and something more like what Macaffer may have become if not for all the injuries. While his goal per game numbers are poor, if we can live with that, his game is otherwise solid and fits the gameplan and gamestyle we're looking to play.

There is some talk of a potential four year deal for Mayne which in my view is ridiculous. He may only be productive and useful at AFL level for another two years and as an undersized key forward, he isn't someone to go offering a big contract to. But if available on a small-medium contract, he is a suitable list addition and someone who can fit into the clubs best 22.

 

[Schraderbrau]

What would be your feelings if we had a front half of:
F: Elliott Moore Fasolo
HF: -- Mayne --

After thinking about it a bit more I'm more ambivalent about chasing than outright negative. From a defensive perspective he's a great fit because he runs hard and lays a lot of perceived pressure. How he helps us in attack is where I'm concerned and that is mainly a function of my apprehension about our midfield's ability to transition quickly and accurately to hit players on a lead. Mayne will be pretty useless if we move the ball as we have at times this season. Positive is that he's a strong runner and could do a job like Lynch at Adelaide where he leads hard up the ground which will create more space/1v1 opportunities behind for our best contested forwards - Cox and Moore.

Ultimately I think he at least helps out depth (especially with Elliott's limbo situation) but likely makes us better. He is definitely a better option than Cloke who unfortunately, and in spite of his contested ability, far too wasteful playing both deep forward and up the ground to be anything but a liability imo.

It is frustrating not to see us linked with players who fill deficiencies though which is why I'm much more excited by the suggestion that we're going hard for Wells. If he stays fit he fixes he gives us pace and quality disposal on the outside which we're desperately in need of.

As I said above I think whether Mayne works will depend more on our midfield than his own form but it's hard to criticise us for taking what is a calculated gamble that we can improve this aspect of our team. On the positive side our forward group next season will look something like Moore, Cox, White, Fasolo, Elliott, Mayne - with the exception of White all above average kicks at goal and even White has improved in that respect this season.

What recruiting Mayne doesn't do is address our desperate need for a genuine crumbing forward and players that run behind the press when the ball gets over the back and get a cheap goal. Elliott has been quite good at sneaking out the back and White can do it as well funnily enough but the rest are average to poor. I don't know how Mayne goes in that respect. The weakness with Cox and Moore as key forwards is that they're lead out and mark only - Cox is a non-factor when the ball hits the deck and running towards goal and Moore isn't great either. Hawthorn in the past have been brilliant at it and Adelaide with Jenkins, Walker and Lynch gives their attack an extra dimension because they can start up the ground and break into the space over the back. Other than White, non of our talls can do this and it's a problem imo.

 

[cleomenes]

Fasolo certainly gets out the back at times. The spectacular nature of his lead up marking disguises this a bit. He is a pretty complete medium forward. Elliott too is good at this. His marking has him in the air when he should be crumbing on occasion, but Betts does the same. Experince and fitness will probably see him choosing better. If all of our forwards stay fit for most of next year, the team will be a very different proposition to this. Cloke would look a lot better with the right personell around him. I still hope that he doesn't get the deal he wants and ends up staying.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Km,
Do you see the role of Pendlebury changing next season? Despite our early season struggles i still feel that we're better off having Pendlebury play more of an outside role. From my perspective, his inside game has deterioated to the extent/perhaps injury affected that he no longer is elite in that area and we sometimes look quite weak with him at the centre bounce.

Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

After thinking about it a bit more I'm more ambivalent about chasing than outright negative. From a defensive perspective he's a great fit because he runs hard and lays a lot of perceived pressure. How he helps us in attack is where I'm concerned and that is mainly a function of my apprehension about our midfield's ability to transition quickly and accurately to hit players on a lead. Mayne will be pretty useless if we move the ball as we have at times this season. Positive is that he's a strong runner and could do a job like Lynch at Adelaide where he leads hard up the ground which will create more space/1v1 opportunities behind for our best contested forwards - Cox and Moore.

Ultimately I think he at least helps out depth (especially with Elliott's limbo situation) but likely makes us better. He is definitely a better option than Cloke who unfortunately, and in spite of his contested ability, far too wasteful playing both deep forward and up the ground to be anything but a liability imo.

It is frustrating not to see us linked with players who fill deficiencies though which is why I'm much more excited by the suggestion that we're going hard for Wells. If he stays fit he fixes he gives us pace and quality disposal on the outside which we're desperately in need of.

As I said above I think whether Mayne works will depend more on our midfield than his own form but it's hard to criticise us for taking what is a calculated gamble that we can improve this aspect of our team. On the positive side our forward group next season will look something like Moore, Cox, White, Fasolo, Elliott, Mayne - with the exception of White all above average kicks at goal and even White has improved in that respect this season.

What recruiting Mayne doesn't do is address our desperate need for a genuine crumbing forward and players that run behind the press when the ball gets over the back and get a cheap goal. Elliott has been quite good at sneaking out the back and White can do it as well funnily enough but the rest are average to poor. I don't know how Mayne goes in that respect. The weakness with Cox and Moore as key forwards is that they're lead out and mark only - Cox is a non-factor when the ball hits the deck and running towards goal and Moore isn't great either. Hawthorn in the past have been brilliant at it and Adelaide with Jenkins, Walker and Lynch gives their attack an extra dimension because they can start up the ground and break into the space over the back. Other than White, non of our talls can do this and it's a problem imo.

Daniel Wells would be a terrific get.

Mayne I agree with your revised view of.

Agree a crumbing forward (of quality) would be a good addition. It's all about finding the right guy.

Dan Allsop as a rookie I view as very developable. Not perfect yet - needs to get stronger, improve his finishing etc. But is such a natural crumber and a freak of a ground level player, and a good pressure player who will give the multiple efforts.
Optimally we could find someone through trade/free agency. Maybe Brent Harvey while better playing higher could at least improve us at ground level up front.

Fasolo certainly gets out the back at times. The spectacular nature of his lead up marking disguises this a bit. He is a pretty complete medium forward. Elliott too is good at this. His marking has him in the air when he should be crumbing on occasion, but Betts does the same. Experince and fitness will probably see him choosing better. If all of our forwards stay fit for most of next year, the team will be a very different proposition to this. Cloke would look a lot better with the right personell around him. I still hope that he doesn't get the deal he wants and ends up staying.

My preference still is for Cloke to remain. I believe he is and would again next year be a genuine best 22 player.

In saying that I see his best well past. And for a reason I haven't discussed before and others may only have fleetingly mentioned.

Cloke still has the size and running ability. What he has lost and I don't believe will come back is his contested marking. He used to take the air out of the ball going for grabs. He just doesn't have that anymore, and I believe it's down to his hand and finger problems that have seen this regression happen above all.

Cloke can still be a 30+ goal, 110+ mark, 30+ contested mark per 20 game key forward which still is best 22 quality on most teams, including this team that lacks a second quality key forward. And I expect he maintains this standard for years to come which is plenty fine.

It's just those 50-70 goal, 135-195 mark, 55-95 contested mark seasons are behind him and no longer within Cloke's reach as a result of those hand and finger issues.

Hey Km,
Do you see the role of Pendlebury changing next season? Despite our early season struggles i still feel that we're better off having Pendlebury play more of an outside role. From my perspective, his inside game has deterioated to the extent/perhaps injury affected that he no longer is elite in that area and we sometimes look quite weak with him at the centre bounce.

Thanks

Pendlebury has carried injury this year and been less dominant than he has in past seasons, seemingly regressing ever so slightly with each season, but I do not see a need to transition Pendlebury to the outside. I'd have no problem with Pendlebury receiving some minutes on the wing to make way for an expanded midfield rotation, but ultimately he remains a best three or four inside midfielder in the game, so given this I'd use Pendlebury on the ball as much as possible.

If the fitness/health people can be trusted and are truly experts, then you'd hope they could work out an inside/outside split that will help prolong/maximise the length of Pendlebury's career.

 

[Prochard123]

Daniel Wells would be a terrific get.

Mayne I agree with your revised view of.

Agree a crumbing forward (of quality) would be a good addition. It's all about finding the right guy.

Dan Allsop as a rookie I view as very developable. Not perfect yet - needs to get stronger, improve his finishing etc. But is such a natural crumber and a freak of a ground level player, and a good pressure player who will give the multiple efforts.
Optimally we could find someone through trade/free agency. Maybe Brent Harvey while better playing higher could at least improve us at ground level up front.



My preference still is for Cloke to remain. I believe he is and would again next year be a genuine best 22 player.

In saying that I see his best well past. And for a reason I haven't discussed before and others may only have fleetingly mentioned.

Cloke still has the size and running ability. What he has lost and I don't believe will come back is his contested marking. He used to take the air out of the ball going for grabs. He just doesn't have that anymore, and I believe it's down to his hand and finger problems that have seen this regression happen above all.

Cloke can still be a 30+ goal, 110+ mark, 30+ contested mark per 20 game key forward which still is best 22 quality on most teams, including this team that lacks a second quality key forward. And I expect he maintains this standard for years to come which is plenty fine.

It's just those 50-70 goal, 135-195 mark, 55-95 contested mark seasons are behind him and no longer within Cloke's reach as a result of those hand and finger issues.



Pendlebury has carried injury this year and been less dominant than he has in past seasons, seemingly regressing ever so slightly with each season, but I do not see a need to transition Pendlebury to the outside. I'd have no problem with Pendlebury receiving some minutes on the wing to make way for an expanded midfield rotation, but ultimately he remains a best three or four inside midfielder in the game, so given this I'd use Pendlebury on the ball as much as possible.

If the fitness/health people can be trusted and are truly experts, then you'd hope they could work out an inside/outside split that will help prolong/maximise the length of Pendlebury's career.

Cheers for the reply. Also, where do you see Crisp, Adams and De Goey play next season? Obviously they'd all play some midfield minutes. However, would Crisp play more on the outside, Adams perhaps off halfback and De Goey as a half forward?

 

[TW Sherrin]

Daniel Wells would be a terrific get.

Mayne I agree with your revised view of.

Agree a crumbing forward (of quality) would be a good addition. It's all about finding the right guy.

Dan Allsop as a rookie I view as very developable. Not perfect yet - needs to get stronger, improve his finishing etc. But is such a natural crumber and a freak of a ground level player, and a good pressure player who will give the multiple efforts.
Optimally we could find someone through trade/free agency. Maybe Brent Harvey while better playing higher could at least improve us at ground level up front.



My preference still is for Cloke to remain. I believe he is and would again next year be a genuine best 22 player.

In saying that I see his best well past. And for a reason I haven't discussed before and others may only have fleetingly mentioned.

Cloke still has the size and running ability. What he has lost and I don't believe will come back is his contested marking. He used to take the air out of the ball going for grabs. He just doesn't have that anymore, and I believe it's down to his hand and finger problems that have seen this regression happen above all.

Cloke can still be a 30+ goal, 110+ mark, 30+ contested mark per 20 game key forward which still is best 22 quality on most teams, including this team that lacks a second quality key forward. And I expect he maintains this standard for years to come which is plenty fine.

It's just those 50-70 goal, 135-195 mark, 55-95 contested mark seasons are behind him and no longer within Cloke's reach as a result of those hand and finger issues.



Pendlebury has carried injury this year and been less dominant than he has in past seasons, seemingly regressing ever so slightly with each season, but I do not see a need to transition Pendlebury to the outside. I'd have no problem with Pendlebury receiving some minutes on the wing to make way for an expanded midfield rotation, but ultimately he remains a best three or four inside midfielder in the game, so given this I'd use Pendlebury on the ball as much as possible.

If the fitness/health people can be trusted and are truly experts, then you'd hope they could work out an inside/outside split that will help prolong/maximise the length of Pendlebury's career.

I thought pendlebury played a significant role against the dogs across half forward. Rarely beaten 1/1.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers for the reply. Also, where do you see Crisp, Adams and De Goey play next season? Obviously they'd all play some midfield minutes. However, would Crisp play more on the outside, Adams perhaps off halfback and De Goey as a half forward?

Each are best playing on the ball.

Adams and De Goey I feel you have right. Adams probably spends periods down back and De Goey forward in order to keep the numbers of players through the midfield up.

Crisp we could consider any number of things with because he has good height, speed and the contested ball game. Wing he can play for some minutes, half forward. Plausibly if required half back, though with a healthy backline hopefully that won't be necessary from Crisp.

I thought pendlebury played a significant role against the dogs across half forward. Rarely beaten 1/1.

Pendlebury looks much better forward than he does across half back. It's something he can certainly do, with his delivery into the front half always welcome. Along with playing on a wing, it's something Pendlebury can do for some minutes as required.

 

[Pedro]

Watching the past month from Witts. Increasingly the thought of seeing him go becomes difficult. He's dominating in the VFL and his tap work has been outstanding. He is ready to breakout and in all likelihood from what I'm watching will have a terrific 2017 season wherever he lands. We really need to get someone good for him, because I'm firmly anticipating as with whatever the Cloke trade ends up being, that we'll be on the losing end of it.

The other way you could look at that is that opposition clubs have also seen Witts' last month or so and recognise his ability and potential. Hopefully if decent offers come his way, so too does decent compensation. I've always been bullish about Witts, but recognised that he needed time to develop greater strength. I just hope he doesn't go right in time to really come good.

 

[Knightmare]

Some good free agents this year.

Ricky Henderson, Scott Thompson, Chris Mayne, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, Brent Harvey, Daniel Wells, Nick Dal Santo, Sean Dempster and Matthew Boyd.

Going through the names we can simply stick to free agency as our recruiting method this offseason and simply move Cloke, Witts etc for picks to ensure there is enough salary cap room for the mix of free agents we're after.

Henderson for me is a perfect fit off a back flank. Absolute weapon with his long, precise kicking and a real want to take on the game and play on and move it right away. Production is there in the SANFL and at AFL level when he has received the opportunities. Perfect list fit and what our back half is missing and for me is a best 22 player.

Thompson would be an instant fit into any best 22 in the competition. Still a terrific midfielder. 509 disposals, 225 contested possessions, 149 tackles, 120 clearances and 79 inside 50s from 21 games is exceptional. Still durable, not dipping below 19 games since 2004. Absolute professional who puts the time and work into his body. He could go around another 2-3 years if he wants to. While we have a good midfield group, Thompson would be starting onballer with only Pendlebury and Treloar better.

Chris Mayne at centre half forward is a completely contrasting player to Travis Cloke, but looks like a probable replacement and a best 18 on list standard player. Much smaller, not the same contested mark and not offering that same scoreboard impact. But still a capable player by position and someone who will bring the pressure and tackling inside 50m to a high level.

Jimmy Bartel still has game and 450 disposals, 109 marks, 80 tackles from 21 games. Only the one year of less than 20 games in the last 11 seasons so the durability is there. Still has his smarts and can play anywhere making him still at his age useful at AFL level. In important moments he is so good you'd throw him onto the ball and for the rest of games can play either forward, back or rotate as required through the midfield. Best 15 on list standard player.

Corey Enright still remains on that edge to being All-Australian standard. Best five on list quality player. Still durable not dropping below 21 games in a season since 2005. 516 disposals and 128 marks from 22 games so far this season. Still reads the flight down back and uses it as well as any in the back half. Still good in the 1v1s and still quick enough. Has plenty left.

Tom Lonergan remains one of the better key defenders in the game and would be played ahead of Brown. As good of a stopper and more able intercepter and rebounder. Best 10 on list standard player.

Brent Harvey still is a best five on list standard player. Played all 23 games for North Melbourne and had 496 disposals, 36 goals and 88 inside 50s. He still has it. Best kick/decision maker in the game under pressure. Still has his speed. We lack that skill and ground level ability forward of centre. We lack the experience, leadership and someone who can teach our fitness guys who to keep players productive and healthy beyond 30. A need and still durable with no season with less than 15 games since 1996.

Daniel Wells would be a top 10 on list standard player. Durability is the questionmark, but terrific season and impact with his speed and skills make him another ideal list fit.

Nick Dal Santo would be a best 15 on list standard player and is for skills through the midfield an upgrade. Still managed a strong 545 disposals from his 22 games and continues to set up goals with his precision kicking inside 50m, while using the ball cleanly around the ground. Durability also impressive with only the one season of less than 22 games since 2003.

Sean Dempster remains a useful backman who can play a role. Still an excellent stopper with versatility and the ability to intercept when given the freedom to. Best 18 on list standard player.

Matthew Boyd has been terrific in recent seasons since switching back. Ridiculous that he has yet to be signed for next season by the Dogs. Best five on list standard player still as a high level accumulator who uses it so well out of defence.

For some impact as to how useful these players are. Let's assume Cloke and Witts are getting traded. This would be our best 22 if this group joined our existing playing list.

B: Matthew Boyd Tom Lonergan Corey Enright
HB: Ricky Henderson Ben Reid Jeremy Howe
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Pendlebury Daniel Wells
HF: Brent Harvey Chris Mayne Jimmy Bartel
F: Alex Fasolo Darcy Moore Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Scott Thompson Adam Treloar
BENCH: Taylor Adams Travis Varcoe Nick Dal Santo Sean Dempster

Looking at that group offensively it's such an upgrade. Substantially better skills accross the squad. Down back better intercepting and ball winning. Up forward much improved skills and cleaner inside 50m entries and a better mix where while smaller there are more ground level players, better ball winners and more players able to provide more meaningful pressure. Through the midfield better skills and improved ball winning.

While obviously we can't fit all those guys into our salary cap. I'd be going after as many of those guys as possible and make clear to that group broadly that they're all priorities to us and that we're looking to win now and that they'll each feature prominently in those plans.

 

[Prochard123]

Hi KM,
Are you currently a full time journalist/writer? Do you do your annual power rankings/almanac purely for the reason of building up your portfolio?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Are you currently a full time journalist/writer? Do you do your annual power rankings/almanac purely for the reason of building up your portfolio?

The Collingwood Almanac is for fun and not linked to ESPN. I'd posted this prior to starting my writing with ESPN, so I figured I may as well continue updating it for one final season since I had already written and posted it already.

My Collingwood Almanac is just me being a Collingwood supporter and going about it in the way I have since I was in nappies - thinking up fanciful Collingwood trade scenarios, putting together fantasy best 22s etc.

Covering the AFL draft is what I do on weekends and I write my weekly wrap and monthly power rankings for ESPN around my day job.

Would love with ESPN to expand out into the trade and free agency space though, in addition to the draft space. It was my first love.

 

[Justlokan]

The Collingwood Almanac is for fun and not linked to ESPN. I'd posted this prior to starting my writing with ESPN, so I figured I may as well continue updating it for one final season since I had already written and posted it already.

have I missed something? What do you mean by "final season"? Is this the last edition of the Almanac? NOooooooo