Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

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I can't agree they're good ball users. Pendlebury is a great ball user.

Of those guys though. Sidebottom is a good ball user - efficient and makes good decisions but only average hurt factor. Aish is only an average ball user - has a good style of kick but is not supremely efficient or damaging. Smith is a safe ball user but does zero damage. More is needed in terms of footskills and pace.

You've just argued Aish and Smith are not good kicks because they play it safe, yet advocate for selecting Dal Santo because he is. Dal Santo is very similar to those two. He plays it safe and finds short targets. It's one or the other.
 
Been a fan of his for a few years. Taken 40 contested marks this year (2.1 per game), to go with the 71 goals. What's AFL standard for that level in your eyes, Knight? Late draft/rookie?

A return of 71 goals in the best state league in the country is impressive. Given we need tall forward options, I would be happier with Eddy than Mayne as an example. He's worth a late pick.
 
Been a fan of his for a few years. Taken 40 contested marks this year (2.1 per game), to go with the 71 goals. What's AFL standard for that level in your eyes, Knight? Late draft/rookie?

For me if I'm to quantify at SANFL/VFL/WAFL/NEAFL levels what numbers would be needed to translate to AFL play. (Expectated numbers over 20 games)
60+ goals, 120+ marks, 40+ contested marks. 300+ disposals.

I don't have Eddy's numbers for the season. For goals he'd pass that marker. Otherwise he'd be around about there for marks/contested marks/disposals to estimate or perhaps slightly below.

Given this Eddy probably isn't quite a genuine best 22 player on a good team given he is around that marker rather than clearly ahead. But being around that market he has the capacity to play at AFL level and hold his own.

As a final rookie pick, Eddy in my view with Cloke to be traded would be an excellent list addition and a slight upgrade on White up forward.
 

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You've just argued Aish and Smith are not good kicks because they play it safe, yet advocate for selecting Dal Santo because he is. Dal Santo is very similar to those two. He plays it safe and finds short targets. It's one or the other.

In relative terms v Dal Santo.

Dal Santo v Smith - Dal Santo is the more efficient and more damaging (due to better vision/decision making). Even being looking at the other elements of his game being a more productive player who is more able to win his own ball.

Dal Santo v Aish - Dal Santo is a much more efficient player with greater consistency by foot. Then again looking at production Dal Santo's numbers far eclipse Aish's.

I don't on current play have Smith or Aish close to Dal Santo.

Dal Santo on Collingwood's list I have top 15. Aish and Smith by contrast I have inside my top 35 on current play.

A return of 71 goals in the best state league in the country is impressive. Given we need tall forward options, I would be happier with Eddy than Mayne as an example. He's worth a late pick.

I agree with your view here.

Eddy can be had as a rookie - not attracting much interest or receiving a state or national combine invite.

Mayne is a better pressure player - with that being what he brings by position, but offers less scoreboard impact and obviously being an established player currently on an AFL list and a best 22 player, he would by contrast come at a cost.
 
I think we need to recruit 2 or 3 mature forwards to be honest, and add Daicos and Brown through the draft.

My depth chart up forward is basically empty. I can name a starting 6 and only have Gault in reserve.

I have no issue adding a quality state league player and someone like Mayne. I'd even be comfortable rookie listing a VFL player like Ferguson who could fill in one week and kick a few.

Not every player needs to be a long term prospect. Sometimes you need some depth as well.
 
I think we need to recruit 2 or 3 mature forwards to be honest, and add Daicos and Brown through the draft.

My depth chart up forward is basically empty. I can name a starting 6 and only have Gault in reserve.

I have no issue adding a quality state league player and someone like Mayne. I'd even be comfortable rookie listing a VFL player like Ferguson who could fill in one week and kick a few.

Not every player needs to be a long term prospect. Sometimes you need some depth as well.

If we get players back/recruit well across the back/midfield , would you consider Sidey on a forward flank and add some depth to your chart?
 
I think we need to recruit 2 or 3 mature forwards to be honest, and add Daicos and Brown through the draft.

My depth chart up forward is basically empty. I can name a starting 6 and only have Gault in reserve.

I have no issue adding a quality state league player and someone like Mayne. I'd even be comfortable rookie listing a VFL player like Ferguson who could fill in one week and kick a few.

Not every player needs to be a long term prospect. Sometimes you need some depth as well.

Both Daicos and Brown are worth drafting as long as bids are not unreasonable. Neither are perfect, but they're both developable players and if we can spend selections in the 3rd round or later on them I'm fine with it.

We do have an unusually high proportion of midfielders who are forced to play forward, rather than genuine forwards. So a genuine forward or two would be handy.

Daicos and Brown are combo forward/mids. But can both play forward well in their own rights.

Dan Allsop as a rookie is my main recommendation as a forward. Make Ratugolea late or Battle in the second round as key forwards.

They're probably the names.

Mayne as a free agent I'm also fine with and from a gameplan standpoint could be a fit. I'm not sure Ferguson would be suitable for AFL play. Excellent role player in the VFL, but for a small forward, having such low scoreboard impact in the VFL. I don't see any real appeal compared to what we presently have in Blair.
 
In relative terms v Dal Santo.

Dal Santo v Smith - Dal Santo is the more efficient and more damaging (due to better vision/decision making). Even being looking at the other elements of his game being a more productive player who is more able to win his own ball.

Dal Santo v Aish - Dal Santo is a much more efficient player with greater consistency by foot. Then again looking at production Dal Santo's numbers far eclipse Aish's.

I don't on current play have Smith or Aish close to Dal Santo.

Dal Santo on Collingwood's list I have top 15. Aish and Smith by contrast I have inside my top 35 on current play.



I agree with your view here.

Eddy can be had as a rookie - not attracting much interest or receiving a state or national combine invite.

Mayne is a better pressure player - with that being what he brings by position, but offers less scoreboard impact and obviously being an established player currently on an AFL list and a best 22 player, he would by contrast come at a cost.

Not the Nick Dal Santo of this year. Smiths production and safe, rather than adventurous, field kicking is very much what Dal Santo gave North this year. Aish may not have the numbers, but his improvement end of season was encouraging. His decision making was far better, more ballsy, and better than what Dal Santo gave this year.
 
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Not the Nick Dal Santo of this year. Smiths production and safe, rather than adventurous, field kicking is very much what Dal Santo gave North this year. Aish may not have the numbers, but his improvement end of season was encouraging. His decision making was far better, more ballsy, and better than what Dal Santo gave this year.
As their confidence grew he and Maynard started to kick better, (which most of us suspected would be the case).
 
As their confidence grew he and Maynard started to kick better, (which most of us suspected would be the case).
Maynard is the future. Already so tough and hard as nails.
Agree, got confident and comfortable and starting to go to higher levels.
 
For me if I'm to quantify at SANFL/VFL/WAFL/NEAFL levels what numbers would be needed to translate to AFL play. (Expectated numbers over 20 games)
60+ goals, 120+ marks, 40+ contested marks. 300+ disposals.

I don't have Eddy's numbers for the season. For goals he'd pass that marker. Otherwise he'd be around about there for marks/contested marks/disposals to estimate or perhaps slightly below.

Given this Eddy probably isn't quite a genuine best 22 player on a good team given he is around that marker rather than clearly ahead. But being around that market he has the capacity to play at AFL level and hold his own.

As a final rookie pick, Eddy in my view with Cloke to be traded would be an excellent list addition and a slight upgrade on White up forward.

227 disposals and 104 marks, to go with the aforementioned 71 goals and 40 contested marks, all across 19 games. And 28 tackles.

http://www.sanfl.com.au/league/statistics/2016_league_statistics/
 

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KM..

Using your markers for state footy how far off is Mason Shaw? Only 22 and 197cm.

His first year in WAFL seniors and produced.

21 games
50 goals
121 marks
277 disposals
30 tackles

Gault could only dream of putting up numbers like that in the VFL yet we persist with him.

Would you be willing to rookie Shaw and what are your thoughts on him overall?
 
As their confidence grew he and Maynard started to kick better, (which most of us suspected would be the case).
I thought Marsh's kicking improved a lot toward the end of the season as well (although it is hard to tell really from TV)... did make it to the Hawks game live and thought he was pretty good (but had a few beers in).
My imagination, wishful thinking or do others agree?
 
I thought Marsh's kicking improved a lot toward the end of the season as well (although it is hard to tell really from TV)... did make it to the Hawks game live and thought he was pretty good (but had a few beers in).
My imagination, wishful thinking or do others agree?
He makes some mistakes, (so do more experienced players though) and I don't think he's as bad as others do.
 
For me if I'm to quantify at SANFL/VFL/WAFL/NEAFL levels what numbers would be needed to translate to AFL play. (Expectated numbers over 20 games)
60+ goals, 120+ marks, 40+ contested marks. 300+ disposals.

I don't have Eddy's numbers for the season. For goals he'd pass that marker. Otherwise he'd be around about there for marks/contested marks/disposals to estimate or perhaps slightly below.

Given this Eddy probably isn't quite a genuine best 22 player on a good team given he is around that marker rather than clearly ahead. But being around that market he has the capacity to play at AFL level and hold his own.

As a final rookie pick, Eddy in my view with Cloke to be traded would be an excellent list addition and a slight upgrade on White up forward.
Didnt we have eddy a few years back?
 
Not the Nick Dal Santo of this year. Smiths production and safe, rather than adventurous, field kicking is very much what Dal Santo gave North this year. Aish may not have the numbers, but his improvement end of season was encouraging. His decision making was far better, more ballsy, and better than what Dal Santo gave this year.

Coming into the season I viewed Smith as a poor kick. The more he has played, similar to what Anzacday mentioned below, he has improved his kicking and has also like you've said as a safe kick been reliable. Not looking to penetrate, kick long or do any damage. But he has been mostly reliable - with his work by hand what I've enjoyed most in terms of ball use with his quick delivery and awareness of teammates around him. With Smith I'm not yet to see anything AFL-like. He covers the ground well, works hard. But he is so outside and does no damage. I'm not the least bit excited by him. He can step into the 1s any-day and fit, but he isn't someone who makes you better or has any real bearing on the outcome.

Aish sometimes will take risks, but also turning over the ball, often with bad turnovers, more often. This season I haven't viewed his ball use as reliable and really since moving to AFL level he has yet to have a season where he has displayed for an outside player the expected disposal efficiency or even an above average kick rating. His strength as the season has worn on has been the strength of his marking overhead and some of his aerial work. That has been the one element that has been AFL-like.

Overall I fail to see any major reason to play either of Smith or Aish ahead of Dal Santo.

Even on performance this season on per game numbers at AFL level.
Dal Santo: 25 disposals, 8 contested possessions, 4 marks, 3 tackles, 3 clearances, 3 inside 50s.
Aish: 16 disposals, 6 contested possessions, 3 marks, 3 tackles, 2 clearances, 3 inside 50s, 1 goal.
Smith: 20 disposals, 5 contested possessions, 6 marks, 2 tackles, 1 clearances, 2 inside 50s.

The major difference beyond just production - Dal Santo is a clearly better accumulator and ball winner. But what Dal Santo also does that Aish and Smith just don't is he sets up goals. This he he had 10 goal assists v 3 from Aish and 1 from Smith. Then also his score involvement numbers while I don't have them will also as they have been throughout his career also will be high by any standard. By position these highlighted areas are what you look at to determine usefulness by position. Dal Santo is also doing this while having less clangers per disposal - demonstrating superior consistency in his ball use.
Dal Santo 13 disposals for every clanger.
Aish 8 disposals for every clanger.
Smith 9 disposals for every clanger.
With Dal Santo not only winning more of his disposals in the contest, having the least clangers per disposal and making his disposals count the most with the more score involvements and goal assists. Dal Santo on current play remains in a different class to both Aish and Smith.

227 disposals and 104 marks, to go with the aforementioned 71 goals and 40 contested marks, all across 19 games. And 28 tackles.

http://www.sanfl.com.au/league/statistics/2016_league_statistics/

Thanks for going through the stats MagpieBat.

I use the SANFL website stats weekly myself but just didn't go through his stats for each game. Disposals + marks could definitely be better but those are among all state league competitions nationally the best numbers considering his goals per game, and doing it in the better of the state league competitions at that. For me those numbers are not best 22 standard but suitable if you're wanting a depth player who can step in and perform to an AFL standard with his goal per game numbers per 20 games highly impressive by any standard.

KM..

Using your markers for state footy how far off is Mason Shaw? Only 22 and 197cm.

His first year in WAFL seniors and produced.

21 games
50 goals
121 marks
277 disposals
30 tackles

Gault could only dream of putting up numbers like that in the VFL yet we persist with him.

Would you be willing to rookie Shaw and what are your thoughts on him overall?

Mason Shaw may after Eddy be that next best. And he is young enough. In each category though he is behind my expected marker of 300+ disposals, 120+ marks, 60+ goals if averaged out over 20 games (and in a relatively easier competition by contrast to the SANFL). Given this I would not pick Shaw, viewing him as a lower level depth player.

I thought Marsh's kicking improved a lot toward the end of the season as well (although it is hard to tell really from TV)... did make it to the Hawks game live and thought he was pretty good (but had a few beers in).
My imagination, wishful thinking or do others agree?

Marsh has improved to an extent as a kick. Over the course of last year I would have said the same.

I'd still class him as a poor kick though. Unable to find open targets regularly. Often kicks long to contests. Regular kicks to the opposition. He's still not where he needs to be by foot. More work required.

He is still a very developable talent though with plenty of talent otherwise, so well worth persisting with. Footskills just aren't an area I will credit him for.

Didnt we have eddy a few years back?

Eddy was on the Collingwood VFL list prior to joining South Adelaide in 2014 in the SANFL. That is correct.
 
I like how you've broken down Del Santo v Aish and Smith.
Where you are bang on is on all exposed form, today, Del Santo is clearly ( ! ) the better player and option. Over the next year one would surmise that will remain the same.
However, looking longer term on year on year on year, Aish is the obvious, because Del Santo has max one, two years left? Aish has a decade plus. No brainer long term v one year or so.
Smith to me is handy and is tidy and nice depth. I really admire what he's made of himself from the QLd system and I imagine he's worked his guts out at Collingwood. Id have say Langdon, Ramsay ahead of Smith if they healthy and in good form. But happy we have smith for his ongoing work ethic etc.

All this, supports acquiring Del Danto if he's cheap for a year. Then review year by year. Can't see the harm, even if it's a bust, nothing aimed nothing gained. Easy punt in my view.
 
I like how you've broken down Del Santo v Aish and Smith.
Where you are bang on is on all exposed form, today, Del Santo is clearly ( ! ) the better player and option. Over the next year one would surmise that will remain the same.
However, looking longer term on year on year on year, Aish is the obvious, because Del Santo has max one, two years left? Aish has a decade plus. No brainer long term v one year or so.
Smith to me is handy and is tidy and nice depth. I really admire what he's made of himself from the QLd system and I imagine he's worked his guts out at Collingwood. Id have say Langdon, Ramsay ahead of Smith if they healthy and in good form. But happy we have smith for his ongoing work ethic etc.

All this, supports acquiring Del Danto if he's cheap for a year. Then review year by year. Can't see the harm, even if it's a bust, nothing aimed nothing gained. Easy punt in my view.

With Aish and Smith I'm not certain yet either become genuine best 22 players.

Smith my bet is won't become a best 22 player. Good depth player and improved well this year - likely as you've mentioned on the back of a strong work ethic. But ultimately I view his ceiling as low. He finds the footy but being so outside and low impact. I see him remaining someone who can fit into a side without being someone who necessarily improves you or makes you a good team. I don't overall see what can allow him to become a worthwhile best 22 player.

Aish has a few more attributes that make him a possible in time who could develop but he's someone I have 50/50 still to make the grade. Strong overhead. Reads the flight well. He may be best suited to playing off a back flank. His best position still for me feels unclear. He needs to start finding and winning more of his own ball. Needs to become more consistent and more damaging still by foot than he is. Needs to become stronger in the 1v1s. Needs to start taking on the game more with his run. Improved over the second half of the season but the work is ahead of him.

In terms of what people seem to be getting at. Dal Santo v Aish. Are we likely to win a flag in the next two seasons? It's probably our best opportunity (with Pendlebury still himself) but probably not. So Dal Santo could be discounted simply if you look at it from that perspective.

My view is while AFL experience and games is an important step in the development of young players. I don't believe it needs to be every week from the start for everyone. Aish specifically I feel needs more time developing in the VFL. He isn't AFL standard yet. But going back to the VFL last year he grew in confidence and had the opportunity to expand his game. He still for me needs more of that and at least another solid year of that. He can still have his stints in the AFL when deserved or when injuries happen as at Collingwood they invariably do. But ultimately with Aish and most I'd like to see them earn games and grow at the lower levels.

Ultimately I view the gain of quality veterans as being a more beneficial factor to the development of youth - even in the situation many are required to play VFL football.

So from a win now and developmental perspective I view gaining the likes of Harvey, Dal Santo etc as beneficial.

Brisbane's situation is the perfect current example of this. They lack veteran leadership and as much as they're pumping games into their youth. They still haven't been able to develop a worthwhile young core group, with only those small few established players, worthwhile AFL performers.

Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond are the classic recent examples of teams unable to build through the draft and via youth in the past.
 
Having a gander at the Hawks & Cats game tonight, two of the better teams going around. Distinct lack of key forwards in the game outside of Hawkins and Stanley as a ruck/fwd. These are two of the higher scoring teams going around. Breust, Gunstan, Menzel, Puopolo, Rioli, Bartel, Motlop is where all the scoring gets done.

I think Moore & Cox is enough big guys in our forward line. White as depth. The rest should be smalls or mid sized lead ups. Mostly we have this when you throw Elliot & Fasolo in the mix. We do however need that one genuine quick small forward and maybe one more lead up - but perhaps Crocker is this guy or even Mayne as suggested.
 
With Aish and Smith I'm not certain yet either become genuine best 22 players.

Smith my bet is won't become a best 22 player. Good depth player and improved well this year - likely as you've mentioned on the back of a strong work ethic. But ultimately I view his ceiling as low. He finds the footy but being so outside and low impact. I see him remaining someone who can fit into a side without being someone who necessarily improves you or makes you a good team. I don't overall see what can allow him to become a worthwhile best 22 player.

Aish has a few more attributes that make him a possible in time who could develop but he's someone I have 50/50 still to make the grade. Strong overhead. Reads the flight well. He may be best suited to playing off a back flank. His best position still for me feels unclear. He needs to start finding and winning more of his own ball. Needs to become more consistent and more damaging still by foot than he is. Needs to become stronger in the 1v1s. Needs to start taking on the game more with his run. Improved over the second half of the season but the work is ahead of him.

In terms of what people seem to be getting at. Dal Santo v Aish. Are we likely to win a flag in the next two seasons? It's probably our best opportunity (with Pendlebury still himself) but probably not. So Dal Santo could be discounted simply if you look at it from that perspective.

My view is while AFL experience and games is an important step in the development of young players. I don't believe it needs to be every week from the start for everyone. Aish specifically I feel needs more time developing in the VFL. He isn't AFL standard yet. But going back to the VFL last year he grew in confidence and had the opportunity to expand his game. He still for me needs more of that and at least another solid year of that. He can still have his stints in the AFL when deserved or when injuries happen as at Collingwood they invariably do. But ultimately with Aish and most I'd like to see them earn games and grow at the lower levels.

Ultimately I view the gain of quality veterans as being a more beneficial factor to the development of youth - even in the situation many are required to play VFL football.

So from a win now and developmental perspective I view gaining the likes of Harvey, Dal Santo etc as beneficial.

Brisbane's situation is the perfect current example of this. They lack veteran leadership and as much as they're pumping games into their youth. They still haven't been able to develop a worthwhile young core group, with only those small few established players, worthwhile AFL performers.

Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond are the classic recent examples of teams unable to build through the draft and via youth in the past.
Comprehensive assessment.
I'm always thinking of our best team, and Smith is never making it save for injuries. But good luck to him and admire so much his work ethic.
I'm with you re older players joining for their experience, leadership (on field or off field or both) their drive, their standards.
So be year on the cheap, why not? Harvey my first preference and Del S second choice or even both
 
Having a gander at the Hawks & Cats game tonight, two of the better teams going around. Distinct lack of key forwards in the game outside of Hawkins and Stanley as a ruck/fwd. These are two of the higher scoring teams going around. Breust, Gunstan, Menzel, Puopolo, Rioli, Bartel, Motlop is where all the scoring gets done.

I think Moore & Cox is enough big guys in our forward line. White as depth. The rest should be smalls or mid sized lead ups. Mostly we have this when you throw Elliot & Fasolo in the mix. We do however need that one genuine quick small forward and maybe one more lead up - but perhaps Crocker is this guy or even Mayne as suggested.

In the cases of Geelong and Hawthorn, I view it less that smalls are more important than they both just generally have quality across the field but both lack the quality talls. Geelong have Hawkins, Taylor, Lonergan and Blicavs who are all terrific. But they lack that second great key forward, or a great lead ruckman. Geelong are great because of their midfield superiority and the experience and chemistry built over time down back.
Hawthorn on the other hand lack any good size. Roughead is out. Lake retired. Frawley, Gibson and Gunston are all undersized. Hawthorn are terrific on the basis of their ball movement superiority - caused via their ability after marks to off one or two steps move it quickly to the next guy. Then further to this they also have the experience and chemistry across the field to win.
So neither club are perfect, but they're both good I'd say on the back of experience and quality veterans primarily if I'm to identify why they're both great, rather than something structurally that they do that others don't.

Sydney and GWS when you see that final, you'll find will be completely contrasting. Sydney with Buddy, Tippett and Sinclair as that fwd/ruck combination. GWS have Cameron, Lobb and Patton. Competition wide West Coast with Kennedy, Naitanui (through out now), Darling and Lycett are that only other group that would fit in the conversation of the teams with the best key forwards and rucks.

Even just listening to Joel Selwood in the interview on tv now. He's talking about how well he knows Bartel's game and knows what he'll do, that he'll be clean etc. That's such a big part of winning and one of the real competitive advantages relative to other teams that these kinds of teams have.

With Collingwood looking at Mayne Collingwood probably have a similar view that going small with Mayne - with all the marking smaller types along with Moore and Cox is enough.

I'd definitely go the two premier bigs if that was possible.

The problem in our situation is that this year through the draft the options are less than ideal. Through trade there aren't any great options available. Through free agency the options aren't there. And with Cloke wanting out.

Maybe while unorthodox from a gameplan standpoint probably works. The club have the marking smalls and medium sizers, so having Mayne up forward for extra pressure fits the mix. His goalkicking output is not sufficient for a forward of any kind, but otherwise his tackles, marks, disposals etc over a span of the years have been excellent. So if you're able to live with that, then Mayne is a fine addition until we draft and develop the next guy through the draft up forward to pair with Moore.

Comprehensive assessment.
I'm always thinking of our best team, and Smith is never making it save for injuries. But good luck to him and admire so much his work ethic.
I'm with you re older players joining for their experience, leadership (on field or off field or both) their drive, their standards.
So be year on the cheap, why not? Harvey my first preference and Del S second choice or even both

Both for me are in the absolute must camp. I'm with you that Harvey is the greater priority. Top 5 on list v top 15 on list.
 
Just reading about Collingwood potentially having interest in Ivan Maric.

Love it!

Not quite Dal Santo level news, but another terrific sign.

Having Grundy who is top five in the game already by position but still young. Then Cox who also is young and developing.

If Witts is traded. Maric for veteran leadership and depth is perfect to have in the depth stocks as that Ben Hudson type who can step into the AFL side as required but offer plenty for leadership.

Sounds like another update may be due some time soon on page one with all these potentially available players and newly rumoured potential list additions.
 

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Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

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