Opinion Collingwood and Richmond, who finishes higher in 2023?

[White Dogg]

So the best way for a team to beat Collingwood is to attack and hurt them more than they make a team pay for their mistakes. More succinctly, the best way to beat Collingwood is indeed to outscore them. I suspected as much when Brisbane's score was higher than Collingwood's a few weeks ago, it's just hard to come to a confident conclusion on such a small sample size.

Brisbane match up well on Collingwood because they have the firepower to beat them in a shoot out. Apart from Geelong I don't think any other side has enough firepower to outscore Collingwood.

 

[PizzaPie]

Brisbane match up well on Collingwood because they have the firepower to beat them in a shoot out. Apart from Geelong I don't think any other side has enough firepower to outscore Collingwood.

The Saints got within a goal. Essendon got within 2 goals and was in front with half a quarter to go. Even the struggling Tigers got within 14 points. It's a bit simplistic to declare one side as the only one with the firepower to do it because they are the only side to have done it six weeks in (and in a game where Collingwood scored 28 times vs. Brisbane's more accurate 26). I'd bet Brisbane won't be the only team that beats Collingwood this year, I am sure some other coach will successfully execute outscore the opposition tactics against them at some stage.

 

[fishardansin]

So the best way for a team to beat Collingwood is to attack and hurt them more than they make a team pay for their mistakes. More succinctly, the best way to beat Collingwood is indeed to outscore them. I suspected as much when Brisbane's score was higher than Collingwood's a few weeks ago, it's just hard to come to a confident conclusion on such a small sample size.

Well, try and use their strength against them because they are vulnerable back the other way. When the other team gets right on top for long enough Collingwood look lost as they're caught between running forward and defending.

 

[South of the Yarra]

Richmond finish 3rd, Pies 6-7th.

I just don’t see Pies getting that close game win streak again and teams will have figured them out already. I love Fly, but he is a one trick pony that literally just copied our style.

Recruits will improve them a bit but not enough imo. Pretty much everybody in the top 8 has improved their list better or at least on par with them.


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How is this prediction going? Long way off the mark by the look of it. I would suggest Richmonds list is significantly worse

 

[South of the Yarra]

What depth ?

With 7 missing from our best 22 over the last month our depth seems pretty damn good.

 

[South of the Yarra]

Only Collingwood fans will pick Collingwood lol

Well only Collingwood supporters would be right

 

[South of the Yarra]

Think Tigers finish top 4, Pies in the mix for a 5th to 8th finish

Hmmmnn

 

[South of the Yarra]

Richmond - easy.

How is that prediction tracking?

 

[South of the Yarra]

I don't think it is close. Not writing off the possibility that Richmond has a disaster year with injuries and recruits don't settle and the walls close in, however, they had all that last year.

Collingwood had a lucky run with close wins through the middle of the year and Richmond had the complete opposite. Collingwood's percentage of 104 vs Richmond's of 121 is the clearest reminder of where these two teams are at.

Adding the size of Dusty, Hopper and Taranto around the ball will make a big difference to Richmond's fleet-footed short people. I also expect that it allows Dusty to play a lot more forward and that combined with Lynch means that they have a more well-rounded forward line. They also have the same level of intercepting defenders, but with Bolta there is another string to their bow. I hope for Richmond's sake that we don't see a lot of Riewoldt and Tarrant. If those two are playing a lot of VFL footy at full fitness, then Richmond is going to be a side well entrenched in the top 4.

I "expect" Collingwood to be just in or just out of the finals. I don't write off a bottom 6 finish for them either. Depends on how they bounce back from what looks like a 1-3 start to the year.

Seems to be a horrible prediction.

 

[VinnieB]

Only Collingwood fans will pick Collingwood lol

How funny was this…..

 

[South of the Yarra]

Then perhaps have a look and see the Richmond v Collingwood game in 2022 as an indication and totally disregard circumstances

The Collingwood vs Richmond game of 2023 would be a better indicator

 

[South of the Yarra]

Percentage is a far better indicator than W/L. The Pies will drop down a bit this year. Think they'll still make finals but likely 7th or 8th as they should've last year if a couple of results didn't go their way.

Tigers top 4 as their percentage and points for showed. Lock it in.

How is the percentage theory working?

 

[South of the Yarra]

I’d be more worried about who’s going to cover crab Mitchell’s lack of two way running.
Not to mention the lucky oppo forward that gets matched up on bustlin Billy Frampton each week. There’s a monty for leading goal kicker in a game if ever I’ve seen one.

Well seems a long way off the mark

 

[South of the Yarra]

Seems to me my point is correct. Collingwood's percentage improved from 2017-2018 culminating in a grand final run, and was still respectable in '19/'20 although starting to trend down. Not much of a clue what happened in 2021 - maybe you had a bunch of injuries / the Buckley saga etc. down year's happen (similar to Richmond 2016 - see below). Then you jumped back up again with a percentage more in line with the decline shown in previous seasons.

Look at Richmond from 2010-2017. Our percentage and ladder position steadily got better as the team developed, then we had a down year in 2016, before rebounding and winning the first flag of 3 in 2017. And rather than listen to the media knee-jerk morons like Lloyd who recommended we go full rebuild, the club recognized that the trajectory was steadily improving and that sometimes outlier years happen. The rest has been history.

My point is that the Pies top 4 / prelim final finish last year is a bit suspect. Looking at the percentage from 2018-2022, it's been on the decline. As I said before, if Collingwood had lost a few of those close matches then they would've finished around the 8, which is in line with their percentage drop. Maybe they'll prove me wrong however some aging / injury prone midfielders (Pendlebury, Adams) and trading out Grundy I think will be the tipping point. Hence why I think you'll finish around 8th.

Your point seems wrong

 

[Do the Dew]

Your point seems wrong

You've got a lot of time on your hands digging up old posts. Collingwood doing well, percentage is poor for a 6 and 1 team. They've definitely kept the lucky streak of close games going from last year. Maybe this time it'll be a different result in finals? If Essendon could've held a 5 goal lead, or Adelaide had converted better, the Pies would be 4 and 3 and sitting about 8th.

 

[South of the Yarra]

You've got a lot of time on your hands digging up old posts. Collingwood doing well, percentage is poor for a 6 and 1 team. They've definitely kept the lucky streak of close games going from last year. Maybe this time it'll be a different result in finals? If Essendon could've held a 5 goal lead, or Adelaide had converted better, the Pies would be 4 and 3 and sitting about 8th.

I do have a lot of time. Retired. Living the life. Actually Collingwood's percentage is outstanding considering they haven’t played 18th, 17th, 15th,14th,13th,12th, 11th and 10th.

 

[Rich01]

I do have a lot of time. Retired. Living the life.

Congrats South. Well deserved.
I’m not there yet.
Still in the midst of hustle and bustle of career and family.

 

[Fadge]

How is this prediction going? Long way off the mark by the look of it. I would suggest Richmonds list is significantly worse

More importantly, how is Falcon going?!?

 

[Fadge]

You've got a lot of time on your hands digging up old posts. Collingwood doing well, percentage is poor for a 6 and 1 team. They've definitely kept the lucky streak of close games going from last year. Maybe this time it'll be a different result in finals? If Essendon could've held a 5 goal lead, or Adelaide had converted better, the Pies would be 4 and 3 and sitting about 8th.

Yeah, hopefully our percentage improves once we start playing some teams in the bottom half of the table.

Or not, who cares as long as we continue to win our fair share of matches...

 

[Fadge]

I do have a lot of time. Retired. Living the life. Actually Collingwood's percentage is outstanding considering they haven’t played 18th, 17th, 15th,14th,13th,12th, 11th and 10th.

Really?

So the only poor team we've played so far is.... Richmond?

 

[VinnieB]

You've got a lot of time on your hands digging up old posts. Collingwood doing well, percentage is poor for a 6 and 1 team. They've definitely kept the lucky streak of close games going from last year. Maybe this time it'll be a different result in finals? If Essendon could've held a 5 goal lead, or Adelaide had converted better, the Pies would be 4 and 3 and sitting about 8th.

Unfortunately the only bottom team we have played this season has been Richmond. We’ll have our opportunity to boost %.

‘If’ Essendon, ‘if’ Adelaide etc etc.

‘If’ they were better than Collingwood they would have won. ‘If’ we had a full team we would have won by more.

You can take comfort in your ‘if’s’.
The rest of us just deal with reality.

 

[South of the Yarra]

Congrats South. Well deserved.
I’m not there yet.
Still in the midst of hustle and bustle of career and family.

Enjoy every moment mate

 

[Do the Dew]

Unfortunately the only bottom team we have played this season has been Richmond. We’ll have our opportunity to boost %.

‘If’ Essendon, ‘if’ Adelaide etc etc.

‘If’ they were better than Collingwood they would have won. ‘If’ we had a full team we would have won by more.

You can take comfort in your ‘if’s’.
The rest of us just deal with reality.

You've had a remarkable run of wins in close games and banking on things to fall your way isn't sustainable. Eventually, the house will win and you'll start losing those close ones. Hence the percentage analogy.

 

[VinnieB]

You've had a remarkable run of wins in close games and banking on things to fall your way isn't sustainable. Eventually, the house will win and you'll start losing those close ones. Hence the percentage analogy.

Ok

 

[Do the Dew]

Ok

Ok.