Opinion Collingwood and Richmond, who finishes higher in 2023?

[Fadge]

Are they shorter in percentage compared to others

WTF is 'shorter in percentage'?!?

 

[Boppo]

Big first 2 weeks for Richmond, a couple of 50-50 games (expect Crows at home to be hard work). Face 5 weeks of 2022 finalists after that.

 

[beerbandit]

Richmond finish 3rd, Pies 6-7th.

I just don’t see Pies getting that close game win streak again and teams will have figured them out already. I love Fly, but he is a one trick pony that literally just copied our style.

Recruits will improve them a bit but not enough imo. Pretty much everybody in the top 8 has improved their list better or at least on par with them.


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Last time we were called one trick ponies it ended well for the opposition.

 

[Arr0w]

Yeah, you're no chance if you finish 4th....

Never said you couldn't win from 4th, but given you believe you are some kind of expert on probability, perhaps you should do some research, on how many sides have won the flag in the last 25 years, who finished outside the top 3

 

[Fadge]

Never said you couldn't win from 4th, but given you believe you are some kind of expert on probability, perhaps you should do some research, on how many sides have won the flag in the last 25 years, who finished outside the top 3

1. I'm by no means an expert in probability, though I do understand it, unlike yourself who believes we sure refer to the non-existent mathematical function of 'possibility' if the probability of an event is less than 50%;
2. I am aware that no team has yet won the premiership from 4th since 2000 (when the current finals system was introduced);
3. I know enough about probability to know that a dataset of 23 is insufficient to draw a meaningful conclusion;
4. I have enough common-sense to know that over the long term, we are a lot more likely to see the 4th placed team perform better in the finals series based on the way the finals series is structured. I mean, do you think 7 premiership and 5 runners-up for the 3rd place finisher at the end of the home and away season compared to 3 runner-up finishes to the 4th placegetter is realistic over the long term when comparing the difference between finishing 3rd and 4th?

 

[Arr0w]

1. I'm by no means an expert in probability, though I do understand it, unlike yourself who believes we sure refer to the non-existent mathematical function of 'possibility' if the probability of an event is less than 50%;

Unfortunately, it has no bearing on the facts, 1 in 25 flags from sides finishing outside the top 3. That's your current dataset for possibility and probability

2. I am aware that no team has yet won the premiership from 4th since 2000 (when the current finals system was introduced);

Again, not about finishing 4th, its about finishing outside the top 3

3. I know enough about probability to know that a dataset of 23 is insufficient to draw a meaningful conclusion;

It's actually 25, your inept maths available is again on show

4. I have enough common-sense to know that over the long term, we are a lot more likely to see the 4th placed team perform better in the finals series based on the way the finals series is structured. I mean, do you think 7 premiership and 5 runners-up for the 3rd place finisher at the end of the home and away season compared to 3 runner-up finishes to the 4th placegetter is realistic over the long term when comparing the difference between finishing 3rd and 4th?

While the difference could be minimal end of H&A , the following scenarios disadvantage the side finishing 4th having to play 1st, compared to 3rd playing 2nd

But, that's where you have always struggled, as your analysis is at a basic level

Back to the OP, I believe the Tigers will finish above the Pies

 

[Fadge]

Unfortunately, it has no bearing on the facts, 1 in 25 flags from sides finishing outside the top 3. That's your current dataset for possibility and probability

Yeah, you don't get it... and where on earth did you pull 25 flags from?

It's actually 25, your inept maths available is again on show

WTAF? There's been 25 seasons since the current finals system was introduced in 2000?

Again, WTAF?

While the difference could be minimal end of H&A , the following scenarios disadvantage the side finishing 4th having to play 1st, compared to 3rd playing 2nd

The 3rd placed team will also generally have to go through the top team at some stage as well.

Come on, use what little common-sense you have... do you seriously think the difference we have historically seen in success rates between 3rd and 4th is indicative of the difference in finishing positions at the end of the home and away season, based on how the finals system works?

 

[Arr0w]

Yeah, you don't get it... and where on earth did you pull 25 flags from?

WTAF? There's been 25 seasons since the current finals system was introduced in 2000?

Again, WTAF?

The 3rd placed team will also generally have to go through the top team at some stage as well.

Come on, use what little common-sense you have... do you seriously think the difference we have historically seen in success rates between 3rd and 4th is indicative of the difference in finishing positions at the end of the home and away season, based on how the finals system works?

You realise the top 8 has been in existence before 2000, even though the finals format has changed, yeah?

 

[Fadge]

You realise the top 8 has been in existence before 2000, even though the finals format has changed, yeah?

No shite Sherlock.

But when analysing the probability of teams winning from different positions in the top 8 I like to base it on a consistent finals format, given the finals format pre 2000 was very different to that which has been in place since.

But maybe that's just me....

And if your 'analysis' is based simply on when a top 8 was introduced, why on earth are you only going back to 1998 as opposed to 1994?

 

[Arr0w]

No shite Sherlock.

But when analysing the probability of teams winning from different positions in the top 8 I like to base it on a consistent finals format, given the finals format pre 2000 was very different to that which has been in place since.

But maybe that's just me....

And if your 'analysis' is based simply on when a top 8 was introduced, why on earth are you only going back to 1998 as opposed to 1994?

Make it simple for you Fadge

Finish top 3, gives you over a 95% probability, chance of winning a flag under the current format of over 2 decades

But, it has little to do with the Pies once again winning such a large, unsustainable, ratio of games under 2 goals

 

[Fadge]

Make it simple for you Fadge

Finish top 3, gives you over a 95% probability, chance of winning a flag under the current format of over 2 decades

Yep, of course it does....

Would you put your life savings on the top 3 teams winning over 95% of the next 23 flags if you were offered an even money bet?

Because if you would, your common-sense is non-existent and you have NFI about probability.

But good to see you're now referring to the 'current format'. You do listen sometimes. Bravo!

 

[Fadge]

But, it has little to do with the Pies once again winning such a large, unsustainable, ratio of games under 2 goals

Yes.... that probability thingy again....

I enjoy supporting a team who has belief and the ability to consistently execute under pressure.

 

[Cameron_Jezza]

Both miss top 4, so that's my view. Both need more free agents to stay up, good ones don't grow on trees.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Back to the OP, I believe the Tigers will finish above the Pies

At least that will give you an interest when your side is out of contention by mid-July.

 

[Arr0w]

Yep, of course it does....

Would you put your life savings on the top 3 teams winning over 95% of the next 23 flags if you were offered an even money bet?

Because if you would, your common-sense is non-existent and you have NFI about probability.

But good to see you're now referring to the 'current format'. You do listen sometimes. Bravo!

We have already had this discussion before

 

[Arr0w]

Yes.... that probability thingy again....

I enjoy supporting a team who has belief and the ability to consistently execute under pressure.

But not including GFs

 

[Fadge]

We have already had this discussion before

Strange that I don't recall discussions I've had with you.

Remind me how it ended?

 

[Arr0w]

Strange that I don't recall discussions I've had with you.

Remind me how it ended?

Stay focused on the thread title fadge, although we already know your predictions, Pies first, Tigers miss the 8

 

[Fadge]

Stay focused on the thread title fadge, although we already know your predictions, Pies first, Tigers miss the 8

I think I actually said Collingwood won't lose a game all year.

 

[Arr0w]

I think I actually said Collingwood won't lose a game all year.

Apart from another GF?

 

[Danw0w]

90,000 at the G in two weeks time? The intensity will be off the charts!

 

[South of the Yarra]

I mean how could teams possibly match up with Lethal Leigh Taranto and Duck Hopper. Seriously when did these two become superstars. The Tigers have the most over rated list in the Comp after Carlton’s. They will not make the 8

Looks like the prediction that brought the ire of Tigers fans was pretty spot on.

 

[South of the Yarra]

Richmond finish 3rd, Pies 6-7th.

I just don’t see Pies getting that close game win streak again and teams will have figured them out already. I love Fly, but he is a one trick pony that literally just copied our style.

Recruits will improve them a bit but not enough imo. Pretty much everybody in the top 8 has improved their list better or at least on par with them.


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Maybe Richmond hasn’t improved their list

 

[South of the Yarra]

I don't think it is close. Not writing off the possibility that Richmond has a disaster year with injuries and recruits don't settle and the walls close in, however, they had all that last year.

Collingwood had a lucky run with close wins through the middle of the year and Richmond had the complete opposite. Collingwood's percentage of 104 vs Richmond's of 121 is the clearest reminder of where these two teams are at.

Adding the size of Dusty, Hopper and Taranto around the ball will make a big difference to Richmond's fleet-footed short people. I also expect that it allows Dusty to play a lot more forward and that combined with Lynch means that they have a more well-rounded forward line. They also have the same level of intercepting defenders, but with Bolta there is another string to their bow. I hope for Richmond's sake that we don't see a lot of Riewoldt and Tarrant. If those two are playing a lot of VFL footy at full fitness, then Richmond is going to be a side well entrenched in the top 4.

I "expect" Collingwood to be just in or just out of the finals. I don't write off a bottom 6 finish for them either. Depends on how they bounce back from what looks like a 1-3 start to the year.

You fell for the old Hopper and Taranto are better than Leigh Matthews

 

[South of the Yarra]

Percentage is a far better indicator than W/L. The Pies will drop down a bit this year. Think they'll still make finals but likely 7th or 8th as they should've last year if a couple of results didn't go their way.

Tigers top 4 as their percentage and points for showed. Lock it in.

Oh we have locked it