Collingwood are a certainty this week

[ShinSplints]

Collingwood easily I agree. They have it over the crows. FFS they just smashed em what a month ago__ How quickly people forget. WOW adelaide has been smashing bottom 8 sides WOW!!

Collingwood by at LEAST 5 goals.

 

[Danny MacGill]

Adelaide to me are the most predictable side in the comp to bet on, they win all the games they should comfortably but have lost games where they have been outclassed.
I will not be touching this game, but i was suprised to see Adelaide favourites, agree with most people it's a 50/50 contest and the margin won't be any more than 3 goals i wouldn't think and I don't think the thread would have been made if Collingwood were favourites.

 

[moogerfooger]

in 1998 North Melb beat us comprehensively at home in Round 20 (IIRC), yet we still beat them by 6 goals in the Grand Final, despite every statistic in the world saying it was impossible.

it's finals, anything can happen and this should be a great game.

 

[jenny61_99]

Collingwood easily I agree. They have it over the crows. FFS they just smashed em what a month ago__ How quickly people forget. WOW adelaide has been smashing bottom 8 sides WOW!!

Collingwood by at LEAST 5 goals.

97 still eats you yes?

Nobody has forgotten anything. We are a different team to when we played Collingwood last - playing confident, team football.

We lose VB, Walker and Shirley from the last time we played and gain Hentschell, Dangerfield and Mackay - 3 pretty handy ins. We didn't have Bock last time either.

The last time we played the Pies we'd just come off a heartbreaking 2 point loss to Geelong at Skilled Stadium and we'd lost Bock to injury. This time we've now played without him for 5 games, so we've worked out how to cover his loss, and we are playing some good footy. Confidence is up. Belief is there. We are every chance.

 

[tim_saints]

Pies shouldn't ad won't hav two bad weeks in a row I don't think. Collingwood like to be the team with there backs against the wall injuries, 2nd chance gone etc.

Pies by 3 goals

 

[tim_saints]

97 still eats you yes?

Nobody has forgotten anything. We are a different team to when we played Collingwood last - playing confident, team football.

We lose VB, Walker and Shirley from the last time we played and gain Hentschell, Dangerfield and Mackay - 3 pretty handy ins. We didn't have Bock last time either.

The last time we played the Pies we'd just come off a heartbreaking 2 point loss to Geelong at Skilled Stadium and we'd lost Bock to injury. This time we've now played without him for 5 games, so we've worked out how to cover his loss, and we are playing some good footy. Confidence is up. Belief is there. We are every chance.

There's one thing you don't have that you did in 97. Darren Jarman.

 

[jenny61_99]

There's one thing you don't have that you did in 97. Darren Jarman.

Nah, but hey, Tippett, Dangerfield, Porplyzia, Knights, Hentschell and Burton are kind of handy. An old soul in McLeod is still wandering around too.

 

[Crow-mo]

There's one thing you don't have that you did in 97. Darren Jarman.

and you don't have Jamie Shanaghan, so we're even

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

We lose VB, Walker and Shirley from the last time we played and gain Hentschell, Dangerfield and Mackay - 3 pretty handy ins. We didn't have Bock last time either. .

Of those ins Collingwood will only be concerned about Mackay and that is offset by Van Berlo going out. Dangerfield is basically a first year player (albeit a very good one) while Hentschell is not yet a significant danger after a major injury. While its good to see him back he really needs a full injury free preseason. Bock wont play and if he does he will go in under a cloud.

 

[bobshoby]

i'm surprised we're favourites going into an away final against a top 4 side like collingwood, it's a totally different ball park to the games we've had in recent weeks and i'm certain it'll go down to the wire.

 

[Macca18]

There are so many posts from Crows supporters on this thread that make me cringe.

This is a team that finished 5th on the ladder and playing away from home in a sudden death Semi Final against a side that comfortably defeated them only weeks ago on their home ground. Cue the "Ohhh... but Adelaide had more inside 50's that night" , "Ohhh... but Adelaide had 45 more possessions that night" , "Ohhh... but Adelaide didn't have Trent Henschel" , "Ohhh... but we beat a depleted 8th placed Essendon at home last week by 16 goals" posts...

Pies, comfortably.

 

[royalsfan]

Adelaide - in a canter

 

[SaintsSeptember]

There are so many posts from Crows supporters on this thread that make me cringe.

This is a team that finished 5th on the ladder and playing away from home in a sudden death Semi Final against a side that comfortably defeated them only weeks ago on their home ground. Cue the "Ohhh... but Adelaide had more inside 50's that night" , "Ohhh... but Adelaide had 45 more possessions that night" , "Ohhh... but Adelaide didn't have Trent Henschel" , "Ohhh... but we beat a depleted 8th placed Essendon at home last week by 16 goals" posts...

Pies, comfortably.

Someone's still hurting after the loss. Maybe you should find a Carlton supporter to hug.

 

[arrowman]

There are so many posts from Crows supporters on this thread that make me cringe.

Thank you for your concern

This is a team that finished 5th on the ladder vs the team that finsihed 4th on the ladder with, at this stage, exactly the same win-loss record for the season and almost exactly the same percentage and playing away from home where, interestingly enough, their record against Collingwood in recent years is better than their record at home in a sudden death Semi Final what does that have to do with determing which side has favourtism? Or is that just padding to make your argument look better? against a side that comfortably defeated them only weeks ago on their home ground and since when both teams have changed, both in personnel and performance. Cue the "Ohhh... but Adelaide had more inside 50's that night" yes, we did - and only 2 fewer scoring shots, 9.14 to 13.11, so an improvement in forward efficiency (guess what we've seen consistently in the 4 games since then) is a big tick vs round 19, "Ohhh... but Adelaide had 45 more possessions that night" haven't seen that one - you're making this up, arent' you?, "Ohhh... but Adelaide didn't have Trent Henschel" oversimplified sumary of the perfectly reasonable argument that Adelaide's personnel is stronger this week than in round 19, "Ohhh... but we beat a depleted 8th placed Essendon at home last week by 16 goals" once again, you're making this up, noone is using the fact that we thrashed Essendon as a reason we will beat Collingwood posts...

Pies, comfortably.

So, despite the almost universal assessment from footy pundits (including most Collingwood and Adelaide supporters) that this is a 50-50 game, you think it's "Pies, comfortably" based on - well, based on the fact that the Pies won the last time these two teams played, and nothing else.

Fair enough.

 

[adelcrows]

If you think you will just lob Saturday night and kick 26+ goals against Collingwood please think again.

Collingwood beat Adelaide in there yard only 4 weeks ago by 4 goals.

Yes and before you Adelaide plebs clog the thread with with "Inside 50 stats" "Contested pos stats" "Hit outs stats" "Running bounces stats" and god knows what other stats you won on the night we all know there is only one stat that matters and that's the one on the scoreboard.

It'll end in tears for your so called 25,000 pleb army making the trip over the border just like it did in 2002 and 2008

Pies by 24 points.

I love that you are all using this as if it means its all over from a recent win, recent memory is we beat WC at Subi to take top spot then lost at home in the Prelim, happens quite regularly..

 

[MACDAICOS]

I love that you are all using this as if it means its all over from a recent win, recent memory is we beat WC at Subi to take top spot then lost at home in the Prelim, happens quite regularly..

What does PF 2006 have to do with Semi Final 2009

 

[moogerfooger]

What does PF 2006 have to do with Semi Final 2009

about as much as round 19 has to do with a semi final - sweet **** all.

 

[captain peanut]

about as much as round 19 has to do with a semi final - sweet **** all.

i might be Captain Peanut but it seems we may have found General Peanut

so a virtual final only 5 weeks ago between essentially the same line ups that will take the field this sat night means nothing does it?? i can only hope the adel brains trust take the same view but i doubt it

 

[Willis]

so a virtual final only 5 weeks ago between essentially the same line ups that will take the field this sat night means nothing does it?? i can only hope the adel brains trust take the same view but i doubt it

Previous performances will have no impact on the performance of the two teams this week. Just because one team won a few weeks ago does not increase their chances of winning again.

 

[MACDAICOS]

Previous performances will have no impact on the performance of the two teams this week. Just because one team won a few weeks ago does not increase their chances of winning again.

Yeah but Scott 'pleb' Thompson said the boys gained confidence from the win in Round 1 at the M.C.G

 

[Willis]

Yeah but Scott 'pleb' Thompson said the boys gained confidence from the win in Round 1 at the M.C.G

The players answer questions from the media and say what they are told to say by the media managers.

What should he have said instead? We have 0 confidence because we lost a few weeks ago to Collingwood at home, we realise we have no chance of winning so we just give up now?

 

[MACDAICOS]

the players answer questions from the media and say what they are told to say by the media managers.

Oh. O.K

 

[jenny61_99]

i might be Captain Peanut but it seems we may have found General Peanut

so a virtual final only 5 weeks ago between essentially the same line ups that will take the field this sat night means nothing does it?? i can only hope the adel brains trust take the same view but i doubt it

How do you figure it will be "essentially the same line ups"??

You'll be without Pendlebury - a HUGE out IMO, and we'll have the inclusion of Hentschell, Dangerfield and Mackay - all big ins.

 

[arrowman]

What about all the stats from the game though, and how many goals you have kicked in the last 2 weeks

Pleb.

The stats that matter have nothing to do with the number of goals. They have to do with accuracy and scoring efficiency (per inside 50).

The reality is that Adelaide were very inefficient in R19, and they have improved consistently in every game since. By contrast Collingwood have gone backwards.

Now you can argue that this is also a measure of the quality of the opposition, and of course that has some merit. But the difference is sharp enough that you can't put it all down to the opposition.

That is why the R19 result is not as important as some Collingwood supporters think it is. That doesn't make us outright favourites, but it does blow away the "we beat you in R19, so we'll beat you again" argument.

50-50. That's all you can say about this game.

 

[MACDAICOS]

The stats that matter have nothing to do with the number of goals. They have to do with accuracy and scoring efficiency (per inside 50).

The reality is that Adelaide were very inefficient in R19, and they have improved consistently in every game since. By contrast Collingwood have gone backwards

Yep the 93 point win over Richmond and the 41 point win over Sydney was a huge setback after the Adelaide game.