List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion

[riddick78]

The de Goey situation makes things a lot murkier. If (I pray this doesn't happen) JDG leaves as an RFA and we get McStay as a FA, we will get net compo for our loss, which would be minimal.

So we would end up with an older, objectively far lesser player, plus a few hundred grand of cap relief and something like a 3rd round draft pick. That would be no bueno.

Unless we trade for McStay or the 3rd team could trade for DeGoey, going off last trade period, Wright has shown his a very clever operator.

I'm willing to trust (at the moment) the coaches and recruitment. From what i've seen of McStay he's meh, i really really really hope i'm wrong and he becomes a great player for us and i hope DeGoey stays as well.

 

[sideswipe]

Back in the money: Who are the AFL's million-dollar men?

Check out the AFL's total player payment figures from 2021 as footy recovered from pandemic disruptions

www.afl.com.au

Based upon the 2021 figures:

$	2021​
$0-$60,000	1​
$60,001-$100,000	18​
$100,001-$200,000	133​
$200,001-$300,000	119​
$300,001-$400,000	117​
$400,001-$500,000	109​
$500,001-$600,000	68​
$600,001-$700,000	46​
$700,001-$800,000	24​
$800,001-$900,000	11​
$900,001-$1,000,000	3​
$1,000,001-$1,100,000	2​
$1,100,001-$1,200,000	1​
$1,200,001+	3​
TOTAL	655​

Therefore if McStay was paid:
- $600K pa he would be in the top 14% or 90 players in the comp
- $500K pa he would be in the top 24% or 158 players in the comp
- $400K pa he would be in the top 41% or 267 players in the comp

If you believe in player rankings:

2024 SI AFL Player Ratings | Player Rankings

Get ahead of the game with Stats Insider's 2024 AFL Player Ratings. Discover comprehensive player rankings and stats to inform your footy predictions.

www.statsinsider.com.au

Has McStay ranked 231 (ahead of Mihocek?)

AFL Stats - AFL.com.au

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www.afl.com.au

Has McStay ranked 247

A little unfair. $600k in the 2023 TPP (not to mention out to the 2027 TPP) is a much smaller proportion than when considered as part of the 2021 cap.

 

[riddick78]

For sure. But I would expect he would know coming to a big club like ours especially in melb, all that attention he'll have to adjust to.. no matter what he is getting paid.

Time will decide.

I really hope he has thought of that, but in saying that, i will put my trust in the club for the time being, Wright has shown he's a smooth operator, my opinion of McStay aside, i hope he becomes a great player at CFC, if the deal gets done.

 

[Couch Coach]

A little unfair. $600k in the 2023 TPP (not to mention out to the 2027 TPP) is a much smaller proportion than when considered as part of the 2021 cap.

Agreed but I don't have any information on how the TPP changed from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 onwards.

The TPP increased by 38% from 2020 to 2021 to regain Covid cutbacks but this is not realistic to forcast future years.

 

[Jen2310]

I really hope he has thought of that, but in saying that, i will put my trust in the club for the time being, Wright has shown he's a smooth operator, my opinion of McStay aside, i hope he becomes a great player at CFC, if the deal gets done.

Wright and fly has not let us down yet. No reason to go against their judgement at this point. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[jmac70]

Wright and fly has not let us down yet. No reason to go against their judgement at this point. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Exactly right Jen. It’s fine for us arm chair experts to have an opinion but we need to respect the knowledge of our footy department.

They know exactly what our team needs and what McStay is capable of providing.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

The de Goey situation makes things a lot murkier. If (I pray this doesn't happen) JDG leaves as an RFA and we get McStay as a FA, we will get net compo for our loss, which would be minimal.

So we would end up with an older, objectively far lesser player, plus a few hundred grand of cap relief and something like a 3rd round draft pick. That would be no bueno.

If DeGoey leaves, there is no way we can get McStay. That would be an effective trade one for the other. As much as I'd love to believe in the people paid to make the decisions, they do that and they need to lose their jobs.

 

[riddick78]

Wright and fly has not let us down yet. No reason to go against their judgement at this point. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Exactly right Jen. It’s fine for us arm chair experts to have an opinion but we need to respect the knowledge of our footy department.

They know exactly what our team needs and what McStay is capable of providing.

Spot on, my opinion on McStay is kinda irrelevant, unless Fly and Wright wanna give this middle aged couch coach a call to give them my "professional" opinion.

 

[sideswipe]

Agreed but I don't have any information on how the TPP changed from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 onwards.

The TPP increased by 38% from 2020 to 2021 to regain Covid cutbacks but this is not realistic to forcast future years.

It has historically run at around a 2%p.a. increase over the duration of a CBA. However the big kicker is what will be next year's Year 1 number of the CBA. So like I say, comparing a 2023 $600k against 2021 numbers is pretty flawed.

 

[Bussie]

Wright and fly has not let us down yet. No reason to go against their judgement at this point. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

I'm not entirely going to trust a coach and a GM who haven't been at the club for less than a year and two years respectively.
We've seen what blindly following the leader has done to the state for the last few years.
McStay isn't needed. As for getting him and turning him into a defender, why? Poach a defender, if you try him out of his preferred position, you'll just end up destroying his confidence and we'll end up with Dawes MkII.
And, if you want him as a defender, then maybe it's because you know he's not that powerful as a forward.
Just because he's over 195cm, doesn't mean we have to drag him here.

 

[Couch Coach]

I'm not entirely going to trust a coach and a GM who haven't been at the club for less than a year and two years respectively.
We've seen what blindly following the leader has done to the state for the last few years.
McStay isn't needed. As for getting him and turning him into a defender, why? Poach a defender, if you try him out of his preferred position, you'll just end up destroying his confidence and we'll end up with Dawes MkII.
And, if you want him as a defender, then maybe it's because you know he's not that powerful as a forward.
Just because he's over 195cm, doesn't mean we have to drag him here.

McStay was drafted as a defender FYI

2013 draft prospect: Daniel McStay

An athletic, tall defender who provides good counter-attack

www.afl.com.au

"Athletic, tall defender with competitive nature. Has the ability to shut down opposition forwards while providing good counter-attack. Hits targets on his preferred left foot. Can also play as a lead-up forward with good effect due to his strong marking and versatility."

2013 Draft Profile: Daniel McStay

Daniel McStay (Eastern Ranges) Height: 193 cm Weight: 83 kg Position: Defender/Midfielder Player comparison: Tyson Goldsack (Better disposal) Strengths: Athleticism, Disposal, Versatility Weaknesses: Strength Daniel McStay is a valuable prospect in the 2013 National Draft because unlike many...

central.rookieme.com

 

[jmac70]

I'm not entirely going to trust a coach and a GM who haven't been at the club for less than a year and two years respectively.
We've seen what blindly following the leader has done to the state for the last few years.
McStay isn't needed. As for getting him and turning him into a defender, why? Poach a defender, if you try him out of his preferred position, you'll just end up destroying his confidence and we'll end up with Dawes MkII.
And, if you want him as a defender, then maybe it's because you know he's not that powerful as a forward.
Just because he's over 195cm, doesn't mean we have to drag him here.

You do realise these blokes have some handy experience prior coming to Collingwood?

 

[gouki88]

You do realise these blokes have some handy experience prior coming to Collingwood?

Just a few flags between em

 

[frizzle]

I'm really not a fan of McStay in our forward line. As a defender then maybe it makes sense if we are angling for Brisbane's first round pick in some sort of deal. They need to get rid of it when drafting Ashcoft & I'm sure our 3 3rd rounders will come in handy. My guess is we are trying to help them with FA compo somehow.

 

[KinderSmock]

Sorry let me clarify, poor wording on my behalf, (from what i've read) the extra money was the deciding factor. I'm not faulting him for the contract we offered him, i would take it, but there's also extra baggage that comes with playing for CFC, he'll be under constant scrutiny from fans and media.

I think most players are aware of this. Lipinski chose Collingwood because of it. At Collingwood, even in a bad year, you'll still have the attention of a lot of fans. Membership stats are iffy but supporters of Collingwood are very common and if you don't support the Pies, you'd be able to name at least three players. An average fan wouldn't be able to do that with every club.

 

[Apex36]

I'm really not a fan of McStay in our forward line. As a defender then maybe it makes sense if we are angling for Brisbane's first round pick in some sort of deal. They need to get rid of it when drafting Ashcoft & I'm sure our 3 3rd rounders will come in handy. My guess is we are trying to help them with FA compo somehow.

I hope this is the play. It would certainly make things more palatable.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Early days.

I have much more confidence in Wright, than Ned Guy, in making the correct decisions for the club.

The duration and $ are pure media speculation at this point.

Duration: Reported that Brisbane started at 4 years and had to bump it to 5 to compete with other offers.
$: Reported that Brisbane started at $500k p.a. and the media have guessed that others are offering more. Pure speculation.
Other #1: Reported that he and his entire family are Collingwood supporters. Does club supported equal a reduction in duration or $?
Other #2: Are there family considerations that result in a preference for a Victorian move.
Other #3: Former coach Leppa now at Collingwood.

The risk of not substantially overpaying relative to the Lions in this situation is that if they want him or think he’s worth more than the available FA compo, then they can match and force a trade.

 

[Mollythedolly]

It's not that hard to understand and I don't appreciate the jibe.

Treloar's contract is say 5 years @ $800K.
If we pay $300k per year the bulldogs only need to pay $500K pa.
If we change our payments to front ended then the bulldogs have to pay $800k pa in the later years.
Sure they save money under the cap in the early years but suddenly they have a $300K shortfall in their future payments. A shortfall when they are trying to re-sign English, Smith, etc.

You got a like for the creative thinking but pretty sure Doggies TPP would be unimpacted by us paying out Treloar early if we had the cap space.

I’d hope we look to maximize those opportunities as they arise, shifting some of Grundy’s salary to the front end another similar use of spare TPP.

 

[whiskeytown]

If DeGoey leaves, there is no way we can get McStay. That would be an effective trade one for the other. As much as I'd love to believe in the people paid to make the decisions, they do that and they need to lose their jobs.

Not true.

1) They can bring in McStay and organise a trade for RFA De Goey still (albeit at lower value) in exchange for not matching the other clubs offer

2) they can technically still trade McStay in… which then wouldn’t hurt De Goey compo. That situation probably requires the lions having a free agency target too

3) Even if Mcstay arrival cancelled out De Goey compo… subsequent arranged swaps of draft picks (you’ll scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours) between clubs might still work in Collingwood’s favour

Wright is a smart operator. Won’t be outwitted or shoehorned like Guy

 

[Apex36]

He would be about the 6th highest paid player at the club.

I am assuming Pendlebury, Grundy, Moore, Sidebottom and Adams are top 5.
Next 7 - De Goey, Crisp, Maynard, Elliot, WHE, Howe and Roughead.
Next 5 - Mihocek, Quaynor, JDaicos, Lipinski and Cameron.

If you think that Crisp, Maynard JDG and Howe are on $600k or less you should probably take some time to re-assess.

 

[sideswipe]

The risk of not substantially overpaying relative to the Lions in this situation is that if they want him or think he’s worth more than the available FA compo, then they can match and force a trade.

No. They can’t.


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[soreplums]

Carlton will have to have some B tier players pushed out. Dr Koning is more likely but might take less to stay. Let's not forget less for him would be still 4 times the average wage. I don't think we need TDK. Think they will push players like Dow, Newman, Kennedy, Silvagni if push comes to shove.

Kennedy just re-signed And is having a career best season. He won’t be pushed out. Newman also important to them,

 

[Apex36]

The risk of not substantially overpaying relative to the Lions in this situation is that if they want him or think he’s worth more than the available FA compo, then they can match and force a trade.

Nope.

 

[Forethought]

It has historically run at around a 2%p.a. increase over the duration of a CBA. However the big kicker is what will be next year's Year 1 number of the CBA. So like I say, comparing a 2023 $600k against 2021 numbers is pretty flawed.

I have it on very good authority that the next CBA will be less than current. This by way of having 5 less players on each list at the AFL average Circa $365k . Estimated TPP could be $1.2-1.3m less.

The AFL coaches and presidents have lobbied the AFL to reduce player lists by 5 players per team.

The reason for this is they understand that the Soft cap can’t increase back to the $9.7m that they would like it to be. The reason for this is the clubs can’t afford the extra $3m ( $54m for the league) when historically less than 6 teams average a profit each year.

Also the AFL guarantees 10 AFL clubs longterm loans ( happened during COVID ) with the NAB bank to ensure they aren’t insolvent.

AFL coaches say the majority of the soft cap is used on the bottom 10 players. Removing 5 of them will allow the soft cap to be raised to $7m and be enough to look after the support needed for 37 players.

A draft pool of players will be allowed through the year to be drawn on for clubs with longterm injuries.

 

[soreplums]

As much as I like the idea of trading for Brisbane’s first, I’m not sure our three third rounders alone is enough for them to secure Ashcroft alone. We’ll need to sweeten the offer of a Future pick as well- particularly when other clubs have better draft capital than what we do.
however, adding McStay compo might be enough to get them over the line.

otherwise they might as well trade their current first rounder to Melbourne for their F1.