List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion

[Rusty Beam]

Hearing Cal Twomey talk about Jacob Van Rooyen in AFL exchange saying he was injured and illness in his draft year and would have gone higher than pick 19 and is unlucky not to have debuted this year. If Grundy does go to the Dees we should get a first rounder and JVN. He's more of a competitor than Weideman.

No chance Dees are going to give up JVR given their poor developing key position stocks.

Especially not in addition to a first rounder.

 

[jimmy35]

This talk on Mitchell legit? I’m torn with this, he is an A grade extractor which would be huge at Centre bounces for us but he’s such an annoying little prick to watch play. Be hard work barracking for him in a Pies jumper.
Also warming to the McStay arrival. Checkers starting to lag badly and McStay could be that option moving forward.

 

[loki04]

Matthew Jefferson and Isaac Keeler are looking to be late first early second. Both great above head and really athletic

Yeah and imo I'd select Tom Scully as later selection and just see how he develops. Sometimes these perceived flaws go away and the players become dominant.

Hell Ben Brown won a Coleman and he was similarly not rated as a junior going at pick 47 in his draft year.

Sometimes recruiters especially with talls just completely read the tea leaves wrong.

 

[loki04]

Melbourne is definitely the better outcome for us. Geelong have ruled themselves out by all reports, but have a lot of other plays such as Hopper going on. Their ability to provide with a reasonable trade would be difficult as you'd assume Hopper would be involved with their First Rounder.

We really need Melbourne to land a huge haul from Freo for Jackson and I think they deserve it. A previous pick 3, with a huge $$ offer Freo that's not really seen for someone of his age. He's not a dominant ruck as yet, but considering what he's doing for his age I think it's clear how good this kid is going to be. I think he's 2 first round picks minimum plus some. While I don't think Grundy's market value is that of Jackson's, I think a first round pick plus something is around the mark, but hugely dependent on the financial negotiations.

I was referring to him picking Melbourne over GWS or Port. 1 of the 5 teams he's met with.

There was also talk Essendon are sniffing.

 

[Juan Ide]

Just do what Geelong do and offer him a great personal sponsor deal with club links outside the cap.

They are the new Visy/Carlton.
I also read they are doing a farming scam with some players, helping them acquire land, cutting tax, and buying cattle for cheap and selling back to the same breeders once fattened for a nice margin..

Yup. The FC in Geelong FC stands for Frank Costa, I reckon!

 

[AmericanMustard]

This talk on Mitchell legit? I’m torn with this, he is an A grade extractor which would be huge at Centre bounces for us but he’s such an annoying little prick to watch play. Be hard work barracking for him in a Pies jumper.
Also warming to the McStay arrival. Checkers starting to lag badly and McStay could be that option moving forward.

I’ve come round on the Mitchell link personally. Taylor Adams has average 15 games a year the last 4 years (including finals) with only two times in his career has he reached more than 20. I can’t see it getting better at his age..

We need inside help if they think we’re win now, Tom Mitchell on the other hand has ticked over 20, 5 of the last 7 years.

Sure, we’ll extend him for 2 years I’d say if it doesn’t work it’s only 3 years on the list. Won’t cost much in a trade or contract, relatively low risk while we still have Pendles, sidey etc still playing

 

[NMBB]

I was referring to him picking Melbourne over GWS or Port. 1 of the 5 teams he's met with.
There was also talk Essendon are sniffing.

Really?

 

[satanshoof101]

Yeah and imo I'd select Tom Scully as later selection and just see how he develops. Sometimes these perceived flaws go away and the players become dominant.

Hell Ben Brown won a Coleman and he was similarly not rated as a junior going at pick 47 in his draft year.

Sometimes recruiters especially with talls just completely read the tea leaves wrong.

I saw Lemmey playing in the backline in the SANFL

 

[tranquilli lace]

still having flashbacks from when we recruited his dad, 600k a year and played 6 games for us before we shipped him off to Carlton
no thanks

Sounds like a well-reasoned argument not to bring a contested ball & clearance-winning Brownlow Medalist in.

 

[No SPIN]

How does Moneyball apply to Liam Stocker? he's not a hidden gem that nobody valued apart from us. Was an early pick who apparently doesn't work that hard and that's why he was delisted. If he got on base a lot and that's a skill other clubs don't rate and we picked him up on that basis then he'd be a Moneyball pick.

I only watched 10 minutes of below, and I'm convinced he's worth serious consideration. Tough, pacy and a very neat kick both sides.

 

[Apex36]

Hearing Cal Twomey talk about Jacob Van Rooyen in AFL exchange saying he was injured and illness in his draft year and would have gone higher than pick 19 and is unlucky not to have debuted this year. If Grundy does go to the Dees we should get a first rounder and JVN. He's more of a competitor than Weideman.

Yes, because if JVR is that good, Melbourne are totally going to give him up in a trade…

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

If it is in fact true that Mitchell wants to come to Collingwood, I'd be disappointed if we can't get him

 

[KinderSmock]

“Don’t be surprised”: Gerard Healy’s mail on Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

This changes the Grundy trade. If not Melbourne, then will Geelong target him?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

“Don’t be surprised”: Gerard Healy’s mail on Luke Jackson

This changes the Grundy trade. If not Melbourne, then will Geelong target him?

Sounds like an ex-Melbourne player just putting nothing into the ether to generate some talk hoping he stays

"Don't be surprised"

Like...lol

 

[Quicky]

We’re keeping DeGoey now on big dollars and we’ve committed pretty big money to McStay too. Plus Mitchell apparently coming in, also presumably on decent coin. Plus there’s a Daicos or two in need of a contract upgrade. We now have a surplus of ruck/forward options - Cameron, Cox, Krueger, McStay, McMahon - keeping Grundy just isn’t an option. So yes, we are again forced sellers with no leverage and everyone in the recruiting space would know it. Brace yourself for disappointment.


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I think you're badly misreading the situation.

 

[Harry O]

“Don’t be surprised”: Gerard Healy’s mail on Luke Jackson

This changes the Grundy trade. If not Melbourne, then will Geelong target him?

If Jackson stays at Dees, I would not be surprised if Grundy stays a Pie

 

[LuckyLee]

I think you're badly misreading the situation.

I genuinely hope you’re right.

I’d love to know what negotiating power you think we have. For instance, if Dees are the only suitor and say to us, “We’ll give you a second rounder and you pay $250K of his salary, take it or leave it.” then what do you see us doing?

As I see it, we can’t take Grundy back and fit his wage in on top of the uplifted DeGoey contract and expected arrivals of McStay, Mitchell, Bobby Hill, etc. So how would it play out?


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[Quicky]

I genuinely hope you’re right.

I’d love to know what negotiating power you think we have. For instance, if Dees are the only suitor and say to us, “We’ll give you a second rounder and you pay $250K of his salary, take it or leave it.” then what do you see us doing?

As I see it, we can’t take Grundy back and fit his wage in on top of the uplifted DeGoey contract and expected arrivals of McStay, Mitchell, Bobby Hill, etc. So how would it play out?


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Our negotiating power is that Grundy is contracted and we can keep him if we choose. De Goey is on substantially the same as he is currently on (per reports). There is 650k coming in from a salary cap increase. Rougheads wage is off the books. WHE remains uncontracted and that offers us salary flexibility. Hill and Frampton are base wage (or close to it) situations. Mitchell has 1 yr on his deal left which can get smoothed out with a 3 yr deal. We can walk away from any of those trades if we choose to. We don't have to do anything we don't want.

 

[No SPIN]

Sounds like an ex-Melbourne player just putting nothing into the ether to generate some talk hoping he stays

"Don't be surprised"

Like...lol

Gary Lyon and Nathan Jones also Ex- Demons, are reporting the same.
There must be substance to the rumour.

 

[brysie]

As an outside observer, the upcoming trade period for us appears to be increasingly centred around Jackson and Grundy's respective movements. What Jackson decides will almost certainly have flow-on effects for what we decide to do with Grundy and from that, presumably some of our other players or moves (i.e. Henry, Mitchell).

Some points relevant to each:

Pies: Grundy is an AA ruckman, on a large contract (both in quantum and length) who hasn't played in a season where we've been successful in his absence. Whether he is capable of fitting into our system is a wait and see, however the proof that we can be successful without him exists.

Melbourne: The difference between Melbourne's first half of the season and the second half is chalk and cheese. Their success is built on a base of midfield and defence, with these two areas papering over some very large cracks in their forward line. They've attempted to mitigate this by playing Gawn forward more, however he simply doesn't have the foot or hand skills to be an effective forward - similarly, Jackson has been ineffective as a second forward this season, compounding their issues.

Personally, I don't understand Melbourne's need for Grundy, when both are likely to be required to play in tandem in the ruck and both seem more effective and comfortable when playing significant minutes as the sole ruck. I don't see Grundy moving to Melbourne as necessarily strengthening them, which probably reflects a more general and philosophical view I have about the overall value of rucks.

If Grundy is to leave, and if it can't be interstate to someone like one of the SA clubs (or GWS, GC), then I personally don't see Melbourne as the worst option.

 

[Crazy Tails]

If Jackson stays at Dees, I would not be surprised if Grundy stays a Pie

He possibly also stays if he is willing to take a decent haircut on his contracted salary.

Should I be reading anything into the fact Pendles was wearing Grundy's #4 jumper at training the other day?

 

[gouki88]

“Don’t be surprised”: Gerard Healy’s mail on Luke Jackson

This changes the Grundy trade. If not Melbourne, then will Geelong target him?

If Jackson stays then I think Grundy would stay too. He can veto any trade, Geelong will be spending all their draft capital in the pursuit of Hopper, and he doesn't want to move interstate

 

[biggiemediums]

He possibly also stays if he is willing to take a decent haircut on his contracted salary.

Should I be reading anything into the fact Pendles was wearing Grundy's #4 jumper at training the other day?

Pendles disguising himself as Grundy so he can get a bit of that Grundy red panty $$.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

Just do what Geelong do and offer him a great personal sponsor deal with club links outside the cap.

They are the new Visy/Carlton.
I also read they are doing a farming scam with some players, helping them acquire land, cutting tax, and buying cattle for cheap and selling back to the same breeders once fattened for a nice margin..

Geelong is the team I want least to win the flag this year

F*cking bovine shufflers

 

[Fruit]

Moneyball used statistical analysis to overcome inherent bias and subjectivity by baseball decision makers. Specifically it identified that on-base and slugging percentage were better indicators of offensive success than batting average, stolen bases or whether the player looked the part. This allowed the first clubs to realise this to target players with these characteristics at far under market value. I'm not even sure that kind of analysis is possible in the AFL given the differences with Baseball, where Baseball is far more controlled, AFL more chaotic

I think Moneyball is the most misused term in this thread. If it's used to describe a fringe player, with poor stats and no form (McCartin prior to this season, Hill) it's being misused. It kinda fits if it's a player with strong stats being overlooked for reasons like age, they're slow, they play for a poor team (Mitchell); but even with that example you need to assume some of the stats are overlooked keys to success and that might be stretching it.

I think McStay fits into the measuring (not the salary offer though). He averages over 6 marks a game despite playing a lot of football besides Daniher, McCarthy, Rayner and Hipwood who are all targets inside 50. I’m starting to think that if he is used more as a target inside 50 which will happen at the Pies his stats could increase more than I was originally thinking.
I still don’t like the monetary offer though