Collingwood's record in close games - is it unprecedented?

[PerthBoy86]

I think since their streak in the second half of the 2022 season they've only lost won game decided by a goal or less, I believe. The 2022 prelim vs Sydney. I think thats like 12 or the last 13 or something (provide exact stats if you have them) or something under McRae. Early on I did give McRae credit where it was due - they knew how to win - but increasingly its obvious other factors are at play. Without focusing just in umpiring, thought it might be interesting to have a discussion on why they maintain their ridiculous record. How much do you feel it's gamesmanship, coaching in clutch moments? Umpiring is one factor, but how are players like Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliott, DeGoey, Hill, even the likes of McCreery, WHE, Crisp, and of course the Daicos bros...basically most of them...so clutch in these moments? Even if we take umpiring out of it luck always seems to go their way. It almost feels like Fly McRae made a deal with a devil lol.

And on that, is there any similar streak even remotely close to this? Is this statistical anomaly cause for suspicion/scrutiny or admiration/disbelief (maybe a combo of the two).

 

[Chief]

I was pretty sure these close games would catch up with them in a reversion to the mean, but they keep doing it.

 

[Reg Grundy35]

I think since their streak in the second half of the 2022 season they've only lost won game decided by a goal or less, I believe. The 2022 prelim vs Sydney. I think thats like 12 or the last 13 or something (provide exact stats if you have them) or something under McRae. Early on I did give McRae credit where it was due - they knew how to win - but increasingly its obvious other factors are at play. Without focusing just in umpiring, thought it might be interesting to have a discussion on why they maintain their ridiculous record. How much do you feel it's gamesmanship, coaching in clutch moments? Umpiring is one factor, but how are players like Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliott, DeGoey, Hill, even the likes of McCreery, WHE, Crisp, and of course the Daicos bros...basically most of them...so clutch in these moments? Even if we take umpiring out of it luck always seems to go their way. It almost feels like Fly McRae made a deal with a devil lol.

And on that, is there any similar streak even remotely close to this? Is this statistical anomaly cause for suspicion/scrutiny or admiration/disbelief (maybe a combo of the two).

the more they do it, the better they get at it. when the time comes to hold the line there is no better board of directors than Sidebottom, Pendles, Howe and Moore. Throw in the genius of Naicos to take ownership of the footy from any stoppage and there's your answer. They will be even better for yesterday's masterpiece.

 

[caloschwaby]

 

[Venkman]

Nah, it's just umpiring. People like to talk about complicated stuff like training and strategy but it's basically just non calls that are made by umpires in the final moments.

 

[BigVic]

It began in Round 11, 2022 vs Carlton on a Sunday. Amazing to think it's still going for 2 years

 

[The Fantom]

It began in Round 11, 2022 vs Carlton on a Sunday. Amazing to think it's still going for 2 years

And I kept thinking it wasn’t sustainable but here you are today doing it again.

My feelings always been that once you start losing a few close ones the “aura” will disappear and the ledger in close games will become more even. I’m still waiting.

 

[Del165198]

Wake up babe, new perthboy thread just dropped

 

[caloschwaby]

Nah, it's just umpiring. People like to talk about complicated stuff like training and strategy but it's basically just non calls that are made by umpires in the final moments.

Can confirm, was at the AGM last year and Craig Kelly said just that

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

WINS
[1]. Round 11 2022 (Collingwood vs Carlton) = +4
[2]. Round 12 2022 (Hawthorn vs Collingwood) = +4
[3]. Round 16 2022 (Gold Coast vs Collingwood) = +5
[4]. Round 17 2022 (Collingwood vs North Melbourne) = +7
[5]. Round 18 2022 (Adelaide vs Collingwood) = +5
[6]. Round 19 2022 (Collingwood vs Essendon) = +4
[7]. Round 20 2022 (Collingwood vs Port Adelaide) = +6
[8]. Round 21 2022 (Melbourne vs Collingwood) = +7
[9]. Round 23 2022 (Carlton vs Collingwood) = +1
[10]. Round 5 2023 (Collingwood vs St Kilda) = +6
[11]. Round 7 2023 (Adelaide vs Collingwood) = +1
[12]. Round 15 2023 (Collingwood vs Adelaide) = +2
[13]. Round 19 2023 (Port Adelaide vs Collingwood) = +2
[14]. Round 22 2023 (Collingwood vs Geelong) = +8
[15]. Qualifying Final 2023 (Collingwood vs Melbourne) = +7
[16]. Preliminary Final 2023 (Collingwood vs GWS) = +1
[17]. Grand Final 2023 (Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions) = +4
[18]. Round 4 2024 (Collingwood vs Hawthorn) = +5
[19]. Round 8 2024 (Carlton vs Collingwood) = +6
[20]. Round 10 2024 (Collingwood vs Adelaide) = +4
[21]. Round 14 2024 (North Melbourne vs Collingwood) = +1

DRAWS
[1]. Round 7 2024 (Essendon vs Collingwood) = 0
[2]. Round 11 2024 (Fremantle vs Collingwood) = 0

LOSSES
[1]. Round 5 2022 (Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood) = -7
[2]. Qualifying Final 2022 (Geelong vs Collingwood) = -6
[3]. Preliminary Final 2022 (Sydney vs Collingwood) = -1
[4]. Round 13 2023 (Melbourne vs Collingwood) = -4

 

[danster168]

Most of it is luck when it's that close. Collingwood are a team that never give up and have that inner belief but anything under a goal is pure luck. They've been on the end of some very fortunate umpiring decisions/non-decisions in recent years. Let's say the umpire calls a BS double 50m in the last 30s of all of the games they won by under 6 points, all of a sudden that's a extra 15 losses taken from the Wins column.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Media influence.
Geelong had a streak of games where they came back in the 2000s. Media goes on about it. And even though the players say they don't pay attention when asked, they do. They take the foot off. It happens at all levels, when there's chat, they expect it

 

[Tiger2709]

Is it a good or bad thing, obviously its good to keep winning those close games but not sure you want every game being on the line down to the last minute, if your luck changes you can go from top 4 to bottom 8 pretty fast.

 

[Robroy22]

The great Melbourne teams of the 50's had the same "aura"....so too Tommy Hafey's Tigers in the late 60's early 70's. They just expect to come back and they expect to run over the top of teams.

Call it luck all you like...but just like the Hawks of the 80's and Brisbane of the 2000's, these Pies just expect to get the job done....somehow. They expect to win.

 

[Sector 7G]

Most of it is luck when it's that close. Collingwood are a team that never give up and have that inner belief but anything under a goal is pure luck. They've been on the end of some very fortunate umpiring decisions/non-decisions in recent years. Let's say the umpire calls a BS double 50m in the last 30s of all of the games they won by under 6 points, all of a sudden that's a extra 15 losses taken from the Wins column.

Initial the Pies were playing the games out really well not letting their opposition have a chance to win, this year they have been very lucky with opponents missing very gettable shots at goal to win the games. Hawks, Dons, Freo and North had straightforward shots to win.

 

[Robroy22]

Initial the Pies were playing the games out really well not letting their opposition have a chance to win, this year they have been very lucky with opponents missing very gettable shots at goal to win the games. Hawks, Dons, Freo and North had straightforward shots to win.

V Hawks we had 22 shots to 17
Dons it was 25 shots a piece but Mihocek missed a gimme before the last Essendon opportunity
Freo we had 25 shots to 20 (and they got a goal from the "not handing the ball directly to the umpire" situation)
and North we had 29 shots to 23 but apparently THEY had the last shot so they deserved to win???

It's NOT luck....its workrate.

 

[Sector 7G]

V Hawks we had 22 shots to 17
Dons it was 25 shots a piece but Mihocek missed a gimme before the last Essendon opportunity
Freo we had 25 shots to 20 (and they got a goal from the "not handing the ball directly to the umpire" situation)
and North we had 29 shots to 23 but apparently THEY had the last shot so they deserved to win???

It's NOT luck....its workrate.

Good to know it was Collingwood workrate which caused Fisher to miss. You missed the point of my post which was there was no luck involved in Pies close wins a year ago because they played them out and prevented teams from getting those chances. Recently Collingwood have been in well deserved winning positions and have been lucky not to lose in the last minute.

 

[Robroy22]

Good to know it was Collingwood workrate which caused Fisher to miss. You missed the point of my post which was there was no luck involved in Pies close wins a year ago because they played them out and prevented teams from getting those chances. Recently Collingwood have been in well deserved winning positions and have been lucky not to lose in the last minute.

I think you'll find that those "lucky" wins were when 7-8 of the best 23 weren't available. Maybe we just looked more "in control" to you because of the players attempting to win. I know lots of Pies people breathe a lot easier when number 10 is out amongst the mayhem of a close finish...but the fact is, the juniors have been doing a great job of winning the tight ones as well.

 

[nahnah]

Initial the Pies were playing the games out really well not letting their opposition have a chance to win, this year they have been very lucky with opponents missing very gettable shots at goal to win the games. Hawks, Dons, Freo and North had straightforward shots to win.

Agree with you, this year has been a lot more lucky. Our newer players are not as good at shutting the game down properly, Sullivan blew it vs Freo in the last minute and HH almost blew it vs North with the ball coming out to fisher instead of getting it to boundary side

 

[Cleansweep17]

Yes.

I have no idea how they lost the 2022 QF

 

[adammania9]

Yes.

I have no idea how they lost the 2022 QF

There's a reason

 

[SC_Power]

Media influence.
Geelong had a streak of games where they came back in the 2000s. Media goes on about it. And even though the players say they don't pay attention when asked, they do. They take the foot off. It happens at all levels, when there's chat, they expect it

Agreed, They're not the only team to have winning streaks in close games, but being Melb based and winning a flag does highlight it.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Their last 5 - umpire assisted in 3 of them:

- grand final advantage call. Was a 50/50 call to be fair

- Adelaide running too far. Laughable call that is rarely paid at all, let alone in last minute in 1 score game

- North multiple calls favouring Collingwood and the worst the non 50m penalty, possibly ever. Naicos seems to be immune from penalty

 

[adammania9]

Their last 5 - umpire assisted in 3 of them:

- grand final advantage call. Was a 50/50 call to be fair

- Adelaide running too far. Laughable call that is rarely paid at all, let alone in last minute in 1 score game

- North multiple calls favouring Collingwood and the worst the non 50m penalty, possibly ever. Naicos seems to be immune from penalty

Genuinely comical calls. You won't find one Lions fan who reckons they were hard done by that day.

Footy fans hate the Pies so much they want the rules bent to give them a chance to lose close ones.