Collingwood's record in close games - is it unprecedented?

[beez]

I still firmly believe it is primarily luck and no result nor any one person will convince me otherwise.

Zac Fisher

16

Zac Fisher

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.0

5star

MG

384.0

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

384.0

5star

D

12.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

3.0

5star

missing by a whisker only reinforces my view.

 

[beez]

Agree with you, this year has been a lot more lucky. Our newer players are not as good at shutting the game down properly, Sullivan blew it vs Freo in the last minute and HH almost blew it vs North with the ball coming out to fisher instead of getting it to boundary side

It has nothing to do with younger players.

There are myriad instances in '22 and '23 where players of any experience made error after error after error; just like in every game.

I mean, in the grand final, it was Nick Daicos' missed tackle on Berry that lead to Cameron's brilliant goal with five minutes to go. But no one talks about the weak attempt at the tackle because Collingwood won. Even the last minute of the grand final there were many mistakes in terms of ball retention from Collingwood players, but they're not highlighted because Collingwood won.

Because Collingwood keep winning the close ones, David King et al. don't go through all their mistakes (positional or skill error). Because that is how analysis works.

 

[nahnah]

It has nothing to do with younger players.

There are myriad instances in '22 and '23 where players of any experience made error after error after error; just like in every game.

I mean, in the grand final, it was Nick Daicos' missed tackle on Berry that lead to Cameron's brilliant goal with five minutes to go. But no one talks about the weak attempt at the tackle because Collingwood won. Even the last minute of the grand final there were many mistakes in terms of ball retention from Collingwood players, but they're not highlighted because Collingwood won.

Because Collingwood keep winning the close ones, David King et al. don't go through all their mistakes (positional or skill error). Because that is how analysis works.

I’m a bit confused with your point of view, I don’t see how Pies got lucky because Daicos missed a tackle with 5 mins left and there was still time for three goals to be kicked in the game, I’m talking about errors that end up with the game result being on the other teams boot and the pies have no way to reply if they kick truly like the recent Freo and north games, they kick those goals there is nothing pies can do to win the game hence it’s effectively down to pure luck

 

[kaiserchief13]

Genuinely comical calls. You won't find one Lions fan who reckons they were hard done by that day.

Footy fans hate the Pies so much they want the rules bent to give them a chance to lose close ones.

There is no way Brisbane players could hear the umpire blow the whistle for a free kick. Of course it was a coin flip if the umpire pays advantage or not. Who knows what may have happened after that, but Collingwood did get an advantageous call there.

The Rankine too far was a disgraceful call. I think it was a Bulldogs player on the weekend ran from the goal square in a kickout to about the 35-40m mark before he kicked without bouncing the ball and wasn't called for too far.

 

[kaiserchief13]

I still firmly believe it is primarily luck and no result nor any one person will convince me otherwise.

Zac Fisher missing by a whisker only reinforces my view.

Averaging out their unlucky grand final losses, mainly in the regular season

 

[Dazb86]

Most of it is luck when it's that close. Collingwood are a team that never give up and have that inner belief but anything under a goal is pure luck. They've been on the end of some very fortunate umpiring decisions/non-decisions in recent years. Let's say the umpire calls a BS double 50m in the last 30s of all of the games they won by under 6 points, all of a sudden that's a extra 15 losses taken from the Wins column.

I wonder if they'd even make the expected score top 8?

 

[beez]

I’m a bit confused with your point of view, I don’t see how Pies got lucky because Daicos missed a tackle with 5 mins left and there was still time for three goals to be kicked in the game, I’m talking about errors that end up with the game result being on the other teams boot and the pies have no way to reply if they kick truly like the recent Freo and north games, they kick those goals there is nothing pies can do to win the game hence it’s effectively down to pure luck

Yes, arguably a team with less experience will have a harder time shutting a game down both from experience and from endurance. You could in a some small way make that case this season with Collingwood.

However, your argument is based around the fact that we were better at shutting games down and not allowing the opposition chances to score in previous seasons. I believe your argument is wrong.

With the caveat what we were able to shut games down - the '23 QF and PF as classic examples - there are myriad examples in the close games in '22 and '23 where the opposition had chances to score in the last couple of minutes, either through their good play, our mistakes or poor positioning. We weren't able to "shut the opposition down", we just got lucky through their missed opportunities.

Primary luck
Secondary umpiring
Tertiary experience/coaching/shutting teams down

Although I suspect most in the footballing community with disagree with me.

 

[nahnah]

Yes, arguably a team with less experience will have a harder time shutting a game down both from experience and from endurance. You could in a some small way make that case this season with Collingwood.

However, your argument is based around the fact that we were better at shutting games down and not allowing the opposition chances to score in previous seasons. I believe your argument is wrong.

With the caveat what we were able to shut games down - the '23 QF and PF as classic examples - there are myriad examples in the close games in '22 and '23 where the opposition had chances to score in the last couple of minutes, either through their good play, our mistakes or poor positioning. We weren't able to "shut the opposition down", we just got lucky through their missed opportunities.

Primary luck
Secondary umpiring
Tertiary experience/coaching/shutting teams down

Although I suspect most in the footballing community with disagree with me.

You are entitled to you opinion as am I. I actually don’t like the way we ‘shut down’ the game, it just invites a shift in momentum, we effectively threw away Anzac Day and the Freo games due to it. The ‘23 Prelim was ridiculous to effectively choose to defend a 1pt lead for 6 minutes and even more ridiculous it worked out

 

[Monco Matt]

Balls of steel, ice in the veins, guts & determination, hearts the size of Phar Lap's, never say die attitude and maybe just a sprinkle of good fortune. We are pure showtime!! The AFL would be very very boring without the Mighty Pies!!

 

[adammania9]

There is no way Brisbane players could hear the umpire blow the whistle for a free kick. Of course it was a coin flip if the umpire pays advantage or not. Who knows what may have happened after that, but Collingwood did get an advantageous call there.

The Rankine too far was a disgraceful call. I think it was a Bulldogs player on the weekend ran from the goal square in a kickout to about the 35-40m mark before he kicked without bouncing the ball and wasn't called for too far.

There was a lot of football player before the last minute of the grand final. Watch it and tell me Brisbane were unlucky.

The second paragraph you have highlighted an umpiring error from a completely different game. What's your point? You must bounce the ball every 15m. Rankine did not run 17 or 18 metres which is borderline, he ran 24.2 metres. Give me a spell.

 

[Cleansweep17]

There's a reason

Apologies for the troll.

That’s actually f’ing disgusting umpiring in the Cats favour.

 

[jakson68]

I still firmly believe it is primarily luck and no result nor any one person will convince me otherwise.

Zac Fisher missing by a whisker only reinforces my view.

A great golfer was once questioned that he got lucky out on the course, after a great round.
His answer “It’s strange, the more I practice, the luckier I seem to get “

We practice scenarios more than other, so this may be a reason, we seem luckier in these scenarios than others.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Good to know it was Collingwood workrate which caused Fisher to miss. You missed the point of my post which was there was no luck involved in Pies close wins a year ago because they played them out and prevented teams from getting those chances. Recently Collingwood have been in well deserved winning positions and have been lucky not to lose in the last minute.

I agree. Got shouted down on the Pies board for assessing our season year to date as such though.

There weren’t as many examples where the opposition had legitimate chances to win through 2022 and 2023 in those close finishes.

 

[Gethelred]

I was pretty sure these close games would catch up with them in a reversion to the mean, but they keep doing it.

Ryan Buckland - courtesy of The Roar - wrote this a few years back:

A close game in this sense is a game where the final margin is 12 points or less – selected mostly because it’s possible for a team to slam on two goals in a very short space of time, but also because that seems to be a good consensus figure from when I’ve seen this question asked elsewhere.

Over the long run, almost every team wins between 45 per cent and 55 per cent of their games decided by 12 points or less. There are a couple of exceptions: Hawthorn and Geelong both won 58 per cent of their games that were decided by 12 points or less between 2000 and 2015, while Brisbane won just 41 per cent. The Giants have a poorer percentage (37 per cent), but they’ve only played 11 games with that final margin which isn’t a large enough set that we can draw conclusions.

So it’s a fair assumption that a club will, over its lifetime, win about half of its games decided by 12 points or less. On that basis, a club that won significantly more or less than its share in one particular year would be expected to come back to the pack a little in the following year.

... and his whole schtic on there was mathematically analysing games to see what that data spits out.

They'll regress, eventually.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Well I for one am very much looking forward to seeing how the Swans’ current we’ll-just-let-our-opponents-have-a-bit-of-fun,-until-five-minutes-before-half-time-and-then-we’ll-kick-five-in-as-many-minutes-and-steamroll-them-in-the-second-half game plan measures up against Collingwood’s
even-if-there’s-less-than-a-minute-till-full time,-if-you’re-up-by-less-than-a-goal-then-we-will-win.

But I’m not sure my heart will appreciate it.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Averaging out their unlucky grand final losses, mainly in the regular season

This pretty much, one of the most cursed sporting clubs in the world, can’t think of another club in any sport that botched as many final games, but it’s rare to have single game decider for a league, anyway a bit of luck leaking back their way is fair enough.

 

[Rotayjay]

I find it really annoying, actually. You think you're going to win and then the bastards beat you. They've beaten us by less than a kick four times in two years. It's tortuous.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Yep never seen anything like it before from any club.

 

[Robroy22]

Well I for one am very much looking forward to seeing how the Swans’ current we’ll-just-let-our-opponents-have-a-bit-of-fun,-until-five-minutes-before-half-time-and-then-we’ll-kick-five-in-as-many-minutes-and-steamroll-them-in-the-second-half game plan measures up against Collingwood’s
even-if-there’s-less-than-a-minute-till-full time,-if-you’re-up-by-less-than-a-goal-then-we-will-win.

But I’m not sure my heart will appreciate it.

Me too

 

[Granit1962]

Even with half our first choice players out, the trend continues/ Must be luck.

I recall as a kid watching us lose games - where we had a knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of glory so many times. Was that all down to bad luck. That trend lasted about 50 years. However, in 2022, it changed.

"Success is all about luck" the mantra of losers.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Well I for one am very much looking forward to seeing how the Swans’ current we’ll-just-let-our-opponents-have-a-bit-of-fun,-until-five-minutes-before-half-time-and-then-we’ll-kick-five-in-as-many-minutes-and-steamroll-them-in-the-second-half game plan measures up against Collingwood’s
even-if-there’s-less-than-a-minute-till-full time,-if-you’re-up-by-less-than-a-goal-then-we-will-win.

But I’m not sure my heart will appreciate it.

Won't be surprised if it's a tactic both McRae and Longmire used with their teams. The old rope a dope, counter punch method. Or a racer letting the other racer take the lead until the end for one last burst.

 

[Stax on the mill]

Surprise, surprise, another anti Collingwood troll thread by that avowed Pies hater PerthBoy86, ably supported by a couple of other Pies haters in Danster168 and kaiserchief13. Who would have thought?

 

[PerthBoy86]

Even with half our first choice players out, the trend continues/ Must be luck.

I recall as a kid watching us lose games - where we had a knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of glory so many times. Was that all down to bad luck. That trend lasted about 50 years. However, in 2022, it changed.

"Success is all about luck" the mantra of losers.

I remember I think it was 2019, or was it 2021, when the Pies lost 5 or 6 close games?

 

[PerthBoy86]

Surprise, surprise, another anti Collingwood troll thread by that avowed Pies hater PerthBoy86, ably supported by a couple of other Pies haters in Danster168 and kaiserchief13. Who would have thought?

I think as more teams get on the end of these results you'll go back to being most hated, I guess. But yes, my real disdain/frustration only began recently.

 

[Captivating]

Is it precedential to what?