Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[bomberclifford]

Who wrote that?

Lets do some basic maths. USA stats according to Worldometres is 138,247 deaths so x 19 others need hospitalization = 2,626,693. Given so far cases in US are 3,479,483 I call that BS that deaths and hospitalization has or will at some point in the next 2 weeks, result in a 75.5% hospitalization rate and a hospitalization+ death rate of 79.5%.

I get that the true impact is a lot more than just the mortality rate, some people will have serious heart and lung issues post recovering from covid, but I reckon those other stats were plucked out of thin air for impact affect rather than hard facts.

I get what he is trying to say - the road toll in Oz is a lot more than the 1,200 deaths a year, there is the 30,000 serious and permanent injuries and the 250,000 minor injuries.

If you follow the link you can see who wrote it and where they sourced the stats from.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

If looking for a more high risk demographic I would not know where to start

Police patrol Sydney Krispy Kreme stores as 'nonsensical' promotion attracts huge crowds

NSW Police attend a number of Krispy Kreme stores in Sydney to monitor social distancing after large crowds gathered to collect free doughnuts from a promotion authorities said "defied logic".

www.abc.net.au

“The Krispy Kreme chain ran a giveaway offering a dozen doughnuts free to anyone who had a birthday between mid-March and mid-July, to celebrate the company's 83rd birthday.”

 

[NEGAN]

One lot of 'bad people' are bad because they've been exposed to a highly infectious disease that has killed hundreds of thousands of people around the world, and has the potential to kill thousands of South Australians if controls aren't imposed. The other lot of 'bad people' are bad because they have brown skin.

I don't know why I bothered with this response. I know you know all this already, because I know right-wing 'arguments' on the internet consist pretty much entirely of wilfully misunderstanding things to create false equivalencies.

"are bad because they have brown skin lol".... do you just make shit up or what?
Yah before you go there I ain't white so I can't be racist in your world.

And I forgot every person who crosses over the border ILLIGALLY thats "healthy".... absolutely no drug dealers, no gang members, no cartel, no people smugglers/ human trafficers ever cross....don't get me wrong I am sure there are many decent humans ILLIGALLY crossing the border...but this is another country we're talking about here.

But that's neither here or there, it's funny watching the left being hypocritical as ever. .....

Apologies to the TRUE left out there, I know you see this.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

If you follow the link you can see who wrote it and where they sourced the stats from.

I had clicked on the first link when I made my post. It looks like a simple out of every 100 people to get covid, 80 people who get it are asymptomatic or mild case, 19 will go to hospital and recover and 1 person will die. That's just too simplistic maths.

I get they are trying to explain why its more serious than 1% die from it but its disingenuous as not all 19 of that 100 go to hospital.

Oz hit 8,000 cases on 30 June, before current spike. 104 deaths so a bit more than 1.25% mortality rate, so the 19 people hospitalization per death makes that 1,950 should have gone to hospital.

Peak hospitalization was 458 on 6th April and 7th of April it only was 305. There are no solid figures of daily in and out of hospital but given only 14 people were in hospital on 30 June, my guess is maybe 700 maximum 800 of those 8,000 went to hospital and recovered.

Now it might be accurate for a city like New York, Madrid or Milan where the health care system gets overstressed and some people with more serious than a mild cases don't get some basic treatment at the start and they go from convalescing at home to the hospital quickly, compared to Oz where basic treatment from GP and staying at home did the trick, but we haven't experienced the 80/19/1 ratio in Oz.

 

[pastmyprimus]

I don't know what the individual state split is but wasn't all that time in March, April and May used to turn the national ICU beds capacity from 2,000 to 7,500.

Given Vic is 1/4 the population, doesn't that means that Vic ICU's have gone from 500 to 1,850?

Just came across this article. By the end of this week ICU capacity in Vic will be increased by 840 beds from 460.

With estimates the normal ICU capacity of around 460 beds is pushing above 85 per cent usage, non-critical elective surgery is being postponed and specialist COVID wards are being opened for infected aged patients.

Two hundred and forty extra ICU beds have been activated since last week and a further 600 are being brought online this week, according to a Victorian government spokesperson

ICU capacity more than doubled as Victoria braces for surge

Demand for ventilators and intensive care beds in Victoria has spiked sharply as authorities begin opening specialist COVID-19 wards to meet an expected surge in hospitalisations this week.

www.afr.com

 

[finbarr]

It'sHappening.GIF

SA-Victoria-NSW border dogleg leaves locals in state of confusion amid coronavirus restrictions - ABC News

www.google.com

 

[EskimoPAFC]

You could but even make this stuff up, yet he’s the president!

You won't believe what Donald Trump just said about coronavirus testing

On Monday afternoon, President Donald Trump was asked about his insistence that the only reason that coronavirus cases are spiking across the South and Southwest was an increase in testing. His answer was, uh, something else.

edition.cnn.com

"3) You don't "create" cases by testing. The notion that testing somehow creates cases rather than simply identifying them is truly remarkable."

There is obviously an attempted 'gotcha' in the wording, but Trump's point is very valid. If you have two countries of 100 people each, and each has 10 people with covid... If country one tests 10 people but country two tests 50 people then on average country one will show up with 1 case and country two will show up with 5 cases, and we know the media is dishonest enough to report on country two being out of control whereas country one will barely be mentioned as a result.

In practice is America actually number 1 in testing? No. Not even close... tests per million is listed below:


Clearly Russia is the gold standard in testing, behaviour and treatment (not going to lie I didn't see that coming 6 months ago), and the UK and Spain are also the same or better than the USA in testing... But his point is very valid when you compare the numbers to that in Mexico, Brazil or India. If you were to assume a similar efficiency in test targeting (which obviously you can't but I will just so I can add some numbers)...

If they tested the same amount of people as America:
USA's cases = 3,535,819
India's cases would be 937,487 * (132161/8760) = 14,145,351
Mexico's cases would be 304,435 * (132161/5737) = 7,013,945
Brazil's cases would be 1,926,824 * (132161/21508) = 11,841,170

None of this changes the fact that America's handling of the virus appears to have been pretty bad no matter how you look at it, but CNN is just ****ing awful and I wanted to point that out. They have less credibility than the Betoota Advocate.

If Trump wanted to make it clearer he would say 'when you standardise our total case numbers using our levels of testing, america's covid situation is probably in a better position than several other comparable countries'... but if he put it like that he would a) still be feeding the fake news trolls that will twist whatever he says regardless, and b) be missing a chance to appeal to his base by playing to the myth of 'american exceptionalism'

 

[snozulu]

Andrews-style lockdown not on the cards for NSW

Infections and fears for community transmission might be on the rise in New South Wales, but Premier Gladys Berejiklian has all but ruled out sending her state back into lockdown, saying it’s “no way to live”.

www.news.com.au

Infections might be on the rise, but NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has all but ruled out sending her state back into lockdown.

Infections and fears for community transmission might be on the rise in New South Wales, but Premier Gladys Berejiklian has all but ruled out sending her state back into lockdown, saying it’s “no way to live”.

“What we determined the best course in managing this pandemic is what we call a suppression strategy. Unfortunately what we all have to accept is that as restrictions have [released] and as people start to go back to work and to daily lives, we will see case numbers increase.


The Premier last night said part of the reason NSW couldn’t just revert back to a lockdown every time there’s a new cluster of COVID-19 infections is because it’s unlikely the state will ever achieve elimination, due to the size of the population.

She added it was important NSW residents find a way to “coexist with the virus”.

 

[PowerBaz]

"3) You don't "create" cases by testing. The notion that testing somehow creates cases rather than simply identifying them is truly remarkable."

There is obviously an attempted 'gotcha' in the wording, but Trump's point is very valid. If you have two countries of 100 people each, and each has 10 people with covid... If country one tests 10 people but country two tests 50 people then on average country one will show up with 1 case and country two will show up with 5 cases, and we know the media is dishonest enough to report on country two being out of control whereas country one will barely be mentioned as a result.

In practice is America actually number 1 in testing? No. Not even close... tests per million is listed below:

View attachment 912558
Clearly Russia is the gold standard in testing, behaviour and treatment (not going to lie I didn't see that coming 6 months ago), and the UK and Spain are also the same or better than the USA in testing... But his point is very valid when you compare the numbers to that in Mexico, Brazil or India. If you were to assume a similar efficiency in test targeting (which obviously you can't but I will just so I can add some numbers)...

If they tested the same amount of people as America:
USA's cases = 3,535,819
India's cases would be 937,487 * (132161/8760) = 14,145,351
Mexico's cases would be 304,435 * (132161/5737) = 7,013,945
Brazil's cases would be 1,926,824 * (132161/21508) = 11,841,170

None of this changes the fact that America's handling of the virus appears to have been pretty bad no matter how you look at it, but CNN is just ******* awful and I wanted to point that out. They have less credibility than the Betoota Advocate.

If Trump wanted to make it clearer he would say 'when you standardise our total case numbers using our levels of testing, america's covid situation is probably in a better position than several other comparable countries'... but if he put it like that he would a) still be feeding the fake news trolls that will twist whatever he says regardless, and b) be missing a chance to appeal to his base by playing to the myth of 'american exceptionalism'

Fox News is a real eye opener...

 

[edgie]

Do we trust Russia's numbers? Seems surprising they'd be at the forefront of these sorta things.

Sent from my Nokia 7.2 using Tapatalk

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Fox News is a real eye opener...

lol in terms of journalistic integrity...

Betoota Advocate > Random shit I make up when drunk > CNN > Fox "news"

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Do we trust Russia's numbers? Seems surprising they'd be at the forefront of these sorta things.

Sent from my Nokia 7.2 using Tapatalk

You can't really trust anybody 100% but I don't see a reason to trust them less than anybody else in the top 10? I do suspect something is going on in Russia that we don't quite understand though - as in they have an advantage that fits in the 'unknown unknown' quarter.

 

[raptalia]

It's official, the NSW outbreak was a Victorian export.

PM confirms Sydney outbreak's link to Victoria

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in Sydney originated from Victoria.

More than 30 cases of coronavirus have been linked to the Crossroads Hotel at Casula, in Sydney's south-west.

Mr Morrison this morning told Victorian radio station Triple M the cases can be traced back to Melbourne.

Here's what he said:

"What we do know is that the strain, genetically, that has turned up in NSW has come from Victoria.

"We do know that.

"And that just means that in terms of community outbreak in NSW that hasn't come from within NSW."

Live: NSW pub coronavirus strain linked to Victoria, PM says

Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirms the strain of coronavirus at the centre of the outbreak at the Crossroads Hotel in Sydney's south-west came from Victoria. Follow live.

www.abc.net.au

 

[bomberclifford]

"3) You don't "create" cases by testing. The notion that testing somehow creates cases rather than simply identifying them is truly remarkable."

There is obviously an attempted 'gotcha' in the wording, but Trump's point is very valid. If you have two countries of 100 people each, and each has 10 people with covid... If country one tests 10 people but country two tests 50 people then on average country one will show up with 1 case and country two will show up with 5 cases, and we know the media is dishonest enough to report on country two being out of control whereas country one will barely be mentioned as a result.

In practice is America actually number 1 in testing? No. Not even close... tests per million is listed below:

View attachment 912558
Clearly Russia is the gold standard in testing, behaviour and treatment (not going to lie I didn't see that coming 6 months ago), and the UK and Spain are also the same or better than the USA in testing... But his point is very valid when you compare the numbers to that in Mexico, Brazil or India. If you were to assume a similar efficiency in test targeting (which obviously you can't but I will just so I can add some numbers)...

If they tested the same amount of people as America:
USA's cases = 3,535,819
India's cases would be 937,487 * (132161/8760) = 14,145,351
Mexico's cases would be 304,435 * (132161/5737) = 7,013,945
Brazil's cases would be 1,926,824 * (132161/21508) = 11,841,170

None of this changes the fact that America's handling of the virus appears to have been pretty bad no matter how you look at it, but CNN is just ******* awful and I wanted to point that out. They have less credibility than the Betoota Advocate.

If Trump wanted to make it clearer he would say 'when you standardise our total case numbers using our levels of testing, america's covid situation is probably in a better position than several other comparable countries'... but if he put it like that he would a) still be feeding the fake news trolls that will twist whatever he says regardless, and b) be missing a chance to appeal to his base by playing to the myth of 'american exceptionalism'

These are good points.

In my mind it was clear that Trump was using his NY brand of sarcasm when talking about testing.
Paraphrasing: "I said to him, I said, 'The numbers are too high, just stop testing already, whydoncha! You're killing me here!'"
(I should add that this is in no way an endorsement of Trump, in any way, shape, or form.)

 

[DaTBird187]

Andrews-style lockdown not on the cards for NSW

Infections and fears for community transmission might be on the rise in New South Wales, but Premier Gladys Berejiklian has all but ruled out sending her state back into lockdown, saying it’s “no way to live”.

www.news.com.au

Infections might be on the rise, but NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has all but ruled out sending her state back into lockdown.

Infections and fears for community transmission might be on the rise in New South Wales, but Premier Gladys Berejiklian has all but ruled out sending her state back into lockdown, saying it’s “no way to live”.

“What we determined the best course in managing this pandemic is what we call a suppression strategy. Unfortunately what we all have to accept is that as restrictions have [released] and as people start to go back to work and to daily lives, we will see case numbers increase.


The Premier last night said part of the reason NSW couldn’t just revert back to a lockdown every time there’s a new cluster of COVID-19 infections is because it’s unlikely the state will ever achieve elimination, due to the size of the population.

She added it was important NSW residents find a way to “coexist with the virus”.

Finally a commonsense approach.

 

[DaTBird187]

Do we trust Russia's numbers? Seems surprising they'd be at the forefront of these sorta things.

Sent from my Nokia 7.2 using Tapatalk

It's accurate for the general population. The problem is it doesn't include residents of Gulag's.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Are any AFL clubs staying in Sydney's western suburbs?

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...tern-sydney-as-coronavirus-hotspots-c-1164250

People coming into Queensland from western Sydney locations Liverpool and Campbelltown will be turned away unless they are residents of the Sunshine State.

The areas have been declared coronavirus hotspots by the Queensland government.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

 

[Schulzenfest]

You know what? As much as I'd love to see it in SA, Queensland deserve it. They've rescued the AFL season while SA and WA sat on their hands and slavishly protected their zeroes.

 

[DaTBird187]

You know what? As much as I'd love to see it in SA, Queensland deserve it. They've rescued the AFL season while SA and WA sat on their hands and slavishly protected their zeroes.

As much as I'd love it at Adelaide Oval, I tend to agree. The continued closing of the border to NSW was the final overreacting decision SA has made. I mean what is our end game here?

 

[Forzaport]

Some interesting bits in today’s COVID blog.

KFC gatherings, Pokémon Go a no no, people hiding in cupboards to avoid police.

Live: 351 infringements issued in Victoria, people found at house party, hiding in cupboards, police say

21 new coronavirus cases among Victorian hospital staff as state's health chief points to 'some stabilisation'

Staff across Victoria's Northern Hospital, Bundoora Centre and Broadmeadows hospital have been diagnosed with coronavirus as the state's Chief Health Officer says new cases show signs of "some stabilisation" following lockdown measures. Follow live.

www.abc.net.au

 

[raptalia]

Marshall has actually softened the SA stance in the past couple of days and would be happy to have a couple of AFL clubs spend time in Adelaide to play the Power and Crows provided they have spent two weeks outside of Victoria or NSW. St Kilda were asked but declined as they would sooner FIFO from Queensland. It matters little as long as we get games in Adelaide.

 

[Interstater]

You know what? As much as I'd love to see it in SA, Queensland deserve it. They've rescued the AFL season while SA and WA sat on their hands and slavishly protected their zeroes.

As much as I'd love it at Adelaide Oval, I tend to agree. The continued closing of the border to NSW was the final overreacting decision SA has made. I mean what is our end game here?

I disagree with both of you.

We have not been slavish, in fact we have been the opposite, federally they wanted the borders open and we have resisted, which in part prevented the great Victorian evacuation from becoming a real issue here so far.

We have to keep the border to NSW closed past the July 20 date if our transmission committee on Friday say so. Marshall has given early notice of that for logistical reasons. Perhaps that will be reversed next week if NSW recovers, but I vote for caution. It allows us to keep our businesses open with less fear of reverting to lockdowns.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

The latest cross-border attempt brings back memories of railway hobo movies and Simpsons gifs.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...ht-train/4fdad9d4-54ca-45e2-8f90-f5dd0c693602

Police have charged four men who allegedly tried to stowaway out of Victoria on a freight train overnight.
The freight train had departed Melbourne at 10.30pm yesterday, bound for Perth.
South Australia Police officers were called when the four men, believed to be Victorians, were seen onboard the train when it stopped at Adelaide Freight Terminal at Regency Park this morning.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Marshall has actually soften the SA stance in the past couple of days and would be happy to have a couple of AFL clubs spend time in Adelaide to play the Power and Crows provided they have spent two weeks outside of Victoria or NSW. St Kilda were asked but declined as they would sooner FIFO from Queensland. It matters little as long as we get games in Adelaide.

Too little too late.

Why would a Vic team hub here when it's about 15-16 degrees in the day and 3-4 at sunrise compared to SE Qld 22-24 sunny days and resort hotels on golf courses near the beach and plenty of multisports facilities??.

Had to roll out the carpet not be reactionary.