Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

[Interstater]

Great that you have chosen this arbitrary measure, it's a very neat formula that may work well in theory, but is patently obsurd when you factor in human behaviour. People go to bars and restaurants to socialise, you could put 2 people in a 100sqm room and they will stand right next to each other because that is what they are there for. In what imaginary universe will people enter a venue and space each other keeping the minimum safe distance that underpins your model. It becomes even more ridiculous when you imagine a venue at capacity where each individual is standing in a perfect grid to validate the reasoning behind the 4sqm box that underpins your model. The human factor is what makes this ridiculous, no one will follow the behaviour that underpins your assumptions.

I'm not expecting everyone to comply, but the smarter ones will.

If you go to a place like the one below with a group of four you are going to make the assumption that you do not need the 1.5 metres from the other three, but you do need it from everyone else in the venue.

PS: these guys do an awesome Ramen and they do takeaway.

 

[sobrave]

What does the 9th Wonder of the World have to do with Coronavirus?

There was a backdoor vector

 

[Interstater]

So, with Steve Marshall about to shut South Australia’s borders - I assume after the Showdown that AFL is off for the 2 SA clubs...

Do you have a link for where this was said?

 

[sobrave]

800 deaths in one day in Italy.

iT's JuSt ThE fLu!!

 

[sobrave]

“The only thing that makes Italy different is that the first couple of (locally-transmitted) cases arrived in Italy about 10 days before they arrived in Germany, the United States or Canada.”

 

[pastmyprimus]

There's an article in the Financial Review about COVID-19. It says the key measure to track is the doubling rate, or the number of days it takes for infected cases to double. To avoid a health catastrophe you need to need to achieve a number of 6 days or higher. South Korea and Singapore have done this.

Australia is doubling at a rate of 3-4 days. Our current measures aren't working well enough. A lockdown is inevitable. In LA residents have been ordered to lockdown possibly for as long as 8 weeks.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Seems just last week 350 was a big number in Italy. No wait it was yesterday? Up to 1 death an hour in NYC just warming up.

 

[GremioPower]

View attachment 844485

Seems just last week 350 was a big number in Italy. No wait it was yesterday? Up to 1 death an hour in NYC just warming up.

These Chinese numbers are either fake or wrong.

I don't trust the accuracy of any of those numbers, but the Chinese must be the most far from reality.

 

[MaxPowa]

View attachment 844485

Seems just last week 350 was a big number in Italy. No wait it was yesterday? Up to 1 death an hour in NYC just warming up.

Great work in putting the table together! Would also be interesting to see how the % of daily increases in cases tracks vs increase % increase in daily tests done.

 

[raptalia]

The emerging problem is Spain where the latest figures are a death every 5 minutes which was twice that of Italy.

 

[Interstater]

View attachment 844485

Seems just last week 350 was a big number in Italy. No wait it was yesterday? Up to 1 death an hour in NYC just warming up.

Thank you for providing the table, but without seeing the whole table thing, I can only assume that the "% of deaths" calculation is wrong.

 

[MaxPowa]

“The only thing that makes Italy different is that the first couple of (locally-transmitted) cases arrived in Italy about 10 days before they arrived in Germany, the United States or Canada.”

That's patently false "the only thing". How about weather, number of people over 65, significant cultural contact (kissing hello), population density... Plenty of things that make Italy different from Australia, or the US or China or Germany etc.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

These Chinese numbers are either fake or wrong.

No they just got tough on it. They did exactly what science tells us is the right thing to do.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

These Chinese numbers are either fake or wrong.

They are certainly wrong to an extent (as all numbers for all countries are), but I think if hospitals were being flooded like they were in Wuhan in early Jan we would be seeing significant leaks, and I also don't think the Chinese would be providing so much support to other countries as they would need the supplies internally.

There is a shitload of counter-intuitive stuff going on here in terms of the countries we thought would struggle and the countries we thought would handle it.

If it January you had told me that Italy had the highest recorded deaths and India, Taiwan and Russia seemed to be largely coping I wouldn't have believed you.

 

[sobrave]

That's patently false "the only thing". How about weather, number of people over 65, significant cultural contact (kissing hello), population density... Plenty of things that make Italy different from Australia, or the US or China or Germany etc.

Spain looks to be following the same trend as Italy. As does the USA albeit a few weeks behind.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Thank you for providing the table, but without seeing the whole table thing, I can only assume that the "% of deaths" calculation is wrong.

Which one?

 

[chachi11]

China numbers aren't believable

 

[MaxPowa]

Spain looks to be following the same trend as Italy. As does the USA albeit a few weeks behind.

Spain yes, but the similarities to Italy are much higher there.

US is an interesting case. Due to their lack of testing and significant infection numbers detected from US citizens abroad for well over a week now, their infection numbers would appear to be massively under reported and therefore their mortality rate is clearly far below Spain and Italy.

 

[Interstater]

Which one?

It may be that I'm interpreting the % of deaths column incorrectly but:
- Italy 4825 deaths = 9.01% vs
- Spain 1378 deaths = 5.43%
doesn't look right.

--------------

On another topic I've taken the data from one of the country based charts and put it on my youtube channel.
I'm not sure why the start of the youtube is blurry, I'm new to using the OBS Studio tool to record youtubes.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Spain looks to be following the same trend as Italy. As does the USA albeit a few weeks behind.

If you look at the amount of USA cases compared to the number of American people with the virus arriving in Aus and NZ it's pretty clear the USA's numbers are completely unreliable. They are probably doing much worse than they appear; their cases are low because they aren't testing.

Spain was probably the country I was most worried about after Iran not long ago, but they are at least right now not following the Italian curve to quite the same extent, possibly because they learned from Italy's mistakes and cracked down on it.



Edit: Actually looking back this does look very similar to Italy's numbers at a similar stage in their outbreak.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Spain yes, but the similarities to Italy are much higher there.

US is anninteresting case. Due to their lack of testing and significant infection numbers detected from US citizens abroad for wellmover a week now, their infection numbers would appear to be massively underestimated and therefore their mortality rate is clearly far below Spain and Italy.

This assumes that those who are dying are correctly tracked as well.

In the US there are likely a lot of people dying from "flu" and "pneumonia" that are actually COVID deaths unrecorded.

 

[raptalia]

Do you have a link for where this was said?

Front page headline in today's Monopoly Mail.

SA hits 100 cases as borders close

The number of South Australians who have tested positive to the coronavirus has reached 100 after 33 more cases were diagnosed on Sunday.

www.news.com.au

Good move. The way Berejiklian and her Government have ****ed things up in NSW where the virus has the potential to explode I think we would be wise to isolate ourselves from NSW but that unfortunately has to include Victoria.

I think it is also time to direct that all foreign nationals in Australia leave the country. Having COVID-19 infected American tourists swanning around the Barossa is not an option. The ten tourists are now in isolation but how many people have they infected while travelling around the State. This is not a time for sightseeing anywhere in the world.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Front page headline in today's Monopoly Mail.

SA hits 100 cases as borders close

The number of South Australians who have tested positive to the coronavirus has reached 100 after 33 more cases were diagnosed on Sunday.

www.news.com.au

Good move. The way Berejiklian and her Government have f’ed things up in NSW where the virus has the potential to explode I think we would be wise to isolate ourselves from NSW but that unfortunately has to include Victoria.

It's probably at the point where all the states need to do this. Exemptions to be made for trade and those in the rural areas where needed.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Just quietly how lucky is Adelaide to have a couple of spare hospitals lying around. Low density population and wide open spaces?
An older demographic and fairly quiet night life anyway helps as well.
We are as well positioned to nail the virus as any city on the planet.

Personally I've got to get used to being broke for about 6 months but it should still work out OK. I'm genuine fearful for friends in the USA.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Lock the farker down Marshall