Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

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Have a trip planned to Vietnam in late April/Early May. At this stage still going. Can’t really worry or make final decision until closer to the time. I think the issue by then will be greater here than over there and they may put travel restrictions on Australians. Notice the women’s soccer team are playing there tonight. They have been taking extreme measures for awhile, Eg.schools closed for last 4 weeks.
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Was the same in France a few years ago.

Also visited a Paris hospital. Talk about sterile. And had the obligatory gypsy family living in the emergency driveway.
I was in Paris last year and just staggered at the proportion of young people who smoked. Seemed to be most of them . Similar story in the provincial areas.
 

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Have a trip planned to Vietnam in late April/Early May. At this stage still going. Can’t really worry or make final decision until closer to the time. I think the issue by then will be greater here than over there and they may put travel restrictions on Australians. Notice the women’s soccer team are playing there tonight. They have been taking extreme measures for awhile, Eg.schools closed for last 4 weeks.
If you haven’t been before, make sure you sort your Visa paperwork out beforehand, make sure you have your Visa approval letter with you, two ID photos of the correct size (Australia Post has this information), and take US$25.

Even with all the appropriate paperwork in order, immigration can take a couple of hours.

If you’re landing in Ho Chi Minh, and staying close to the city. You’ll get a much, much better rate going to a currency converter in the city, than you will here or at the airport.

If you’ve been before, have fun again.
 
If you haven’t been before, make sure you sort your Visa paperwork out beforehand, make sure you have your Visa approval letter with you, two ID photos of the correct size (Australia Post has this information), and take US$25.

Even with all the appropriate paperwork in order, immigration can take a couple of hours.

If you’re landing in Ho Chi Minh, and staying close to the city. You’ll get a much, much better rate going to a currency converter in the city, than you will here or at the airport.

If you’ve been before, have fun again.
Going to Hanoi and the north - Sapa. Been before and yes that is good advice, although last time got through immigration reasonably quickly. Expecting long delays this time though.
 
Same with our work, we have temporarily banned/postponed any international travel for work, including letting HR know about travel for personal reasons.
However, I'm still going to be located in Paris for 6 months (miss the entire AFL season :'() Leaving in 3 weeks, so I guess it's not that serious. Distinguishing between travel & relocation I guess?
 
When a story gets big enough that it's taken away from the science beat and to regular news journos, the quality of reporting is always terrible. Usually it's repeating the sexiest claims from research PR without actually reading journal articles and they go to their little black book of talking heads for "expert" comment often from people who have no idea. A good mate of mine who is a PHD in biochem and genetics tells me stories of being interviewed about his research and then contacted by the "independent expert" commenting on the story asking what they should say so they don't look stupid because they wouldn't be able to understand his research even if they read it.

I don't have any faith in the current government's ability to listen to the best available advice. Everything will be run through their ideological cement mixer first, which means they will actively ignore the best advice available and make slow decisions based on confirmation bias, anecdotes and magical/intuitive thinking. Listening to the front-line health services talk about the lack of information filtering down to them is pretty distressing.

I'm going to be okay. But this country has gotten crueler and crueler to people in the margins over the last 25 years and we're pretty quick to find reasons to rule someone out of being deserving of compassion and community support. But hey at least we pull together for a week or two after disaster has struck! True blue Aussie spirit oi oi oi!

I'm disappointed because events I've been looking forward to will probably be cancelled for no reason, not even offering a bandaid solution to the spread. Council elections in qld are also going to be interesting. That will be a day for some hardcore vectoring through communities.
 
Always amazing to realise how far ahead of the curve Australia is with smoking. Not until you go overseas do you remember how much its changed here.

But yes countries with higher smoking probably will have more issues right now
I still remember thinking Nicola Roxon who fought for the tobacco reforms had bigger balls and than any other politician I can recall
 

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I was firmly in the 'it's just the flu' camp 3-4 days ago - after reading and watching a lot of first hand reports from China and Italy I now understand why containment is needed. I don't think it's dooms day time, but I think it's real and I think it's dangerous.

Predicting how this pans out is guess work at this stage, even experts are guessing.

I am however now seriously concerned about this season.

I know every one is trying to act as if it's business as usual at AFL HQ. However, if this thing keeps going the way it is.. it will end up in AFL teams, players won't be able to play and clubs with be shut down. Clubs are already in quarentine. Playing in empty stadiums is inevitable, plus eventual flight and other logistical issues.

It honestly feels unlikely we make it through the season and if we do it will be severely comprimised. Clubs are already going into isolation.

Even Whatley said tonight.. "that's if we even start in round 1".

I dunno, I am no expert.. but it's starting to feel like a futile excercise, im struggling to even get excited for round 1 at this stage.
 
I am clearly in the minority on this thread.
I posted a comment on news.com which appears below. I usually avoid doing this for many reasons.
it is just my opinion.I had to take out all punctuation to get under the character limit.

My comment on article
So far every world leader has gone down the same path of trying to control this virus which from what i read is really only a very bad flu Figures posted today in this online paper has the total death rate in China of 3.6 % of the reported cases Mostly people over 80 are in this figure Which i imagine is a bit higher than a usual flu season of people in this age group So unless governments world wide are keeping us all in the dark over something i don't understand this panic

Nothing has stopped the spread If China and their type of government had no luck in containing this virus no country will be successful Can you imagine if our government went down the Italy path

I am waiting for a leader of a G20 country to state something like

"We are keeping everything open as usual Will let the virus run it's course Factory's schools sports and entertainment venues transport everything all business as usual but with reduced production and services All monies will be channeled into health and education to help reduce the spread until it dies down by itself A vaccine is somewhere down the track about 6 to 12 months so don't panic Our country and the world will get through this together But we are not closing down the country We have no restrictions on leaving or entering this country People travel at their own risk"

It is almost certain that most countries will fall into recession for a period of time. But what we don't want is another Great Depression of 1929 to 1933 Surely this will happen if we continue down this present path Far more lives will be lost. The world economy collapses

Italy what a stupid government decision. What do you believe will happen when you open up your country after a period of time. Being stupid i will tell you. The virus will continue to run its course.

Hopefully a leader from a G20 country is out their somewhere willing to make a great decision.
.............................................................................................................................................
Jason's reply to my comment

You need to understand 'Flatten the curve'. This is why there are experts, and you should listen to them
.........................................................................................................................................

My reply to Jason
So called experts regularly get things wrong.
Jason let us know what you think the end result of this virus will do to this country and the world in general if every country continues to do what they are doing now. This is a genuine question to you and others

At this very point in time 3.10PM (channel 24) the health minister just said "the vast majority of people that actually contact this virus will have very mild symptoms and recover quickly". Then they cross to others and panic is the main theme.

Why is everyone panicking.
People are like sheep unless we have good leaders i am worried what will happen. Toilet paper aside.

By panicking we have just destroyed to date the tourism and university industry for 12 months at least. Many more to follow if we continue to follow what other countries are doing.
................................................................................................................................................
David's reply to my comment

I don't think you understand the impact of this...

The regular flu has a death rate of around 0.1%. This compared to the 3.4% reported rate of the Corona Virus is a very big difference.

Many of the countries are trying to spread out the infection so that the health care systems can cope. If you were to take Australia with around 25 million people, if everyone got sick all at once and let's assume a 5% hospitalisation rate, you are looking at 1.25 million people needing care all at the same time.
...........................................................................................................................................................
My reply to David

David the 3.6 % of China's reported cases i mentioned in the first post was from 116,000 cases with death rate being 4176. I can't locate the article from this site but it was 116,000+ confirmed cases

So i understand more than your figure of 1.25 million Australians hospitalized based on our population using my rate incorrectly.

China's population is 1.4 billion with only 116,000 cases so, that's only 0.0082 %

So on that basis Australia population of say 25.6 million That's = 2050 cases
So on China's death rate of 3.6% that's 74 deaths.
But you can't just base figures on China's rate but you get an idea.

Below is the last 3 years of Australia's confirmed flu numbers from an official site.
2019 : 313,061 exceeded the bad 2017 season
2018 : 58,570
2017 : 249,882 the worst for some time

Amazingly i can't quickly find the flu death numbers for these three years.
One official site states on average 3000 Australians per year.
Another had year 2017 with only 1255 deaths.
But what ever the number they are usually elderly with other health conditions.
I am 67 so not young.If i survive great if not that's life.

On your other point about everyone getting sick at one time and hospitals won't cope, that is a very unlikely situation.

As i said in my first comment it will be just a very bad flu season.
Panic and bad decisions is the problem for the country not the virus itself.
 
It honestly feels unlikely we make it through the season and if we do it will be severely comprimised. Clubs are already going into isolation.

I think a really important point though is that this is all the protocol of the containment period - once it's widespread (assuming that happens), there won't be any reason to cancel flights/games etc. I expect that at most we'll see 3-4 rounds seriously impacted, but no more than that.
 
I think a really important point though is that this is all the protocol of the containment period - once it's widespread (assuming that happens), there won't be any reason to cancel flights/games etc. I expect that at most we'll see 3-4 rounds seriously impacted, but no more than that.

Yeah containment is just to flatten the spike, they can't enforce containment forever.
 
I am clearly in the minority on this thread.
I posted a comment on news.com which appears below. I usually avoid doing this for many reasons.
it is just my opinion.I had to take out all punctuation to get under the character limit.

My comment on article
So far every world leader has gone down the same path of trying to control this virus which from what i read is really only a very bad flu Figures posted today in this online paper has the total death rate in China of 3.6 % of the reported cases Mostly people over 80 are in this figure Which i imagine is a bit higher than a usual flu season of people in this age group So unless governments world wide are keeping us all in the dark over something i don't understand this panic

Nothing has stopped the spread If China and their type of government had no luck in containing this virus no country will be successful Can you imagine if our government went down the Italy path

I am waiting for a leader of a G20 country to state something like

"We are keeping everything open as usual Will let the virus run it's course Factory's schools sports and entertainment venues transport everything all business as usual but with reduced production and services All monies will be channeled into health and education to help reduce the spread until it dies down by itself A vaccine is somewhere down the track about 6 to 12 months so don't panic Our country and the world will get through this together But we are not closing down the country We have no restrictions on leaving or entering this country People travel at their own risk"

It is almost certain that most countries will fall into recession for a period of time. But what we don't want is another Great Depression of 1929 to 1933 Surely this will happen if we continue down this present path Far more lives will be lost. The world economy collapses

Italy what a stupid government decision. What do you believe will happen when you open up your country after a period of time. Being stupid i will tell you. The virus will continue to run its course.

Hopefully a leader from a G20 country is out their somewhere willing to make a great decision.
.............................................................................................................................................
Jason's reply to my comment

You need to understand 'Flatten the curve'. This is why there are experts, and you should listen to them
.........................................................................................................................................

My reply to Jason
So called experts regularly get things wrong.
Jason let us know what you think the end result of this virus will do to this country and the world in general if every country continues to do what they are doing now. This is a genuine question to you and others

At this very point in time 3.10PM (channel 24) the health minister just said "the vast majority of people that actually contact this virus will have very mild symptoms and recover quickly". Then they cross to others and panic is the main theme.

Why is everyone panicking.
People are like sheep unless we have good leaders i am worried what will happen. Toilet paper aside.

By panicking we have just destroyed to date the tourism and university industry for 12 months at least. Many more to follow if we continue to follow what other countries are doing.
................................................................................................................................................
David's reply to my comment

I don't think you understand the impact of this...

The regular flu has a death rate of around 0.1%. This compared to the 3.4% reported rate of the Corona Virus is a very big difference.

Many of the countries are trying to spread out the infection so that the health care systems can cope. If you were to take Australia with around 25 million people, if everyone got sick all at once and let's assume a 5% hospitalisation rate, you are looking at 1.25 million people needing care all at the same time.
...........................................................................................................................................................
My reply to David

David the 3.6 % of China's reported cases i mentioned in the first post was from 116,000 cases with death rate being 4176. I can't locate the article from this site but it was 116,000+ confirmed cases

So i understand more than your figure of 1.25 million Australians hospitalized based on our population using my rate incorrectly.

China's population is 1.4 billion with only 116,000 cases so, that's only 0.0082 %

So on that basis Australia population of say 25.6 million That's = 2050 cases
So on China's death rate of 3.6% that's 74 deaths.
But you can't just base figures on China's rate but you get an idea.

Below is the last 3 years of Australia's confirmed flu numbers from an official site.
2019 : 313,061 exceeded the bad 2017 season
2018 : 58,570
2017 : 249,882 the worst for some time

Amazingly i can't quickly find the flu death numbers for these three years.
One official site states on average 3000 Australians per year.
Another had year 2017 with only 1255 deaths.
But what ever the number they are usually elderly with other health conditions.
I am 67 so not young.If i survive great if not that's life.

On your other point about everyone getting sick at one time and hospitals won't cope, that is a very unlikely situation.

As i said in my first comment it will be just a very bad flu season.
Panic and bad decisions is the problem for the country not the virus itself.

Are you following what's happening in Italy? that changed my mind.
 
Nothing has stopped the spread If China and their type of government had no luck in containing this virus no country will be successful
Except they demonstrably have been successful. China has over a billion people. They limited the virus' area of impact to a fraction of that. The US currently has more individual areas affected than China - obviously a massive difference in the absolute number of cases but we'll see if that persists.
 
Except they demonstrably have been successful. China has over a billion people. They limited the virus' area of impact to a fraction of that. The US currently has more individual areas affected than China - obviously a massive difference in the absolute number of cases but we'll see if that persists.
if you trust their reporting. Seems almost too good to be true that only one country can contain it?
 
I was firmly in the 'it's just the flu' camp 3-4 days ago - after reading and watching a lot of first hand reports from China and Italy I now understand why containment is needed. I don't think it's dooms day time, but I think it's real and I think it's dangerous.

Predicting how this pans out is guess work at this stage, even experts are guessing.

I am however now seriously concerned about this season.

I know every one is trying to act as if it's business as usual at AFL HQ. However, if this thing keeps going the way it is.. it will end up in AFL teams, players won't be able to play and clubs with be shut down. Clubs are already in quarentine. Playing in empty stadiums is inevitable, plus eventual flight and other logistical issues.

It honestly feels unlikely we make it through the season and if we do it will be severely comprimised. Clubs are already going into isolation.

Even Whatley said tonight.. "that's if we even start in round 1".

I dunno, I am no expert.. but it's starting to feel like a futile excercise, im struggling to even get excited for round 1 at this stage.
Correct.

GP in Vic will be he tipping point. It's so imaginably dumb to hold it and cases will rise exponentially the week after.
 
As someone who works in the medical field it is interesting seeing the panic and castastrophising that occurs in the community/media.

Firstly the actual mortality rate for this virus is hard to calculate. The disease itself causes very mild to no symptoms in younger people so these people routinely dont get tested for COVID-19. We do know that it effects older people and people with lung conditions a lot harder and the mortality might be higher than the reported 3% in those populations (as we dont test everyone who has passed on in that age group). Suffice to say if you are young COVID-19 is most likely not going to affect you more than the usual winter flu season (apart from maybe very expensive medical bills if you decide to travel during this period and your insurance decides not to cover you). It is not like SARS/avian flu etc where younger fit people were more likely to die than expected.

The difficult thing about COVID-19 is that it is very transmissible even in asymptomatic people and that it is likely more lethal to immunocompromised/older/frail people than the common flu. So there is a very real risk you could accidentally pass this disease onto your older relatives and harm could come from it. That is why governments are moving to shut down bigger events. We know that a large percentage of the population will get this virus because its so good at spreading. What we need to do is slow down the spread so that it goes through the population at a rate with which the hospital system can cope and provide adequate care to those who need it. Deaths will increase if the disease has a sharp peak and we are left with not enough beds (and staff) to care for all the sick older folks.

There is no benefit in closing the borders anymore. The virus is likely already in the community. What we need to do is slow down its rate of spread through the community. That might mean shutting down sporting/cultural events where diseases can spread easily. The local council elections should also be postponed (if the government was smart enough). Shutting down schools is a double edged sword. Firstly kids arent likely to experience any major symptoms from COVID-19 so it wont protect them. However, kids are likely one way of getting the virus to spread between households so that is one argument in favour of school shut downs. On the other hand a school shut down means doctors, nurses, and many other clinical staff won't be available to come into work and that would be catastrophic to those needing aid in hospitals. Hospital workers like myself are already very likely to get infected and have to take sick leave from COVID-19 (we are estimating we will lose 20% of staff to sick leave). Imagine losing a whole load more staff because they cant find carers for their kids at home. The system would crash.

What you should do is make sure you are fastidious about hand hygiene. Wash your hands. Dont touch your face. Avoid unnecessary contact. Try and work from home. Maybe stockpile a bunch of food so you dont have to go to the shops if you are quarantined. Also actually follow the goddam advice people give you. There are people coming up to fever clinic and not following the signs properly and going to the right waiting room (just barging into the ED). There are stupid dropkicks who get the test done and then go to the shops/cinemas/work etc whilst waiting for the result. These people aren't just your everyday average Nerangers but people who should know better like other doctors and nurses.

You should especially look out for those loved ones in nursing homes. Unfortunately nursing homes are the perfect kill site for this virus. Not to mention most nursing homes are a rort that employ the bare minimum of casual staff. Nursing homes are likely going to find it difficult to staff their wards; let alone quarantine effectively those that are unwell. Also expect hospitals to knock back nursing home patients if there is a bed squeeze. Hospitals are going to have to make difficult decisions on whether to accept some older folks from nursing homes vs younger (50-70ish) ill folks.

Interestingly there is probably going to be deaths indirectly related to COVID19. I work in cancer care. We are having some of our junior doctor and nursing staff re-directed to staffing flu clinics for COVID19. We are also cancelling and rebooking clinics and some are becoming telehealth clinics. This is likely going to impair how we deliver treatment for cancer patients and I am sure some cancer patients will pass on because of this. Not to mention there are people with cancer now who will avoid going to the GP/hospital because of COVID19 and thus will miss their diagnosis in the next few months.

We live in interesting times. In sum: its not going to be apocalyptic like the Spanish flu. If you are 40 and below its not likely to harm you or your children. If you are 40-70 and have some health problems you may face some trouble with a significant flu like symptoms. If you are 80 and above these are some troubling times as you are the perfect group for COVID19 deaths. A large number of the deaths is going to be from our health system and aged care not coping with the number of sick older folks needing hospitalisation. Being careful not to spread the disease will really help hospitals cope. The other thing you can do is actually follow the ****ing advice and not be an absolute cretin with a she'll be right attitude and ignore quarantine instructions. So many aussies are a NIMBY/I got mine so kick the ladder away type who only care for number 1. They dont follow instructions and will cause this thing to spread really quickly. I feel bad for the lower SES people who are dependent on their paychecks to not be homeless. These people are really going to suffer from having to decide to quarantine or put food on the table. Hopefully the government steps in but I have no faith in this government (but I guess this is what we deserve for voting in a government who's only platform was magical tax cuts and not doing anything else apart from legalising bigotry against LGBT folk). There will be plenty of deaths amongst the older folks in Australia but the world will probably quickly return to normal in the next 6 months. We will probably enter a recession from this and the economic impacts will take longer to recover.
 
Section 5, I didn’t copy and paste your post as it was to long.

My only comment is...

But China did contain the spread of the virus within their own country. 95% percent of the cases and deaths, were contained to one city within China. Wuhan.

Villages all over China set up road blocks, stopping all outside traffic from entering their villages.

High rise apartment complexes in populated cities barricaded themselves in, only allowing residents of the complex in and out.

The hospitals in Wuhan effectively locked all their staff in. Staff weren’t allowed to go home, they slept onsite at their hospitals. For fear they would spread the virus to family members or their apartment block.

China set up large quarantine areas, where close contact people were housed until they showed themselves as clear.

1.2 million people were forced to self isolate in Beijing because they came home for the lunar festival, from other parts of China. Many were only allowed to leave this week.


Image if the Mater, RBH and P.A. didn’t allow all their staff home when they were off shift, to try and help contain the spread of the virus.
 
Except they demonstrably have been successful. China has over a billion people. They limited the virus' area of impact to a fraction of that. The US currently has more individual areas affected than China - obviously a massive difference in the absolute number of cases but we'll see if that persists.
I agree that is what i stated.
Our cases will be a lot higher.

Without stating my opinion again on population % deaths.
Say it is triple the cases (From my reply to David) so that's 74 x 3 = 222 maybe more.
1161 people died on roads last year. No panic just more education and fines.
I know i sound a bit trivial about people dying.
I just believe that continuing down this path will have a worse outcome for everyone. Including more deaths.
 
Correct.

GP in Vic will be he tipping point. It's so imaginably dumb to hold it and cases will rise exponentially the week after.

It's hard to know exactly what the next wave holds. The USA are a while ahead of us and are still holding NBA games and other events without massive spikes to follow.

It's funny how it breaks out in certain cities like Wuhan, Seattle and the City in Northern Italy but remains stagnent elsewhere.

It will spread, people (especially older) will die as a result, the overall impact is unknown.

I'm not one for panic, but this thing is going to completely shape the year 2020, whether it's through actual deaths, the economic impacts or containment measures - that's already certain.
 

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