Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

[lioninthesand]

As someone who works in the medical field it is interesting seeing the panic and castastrophising that occurs in the community/media.

Firstly the actual mortality rate for this virus is hard to calculate. The disease itself causes very mild to no symptoms in younger people so these people routinely dont get tested for COVID-19. We do know that it effects older people and people with lung conditions a lot harder and the mortality might be higher than the reported 3% in those populations (as we dont test everyone who has passed on in that age group). Suffice to say if you are young COVID-19 is most likely not going to affect you more than the usual winter flu season (apart from maybe very expensive medical bills if you decide to travel during this period and your insurance decides not to cover you). It is not like SARS/avian flu etc where younger fit people were more likely to die than expected.

The difficult thing about COVID-19 is that it is very transmissible even in asymptomatic people and that it is likely more lethal to immunocompromised/older/frail people than the common flu. So there is a very real risk you could accidentally pass this disease onto your older relatives and harm could come from it. That is why governments are moving to shut down bigger events. We know that a large percentage of the population will get this virus because its so good at spreading. What we need to do is slow down the spread so that it goes through the population at a rate with which the hospital system can cope and provide adequate care to those who need it. Deaths will increase if the disease has a sharp peak and we are left with not enough beds (and staff) to care for all the sick older folks.

There is no benefit in closing the borders anymore. The virus is likely already in the community. What we need to do is slow down its rate of spread through the community. That might mean shutting down sporting/cultural events where diseases can spread easily. The local council elections should also be postponed (if the government was smart enough). Shutting down schools is a double edged sword. Firstly kids arent likely to experience any major symptoms from COVID-19 so it wont protect them. However, kids are likely one way of getting the virus to spread between households so that is one argument in favour of school shut downs. On the other hand a school shut down means doctors, nurses, and many other clinical staff won't be available to come into work and that would be catastrophic to those needing aid in hospitals. Hospital workers like myself are already very likely to get infected and have to take sick leave from COVID-19 (we are estimating we will lose 20% of staff to sick leave). Imagine losing a whole load more staff because they cant find carers for their kids at home. The system would crash.

What you should do is make sure you are fastidious about hand hygiene. Wash your hands. Dont touch your face. Avoid unnecessary contact. Try and work from home. Maybe stockpile a bunch of food so you dont have to go to the shops if you are quarantined. Also actually follow the goddam advice people give you. There are people coming up to fever clinic and not following the signs properly and going to the right waiting room (just barging into the ED). There are stupid dropkicks who get the test done and then go to the shops/cinemas/work etc whilst waiting for the result. These people aren't just your everyday average Nerangers but people who should know better like other doctors and nurses.

You should especially look out for those loved ones in nursing homes. Unfortunately nursing homes are the perfect kill site for this virus. Not to mention most nursing homes are a rort that employ the bare minimum of casual staff. Nursing homes are likely going to find it difficult to staff their wards; let alone quarantine effectively those that are unwell. Also expect hospitals to knock back nursing home patients if there is a bed squeeze. Hospitals are going to have to make difficult decisions on whether to accept some older folks from nursing homes vs younger (50-70ish) ill folks.

Interestingly there is probably going to be deaths indirectly related to COVID19. I work in cancer care. We are having some of our junior doctor and nursing staff re-directed to staffing flu clinics for COVID19. We are also cancelling and rebooking clinics and some are becoming telehealth clinics. This is likely going to impair how we deliver treatment for cancer patients and I am sure some cancer patients will pass on because of this. Not to mention there are people with cancer now who will avoid going to the GP/hospital because of COVID19 and thus will miss their diagnosis in the next few months.

We live in interesting times. In sum: its not going to be apocalyptic like the Spanish flu. If you are 40 and below its not likely to harm you or your children. If you are 40-70 and have some health problems you may face some trouble with a significant flu like symptoms. If you are 80 and above these are some troubling times as you are the perfect group for COVID19 deaths. A large number of the deaths is going to be from our health system and aged care not coping with the number of sick older folks needing hospitalisation. Being careful not to spread the disease will really help hospitals cope. The other thing you can do is actually follow the ******* advice and not be an absolute cretin with a she'll be right attitude and ignore quarantine instructions. So many aussies are a NIMBY/I got mine so kick the ladder away type who only care for number 1. They dont follow instructions and will cause this thing to spread really quickly. I feel bad for the lower SES people who are dependent on their paychecks to not be homeless. These people are really going to suffer from having to decide to quarantine or put food on the table. Hopefully the government steps in but I have no faith in this government (but I guess this is what we deserve for voting in a government who's only platform was magical tax cuts and not doing anything else apart from legalising bigotry against LGBT folk). There will be plenty of deaths amongst the older folks in Australia but the world will probably quickly return to normal in the next 6 months. We will probably enter a recession from this and the economic impacts will take longer to recover.

Great post, one of the best I've seen in the topic.

It is interesting you started off saying you were surprised by the catastrophising.. but then went on to forecast some fairly serious outcomes.

It seems even the moderate positions are now slowly starting to move to a position where they are expecting the worst.

 

[martinson]

It's hard to know exactly what the next wave holds. The USA are a while ahead of us and are still holding NBA games and other events without massive spikes to follow.

It's funny how it breaks out in certain cities like Wuhan, Seattle and the City in Northern Italy but remains stagnent elsewhere.

It will spread, people (especially older) will die as a result, the overall impact is unknown.

I'm not one for panic, but this thing is going to completely shape the year 2020, whether it's through actual deaths, the economic impacts or containment measures - that's already certain.

This is a highly contagious virus for which there is no vaccine and the outcomes to date are preliminary at best. The ultimate course of this virus as far as World Health goes is completely conjectural. I'm not a doomsdayer but anyone who says it's just a flu and not a big issue is completely ill informed.

Therefore rigorous testing needs to be applied . Rigorous containment and quarantine measures need to be applied.

Singapore is the gold standard on how to deal with it and it's baffling that other countries haven't gone down that path. Albeit many are much larger and have don't have the easy cultural path that that the people in Singapore embrace. Still opportunities are slipping by, big wake up call coming.

 

[dlanod]

if you trust their reporting. Seems almost too good to be true that only one country can contain it?

No. Korea has too, given the latest numbers. And that's before accounting for the logic that the first place to suffer an outbreak would also be the first to get on top of it actually makes sense. But if you are truly committed to the Chinese conspiracy theory angle (can't tell yet) there's not much point raising either of those points.

 

[Section 5]

Lionraven great information.
Thanks for the post.

 

[dlanod]

The USA are a while ahead of us and are still holding NBA games and other events without massive spikes to follow.

They've cancelled tennis tournaments, election rallies, and Seattle has banned gatherings above 250 people. They just happen to be a more hodge podge response than even us because it's apparent that the federal government isn't taking it seriously.

 

[martinson]

The other issue is that we in Australia are coming into winter as the rest of the world is coming out of it.

 

[lionraven]

Great post, one of the best I've seen in the topic.

It is interesting you started off saying you were surprised by the catastrophising.. but then went on to forecast some fairly serious outcomes.

It seems even the moderate positions are now slowly starting to move to a position where they are expecting the worst.

The moderate position is not the blase position that this is just the flu. Its not the flu. Its more likely to kill than the flu; especially those older and already sick. Its also much more likely to spread quickly than the flu and infect too many people for the health system to cope (thus killing more people). Its not a Mad Max fight over toilet paper in Auburn type flu that some in the media paint. Most people will get through the next 6 months with no real consequences from COVID apart from maybe missing a holiday or having to take sick leave for work.

Its going to harm the older folks who are at risk. Its also going to harm those who work in retail/tourism/hospitality who cannot afford to miss work but will have to as confidence in the economy drops. A do-nothing style leadership is not going to help these folks get through COVID19. I dont think the government has the right people in place to really do anything coherent about it. We dont really have effective coordination between state and federnal governments. We are going to run around like headless chooks through this. Hopefully the end of this outbreak forces the government to really think about how we spend our health funding and hopefully co-ordinate it better in the future (and stop defunding our public health workforce!)

 

[briztoon]

Section 5 China has only reported ~80,000 cases with ~3000 deaths.

Looks like some of the figures you’ve been using were this mornings World total figures.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,239,149 Cases and 2,804,346 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Gadzorks]

if you trust their reporting. Seems almost too good to be true that only one country can contain it?

There was a photo/video that I saw of a metal door to an apartment block in China being welded shut supposedly as a containment action. Not/true who knows

Also was told of a report that a person who broke confinement in North Korea was executed. Again not/true who knows, but both scenarios are conceivable in those regimes but will not happen here or the US. If that’s what it takes, we are worse off than China.

Can only wait and see and hope we flatten the curve so all who need it can get treatment.

On a different virus - frontline health workers are getting two different flu vaccines this year which cover a total of 9 strains. Normally only one vaccine and 4/5 strains.
First One in April then again in august. Aiming to keep them healthy enough to care for those that need it. By the end of this we’ll owe them a beer or two.

 

[lioninthesand]

They've cancelled tennis tournaments, election rallies, and Seattle has banned gatherings above 250 people. They just happen to be a more hodge podge response than even us because it's apparent that the federal government isn't taking it seriously.

Yeah of coarse. Some measures have been taken. Just, as your last sentence suggests, life is going on as usual in parts where the infection is present without turning those places into Wuhan.

It's too early to tell if we should be containing right now. I think its more about spreading it out over a number of months to avoid hospitals getting slammed, than killing or containing the virus.

If so - tactically doing forced containment in May (for example) with planning and warning might be the smart option, we just don't know.

It'll be interesting to see what happens as China slowly gets back to business after the most intensive shut downs possible - my guess is it will spread like crazy again... illogical at this stage to assume otherwise.

 

[lioninthesand]

The other issue is that we in Australia are coming into winter as the rest of the world is coming out of it.

This is a worry.

 

[BRAB]

Great post, one of the best I've seen in the topic.

It is interesting you started off saying you were surprised by the catastrophising.. but then went on to forecast some fairly serious outcomes.

It seems even the moderate positions are now slowly starting to move to a position where they are expecting the worst.

These were my thoughts as well.

Recession
Boomers dying
Mass events cancelled.
6 Months of damage
Economic damage lasting longer than that.
"Killing Zones" in nursing homes.

Sounds pretty bad

 

[Saucery]

As someone who works in the medical field it is interesting seeing the panic and castastrophising that occurs in the community/media.

Firstly the actual mortality rate for this virus is hard to calculate. The disease itself causes very mild to no symptoms in younger people so these people routinely dont get tested for COVID-19. We do know that it effects older people and people with lung conditions a lot harder and the mortality might be higher than the reported 3% in those populations (as we dont test everyone who has passed on in that age group). Suffice to say if you are young COVID-19 is most likely not going to affect you more than the usual winter flu season (apart from maybe very expensive medical bills if you decide to travel during this period and your insurance decides not to cover you). It is not like SARS/avian flu etc where younger fit people were more likely to die than expected.

The difficult thing about COVID-19 is that it is very transmissible even in asymptomatic people and that it is likely more lethal to immunocompromised/older/frail people than the common flu. So there is a very real risk you could accidentally pass this disease onto your older relatives and harm could come from it. That is why governments are moving to shut down bigger events. We know that a large percentage of the population will get this virus because its so good at spreading. What we need to do is slow down the spread so that it goes through the population at a rate with which the hospital system can cope and provide adequate care to those who need it. Deaths will increase if the disease has a sharp peak and we are left with not enough beds (and staff) to care for all the sick older folks.

There is no benefit in closing the borders anymore. The virus is likely already in the community. What we need to do is slow down its rate of spread through the community. That might mean shutting down sporting/cultural events where diseases can spread easily. The local council elections should also be postponed (if the government was smart enough). Shutting down schools is a double edged sword. Firstly kids arent likely to experience any major symptoms from COVID-19 so it wont protect them. However, kids are likely one way of getting the virus to spread between households so that is one argument in favour of school shut downs. On the other hand a school shut down means doctors, nurses, and many other clinical staff won't be available to come into work and that would be catastrophic to those needing aid in hospitals. Hospital workers like myself are already very likely to get infected and have to take sick leave from COVID-19 (we are estimating we will lose 20% of staff to sick leave). Imagine losing a whole load more staff because they cant find carers for their kids at home. The system would crash.

What you should do is make sure you are fastidious about hand hygiene. Wash your hands. Dont touch your face. Avoid unnecessary contact. Try and work from home. Maybe stockpile a bunch of food so you dont have to go to the shops if you are quarantined. Also actually follow the goddam advice people give you. There are people coming up to fever clinic and not following the signs properly and going to the right waiting room (just barging into the ED). There are stupid dropkicks who get the test done and then go to the shops/cinemas/work etc whilst waiting for the result. These people aren't just your everyday average Nerangers but people who should know better like other doctors and nurses.

You should especially look out for those loved ones in nursing homes. Unfortunately nursing homes are the perfect kill site for this virus. Not to mention most nursing homes are a rort that employ the bare minimum of casual staff. Nursing homes are likely going to find it difficult to staff their wards; let alone quarantine effectively those that are unwell. Also expect hospitals to knock back nursing home patients if there is a bed squeeze. Hospitals are going to have to make difficult decisions on whether to accept some older folks from nursing homes vs younger (50-70ish) ill folks.

Interestingly there is probably going to be deaths indirectly related to COVID19. I work in cancer care. We are having some of our junior doctor and nursing staff re-directed to staffing flu clinics for COVID19. We are also cancelling and rebooking clinics and some are becoming telehealth clinics. This is likely going to impair how we deliver treatment for cancer patients and I am sure some cancer patients will pass on because of this. Not to mention there are people with cancer now who will avoid going to the GP/hospital because of COVID19 and thus will miss their diagnosis in the next few months.

We live in interesting times. In sum: its not going to be apocalyptic like the Spanish flu. If you are 40 and below its not likely to harm you or your children. If you are 40-70 and have some health problems you may face some trouble with a significant flu like symptoms. If you are 80 and above these are some troubling times as you are the perfect group for COVID19 deaths. A large number of the deaths is going to be from our health system and aged care not coping with the number of sick older folks needing hospitalisation. Being careful not to spread the disease will really help hospitals cope. The other thing you can do is actually follow the ******* advice and not be an absolute cretin with a she'll be right attitude and ignore quarantine instructions. So many aussies are a NIMBY/I got mine so kick the ladder away type who only care for number 1. They dont follow instructions and will cause this thing to spread really quickly. I feel bad for the lower SES people who are dependent on their paychecks to not be homeless. These people are really going to suffer from having to decide to quarantine or put food on the table. Hopefully the government steps in but I have no faith in this government (but I guess this is what we deserve for voting in a government who's only platform was magical tax cuts and not doing anything else apart from legalising bigotry against LGBT folk). There will be plenty of deaths amongst the older folks in Australia but the world will probably quickly return to normal in the next 6 months. We will probably enter a recession from this and the economic impacts will take longer to recover.

Far too balanced, considered and well argued for Big Footy; Mods this poster needs to be isolated for making sense.

 

[martinson]

Yeah of coarse. Some measures have been taken. Just, as your last sentence suggests, life is going on as usual in parts where the infection is present without turning those places into Wuhan.

It's too early to tell if we should be containing right now. I think its more about spreading it out over a number of months to avoid hospitals getting slammed, than killing or containing the virus.

If so - tactically doing forced containment in May (for example) with planning and warning might be the smart option, we just don't know.

It'll be interesting to see what happens as China slowly gets back to business after the most intensive shut downs possible - my guess is it will spread like crazy again... illogical at this stage to assume otherwise.

On the ground reports from China suggest that parts of Shanghai are in lockdown. Any numbers out of China should not be taken seriously . This is the country that silenced the 6 doctors who discovered the disease and were trying to get the message out there and start medical interventions/quarantines.

We have the opportunity to learn from that . Sadly it appears the US has taken a head in the sand approach as well.

 

[briztoon]

There was a photo/video that I saw of a metal door to an apartment block in China being welded shut supposedly as a containment action. Not/true who knows

Also was told of a report that a person who broke confinement in North Korea was executed. Again not/true who knows, but both scenarios are conceivable in those regimes but will not happen here or the US. If that’s what it takes, we are worse off than China.

Can only wait and see and hope we flatten the curve so all who need it can get treatment.

On a different virus - frontline health workers are getting two different flu vaccines this year which cover a total of 9 strains. Normally only one vaccine and 4/5 strains.
First One in April then again in august. Aiming to keep them healthy enough to care for those that need it. By the end of this we’ll owe them a beer or two.

I haven’t heard or read one report in regards to North Korea and the coronavirus.

That said, I mostly watch ABC news, and read a few articles from msm.

I also stay away from online comment sections for msm.

 

[Section 5]

Section 5 China has only reported ~80,000 cases with ~3000 deaths.

Looks like some of the figures you’ve been using were this mornings World total figures.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,239,149 Cases and 2,804,346 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Yes i finally found that article again and it is world figures.My mistake.
So all the % i worked out on China's population are incorrect.
In fact would that not make my .0082 % much lower using world population instead of China's ?.
Of course it has not fully spread throughout the world yet.

On these world figures of 121,171 cases with 4377 deaths so that's 3.61 % (dated 11/3/2020 @ 11.35 GMT)
The main countries mentioned. I have just listed the death % to confirmed cases
China 3.61%
Italy 6.2 %
Iran 3.9 %
South Korea 0.78%
Spain 2.27%
France 1.85%
Germany 0.18%
USA 3.07%
Japan 2.04%
Australia 2.36%

So Italy the outlier. Not sure about basically shutting down the country though.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,239,149 Cases and 2,804,346 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

So if Australia ends up with 3.6 % of deaths from cases what would that toll be ?.
If we delay the spread now and it coincides with the annual flu later what will the death toll be then?.

Lionraven's post was great and informative. Hygiene part especially the hands.
He also mentioned health staff being overwhelmed.Trying to contain it may very well push all the cases closer together and make it worse.

I know my way of thinking won't be taken up by any government.
Just my opinion.

 

[MSB ROYS]

I recommend reading STATNews, which is written by scientists, for their analysis. They are keeping all covid-19 articles open access.
For example this article, which also speculates that smoking could be a factor in Italy as previosly discussed in this thread:

What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.

www.statnews.com

 

[Saucery]

I recommend reading STATNews, which is written by scientists, for their analysis. They are keeping all covid-19 articles open access.
For example this article, which also speculates that smoking could be a factor in Italy as previosly discussed in this thread:

What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.

www.statnews.com

Great read, added the site to my favorites! This may seem like a weird trigger but for me when the reserve bank dropped interest rates due to CV and the banks passed on the rate cut instantly indicated the risk managers at the big end of town had $h1t themselves.

 

[Gadzorks]

I haven’t heard or read one report in regards to North Korea and the coronavirus.

That said, I mostly watch ABC news, and read a few articles from msm.

I also stay away from online comment sections for msm.

My son has been watching China closely. He’s fluent in mandarin so he reads their reports on some website or other.

 

[Gadzorks]

Wow don’t like this so much - from a Brisbane times article

 

[Saucery]

Wow don’t like this so much - from a Brisbane times article View attachment 837835

Premonition:

: Breaking the bad news early in all the kerfuffle > negative headlines later

: Empty Stadium < TV rights

: Team majorly compromised due to isolation = cancelled match (integrity of the game)

 

[MSB ROYS]

More info FYI.

 

[Caiphus]

Great read, added the site to my favorites! This may seem like a weird trigger but for me when the reserve bank dropped interest rates due to CV and the banks passed on the rate cut instantly indicated the risk managers at the big end of town had $h1t themselves.

Mate, margin loans are being foreclosed on. Economically it's not looking to be a quick recovery.

 

[FLVanLandingham]

In regards to the local elections coming up on the 28th, postal voting applications are open until the 16th, or check out some early voting locations which also open on the 16th to get in and out with minimal contact of nasty crowds

If they indeed go ahead, I know nothing really
Thanks to those knowledgeable folk who are keeping us updated with some rational information greatly appreciated

oh if only to live in the mountainous wilderness....

 

[lioninthesand]

How do people feel about their memberships and refunds if there is lock outs or cancelled games?

I have seen people positioning them selves to demand refunds on social media etc.

I wont be harassing the club for a refund if this eventually occurs.

I buy a membership to support the club first and foremost, the free GA admission is a bonus (I upgrade them half the time) and my financial suppirt will remain through this period.

It's not the club's fault.. I encourage other members to do the same. Last thing our club needs on top of everything else, is members harassing them for refunds.