Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

[Chief]

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Maylandsman]

Italy in particular has a quite a high smoking rate. It's estimated between 20-30% of adult males smoke and interestingly despite that they have 5th oldest population in the world by median age. Also high population density. It seems like it's the perfect storm for the virus to do the most damage.

What is our obesity rate? It isn’t just smokers and I think you will find we have a lot more pie eaters than the wogs. Diabetes is another worry.

 

[D-N-R]

I understand that, the point is to lock down, limit the cases and bring it under control. There will be flare ups but hopefully the health system is able to manage it. I’m not a doctor but I would have thought shutting down early and keeping the cases small is better than leaving it late when there’s already heaps of people carrying it. It seems to be the approach of other nations, including those that have been deemed successful.

That's the fine line with it working or not. I just think that time isn't now. I think you've been saying that we are approaching Italy in terms of numbers they were at a few weeks ago and we should shut-down now. My argument has been that we can't simply compare ourselves to Italy as they had a lot of cases in a small region, they live in more densely populated cities and towns, are very touchy when meeting and greeting, they are in winter, and many of our cases have come from OS, so shouldn't be really added to the exponential curve. There's a lot of variables which could make us much different to the way other countries are experiencing this.

We will have to be more stringent, although with our more spread out society this may not be as important. In a shut down, it is said that people will break the curfew anyway and this will cause some limited spread, which can be favourable if it is small. Shutting down, opening up, shutting down, opening up can lead to people getting tired of the measures and them becoming less effective as people completely ignore them.

I'm getting more concerned about NSW than anywhere. That cruise ship that came in and no-one was really checked is an absolute balls-up, and the Bondi incident was an appalling lack of concern at the situation we're in.

Also, I don't have a problem with the footy being played if the players are being diligent and avoiding contact with too many people. It's a nice distraction from all this.

 

[bzparkes]

Had an ICU doctor dine in the restaurant I manage tonight. Spoke with my waitress looking after him who is a qualified nurse waiting to start her placement.

His opinion; "We are ****ed"

Said we are woefully underprepared for what's coming and said their modelling indicates potentially a million cases nationwide by the end of April.

Personally I think that's an excessive number but looking at Bondi yesterday, people really are vastly underestimating the potential impact this thing is going to have.

 

[TDay]

Know a guy in border force. They are being briefed about the likely possibility of closing airports. Not sure if this will include domestic travel to private airports. 3 to 5 month timeline being given for the shutdown.

Perhaps if the SA, NSW, QLD teams set up a base in WA, we could have a season played in two conferences?
Would be kind of cool. AFL would have to move quick though.
I love how much love AFL is getting in the USA at the moment.

 

[Coaster2012]

This Flu is nowhere near as lethal as a gun. Tom Hanks and these guys are in so much pain! Let’s shut down the world forever. If this farce is still going in a month or two, people surely will see the worst case scenarios just haven’t happened. ‘30 people got coronavirus today’. Uh, okay. So what?

Because 30 can easily become 60 and 60 become 120 and then the medical industry cant cope.

Thats why so what. Surely you have grasped this by now?

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

What is our obesity rate? It isn’t just smokers and I think you will find we have a lot more pie eaters than the wogs. Diabetes is another worry.

I don't pretend to know how each health ailment affects the virus' severity. I just know that smoking seems to be a logical exacerbator to a respiratory illness.

Our diabetes rates are 5.55% population (global average is 8.8%). Italy is lower than us here but USA is double.
We're ranked 43rd for obesity while italy is ranked 92nd. USA ranked 16th

If obesity and diabetes make this worse then you don't wanna be USA right now...

 

[quotemokc]

Had an ICU doctor dine in the restaurant I manage tonight. Spoke with my waitress looking after him who is a qualified nurse waiting to start her placement.

His opinion; "We are f’ed"

Said we are woefully underprepared for what's coming and said their modelling indicates potentially a million cases nationwide by the end of April.

Personally I think that's an excessive number but looking at Bondi yesterday, people really are vastly underestimating the potential impact this thing is going to have.

Fearmongering.

 

[Max zero]

Stats are stats. Its the analysis from a moron I have issue with

Here is a study by people that are not morons pontificating from Mediums.com

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

They predicted, had the US taken no action, it would have killed approx 4 million in about 3 months.

And did they do nothing?

What is the point of looking at analysis of something that did not happen?

We have seen a bad response by Italy yet you focus on a scenario where the US does even worse?

Disaster pr0n at its finest.

 

[Light_Soda]

Had an ICU doctor dine in the restaurant I manage tonight. Spoke with my waitress looking after him who is a qualified nurse waiting to start her placement.

His opinion; "We are f’ed"

Said we are woefully underprepared for what's coming and said their modelling indicates potentially a million cases nationwide by the end of April.

Personally I think that's an excessive number but looking at Bondi yesterday, people really are vastly underestimating the potential impact this thing is going to have.

Hearsay.

 

[Light_Soda]

Because 30 can easily become 60 and 60 become 120 and then the medical industry cant cope.

Thats why so what. Surely you have grasped this by now?

What you seem to not have grasped is that 99% of cases in Australia are mild with some showing symptoms and some none at all, and have never needed "the medical industry" other than to be diagnosed - before being told to isolate at home and recover.

You seem to have this notion that all of these active cases are coming up and requiring ICU's - which is grossly false.

Active cases will rise. They are expected to rise. Anyone with a brain knows this number will rise. But the only thing this will do is prove how many mild cases there really are and will only make the mortality number/critical case number seem less disproportionate in the long term.

Active cases rise over time for literally ever other ailments and diseases, but you don't see us going crazy because we've grasped their true impact, and we focus not on the active cases, but the deaths, criticals and recoveries.

 

[Maylandsman]

If obesity and diabetes make this worse then you don't wanna be USA right now...

correct weight.

 

[bzparkes]

Fearmongering.

I'll just an actual doctor's opinion over an internet warrior any day.

 

[Max zero]

The mortality rate increases significantly if our hospitals become overwhelmed, which they will without strict quarantine measures.

Tell how many countries have had there hospital system collapse?

Italy is on the verge and Spain is a future contender. Anyone else?

Why do you always conclude not enough is being done? Will it ever be enough?

I swear we would have to under martial law locked in our houses eating military rations for some of you people to feel 'safe'.

 

[quotemokc]

I'll just an actual doctor's opinion over an internet warrior any day.

Can you confirm they were a doctor?

 

[Max zero]

Had an ICU doctor dine in the restaurant I manage tonight. Spoke with my waitress looking after him who is a qualified nurse waiting to start her placement.

His opinion; "We are f’ed"

Said we are woefully underprepared for what's coming and said their modelling indicates potentially a million cases nationwide by the end of April.

Personally I think that's an excessive number but looking at Bondi yesterday, people really are vastly underestimating the potential impact this thing is going to have.

Oh here we go.

A million cases by the end of April.

CHINA HAS NOT REACHED A MILLION FFS!

God what shit tier modelling it must be loved if they would share it. Let me guess 25% rate of increase continued indefinately with no slowdown? Because they is literally the only way to reach that by the end of April mathwise.

 

[bzparkes]

Can you confirm they were a doctor?

Well considering my employee knew of him and knew people he worked at at his hospital, I would safely say he wasn't bullshitting.

 

[Maylandsman]

Currently in WA we have 90 confirmed. Of those 89 are still active and the other one died.
Exponential growth is like a dripping tap and we are in the territory of scary growth and neck minute our ICU beds are full.
People not getting better anytime soon is a worry. When do you get the all clear and can go about getting it again?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Is it just me or do all of the gameday threads on the main board seem very quiet compared to this time last year?

Have the casuals checked out of the season?

 

[matty lloyd the champ]

Is it just me or do all of the gameday threads on the main board seem very quiet compared to this time last year?

Have the casuals checked out of the season?

Lack of interest in games due to circumstances and the high likelhood of the season counting for nothing any way.

 

[Max zero]

Currently in WA we have 90 confirmed. Of those 89 are still active and the other one died.
Exponential growth is like a dripping tap and we are in the territory of scary growth and neck minute our ICU beds are full.
People not getting better anytime soon is a worry. When do you get the all clear and can go about getting it again?

Recovery time is 2-4 weeks.

 

[Maylandsman]

Tell how many countries have had there hospital system collapse?

Italy is on the verge and Spain is a future contender. Anyone else?

Why do you always conclude not enough is being done? Will it ever be enough?

I swear we would have to under martial law locked in our houses eating military rations for some of you people to feel 'safe'.

The curve (flattened one) shows we will reach capacity in hospitals even with restrictions (whether enough is being done or not). Even under martial law. Just we will spend less time in that rarified air. That’s mathematics for you.

So yes there are a few contenders, in fact you could say certainties to join the list and their health systems pass their tipping points.

 

[Maylandsman]

Lack of interest in games due to circumstances and the high likelhood of the season counting for nothing any way.

Agreed and I have sneaky suspicions, whether we like it or not, that people have a few other things on their minds at the moment. This is consuming society and sport is like, yeh nah at the moment. Puts things into perspective as to what is important and where we should be placing our efforts.

 

[Max zero]

The curve (flattened one) shows we will reach capacity in hospitals even with restrictions (whether enough is being done or not). Even under martial law. Just we will spend less time in that rarified air. That’s mathematics for you.

So yes there are a few contenders, in fact you could say certainties to join the list and their health systems pass their tipping points.

We will see won't we?

Some are predicting the apocolypse. I am somewhat doubtful.

 

[Maylandsman]

We will see won't me?

Some are predicting the apocolypse. I am somewhat doubtful.

I think that’s the point. It isn’t we will see. It is, it will happen. Measures are in place to reduce the severity and let’s hope they work and we don’t hear the ‘in hindsight’ excuse.
The numbers don’t lie no matter how people want to spin it or bury their heads in the sand.
It will happen. Our medical system and others will burst at the seams. It is already happening.

 

[Coolangatta]

The curve (flattened one) shows we will reach capacity in hospitals even with restrictions (whether enough is being done or not). Even under martial law. Just we will spend less time in that rarified air. That’s mathematics for you.

So yes there are a few contenders, in fact you could say certainties to join the list and their health systems pass their tipping points.

Don't waste anymore time with this ****wit.