Cotchin & Martin v Murphy & Gibbs

[Top_4_Tiger]

"Upside" can certainly be abused by supporters with little to brag about. There is no debate about that.

It all depends to what extent it is used, and with how much performance to back it up. Sometimes it is fair and reasonable to factor in a 19yo top 3 draft pick's upside, especially with several BOG performances already to his name.

For example, GWS did it with Scully, and you would consider that low risk. As long as supporters don't talk about "the next Judd" with absolutely no form to back it up, then when used responsibly it is okay to factor in "upside".

It's not accurate though, in either direction positive or negative. Dusty could be the best of the lot too - most are rating him the 3rd best based on current form. I think next year will really help judge whether his upside is justified, for better or worse.

 

[BomberJacqui]

Martin reminds me of a big kid who has the body to play AFL first year that everyone thinks will improve immensely, going by the gets better with age theory, but may just stay at exactly the same level he is now(Daniel Rich)

Martin had a massive improvement in 2011 if he has another massive improvement he will already be a top grade midfielder.

 

[Richo83]

Looking at the Brownlow votes is a dumb way to look at it. Carlton is currently a much better side than Richmond. Gibbs and Murphy had muc more competition within th eside able to take votes off them, Judd being the most noticeable . The richmond pair had no one taking the votes off them. Put judd, scotland, simpson, robinson in your side and I guarantee that Martin and cotchin would not have ended up with the same numbers.

Actually, they probably would have given the side they played in would have won more games, ergo more votes going to the winning side. The top ten brownlow vote winners are mostly from top eight sides.

My point being and I'm not wishing this apon anyone, but lets just say that Cotchin again has to battle through injury next year and or Martin does an ACL. I just don't think that these hypothetical player & player vs player & player type scenarios are a pointless exercise until the end of their careers.

This is a hypothetical argument amounting to "but if Cotchin gets injured then he slips". Well duh. If he stays fit he rises. To me, Cotchin and Murphy are equal, it's up to Martin (who is far from injury prone so far) and Gibbs. I prefer the Martin style player. Even if Carlton fans reckon their players are better, I dear hope they don't dredge up any "Cotchin is injury prone" stuff. In reality, he played all this season, all last season bar a rest game and suspension.

 

[Richo83]

The danger when comparing established players with younger ones still on the improve. Fans invariably consider the best case scenario of what may eventuate with the young players.

True, however both Cotchin and Martin were very impressive players, let alone very impressive young players.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Actually, they probably would have given the side they played in would have won more games, ergo more votes going to the winning side. The top ten brownlow vote winners are mostly from top eight sides.



This is a hypothetical argument amounting to "but if Cotchin gets injured then he slips". Well duh. If he stays fit he rises. To me, Cotchin and Murphy are equal, it's up to Martin (who is far from injury prone so far) and Gibbs. I prefer the Martin style player. Even if Carlton fans reckon their players are better, I dear hope they don't dredge up any "Cotchin is injury prone" stuff. In reality, he played all this season, all last season bar a rest game and suspension.

Ummm really?

Murphy just made AA (having previously been in the squad), polled in the equal most games in the Brownlow (showing his awesome consistency) and had a complete break out season.

Cotchin, while having a good year, is not up to Murphy's standard yet, and while he may reach there, and certainly has the potential to, isn't there yet.

 

[Dumpstar]

Murphy and Gibbs. No bias, obviously.

 

[scomac]

It is BS these threads but in all honesty i think give it 12 more months bump the thread and if Richmond beat Carlton i am prepared to listen.

 

[blues4flag]

True, however both Cotchin and Martin were very impressive players, let alone very impressive young players.

Without a doubt, and if not for my bias, I'm not sure which way I would lean. Cotchin is an absolute gem - a footballer's footballer, who wins his own ball and uses it brilliantly. Martin is a genuine game breaker, with strength and explosiveness that belies his age.

There's no doubt that all four will end up very good footballers, but only Murphy is really at the top of his game. The thing that seems to be separating the other three is more people think that Cotch and Martin will fulfill their potential than Gibbs will. If you asked me who you'd rather between Murphy and Gibbs, I honestly couldn't answer. Has genuine claims to being our best footballer after Murphy and Judd over the past three seasons. Competing with Simpson and Scotland for that honour.

 

[Tiger Titus]

I wish the Carlton recuiting team was made up of Big Footy armchair experts! The underrating of Gibbs in this thread is extreme! Please trade him to us for our 1st round compo pick, apparently that's fair market value! (cough, bullshit)

I think neither clubs would be interested in a swap and that's fair enough.

As a Tigers fan I hope Martin continues his upward projection and becomes the Leigh Matthews style uber-champ the media likes to hype every now and again. I'm also very happy with Cotch's year and hope he continues to improve. I voted for these two (bias much?)

However, Carlton fans are well within their rights to sit on Murphy's form from this year and tell everyone else to piss off. And anyone who doesn't think Gibbs is tracking alongside my Tigers pair is a dope.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Well the B&F results for both clubs do little to resolve comparisons between the 4 (or 6 if we include Judd and Deledio as the elder statesment in comparison)

Richmond 1st Cotchin 2nd Deledio 3rd Martin
Carlton 1st Murphy 2nd Judd 3rd Gibbs

Middle gun, older gun, younger gun for both sides.

 

[forwardflanker]

The odd one out is Gibbs. The other three players are all more talented and dont shirk the contest. Gibbs shirks the contest regularly and his output and value is not in the same plain as the other 3. For a bloke who was touted as a once in a generation player his selection at no.1 is turning out to be a bit of a flop (not carltons fault though, everyone was going to pick him at 1.)

 

[BlueDW]

The odd one out is Gibbs. The other three players are all more talented and dont shirk the contest. Gibbs shirks the contest regularly and his output and value is not in the same plain as the other 3. For a bloke who was touted as a once in a generation player his selection at no.1 is turning out to be a bit of a flop (not carltons fault though, everyone was going to pick him at 1.)

I would argue the odd one out is Murphy, he is the only bona fide elite player of the group. That said it is a ridiculous pole, as said in a previous post, Murph and Gibbbs 1 and 3 in Carltons B&F, ditto for Cotchin and Martin at the Tiges. One significant difference, a lot more competition for votes at Carlton.

The under valuing of Gibbs on BF is extreme.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

The odd one out is Gibbs. The other three players are all more talented and dont shirk the contest. Gibbs shirks the contest regularly and his output and value is not in the same plain as the other 3. For a bloke who was touted as a once in a generation player his selection at no.1 is turning out to be a bit of a flop (not carltons fault though, everyone was going to pick him at 1.)

Absolute rubbish. Gibbs does not shirk the contest regularly. I mean players have been suspended for hitting Gibbs high as his head was over the ball. The best part of his game is finding space for himself to work in. That was the talk about him when he was a junior too. Not overly quick but time stands still around him. Sometimes he judges the play and stays out of a contest, but mainly because others are in it and he is trying to be the setup player. That Milne video has been overrated by his detractors if anything. He's no Robinson but he is hardly scared of contact.

What of his output by the way? Pretty sound stats for a player that has not going into the centre square as much as a couple of the others? How many of them would play on Goodes or Pavlich and do well?

Not in the same plane .... he's right up there with these guys and you'd have to be trolling to make such an outlandish statement.

He's not a pure midfielder like the others, that's true. Many of us would like him to be. But as a utility his value is greater than any of the other 3. There is no place for denigration here. It's just plain ignorant.

 

[Richo83]

Ummm really?

Murphy just made AA (having previously been in the squad), polled in the equal most games in the Brownlow (showing his awesome consistency) and had a complete break out season.

Cotchin, while having a good year, is not up to Murphy's standard yet, and while he may reach there, and certainly has the potential to, isn't there yet.

I didn't say Cotchin had performed as well as Murphy, I said they were equal. In the sense that they have very similar attributes and qualities, and all things being equal, will have similar quality careers. Unless Cotchin encounters a bout of terrible injuries, I don't see him drifting into an average player. For the same reason I believe that Murphy is equal to say Mitchell and will become to his level in say 3-4 years.

This attitude that one cannot compare a younger player to an older player and call them equal is silly. It's like saying one cannot say Watson and Black are equal because Black's been around longer. I believe that staying fit, Cotchin will have a similar year in his sixth year that Murphy did this year. He'a got all the skills and the head to do it. As I pointed out before, Cotchin and Murphy's fourth years are very similar.

Without a doubt, and if not for my bias, I'm not sure which way I would lean. Cotchin is an absolute gem - a footballer's footballer, who wins his own ball and uses it brilliantly. Martin is a genuine game breaker, with strength and explosiveness that belies his age.

This is why I think we can honestly pick the Richmond pair, such is their talent and exposed form. As people are assuming Murphy and Gibbs will improve from extrapolation, I'm assuming the same of Cotchin. Cotchin has the maturity. Martin has the arrogance.

The thing that seems to be separating the other three is more people think that Cotch and Martin will fulfill their potential than Gibbs will.

I know others will. I wont. The main issues for me for Gibbs is that we already have a Gibbs in Deledio who are very similar players. Now the response could be "why not two?" but we haven't had a Martin type in years, an arrogant tough thinks he's the best player on the park type player in ages. Martin reminds me of Greg Williams, both in the body shape of sorts, the embracing of the tough stuff but mostly the arrogance. Now is Martin as good as Williams? I'd love him to become like him, but at the moment no. But the attitude is there. And that attitude of confidence, of arrogance is infectious. When you don't think you're better, you "know" you're better, sometimes you've already won the mental battle. Belief is an important thing, and the game is largely between the shoulders.

 

[Blue and Silver]

I didn't say Cotchin had performed as well as Murphy, I said they were equal. In the sense that they have very similar attributes and qualities, and all things being equal, will have similar quality careers. Unless Cotchin encounters a bout of terrible injuries, I don't see him drifting into an average player. For the same reason I believe that Murphy is equal to say Mitchell and will become to his level in say 3-4 years.

This attitude that one cannot compare a younger player to an older player and call them equal is silly. It's like saying one cannot say Watson and Black are equal because Black's been around longer. I believe that staying fit, Cotchin will have a similar year in his sixth year that Murphy did this year. He'a got all the skills and the head to do it. As I pointed out before, Cotchin and Murphy's fourth years are very similar.

I understand that you are projecting over careers, but as I said in my original post, Cotchin certainly has the ability to reach Murphy's level, but as of right now, hasn't and it is therefore inaccurate to portray them as equal.

On the Watson, Black comparison, Watson is currently 26, at that age Black had 3 premierships, 2 best and fairests, a Brownlow and a Norm Smith.

Simon Black was a much better player then we remember him for being, better than Jobe is now at least.

 

[forwardflanker]

Absolute rubbish. Gibbs does not shirk the contest regularly. I mean players have been suspended for hitting Gibbs high as his head was over the ball. The best part of his game is finding space for himself to work in. That was the talk about him when he was a junior too. Not overly quick but time stands still around him. Sometimes he judges the play and stays out of a contest, but mainly because others are in it and he is trying to be the setup player. That Milne video has been overrated by his detractors if anything. He's no Robinson but he is hardly scared of contact.

What of his output by the way? Pretty sound stats for a player that has not going into the centre square as much as a couple of the others? How many of them would play on Goodes or Pavlich and do well?

Not in the same plane .... he's right up there with these guys and you'd have to be trolling to make such an outlandish statement.

He's not a pure midfielder like the others, that's true. Many of us would like him to be. But as a utility his value is greater than any of the other 3. There is no place for denigration here. It's just plain ignorant.

Look I think he's a pretty good player but to say he's in the class of the other 3 is ridiculous. Even you agree that Gibbs stays well away from the inside ball and that where the difference lies between him and the other 3. Cotchin, Martin and Murphy can both play very competently inside and out skirting packs whereas you could only say that Gibbs is on a decent level in the latter. Also for a bloke who is regarded as having elite disposal I have seen Gibbs make some horrible misses and mistakes in big games this season, in contrast to the other 3 who are already appearing to embrace those situations. Good player but never going to be an out and out gun of the AFL like the other 3.

 

[blues4flag]

Look I think he's a pretty good player but to say he's in the class of the other 3 is ridiculous. Even you agree that Gibbs stays well away from the inside ball and that where the difference lies between him and the other 3. Cotchin, Martin and Murphy can both play very competently inside and out skirting packs whereas you could only say that Gibbs is on a decent level in the latter. Also for a bloke who is regarded as having elite disposal I have seen Gibbs make some horrible misses and mistakes in big games this season, in contrast to the other 3 who are already appearing to embrace those situations. Good player but never going to be an out and out gun of the AFL like the other 3.

He's finished 3rd, 4th, 3rd and 5th in our best and fairest in the last four seasons. Just behind Judd this season, and had he played the last final every chance to have finished 2nd, given his record against WC.

The previous season behind only Judd, Russell (who polled the most votes of any player in the last half of the season) and Murphy. Year before that behind only Judd and Murphy, ahead of Fevola. 5th in his 2nd season at the club.

Think of him what you will but he's without doubt one of our most valuable and versatile players, who's clearly highly valued by the MC. The only issue with his disposal is that he has a tendency to just throw the ball onto his boot in stoppage situations but happened less as the season progressed. He is brilliant by hand, makes his own space and rarely wastes a disposal by foot.

He also kicked 17 goals 12 behinds in his last 12 games of the season.

He kicked 14 goals 9 behinds in the last 7 games, while averaging 24 touches a game. Coincides with him moving to a HFF/midfield role.

 

[GordonBlue]

The under valuing of Gibbs on BF is extreme.

And I would like to bring to your attention this said location "BF" approximately 12 months ago!

The words Murphy and not worth pick 1, down hill skier, soft, shirks contests etc was all too common...

In other words, get your money and place it on Gibbs for our B&F next year!

 

[deledio7]

As far as impacting a game I would take the Richmond pair now an in the future. Over the season I would take the Blues pair but going forward I couldn't say no to Cotchin and Martin.

 

[HARKER]

Look I think he's a pretty good player but to say he's in the class of the other 3 is ridiculous. Even you agree that Gibbs stays well away from the inside ball and that where the difference lies between him and the other 3. Cotchin, Martin and Murphy can both play very competently inside and out skirting packs whereas you could only say that Gibbs is on a decent level in the latter. Also for a bloke who is regarded as having elite disposal I have seen Gibbs make some horrible misses and mistakes in big games this season, in contrast to the other 3 who are already appearing to embrace those situations. Good player but never going to be an out and out gun of the AFL like the other 3.

There were times through the middle of the year that he just seemed to play more of an outside role, which I recall questioning, yet that was certainly not the case in the latter half of the year.

It just seems that Gibbs needs to spit blood & teeth in order for some to take him seriously.
A classy player in the mould of a Goddard rather than a Hodge.
There are roles for both players and you'll be wrong in suggesting that he won't be a gun, as he is already and will only get better.

 

[Richo83]

I understand that you are projecting over careers, but as I said in my original post, Cotchin certainly has the ability to reach Murphy's level, but as of right now, hasn't and it is therefore inaccurate to portray them as equal.

We're seeing projections of Murphy and Gibbs. Why not Cotchin and Martin? In terms of equality, they have roughly similar skill sets.

On the Watson, Black comparison, Watson is currently 26, at that age Black had 3 premierships, 2 best and fairests, a Brownlow and a Norm Smith.

Simon Black was a much better player then we remember him for being, better than Jobe is now at least.

It was an example of the dangers of saying "he's not the same, he hasn't played nearly as many matches as older player x!" It wasn't supposed to be taken literally.

To use a more apt comparison, it's like saying say in 2007 that you couldn't say that Franklin was equal or better than Richardson (Franklin is quite similar to Richardson, both athletically gifted talented talls with kicking problems who often play like a midfielder in a KPP's body, Richardson was a better contested mark, Franklin can dominate games easier) because Richardson had achieved more. Yes, he technically had, but that doesn't nullify the argument.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

We're seeing projections of Murphy and Gibbs. Why not Cotchin and Martin? In terms of equality, they have roughly similar skill sets.



It was an example of the dangers of saying "he's not the same, he hasn't played nearly as many matches as older player x!" It wasn't supposed to be taken literally.

To use a more apt comparison, it's like saying say in 2007 that you couldn't say that Franklin was equal or better than Richardson (Franklin is quite similar to Richardson, both athletically gifted talented talls with kicking problems who often play like a midfielder in a KPP's body, Richardson was a better contested mark, Franklin can dominate games easier) because Richardson had achieved more. Yes, he technically had, but that doesn't nullify the argument.

Good comparision! In 2007 Franklin hadn't achieved anything as a footballer, but you could clearly see his ability. Now by 24, Franklin has already achieved more than Matthew Richardson did in his whole career in terms of individual accolades.

Same could happen with Martin & Cotchin in relation to Murphy. I have a feeling Cotchin could be the best out of the lot. Murphy has been the best so far, but Cotchin looks like a GAJ protege. Guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

We're seeing projections of Murphy and Gibbs. Why not Cotchin and Martin? In terms of equality, they have roughly similar skill sets.



It was an example of the dangers of saying "he's not the same, he hasn't played nearly as many matches as older player x!" It wasn't supposed to be taken literally.

To use a more apt comparison, it's like saying say in 2007 that you couldn't say that Franklin was equal or better than Richardson (Franklin is quite similar to Richardson, both athletically gifted talented talls with kicking problems who often play like a midfielder in a KPP's body, Richardson was a better contested mark, Franklin can dominate games easier) because Richardson had achieved more. Yes, he technically had, but that doesn't nullify the argument.

It is fine to project forward, but many are doing so with a view that Murphy and Gibbs have peaked as far as how good they are going to be, while offering an opinion, almost as fact, that Martin and Cotchin will be better.

I have no problem saying that we have four footballers with the potential to become elite but you are talking semantics and guesswork when you start saying one duo is going to be better than the other duo. You would have better luck looking at those skill sets, pointing out the positives and negatives of each player to give some real credence to that opinion.

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

Absolute rubbish. Gibbs does not shirk the contest regularly. I mean players have been suspended for hitting Gibbs high as his head was over the ball. The best part of his game is finding space for himself to work in. That was the talk about him when he was a junior too. Not overly quick but time stands still around him. Sometimes he judges the play and stays out of a contest, but mainly because others are in it and he is trying to be the setup player. That Milne video has been overrated by his detractors if anything. He's no Robinson but he is hardly scared of contact.

This is probably a fair post regarding perceptions of Gibbs' shirking issues.

He doesn't disregard his safety like a Selwood might to win a ball, instead he is more calculated with when he goes and when he doesn't. Further to that, when he judges it to be most effective to put his head over it, he will do it - just not as regularly or as ferociously as the other 3. This is seen as a weakness by many, but it is also smart football and you will see him play 300-350 games because his body won't be shot by the time he hits 30.

I would say Cotchin has the most disregard for his body out of this group and I hope he can play past 30, plus he hasn't got going until 21.

You want more than 9 years of service (if injury free from now on) by your star players. Gibbs will provide 15 years service. Hopefully we see a trend of older players being more valuable in the future - I am not a fan of the current attitudes held towards anybody who hits 30. If the AFL could cause the star retirement age to rise to 35 then everybody benefits, pay disputes will also be easier to resolve due to a longer career prospect for players - might need to implement some new rules to help older players be valuable to their team though...

 

[Tish]

Hard to comparison, easy to stand out in a terrible team like Richmond, hard to stand out in a side like Carlton who is climbing the ladder.

Murphy alone is higher than both Martin and Cotchin right now.