COVID-19 / Coronavirus

[thejockey]

If it doesn’t work, they will have to confine people to homes so tell everyone you know to practice social distancing and stay home it sick.

Understand that . And I know people with more intelligence then me have made that call for now.

But I don't see the logic in it and how it will effectively work , given that example there.

 

[Brishawk]

I’m not a science nerd, but I don’t need to be one to understand a 600 case increase in 3 Weeks (you do the %) is substantiated enough to call it “exponential”.

Bris, so with that sharp rise, how has the CFR fared? We have had exponential growth and no increase in CFR, in fact, it’s gone backwards.. sharply.

If the people getting infected are from a group that is young and less likely to have preexisting conditions the cfr will fall. The people most likely to take risks and ignore social distancing are young people with no preexisting conditions. Do you think 70 year old asthmatic, diabetic people are screwing security guards while in quarantine? No, it’s younger people who think they are in a low risk group.

this means the people who are getting sick are not independent of the risk of dying from covid-19. This is a form of selection bias. As I said, if you don’t understand this you do not understand a fundamental concept of science that is required in order to interpret these numbers.

This is about the fourth time I have pointed this out to you so at this point I must conclude you are being will fully ignorant or are a fraud simply interested in pushing an agenda. So which is it Tigie? Don’t want to know the truth or just don’t care for it?

 

[Brishawk]

Understand that . And I know people with more intelligence then me have made that call for now.

But I don't see the logic in it and how it will effectively work , given that example there.

It is about lowering probability of transmission, not eliminating the possibility. It is risk management not eliminating risk. If you lower the probability of transmission it makes track and trace a lot easier and effective. If you get sick and can only go to work and shops (with shops being relatively low risk for customers due to short time spent in any one place) then it is easy to figure out where you got it and who else might have it.

 

[thejockey]

It is about lowering probability of transmission, not eliminating the possibility. It is risk management not eliminating risk. If you lower the probability of transmission it makes track and trace a lot easier and effective. If you get sick and can only go to work and shops (with shops being relatively low risk for customers due to short time spent in any one place) then it is easy to figure out where you got it and who else might have it.

I do get why they are doing it , just don't think it will be effective .

 

[Messenger]

Messenger finds it funny... Move along.

It's just the Internet maaaaaaan

Now you’re getting it.

 

[Messenger]

So you didn’t act on the multiple reports of Taitas constant abuse? Are you happy for me to post screen grabs of them, there’s plenty.

They were responded to by another mod. And no you won’t be reposting them.

 

[tige19]

If the people getting infected are from a group that is young and less likely to have preexisting conditions the cfr will fall. The people most likely to take risks and ignore social distancing are young people with no preexisting conditions. Do you think 70 year old asthmatic, diabetic people are screwing security guards while in quarantine? No, it’s younger people who think they are in a low risk group.

this means the people who are getting sick are not independent of the risk of dying from covid-19. This is a form of selection bias. As I said, if you don’t understand this you do not understand a fundamental concept of science that is required in order to interpret these numbers.

This is about the fourth time I have pointed this out to you so at this point I must conclude you are being will fully ignorant or are a fraud simply interested in pushing an agenda. So which is it Tigie? Don’t want to know the truth or just don’t care for it?

I deal with the facts presented, not the micro analysis that you like to use to try and spin a story Bris. Did you have a look at the actuality of age breakdowns for Covid? Or are you just presuming things? Yes those millennials are represented as the highest % of cohorts contracting the virus, but that doesn’t excuse those in the older age range who make up a huge % of cases, both new and old.

So why don’t we have a 1% CFR? Old and young age getting the virus, statistics say as much.

 

[tige19]

They were responded to by another mod. And no you won’t be reposting them.

Happy to abide

 

[Gralin]

I’m not a science nerd, but I don’t need to be one to understand a 600 case increase in 3 Weeks (you do the %) is substantiated enough to call it “exponential”.

Bris, so with that sharp rise, how has the CFR fared? We have had exponential growth and no increase in CFR, in fact, it’s gone backwards.. sharply.

Last week we had 9 people in hospital and one in the ICU
Yesterday we had 23 in hospital and 6 in ICU

If you paid attention you'd know that there is a lag between symptoms and finding out whether the person is going to have it mild or not.

We've got 442 active cases so over 1% of them are on ventilators and about 5% are in hospital.

 

[Gralin]

I deal with the facts presented, not the micro analysis that you like to use to try and spin a story Bris. Did you have a look at the actuality of age breakdowns for Covid? Or are you just presuming things? Yes those millennials are represented as the highest % of cohorts contracting the virus, but that doesn’t excuse those in the older age range who make up a huge % of cases, both new and old.

So why don’t we have a 1% CFR? Old and young age getting the virus, statistics say as much.

View attachment 905646

How many cases have we had total and how many deaths total?

 

[MightyHawks]

Understand that . And I know people with more intelligence then me have made that call for now.

But I don't see the logic in it and how it will effectively work , given that example there.

Maybe a significant number of the people who have it at the moment are unemployed?

Maybe they are going with this option first and will extend it to work if they need to.

Maybe they thought people would be more accepting of the out of area work ban if they try this first

 

[Gralin]

So this is why the postcode lockdown and do's and dont's have little logic to me.

Yesterday we had our branch meeting , not in hot spot area.
12 employees , all social distance etc
7 from non hot spot areas
5 from hot spot areas

I just don't see how that can be logical solution. People ( myself ) from hot spots can travel for work through and too hot spot and non hot spot areas .

Yet now its the weekend , I can only go to the shops if it's essential but thats really it.

The other guys at work have limitations but can see friends/family , go to a cafe etc .
After they have been working with people from hot spots.

I know there isnt a perfect solution ( bar vaccine ) but really how is this scenerio helping .

Was there a need to have a branch meeting in person though? Do you all work together like that normally?

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Does anyone know how to get the average deaths per month for Australia (from all causes) ?

I tried to find it... to no avail.

To me, the amount of uplift in the average since Feb would show the effect of the virus.

 

[MightyHawks]

Does anyone know how to get the average deaths per month for Australia (from all causes) ?

I tried to find it... to no avail.

To me, the amount of uplift in the average since Feb would show the effect of the virus.

I've seen charts previously - there's no hidden increase in deaths.

Hospitals are quiet here too - ask anyone you know in the hospital system

 

[phlogiston]

I don’t even know who you are, new?

My post makes sense, it’s you who does not understand.

The use of ventilators covers many health ailments that effect breathing and lungs, the use of ventilators is a mechanism or treatment, it is not the virus. The overwhelming majority of people will never need a ventilator, thus there’s no point in making a direct correlation to Covid. I was asking, what literature is there that shows Covid causes long term health issues as a matter of fact? Particularly because 90% will never need hospitalisation or further treatment.

People/professionals (so called professionals) have simply guessed their way through this, embarrassingly so I might add.

Stop making fools of yourself and accept you know 2c of bugger all, the hypothesis going on is simply dart throwing.

So you’re asking for a study into long-term effects on a disease that's 6 months old, and this makes sense? OK.

In terms of you haughtily not knowing who I am and some of your other comments, I'm here for a decent discussion and trying to learn more, not your patronising put downs of anyone who doesn't openly share your hatred for Dan Andrews.

Condescending arrogance is usually compensation for other issues. Sort it out yourself, pal, I'm not your therapist.

 

[phlogiston]

If the people getting infected are from a group that is young and less likely to have preexisting conditions the cfr will fall. The people most likely to take risks and ignore social distancing are young people with no preexisting conditions. Do you think 70 year old asthmatic, diabetic people are screwing security guards while in quarantine? No, it’s younger people who think they are in a low risk group.

this means the people who are getting sick are not independent of the risk of dying from covid-19. This is a form of selection bias. As I said, if you don’t understand this you do not understand a fundamental concept of science that is required in order to interpret these numbers.

This is about the fourth time I have pointed this out to you so at this point I must conclude you are being will fully ignorant or are a fraud simply interested in pushing an agenda. So which is it Tigie? Don’t want to know the truth or just don’t care for it?

Bris, interested in your thoughts on what role Simpson's paradox has to play with the interpretation of numbers in Aus. My suspicion is that with only one area of spike (in Vic) it's probably not relevant here, but it certainly explains the so-called declinign death rate in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox

P

 

[Argy]

Another guess, dart throw, all done with your eyes shut. Just stop it.

We have had “exponential” growth in Victoria the last 4 weeks, we have had 1 death, it’s far less than 1% (Let alone the inherently ridiculous 5% you mentioned) as a CFR. Stop talking complete and utter tripe.

I have no idea what you are talking about. You certainly aren't talking about COVID-19.

The WHO estimates the COVID-19 morbidity rate world-wide is 3.5%. It is higher in countries whose medical systems are overwhelmed and lower in countries whose medical systems are coping.

Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

​

When unchecked, the spread of COVID-19 is exponential. Without imposing social measures to limit the spread, it would overwhelm our health system in weeks - meaning the morbidity rate could easily exceed 5% - and in a year it could easily kill one and a half million Australians.

This is not a conspiracy and the earth is not flat.

 

[Argy]

I’m not a science nerd,

Quoted for accuracy.

 

[Argy]

Bris, interested in your thoughts on what role Simpson's paradox has to play with the interpretation of numbers in Aus. My suspicion is that with only one area of spike (in Vic) it's probably not relevant here, but it certainly explains the so-called declinign death rate in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox

P

Thanks for pointing that out phlogiston. I hadn't heard of that phenomenon before. Nonetheless, given the rapid increase in infections in the US in the last couple of weeks, I would be surprised if their death rate did not start to increase.

 

[tige19]

I have no idea what you are talking about. You certainly aren't talking about COVID-19.

The WHO estimates the COVID-19 morbidity rate world-wide is 3.5%. It is higher in countries whose medical systems are overwhelmed and lower in countries whose medical systems are coping.

Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 905669​

When unchecked, the spread of COVID-19 is exponential. Without imposing social measures to limit the spread, it would overwhelm our health system in weeks - meaning the morbidity rate could easily exceed 5% - and in a year it could easily kill one and a half million Australians.

This is not a conspiracy and the earth is not flat.

Didn’t realise we live everywhere side other than Australia. Our landscape, density and geographic location makes us a different case altogether.

Let’s deal with facts associated with our country, makes sense right?

 

[tige19]

Last week we had 9 people in hospital and one in the ICU
Yesterday we had 23 in hospital and 6 in ICU

If you paid attention you'd know that there is a lag between symptoms and finding out whether the person is going to have it mild or not.

We've got 442 active cases so over 1% of them are on ventilators and about 5% are in hospital.

So how many have died?

 

[tige19]

Japan is a brilliant country.. They do not buy into the alarmist rubbish, they take a statistical and analytical approach, they don’t don’t lose their collective shit over a virus that 99% of people will survive. Total number of fatalities have dropped in 2020, no lockdown, no enforcement of draconian measures, just common sense.

Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate — BBC News

Japan had no lockdown, it has an elderly population - so why haven't more people died from Covid-19?

apple.news

 

[Hawk Dork]

Japan is a brilliant country.. They do not buy into the alarmist rubbish, they take a statistical and analytical approach, they don’t don’t lose their collective sh*t over a virus that 99% of people will survive. Total number of fatalities have dropped in 2020, no lockdown, no enforcement of draconian measures, just common sense.

Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate — BBC News

Japan had no lockdown, it has an elderly population - so why haven't more people died from Covid-19?

apple.news

A nation full of people who obey rules and think of the greater good for the nation
Also natural mask wearers who are meticulously clean

 

[thejockey]

Was there a need to have a branch meeting in person though? Do you all work together like that normally?

Fair question . 5 are office based admin etc . They are well spaced out and have been working from home at times depending on needs. But majority they need to be at office.

5 of us are consultants including me . Won't bore with the details but we deal with some large bulky stuff , a lot of our clients are high needs and require very specific set up etc
There is no way around us having to come in and load up drop off etc .

The other two have to be there also as they set up etc the equipment for us .

Was probably a poor example but just trying to illustrate the challenge of this postcode hotspot lockdown

 

[Gralin]

So how many have died?

At the moment in Vic 20 out of 1924 cases with a resolution.
So what's the CFR?