Malibu#27
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
List Mgmt. Dan Houston requests trade to Victoria - will stay if deal can't be done
- Thread starter Ford Fairlane
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Port get 13, F1, Luko, Richards, give up Houston, F2 and F3
Pies get Houston and F3, give up F1, F2 Noble
Suns get Noble, 2 F2s, Give up Luko and 13
Think that's as fair as it gets tbh. I know Pies can't trade F1 and F2 but they'll need to figure that out in another way. Maybe trade their current 2nd round pick into the future.
But ends up with:
Houston for 13 and F1 (Pies)
Luko for F2 (Pies)
Richards for F3
Noble and F2 (Port) for 13
I have us finishing above Pies next year (not by much) so I think Luko for Pies' F2 would be fair value and Noble + our F2 for 13 is also around the range.
We should be pushing hard for this deal and do it on the last hour
Pies get Houston and F3, give up F1, F2 Noble
Suns get Noble, 2 F2s, Give up Luko and 13
Think that's as fair as it gets tbh. I know Pies can't trade F1 and F2 but they'll need to figure that out in another way. Maybe trade their current 2nd round pick into the future.
But ends up with:
Houston for 13 and F1 (Pies)
Luko for F2 (Pies)
Richards for F3
Noble and F2 (Port) for 13
I have us finishing above Pies next year (not by much) so I think Luko for Pies' F2 would be fair value and Noble + our F2 for 13 is also around the range.
We should be pushing hard for this deal and do it on the last hour
At this point I just anticipate this cuck club doing the most pissweak thing at every possible point.
Time for Dan to do another tour of Arden St or he can stay at Alberton.
Collingwood can EAD.
Collingwood can EAD.
And 11 years ago we let Stevens walk for free because we didn't want him to boost a potential contender in Collingwood.
Accepting Dan to Collingwood for unders appease him would be such a loser mindset.
Accepting Dan to Collingwood for unders appease him would be such a loser mindset.
Butters and Pepper
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That was 21 years ago.
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Port haven't mentioned anything about choosing anyone and won't be entertaining offers before Luko and Richards are done
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Agreed, as you say it's important to get Soldo off the books but hopefully we get something half decent for him and don't just let a bloke who signed a 3 year contract less than a year ago walk for a bargain basement deal.
As suggested (no doubt tongue in cheek) by Jimmy of the cans it could be interesting to see the club play hard ball with a bloke who has stuffed us around like him because they clearly have the upper hand, but we know that won't happen and who will blink first.
The Suns have already rejected the Pies trade offer of next year's first for both picks 13 & 23.
They would not give up BOTH Luko & pick 13 for peanuts.
The AFL have told Port they won’t need special approval to trade their future first pick.
We should trade it to GC for Luko and pick 23 or 29 back to us, removing Dan from any deals for Luko.
Where the Pies are fast running out of Chips.
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Just do the following:
Port In: 13, 23, Lukosius, Richards
Out: Houston, F1
I’d be okay with that in the end.
Port In: 13, 23, Lukosius, Richards
Out: Houston, F1
I’d be okay with that in the end.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
You can see why the media runs their Victorian protection rackets, it obviously ****ing works. The fact that so many of you seem to somehow be okay with swapping contracted dual AA Houston for fringe player Lukosius without bringing in a single extra first rounder is testament to that.
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Basically just swapping our 25 first for a 24 first and then trading Houston for 23, Luko and Richards. That would be ridiculous
Take out 23 and F1
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- Mar 26, 2007
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I really hate the idea of Houston for 13, Luko and Richards.
Basically a couple junk 2nd/3rd rounders + 13 for Houston seems a shit deal to me.
Luko and Richards involved in the same deal as Houston really dilutes our return big time. Clearly we're going to struggle to get what we want for Houston IMO, so I'd be walking away.
Basically a couple junk 2nd/3rd rounders + 13 for Houston seems a shit deal to me.
Luko and Richards involved in the same deal as Houston really dilutes our return big time. Clearly we're going to struggle to get what we want for Houston IMO, so I'd be walking away.
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Lukos salery dump is pick 13. We can work out the finer details but we want 13.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
And yet it sounds like we'll be lucky to even get that.
lIsT mAnAgeMeNt iS tHe oNe tHiNg wE gEt rIgHt
This is the starting point for fair valuation.
Houston has been All Australian at half back for the last 2 years, meaning he is in the best 2 players in that postion in the whole country and is in fact the reigning top 2 player in that position in the league. He is in the prime of his career. He doesn't get injured. He has 3 years on his contract.
So what is fair compensation for losing such a player? An absolute A grader who makes your team significantly better?
The obvious answer is draft picks. Generally a top 10 draft pick will get you 10-15 games in year 1. 30-40 by year 2. Taking into account injuries, a top 10 should get you 50 games by his 3rd year. By that stage they are established AFL players, either starting to become very good or atleast average to good. But it has still taken 3 years to get there. There are obvious exceptions either way, but this is the trend.
Picks 10-20, it becomes a bit more of a lottery, The chances of the above happening probably halve, there are still a lot of good players at this point, but the chances of a super star emerging greatly diminish.
Picks 20 -30, it very much becomes a lottery. There are still diamonds here, and solid role players, but there are also a lot that play 0-20 games in that their first 3 years and become delist territory.
So in that context, what is Fair valution for Houston? If it aint something in the top 10 and then something in the teens, I really don't see what the point of trading him would be?
Houston has been All Australian at half back for the last 2 years, meaning he is in the best 2 players in that postion in the whole country and is in fact the reigning top 2 player in that position in the league. He is in the prime of his career. He doesn't get injured. He has 3 years on his contract.
So what is fair compensation for losing such a player? An absolute A grader who makes your team significantly better?
The obvious answer is draft picks. Generally a top 10 draft pick will get you 10-15 games in year 1. 30-40 by year 2. Taking into account injuries, a top 10 should get you 50 games by his 3rd year. By that stage they are established AFL players, either starting to become very good or atleast average to good. But it has still taken 3 years to get there. There are obvious exceptions either way, but this is the trend.
Picks 10-20, it becomes a bit more of a lottery, The chances of the above happening probably halve, there are still a lot of good players at this point, but the chances of a super star emerging greatly diminish.
Picks 20 -30, it very much becomes a lottery. There are still diamonds here, and solid role players, but there are also a lot that play 0-20 games in that their first 3 years and become delist territory.
So in that context, what is Fair valution for Houston? If it aint something in the top 10 and then something in the teens, I really don't see what the point of trading him would be?
No way Hose.
That equates to Dan for only Pick 13 where we should get Luko & pick 23 or 29 for next year's first.
Or Luko for next years 2nd, if GC don't wish to flip back a second.
Chewy316
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I put this concept to someone at Port yesterday, and they snapped saying that the value of their future 1st is significantly less than a pick in the teens in this draft.
They believe that the quality of this draft is much, much better than next year, which is why they're likely going to give up a future 1 to get this deal done in the next week.
I personally don't agree with it, but that's the rationale of thinking down there.
I’m not against trading the future 1st to get into this years draft, but surely we can do better than a pick 23?
GWS have a number of picks in the teens, sure we could target one of those
On the bright side, when 2025 ends and Port’s media surrogates opine that ‘Kenny didn’t have the list to win a flag’ (as they do every year), at least the terrible trading will give some truth to those statements.
How TF can anyone project where we're going to finish next year + how the draft pool is going to evolve over the coming 12 months? It's absurd to be so definitive about that. I hope the person you spoke to isn't a decision maker, though it's likely they've at least absorbed the opinions from people who are. It's instructive that the club is once again going all in for a flag in spite common perception being that we're likely to slide.
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