Analysis Derek Hine leaves the Pies

[No SPIN]

We are a top 8 side but not the the top half where it counts. Richmond won the flag and Geelong obliterated us when it counts, H&A games mean nothing it's the crunch that counts and we need to get much better

so let’s project Top 4 for next, and ask a few questions.
- will BNE have the comfort of staying at home for a whole season
- will PA play as many home games
- will Cameron be enough to keep Geel in the Top 4 given how many retirements and aging players they have on their list.
if you can answer those questionsyou can then assess if we are a Top 4 chance.
Rich are probably the only certainties IMO.
And then we have the most obvious question - will Vic teams improve with the stability of a regular season, rather than living out of suitcases and moving from city to city.

 

[loki04]

Dustin Martin showed last night what a one million dollar looks like in action.

Grundy should of been offered 750k @ 4 years with a trigger for a 5th.

The treloar situation also proves how mismanaged our cap is rumours have it he will be getting 900k next year and thats part of why we are looking to shed him.

 

[AndrewShawble]

so let’s project Top 4 for next, and ask a few questions.
- will BNE have the comfort of staying at home for a whole season
- will PA play as many home games
- will Cameron be enough to keep Geel in the Top 4 given how many retirements and aging players they have on their list.
if you can answer those questionsyou can then assess if we are a Top 4 chance.
Rich are probably the only certainties IMO.
And then we have the most obvious question - will Vic teams improve with the stability of a regular season, rather than living out of suitcases and moving from city to city.

Let’s try and have a successful offseason before we worry about next years finishing position.

 

[loki04]

so let’s project Top 4 for next, and ask a few questions.
- will BNE have the comfort of staying at home for a whole season
- will PA play as many home games
- will Cameron be enough to keep Geel in the Top 4 given how many retirements and aging players they have on their list.
if you can answer those questionsyou can then assess if we are a Top 4 chance.
Rich are probably the only certainties IMO.
And then we have the most obvious question - will Vic teams improve with the stability of a regular season, rather than living out of suitcases and moving from city to city.

Brisbane will be top 4, they will still get 11 home games and they are good enough to win a few more from there especially with adding Daniher.

Richmond don't see them falling too far off the mark none of them looked to have slowed down like Geel Hawks and Brions previous teams players in their final years. And they have proven themselves proffessional outfit (ie no hangover). Will be top 4 - 6 at least.

Geelong potentially adding Cameron, S.Higgins and 3 top 15 first round picks (think they could use some youthful pacey exuberance). Will be top 6 not sure if they have top 4 in them.

Port are a funny club but imo they should be competing for top 4 again 11 home games and a solid well drilled outfit.

West Coast will rebound likely replace Geelong.

We along with prob another 3-4 teams are also in the hunt but no certainties.

 

[No SPIN]

Which way is that trending to you Spinny?

Was 2018 the peak and we are heading down?

or are we there abouts and just need a tweak and some luck?

If 2020 was a regular season and our results against the best teams was trending down I’d have concerns.
I have no way of knowing how 14? Weeks living out of suitcases, moving from city to city, living with team mates 24 hours a day impacted the team.
But the missing gun players for much of the season clearly had an impact.

The irony is that while people are suggesting we are on the decline, they are at the same time also aware that a rebound back into the Top 4 would not surprise.

 

[loki04]

If 2020 was a regular season and our results against the best teams was trending down I’d have concerns.
I have no way of knowing how 14? Weeks living out of suitcases, moving from city to city, living with team mates 24 hours a day impacted the team.
But the missing gun players for much of the season clearly had an impact.

The irony is that while people are suggesting we are on the decline, they are at the same time also aware that a rebound back into the Top 4 would not surprise.

I think it depends on if Buckley releases the shackles on how we play. His current game plan does not suit the 22 and is far far far too scewed to defensive systems.

This is why most wouldn't be surprised should we make it think it is a top 8 team still but results are also trending down, we are not the only team to play in the "hubs" so not sure why you feel that should be inconsideration esp when 2 vic teams made the GF.

Are we like the spoilt child who has to have everything go our way? or are we mentally frail as a club?

Injuries are obviously a factor especially Howes loss but again teams often get them.

 

[No SPIN]

Brisbane will be top 4, they will still get 11 home games and they are good enough to win a few more from there especially with adding Daniher.

Richmond don't see them falling too far off the mark none of them looked to have slowed down like Geel Hawks and Brions previous teams players in their final years. And they have proven themselves proffessional outfit (ie no hangover). Will be top 4 - 6 at least.

Geelong potentially adding Cameron, S.Higgins and 3 top 15 first round picks (think they could use some youthful pacey exuberance). Will be top 6 not sure if they have top 4 in them.

Port are a funny club but imo they should be competing for top 4 again 11 home games and a solid well drilled outfit.

West Coast will rebound likely replace Geelong.

We along with prob another 3-4 teams are also in the hunt but no certainties.

Geel will lose most of their 1st rounders to get Cameron - they will lose Ablett,Taylor, and most likely have declining performances from Selwood Hawkins, and a lot of players 30 or over will not improve.
When adjusted to regular games equivalents the reduction of QTRs by 20% is equivalent to a 14-15 game season. So Geels aging list got a big free hit this year.

WC are also aging, with many of their guns 30+.

PA and BNE got a huge leg up this year to make Top 4, so they are not certainties IMO

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Geel will lose most of their 1st rounders to get Cameron - they will lose Ablett,Taylor, and most likely have declining performances from Selwood Hawkins, and a lot of players 30 or over will not improve.
When adjusted to regular games equivalents the reduction of QTRs by 20% is equivalent to a 14-15 game season. So Geels aging list got a big free hit this year.

WC are also aging, with many of their guns 30+.

PA and BNE got a huge leg up this year to make Top 4, so they are not certainties IMO

Why is Hawkins into 2021 declining on the back of arguably the best year in his career?

 

[AndrewShawble]

Geel will lose most of their 1st rounders to get Cameron - they will lose Ablett,Taylor, and most likely have declining performances from Selwood Hawkins, and a lot of players 30 or over will not improve.
When adjusted to regular games equivalents the reduction of QTRs by 20% is equivalent to a 14-15 game season. So Geels aging list got

Geel will lose most of their 1st rounders to get Cameron - they will lose Ablett,Taylor, and most likely have declining performances from Selwood Hawkins, and a lot of players 30 or over will not improve.
When adjusted to regular games equivalents the reduction of QTRs by 20% is equivalent to a 14-15 game season. So Geels aging list got a big free hit this year.

WC are also aging, with many of their guns 30+.

PA and BNE got a huge leg up this year to make Top 4, so they are not certainties IMO

People have been saying Geelong are cooked for years and years.

And I also think they are.

But they also have 3 flags to show for it. You’d take that.

 

[loki04]

Geel will lose most of their 1st rounders to get Cameron - they will lose Ablett,Taylor, and most likely have declining performances from Selwood Hawkins, and a lot of players 30 or over will not improve.
When adjusted to regular games equivalents the reduction of QTRs by 20% is equivalent to a 14-15 game season. So Geels aging list got a big free hit this year.

WC are also aging, with many of their guns 30+.

PA and BNE got a huge leg up this year to make Top 4, so they are not certainties IMO

yes Geelong are prob the most likely to drop category they looked old and slow in that 2nd half.

However Dogs, Saints and even Carlton are going to be around the mark. Typically a new team comes from no where each season.

Bris made top 4 the year before too so think you are underselling them and given the age profile of their list can't see them falling off in 2021.

 

[No SPIN]

Why is Hawkins into 2021 declining on the back of arguably the best year in his career?

Age inevitably becomes an anchor.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Age inevitably becomes an anchor.

Didn't slow him down this year, and neither will a cushier home schedule in 2021 I'd assume.

 

[Jafo]

Dustin Martin showed last night what a one million dollar looks like in action.

We have some players in our side worth that. Unfortunately that’s on potentiate not actual performance. Hence the conundrum of some of our players (aka JDG) wanting more but not reaching that standard yet. The fear factor of club losing players and paying them big $ to keep them (aka Grundy) but fall off from there (granted 2020 is not a normal year for anyone). Fine line being ruthless like Hawks with list and Cats with reports of more even salaries for players barring the out and out stars. Been thinking it’s been awhile since we’ve had one of those once in a generation players (sustained output too). Was Bucks maybe our last one?

 

[No SPIN]

yes Geelong are prob the most likely to drop category they looked old and slow in that 2nd half.

However Dogs, Saints and even Carlton are going to be around the mark. Typically a new team comes from no where each season.

Bris made top 4 the year before too so think you are underselling them and given the age profile of their list can't see them falling off in 2021.

BNE made Top 4 in 2019, with the huge benefit of Hodge as the on field general and a softer draw than they’ll have in 2021. Agree Daniher mitigates against a drop.

Carlton in a Top 4 discussion?

 

[No SPIN]

Didn't slow him down this year, and neither will a cushier home schedule in 2021 I'd assume.

When taking into account reduction in QTRS, we had a 14-15 game season - next year it will be 22, so the schedule is not cushier IMO.

 

[loki04]

BNE made Top 4 in 2019, with the huge benefit of Hodge as the on field general and a softer draw than they’ll have in 2021. Agree Daniher mitigates against a drop.

Carlton in a Top 4 discussion?

Carlton potentially as a smokey in top 8 discussion with Saad and Williams coming in and Curnow back imo. They are a funny team Carlton but eventually it will click.

 

[loki04]

When taking into account reduction in QTRS, we had a 14-15 game season - next year it will be 22, so the schedule is not cushier IMO.

This also applies to our 30+ year olds too you know?

Pendles Sidey Howe Rough Mayne etc.

 

[HeadInTheSand]

I have no way of knowing how 14? Weeks living out of suitcases, moving from city to city, living with team mates 24 hours a day impacted the team.
But the missing gun players for much of the season clearly had an impact.

Stop with the bullshit excuses FFS.

Two teams who were living out of a suitcase made the Grand Final.

Richmond lost one of the two best CHBs in the competition last year and have won the past two flags. They lost one of their best defenders five minutes into the match last night and still won.

That's why this club never gets anywhere - from the President down, there are too many people coming up with excuses.

 

[No SPIN]

This also applies to our 30+ year olds too you know?

Pendles Sidey Howe Rough Mayne etc.

Go and compare that to the 30yo or over at Geel in 2021 - you’ll get a huge surprise.

 

[No SPIN]

Stop with the bullshit excuses FFS.

Two teams who were living out of a suitcase made the Grand Final.

Richmond lost one of the two best CHBs in the competition last year and have won the past two flags. They lost one of their best defenders five minutes into the match last night and still won.

That's why this club never gets anywhere - from the President down, there are too many people coming up with excuses.

Sport - facts are facts.
Nothing you say changes my points - your irrelevant points about Rich notwithstanding.

Go back to the Melb board and continue your insistence that Buckley is the worst coach in the AFL - and not Goodwin as they believe.

And put a civil tongue in your mouth!!

 

[HeadInTheSand]

Sport - facts are facts.
Nothing you say changes my points - your irrelevant points about Rich notwithstanding.

Go back to the Melb board and continue your insistence that Buckley is the worst coach in the AFL - and not Goodwin as they believe.

And put a civil tongue in your mouth!!

Irrelevant - you're the one who claimed that Collingwood missing players was part of the losing equation.

The facts are indeed facts - Geelong and Richmond were on the road and made the Grand Final. It clearly played no role in their preparation and performance.

And Buckley is the worst coach in the competition by miles.

 

[No SPIN]

Irrelevant - you're the one who claimed that Collingwood missing players was part of the losing equation.

The facts are indeed facts - Geelong and Richmond were on the road and made the Grand Final. It clearly played no role in their preparation and performance.

And Buckley is the worst coach in the competition by miles.

This is not the Melb board.

 

[loki04]

Go and compare that to the 30yo or over at Geel in 2021 - you’ll get a huge surprise.

But i agreed with you on Geelong that they of all the teams mentioned are most likely to fall off so why do I need to? Also they are but 1 team.

So do you apply the same to our 30 yo as you are theirs?

When do you think this team (how many years off) will be due for a rebuild be that small or large?

 

[loki04]

Irrelevant - you're the one who claimed that Collingwood missing players was part of the losing equation.

The facts are indeed facts - Geelong and Richmond were on the road and made the Grand Final. It clearly played no role in their preparation and performance.

And Buckley is the worst coach in the competition by miles.

He clearly isn't but he is very stubborn and wedded to this plan.

 

[No SPIN]

But i agreed with you on Geelong that they of all the teams mentioned are most likely to fall off so why do I need to? Also they are but 1 team.

So do you apply the same to our 30 yo as you are theirs?

When do you think this team (how many years off) will be due for a rebuild be that small or large?

yes - but they have a lot more.
Why are you concerned about rebuilds with only Sidey, Pendles and Howe as the only elites over 30yo in 2021?