Opinion Do we REALLY want Jack Steven from St. Kilda?

[Pure_Ownage]

Really feels like another Mitch clarke and like you I’m dissapointed that we are using an early pick for him

I though the whole reason the Saints were letting him go was to get his salary off the books?

Theyve been frontloading to hit 95 % of the cap for years they dont need him out for cap relief.

 

[ibuprofen]

I think Steven could be done today. It suits both to get it done ASAP and if its basically agreed.

 

[Partridge]

I think it's a pretty easy assessment - what's the likelihood of finding a pick 33 in the draft with a potential Steven impact (overall and immediate) vs. the chance that Steven has a strong impact.

To me, Steven is the much better option. The likelihood of pick 33 being...anything, let alone at Steven-potential level is not high.

History of p33 last 10 years -

2018 - James Jordan
2017 - Tom McCartin
2016 - William Drew
2015 - Mitchell Hibberd
2014 - Connor Menedue
2013 - Tom Cutler
2012 - Liam McBean
2011 - Bradley Hill
2010 - Jeremy Howe
2009 - Anthony Long

There's 3/10 players there that I'd take above Steven right now, McCartin, Howe and Hill. And Bradley Hill the only one I'd say has shown as much or higher top end then Steven overall. So in terms of finding a player as good or better player - probably a 10-30% chance at tops as a guesstimate, with some historical lookback and factor in this is for immediate impact at a flag tilt, basically 0% chance. Steven is definitely the +EV play.

What about the following Geelong players from recent times all taken at pick 33 or lower:

- Paul Chapman
- Cameron Ling
- Corey Enright
- Darren Milburn
- Mathew Stokes
- Matthew Egan
- Steven Motlop
- Allen Christensen
- Jordan Murdoch
- Lincoln McCarthy

The last three are probably being generous, but all three certainly got both opportunities and/or were well thought of on here. I'd take the first seven pretty comfortably ahead of any 30 year old with existing problems.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

What about the following Geelong players from recent times all taken at pick 33 or lower:

- Paul Chapman
- Cameron Ling
- Corey Enright
- Darren Milburn
- Mathew Stokes
- Matthew Egan
- Steven Motlop
- Allen Christensen
- Jordan Murdoch
- Lincoln McCarthy

The last three are probably being generous, but all three certainly got both opportunities and/or were well thought of on here. I'd take the first seven pretty comfortably ahead of any 30 year old with existing problems.

buuuut what about the other ~70-80% that didn't work out?

I'm not saying it's not possible to find winners, i'm saying the likelihood based on historical evidence is pretty low and almost zero if we're looking at somehting that can provide the potential imediate impact of Steven while we're in the window, whether we believe we are or not but the club certainly does.

 

[thecatattack]

Pick 37 and they pay a portion of his salary pls

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think Steven could be done today. It suits both to get it done ASAP and if its basically agreed.

Agreed hope to see him speak soon.

 

[catman2006]

Pick 37 and they pay a portion of his salary pls

I think we will play nice and it will be pick 37 maybe two year deal with option of an extra year if criteria is met

 

[Reg Hickey]

He's a 4 x B&F. If moving home can help him with his mental health, and he gets back to anything anywhere near that sort of level, he's a bargain. It's a big risk, no doubt, but surely pick 37 is not too much to pay for the potential upside.

With the Kelly deal Wells has four shots at the draft before we even get to pick 37 - I say lets back him to get a winner in that lot rather than lose Steven and hope shot #5 could be the lucky one.

 

[Purrfect pussy]

Wasn’t really keen on Steven but now that the Kelly deal is done, picking Steven up today or tomorrow would be ideal.

The sooner we can get this deal done the better. We want to be able to focus on involving ourselves in other deals and maybe pinching another player or moving up in the draft.

 

[catempire]

 

[Seeds]

Doesnt sound like saints think 37 is enough.

 

[Turbocat]

Doesnt sound like saints think 37 is enough.

yes ... they might just have to think on it for a while.... 3 days ago they would have been happy with 36 ... now 37 is not good enough..

 

[Purrfect pussy]

It’s early days still so both teams just trying to get the best deal possible.

 

[Max Milburn]

Give 'em Jack ***t.

 

[STPer18]

Saints just saw what we got from Weagles and they're wanting a piece of the pie. It's our pie, piss off!

 

[Tackle_happy]

Not convinced on that BP... he is more a Danger type player than Kelly. He is Power on Power ... but class ? Not what I have seen.. so our mid group will look different we really need to boost our mid group with silk now... and do I see that on our list.. Narkle potentially yes .. Clark ? The SA kids drafted last year not that type. Brownless... still a couple of years of his best. Time for someone like Simpson to step up if he up to it maybe..

Steven will need to train like he hasnt for a fair while .. as a someone without a rep ... I remember what Stan Elves was told when he started doing what he normally did at Melb... "This is NORTH Melb.. we dont do that here" .. JS is a very good player but does he fit straight in like Kelly did? Does he play 48 games in the next two year... He doesn't average the same amount of goals that Kelly does..

We lack a McLuggugae big time I think

Jack is similar to Danger in that he looks like he goes hard at the ball and gets in an under ... and then uses his pace to spread quickly from the contest. We need more of that. Selwood is slowing down, Danger can't do it all himself and the likes of Narkle (who might be similar) are still early into their career and will be a bit up and down. Rotating all those guys will be a boon to the Cats. Selwood can then play a bit more outside and save his body for when the time is right, Constable can learn the art of playing defensively and any new mids we get have a bevy of great types to work under.

If we get him for 36/37 and only part of his salary is paid by us ... then it's a really good get.

 

[Tackle_happy]

Doesnt sound like saints think 37 is enough.

I reckon they want 24 ...

 

[Turbocat]

I reckon they want 24 ...

If they want something more than 37 .. i think they may being going fishing....

 

[Cataholic]

Jack is similar to Danger in that he looks like he goes hard at the ball and gets in an under ... and then uses his pace to spread quickly from the contest. We need more of that. Selwood is slowing down, Danger can't do it all himself and the likes of Narkle (who might be similar) are still early into their career and will be a bit up and down. Rotating all those guys will be a boon to the Cats. Selwood can then play a bit more outside and save his body for when the time is right, Constable can learn the art of playing defensively and any new mids we get have a bevy of great types to work under.

If we get him for 36/37 and only part of his salary is paid by us ... then it's a really good get.

A good get only if we are able to get his mind, body and soul right........

We couldn't do it with MC, so I'd rather pass and devote our energies to someone else.

 

[Turbocat]

Jack is similar to Danger in that he looks like he goes hard at the ball and gets in an under ... and then uses his pace to spread quickly from the contest. We need more of that. Selwood is slowing down, Danger can't do it all himself and the likes of Narkle (who might be similar) are still early into their career and will be a bit up and down. Rotating all those guys will be a boon to the Cats. Selwood can then play a bit more outside and save his body for when the time is right, Constable can learn the art of playing defensively and any new mids we get have a bevy of great types to work under.

If we get him for 36/37 and only part of his salary is paid by us ... then it's a really good get.

we lose the class kelly had though ... we need Narkle to step up or someone else like that .

 

[Partridge]

buuuut what about the other ~70-80% that didn't work out?

I'm not saying it's not possible to find winners, i'm saying the likelihood based on historical evidence is pretty low and almost zero if we're looking at somehting that can provide the potential imediate impact of Steven while we're in the window, whether we believe we are or not but the club certainly does.

I'll take a punt on an 18-year-old over a 30-year-old with existing issues every day of the week.

 

[AM]

Doesnt sound like saints think 37 is enough.

Looks a bit that way. Then Jack is theirs, along with the big contract amount that will cause them quite some issues with their cap.

 

[AM]

we lose the class kelly had though ... we need Narkle to step up or someone else like that .

We need improvement across the board and some of our twos lads to do a Gryan and show they are AFL players.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

I'll take a punt on an 18-year-old over a 30-year-old with existing issues every day of the week.

Fair enough. It's mathematically a bad bet though IMO, even moreso given what we need right now to possibly plug what we've lost in Kelly given we want to shot at the flag next year.

We now have a raft of decent early picks over the next two drafts plus some decent young talent on our list already. Makes sense to use that pick to possibly give us a better crack now.

 

[year of the cat]

Happy to let him stay at the Saints. Just presents too great a risk I think. Have a look at Beams at Collingwood. A change of environment doesn’t necessarily equate to all mental health issues magically disappearing.