Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[A Bit Dusty]

Suppose its all a bit subjective, but I don't have 5 plus Ashcroft.

I have Lalor, FOS, Draper, Smith... then Langford and Smillie.

At this stage I think the Tigers are going to go Lalor (1) & Smillie (6)

 

[4tune8]

At this stage I think the Tigers are going to go Lalor (1) & Smillie (6)

Not if Langford is still on the board

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Not if Langford is still on the board

I think we will take Smillie even if Langford is there but I would be happy with either.

 

[Futbolista]

Rumour

People to rise up against spreading the main/rookie draft over three days and say FFS, get it over in one day. We've had a gutful of this long drawn out process.

 

[T4P]

Just looking at your list, you've got 8 spots, but have committed to re-drafting Mate Colina, so 7 is the most you can take.

Colina is a rookie

Edit: does having an extra rookie reduce main list size?

 

[sr36]

Colina is a rookie

Edit: does having an extra rookie reduce main list size?

Yeah, you can only have a maximum of 42 primary and cat a rookies, plus up to 2 category b rookies.

When Colina goes back on your list, you're up to 35. So you've got 7 genuine vacancies. So a maximum of 7 picks in the draft. He's been delisted temporarily, so you can take all 8 picks into the draft, but at least one will be traded out.

You'll promote at least 2 rookies, because the maximum is 6 and you've got 7 currently with Colina to be re-added in the rookie draft.

 

[GWS Goose]

My reading on the trade pick 2 conversation is that:

• Richmond think that the player at 6 won't be far behind the player at 2 and are not applying a large premium to move up to that pick.
• North have a dearth of young KP players on their list and are willing to pay overs to go bang in this draft, noting that KPs are after mids, especially Tauru.
• North are rightly in a hurry to fast-track the rebuild and highly value bringing forward next year's picks
• Right or wrong, this draft is viewed as vastly superior to next year and clubs aren't very interested in trading out of this draft even with later picks (I think only one underage player made best 22 at the u18. A lot of this year's draftees played really well at league level when given opportunities).
• Clubs are wary of the scrutiny of trading off a player that they could have got.

It is like picks next year are worth 10 picks lower in this year's draft. So North need to think like their F1 is worth pick 15 this year and that the slide from 2 to 6 in this draft is not worth much at all. I appreciate that is madness but I feel it is close to reality.

Potentially a three-way with Saints and GWS emerges (maybe later pick swaps to balance out):

North In: 7, 15
Out: 2, F1

GWS In: 2, 32
Out: 15, 16

Saints In: North F1 and 16
Out: 7, 32

Don't think North should or would do that deal but I am just pointing out what I think it would take.

This would be great for us.
Not so good for the other 2.
Still not as bad as other trades I've seen.

In this scenario North effectively trades 2 and most likely a top 5 for 7 and 15.. They get shafted here.

Saints end up with a reasonable haul a top 5 pick for 7 and 32 which is a good trade except they want more picks in this draft.

We make out like bandits. Hope it happens.

 

[dazzledavey36]

Melbourne won't take a tall with their first pick.

 

[Giant Strides]

Melbourne won't take a tall with their first pick.

What about their second pick?

 

[Andy_Mac]

What about their second pick?

The group think view is no, because our midfield is far more of a priority.

We drafted Jefferson in the first round two years ago as a project KPF, and he's actually coming along pretty well at VFL lever. JVR looks really good and we still have Fritta as the 3rd tall option. If anything we need another KPD, but the assumption is Petty goes back to defending.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Interestingly, ESPN (no idea how good their mail is) reckon that clubs are linking Reid to Melbourne’s 2nd pick.

2024 AFL Phantom Draft: Every pick in the first two rounds

Jasper Chellappah has released his latest two-round AFL Phantom Draft for 2024, with the first of a big two-night event now just two weeks away. Who is your club looking to pick with its early selections?

www.espn.com.au

 

[adonski]

Interestingly, ESPN (no idea how good their mail is) reckon that clubs are linking Reid to Melbourne’s 2nd pick.

2024 AFL Phantom Draft: Every pick in the first two rounds

Jasper Chellappah has released his latest two-round AFL Phantom Draft for 2024, with the first of a big two-night event now just two weeks away. Who is your club looking to pick with its early selections?

www.espn.com.au

I think the ESPN stuff is to be taken with a grain of salt

 

[Seadog]

I think the ESPN stuff is to be taken with a grain of salt

So the same as everything else we read here then.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

I think the ESPN stuff is to be taken with a grain of salt

Me too

 

[adonski]

So the same as everything else we read here then.

Yep, when Cal Twomey's phantom draft drops I'll sit up and take notice, until then it's guesswork

 

[sr36]

The group think view is no, because our midfield is far more of a priority.

We drafted Jefferson in the first round two years ago as a project KPF, and he's actually coming along pretty well at VFL lever. JVR looks really good and we still have Fritta as the 3rd tall option. If anything we need another KPD, but the assumption is Petty goes back to defending.

If Melbourne go for anything other than who they think is best available, they're nuts. Whoever you draft might not play much footy with your current stars. Old or question marks on their Melbourne future with your stars. Everything is a need or likely to be for the time frame of these kids getting drafted this year.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

I think the ESPN stuff is to be taken with a grain of salt

They used to pay that Knightmare narcissist

Genuine guesswork

 

[sr36]

They used to pay that Knightmare narcissist

Genuine guesswork

He rated Jack Lukosius so highly as a teenager that he thought Collingwood should trade two first round picks, Moore and Degoey to get a pick to draft him.

 

[My_Username]

We won’t take Tauru at two so the threat is immaterial. The choice is to offer North something better than FOS or Draper, or to leave the pick order as it is, meaning Melbourne will miss out on top line midfielders, and Richmond just get one. It’s pretty simple.

But the point is that if you're looking to trade down and take him with a later pick (5/6/7/whatever), the knowledge that he'd be gone before that later pick came up would either force you to trade for a better pick or dissuade you from trading at all.

So if, say, Richmond floated this rumour.

North would have to worry that if they traded with the saints for pick 7, Tauru would be gone by then, meaning they'd miss out on not only Fos/Draper, but also on Tauru. This worry would encourage them to deal with Richmond (or Melbourne) instead, even if the deal wasn't quite as appealing.

Yes, North could stick with 2 in this case, but that's no different to Richmond/Melbourne than if they'd traded with the Saints, so no harm to them there. So it's a possible win (favorable trade), with no downside to those clubs (they don't actually have to take Tauru...it's just a rumour after all).

I'm not suggesting it would force anyone to do anything...it'd just weigh the scales a bit, and if it means Richmond gets to do the deal for 6 & 20 rather than 6 & 18, it'd be a win (nb. those picks are just convenient examples, I'm not suggesting either would/wouldn't get the deal done...that's another topic entirely).

 

[My_Username]

There would be a 'handshake' deal to not bid at 1 when they traded for Brisbane's first (pick 18)

You're probably right, but I'm curious how deep that handshake deal goes.

If Richmond gets pick 2, would also apply to that pick?

If it does, could there be some funny buggers involved with Richmond agreeing with North that they bid for Ashcroft at 2, and then trade the pick.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You're probably right, but I'm curious how deep that handshake deal goes.

If Richmond gets pick 2, would also apply to that pick?

If it does, could there be some funny buggers involved with Richmond agreeing with North that they bid for Ashcroft at 2, and then trade the pick.

Richmond could easily say they rated FOS and Lalor for arguments sake higher. Doubt they bid. Actually don’t think they trade for pick 2 anyway well not if it involves more than is reasonable. Tigers can get just as good a talent at 6.

 

[My_Username]

How do you figure Melbourne miss on one of the top line mids? Excluding Ashcroft, there are 5 of them. Based on the latest mocks, the Dee's end up with the choice of Smith or Draper. Or are you discounting Smith?

North fans set the line at a convenient level where all their potential/likely trading partners will get '2nd rate' players if they don't trade with them, thereby requiring better trade offers to be made.

 

[My_Username]

Richmond could easily say they rated FOS and Lalor for arguments sake higher. Doubt they bid. Actually don’t think they trade for pick 2 anyway well not if it involves more than is reasonable. Tigers can get just as good a talent at 6.

I agree, but really, all clubs would want to get competing clubs to pay as much as possible (after all, they're COMPETING ), so if Brisbane will pay #2, then they'll try to get a bid done at 2 just to ensure maximum points are paid.

Handshake deals, and being able to claim that they got the best player in the draft might alter Richmond's implementation of this, but they'd still want Brisbane to pay up.

I agree on trading for 2 though...I don't think Melbourne/Richmond/St Kilda gain enough by moving up a few places to be worth the 2nd first rounder that North would require under likely trade scenarios....but these threads get boring unless you're willing to speculate a bit.