Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[perplexed]

I have it on very good authority that if Tauru is available for Melbourne's first pick, he will be a Demon. They are looking at a possible Mcdonald replacement as this will likely he his last year. They are quietly hoping North trade out of #2 as there is no mail about anyone trading up to take Tauru at this stage.

Sounds like Melbourne should make sure of getting Alix by trading up to 2.

 

[Profop]

Likely to be pick 8-14, surely not 18 in 2025.
Let me repeat the player left at pick 21 is not much different to the player at pick 35. Just like how Tiges fan says the Top 6 is equal and so they don't value 2 overly over their pick 6. The advantage of pick 2 is just the luxury of choice. Same energy for pick 21 vs 35 in 2024.
So if a team has pick 35, the premium they are willing to get to 21 or 27 is a small one, not a F1 premium. Like a Cherry on top, F2 at best.


Clearly Tigers fan do. Your best bet is to Bundle your later picks to 6 and try and get to 2. On Draft night you will be given F2+F3 offers for your pick 23 & 24( will be 28 & 29). F1 will be both together.

You’ve said it yourself it’s an even group so if you’re number 15 in the draft is sitting their at pick 20 ready to be picked you don’t think a team backs themselves in for next year and moves their F1 to get that player?

Don’t get hung up on the actual pick number and understand this is a trade for a player

Think about what Hawthorn gave up to select Weddle

 

[hawkinoz]

You’ve said it yourself it’s an even group so if you’re number 15 in the draft is sitting their at pick 20 ready to be picked you don’t think a team backs themselves in for next year and moves their F1 to get that player?

Don’t get hung up on the actual pick number and understand this is a trade for a player

Think about what Hawthorn gave up to select Weddle

We gave up 27+F2+F3 to get Pick 18 for Weddle

Yeah if someone we rated at 10 is available at 21, we will jump. Can't see that yet. It is more likely we will hold to 33 or see if we can do a switcheroo with Lions or Dons for their top pick for Futures before their bids.

 

[bluespooner]

It can't be that strong a draft if Gold Coast is prepared to give up picks 6 and 23 for Daniel Rioli

17

Daniel Rioli

Age

27

Ht

179cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.7

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

179.2

3star

D

8.1

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

3.3

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

144.9

3star

D

9.0

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

0.8

1star

T

3.8

5star

MG

160.2

3star

; an average run of the mill HBF. And WC were prepared to trade back to pick 14 and then to give that pick up for Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

; a player already a long way through his career and who is too short for many of the postions on the ground and lacks the tank for the midfield.

 

[blaisee]

My draft rumour is that draft watches will get a real time education in how prices are impacted in oligopoly markets

Few sellers, many buyers, price goes up

Oligopoly - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[sr36]

We gave up 27+F2+F3 to get Pick 18 for Weddle

Yeah if someone we rated at 10 is available at 21, we will jump. Can't see that yet. It is more likely we will hold to 33 or see if we can do a switcheroo with Lions or Dons for their top pick for Futures before their bids.

It's not just where you rate them in this draft. Teams score the players not just for this draft, but also so they can rank them across multiple drafts and also better assess their rating criteria. Even if you rank him at 16 in this draft, you might have ranked him at 8 in the previous 3 drafts. In which case you'll still jump.

 

[Caj]

Brilliant! Look forward to him being delisted or traded in 2 years time.

In all seriousness though, does Sydney making a reach work out well for them historically?
Stephens and Vickery immediately come to mind.

Nope they’re always complete clusterforks

Our recent drafting has been pretty poor outside of our academy selections and Chad

 

[sr36]

My draft rumour is that draft watches will get a real time education in how prices are impacted in oligopoly markets

Few sellers, many buyers, price goes up

Oligopoly - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Analogy doesn't work. There's not many buyers - many can't. It'll more be standard weekend auctions with two or more invested bidders as the house has some differentiating features pushing the price well above median.

 

[Ura]

Or put it this way: Tstatas went pick 5 two years ago and wouldn't go top-20 this year. Ditto 2020 pick 3 Will Phillips.

Tsatas would go top 5 this year interesting comparison could be made would be Smith with a more penatrating kick. Not sure you remeber his Jnr year if you think not. 2020 a horrid draft overall off covid with no Vic jnr games. Not sure thats the comp you want to make.

 

[sr36]

It can't be that strong a draft if Gold Coast is prepared to give up picks 6 and 23 for Daniel Rioli; an average run of the mill HBF. And WC were prepared to trade back to pick 14 and then to give that pick up for Liam Baker; a player already a long way through his career and who is too short for many of the postions on the ground and lacks the tank for the midfield.

Do you mean the pick 14 that was traded for a future first and a future second? And has likely gone up in value since.

 

[bluespooner]

Do you mean the pick 14 that was traded for a future first and a future second? And has likely gone up in value since.

Yea, that's the one.

Every year you hear how great a draft is and then you get to see the hyped up players in an AFL setting and your left wondering why all the hype.

 

[sr36]

Yea, that's the one.

Every year you hear how great a draft is and then you get to see the hyped up players in an AFL setting and your left wondering why all the hype.

I don't disagree with you on that - but that's also why this year's pick 15 could easily be as highly rated as most year's pick 8. Most year's pick 8 is usually over-rated.

 

[Crippa#9]

I have it on very good authority that if Tauru is available for Melbourne's first pick, he will be a Demon. They are looking at a possible Mcdonald replacement as this will likely he his last year. They are quietly hoping North trade out of #2 as there is no mail about anyone trading up to take Tauru at this stage.

Tauru met with Melbourne last week.

 

[adonski]

The Melbourne/Tauru stuff is a smokescreen

Dees love Draper and want to ensure he is available at their pick 5. They are aware Norf love him too, and are split on
Tauru vs Draper should they retain pick 2.

Dees trying to force North's hand so Draper makes his way to Melbourne as there is a level of confidence Adelaide are taking Langford.

 

[hawkinoz]

I don't disagree with you on that - but that's also why this year's pick 15 could easily be as highly rated as most year's pick 8. Most year's pick 8 is usually over-rated.

Doubt pick 15 is another yrs pick 8, maybe pick 12
The point you are also missing is this yrs pick 16 is most yr's pick 20 and so is this years Pick 35.

Teams will pay up only for a true slider. Who do you think that would be?

So clues can be got from Mock draft, look at Scythe's tracker. Is there a player most mocks rate as Top 10-15 but 1-2 of them rate as outside 20?

I can't see many. Hotton is the only likely one but doubt he gets to Pick 21 & doubt Tigers will trade that pick if he is still on board.
Murphy Reid seems like the only outlier. Cal has him at 6 while Age has his at 20 and others in teens.

This is a tracker I whipped up for our board that includes combine testing results, Talent League stats and 'consensus' rankings from the major outlets (top 30). Just posting in case it's useful for anyone:

@Scythe94 Can we pls get a screenshot of this page, bit of pain to scroll left & right to track players. More than 30 players would also be nice given this draft is deep.

 

[Morro]

It can't be that strong a draft if Gold Coast is prepared to give up picks 6 and 23 for Daniel Rioli; an average run of the mill HBF. And WC were prepared to trade back to pick 14 and then to give that pick up for Liam Baker; a player already a long way through his career and who is too short for many of the postions on the ground and lacks the tank for the midfield.

LOL, GC and WC your measuring stick for pick and trade values

 

[Danog]

Wonder if Adelaide and North could trade their first picks.

2 + F2 + F3 for 4 + F1 + F3

I have Adelaide climbing more than North next year. Crows' ceiling is probably 8th, and North's is 13th. If both teams perform to that level, trade becomes:

2 + F2 (24) + F3 (42) for 4 + F1 (11) + F3 (47)

Adelaide get who they want ahead of Carlton, North gets ahead of Melbourne without it being as big of a reach for Tauru at 4, and gets a future 1st (Can be used to trade into the draft later on)

 

[bluespooner]

LOL, GC and WC your measuring stick for pick and trade values

Most drafts will have as a maximum three or four gems. Possibly 10 to 15 servicable players and the rest won't make it. How many of those decent players will Richmond land? And how many years of being uncompetitive will Richmond supporters put up with being uncompetitive?

 

[marcmurphy3]

Wonder if Adelaide and North could trade their first picks.

2 + F2 + F3 for 4 + F1 + F3

I have Adelaide climbing more than North next year. Crows' ceiling is probably 8th, and North's is 13th. If both teams perform to that level, trade becomes:

2 + F2 (24) + F3 (42) for 4 + F1 (11) + F3 (47)

Adelaide get who they want ahead of Carlton, North gets ahead of Melbourne without it being as big of a reach for Tauru at 4, and gets a future 1st (Can be used to trade into the draft later on)

Big price to pay given Adelaide might get who they want at 4 anyway. Even if they don't, they would need to see a big gap between the player at 2 and next best to pull the trigger on that trade.

Adelaide may move up but probably won't pay more than change to do it.

 

[Profop]

We gave up 27+F2+F3 to get Pick 18 for Weddle

Yeah if someone we rated at 10 is available at 21, we will jump. Can't see that yet. It is more likely we will hold to 33 or see if we can do a switcheroo with Lions or Dons for their top pick for Futures before their bids.

Of course you can’t see that yet, the draft hasn’t happened

And no way Brisbane or Essendon trade for futures before the bid

They’re going to hold, ensure they have enough points to match and then after matching Essendon is going to try like hell to get back into this draft with the futures they already have

Brisbane I think hold steady seeing they’re already getting two highly rated players this year and need to maintain points for more academy players next year as well

 

[sr36]

Doubt pick 15 is another yrs pick 8, maybe pick 12
The point you are also missing is this yrs pick 16 is most yr's pick 20 and so is this years Pick 35.

Teams will pay up only for a true slider. Who do you think that would be?

So clues can be got from Mock draft, look at Scythe's tracker. Is there a player most mocks rate as Top 10-15 but 1-2 of them rate as outside 20?

I can't see many. Hotton is the only likely one but doubt he gets to Pick 21 & doubt Tigers will trade that pick if he is still on board.
Murphy Reid seems like the only outlier. Cal has him at 6 while Age has his at 20 and others in teens.

Forget mock drafts, "sliders" and Cal's rankings. It's solely about the ratings of the clubs with the capacity to trade up. Max Holmes wasn't a slider when Cats believed he was worth their future first - he wasn't being discussed.

No idea why you think pick 16 is a normal draft's pick 20, when it's pretty clear that clubs aren't valuing it that way.

But yes, pick 35 is more valuable than a normal pick 35, so clubs aren't yet willing to pay as much to move upwards some spots in the draft - but they'll likely pay a heap to move entirely into the draft.

Time will tell.

 

[Danog]

Big price to pay given Adelaide might get who they want at 4 anyway. Even if they don't, they would need to see a big gap between the player at 2 and next best to pull the trigger on that trade.

Adelaide may move up but probably won't pay more than change to do it.

Would be easier if Adelaide still had their F2, but they traded it as part of the Peatling exchange.

 

[hawkinoz]

Of course you can’t see that yet, the draft hasn’t happened

And no way Brisbane or Essendon trade for futures before the bid

They’re going to hold, ensure they have enough points to match and then after matching Essendon is going to try like hell to get back into this draft with the futures they already have

Brisbane I think hold steady seeing they’re already getting two highly rated players this year and need to maintain points for more academy players next year as well

Lions don't have enough points and so not likely to move picks for futures without getting picks back in this draft for points. Will depend on where the bid comes from. I hope it is pick 1 as other clubs need to make them pay for getting this much quality after winning flag. I doubt Tigers have a handshake deal as they had paid overs but who knows.

Bombers though have more than enough points for bid on pick 8 onwards. So both their top 2 picks ( 28 & 31) can be moved out for futures. Post bid they can trade their futures to get back.

Hawks would like to get 28 for Blues F2 prior to Kako bid and then trade our pick 33 for their F2.
Saints have pick 32 and they too may try something similar

Maybe Cats will trade their F1 for both 28 & 31 & then give up their 45 for Bombers F3

Or Hawks trade their Blues F1 for 28 & 31 and then bundle 28,31,33 for Eagles pick 12 or Freo's pick 14 or any teens Pick North manage to snag from Tigers for pick 2.

So many possibilities

 

[marcmurphy3]

Forget mock drafts, "sliders" and Cal's rankings. It's solely about the ratings of the clubs with the capacity to trade up. Max Holmes wasn't a slider when Cats believed he was worth their future first - he wasn't being discussed.

No idea why you think pick 16 is a normal draft's pick 20, when it's pretty clear that clubs aren't valuing it that way.

But yes, pick 35 is more valuable than a normal pick 35, so clubs aren't yet willing to pay as much to move upwards some spots in the draft - but they'll likely pay a heap to move entirely into the draft.

Time will tell.

It'll also be a supply and demand thing. If 3 clubs are willing to trade up Richmond will get a better return then if 1 is.

I firmly believe they'll get overs in either case but how extreme the overs will depend on competition for the picks.

 

[sr36]

It'll also be a supply and demand thing. If 3 clubs are willing to trade up Richmond will get a better return then if 1 is.

I firmly believe they'll get overs in either case but how extreme the overs will depend on competition for the picks.

Without doubt.

Essendon are the ones to watch.

Essendon will be offering a likely to be good future first and they have a lot of second and third round picks, so if Kako stays on the board for a while will be able to add picks like 28 and 31, whichtheyre not going to be able to use themselves.Tiges will be able to onsell later on in the draft for F2s, which will be more valuable and easier to turn into firsts next year due to the new DVI.

I think Tiges will trade one pick on night 1 for a lot and then 24 on the second night for the future first they rate the highest out of offers they get.