Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[sr36]

Brisbane were Premiers by heaps and are adding the best youngster pretty much, I would have them in their own category. Irrespective of the rest of 10 which are reasonably close.

They also weren't far off missing the 8 and have lost one of their most important players: Daniher. Really big loss.

The guy played full forward, second ruck and 100% game time most weeks. It was close to giving them an extra player in their rotation. Him out negatively impacts them in multiple ways.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Why would we swap 1-4 (guaranteed) for just 15?
Ridiculous

Because you don’t have a pick between 2 and 62 and you want to get back in to this draft inside 20, and no-one’s likely to give you anything earlier than that.

You might get some change along with 15, but I doubt it would be much.

As people have been saying, anyone that wants to trade an F1 into R1 this year will have to pay a premium for the privilege.

I also don’t think it’s guaranteed that you’ll be bottom 4. Almost certain you won’t be last. That’s likely to be Richmond by a mile.

 

[saintmike65]

Yep completely agree

GWS would have throw in #15 as well for that to be considered

 

[Chip Scab1]

Because you don’t have a pick between 2 and 62 and you want to get back in to this draft inside 20, and no-one’s likely to give you anything earlier than that.

You might get some change along with 15, but I doubt it would be much.

As people have been saying, anyone that wants to trade an F1 into R1 this year will have to pay a premium for the privilege.

I also don’t think it’s guaranteed that you’ll be bottom 4. Almost certain you won’t be last. That’s likely to be Richmond by a mile.

Richmond will be last, we'll be 2nd last.

I'm not sure what having no pick between 2-62 does to the value, if I were buying your place, the fact your neighbour has renovated his doesn't mean I'm shelling out an extra mil for yours. Irrespective of what we need, it's ridiculous. We just won't do it. You guys need a gun mid, I would hope we don't trade (if we have to trade which we don't as Larkey & Comben go ok). It's astonishing the mental gymnastics going on, laughable really.

Would you swap 7&8 for 6. That's a better deal than 2-4 for 15.. We're going up the ladder in 2027, not 2025.

 

[Danog]

Richmond will be last, we'll be 2nd last.

I'm not sure what having no pick between 2-62 does to the value, if I were buying your place, the fact your neighbour has renovated his doesn't mean I'm shelling out an extra mil for yours. Irrespective of what we need, it's ridiculous. We just won't do it. You guys need a gun mid, I would hope we don't trade (if we have to trade which we don't as Larkey & Comben go ok). It's astonishing the mental gymnastics going on, laughable really.

Would you swap 7&8 for 6. That's a better deal than 2-4 for 15.. We're going up the ladder in 2027, not 2025.

What a pathetic, loser mentality. Your past 5 years have been:

17th
17th
18th
18th
17th

And you're expecting bottom 2 again? And in 2026 as well? I'm anti-fold but North should just give up as a club if they can't get at least 15th this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

When I say from the start I mean for each upcoming pick.

They'll be offering more than just a F1

Essendon currently hold these picks: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65. The later ones will become lower numbers with more points attached after Ashcroft is matched. If a bid comes before about 7 they'll have to match but will be left with some OK picks at the end.

But once it gets to pick 6 or 7 without a bid they'll be in a position to offer F1, F2, 28 and 31 and they can't take 28 and 31 to the draft so it's trade into the future or offer them as part of a trade for a good pick in this draft. If they're willing to pay that, I think Richmond will do it at 10 or 11. Saints would consider it at 8.

Right idea but wrong club.
Richmond will trade the 20s picks not 10 or 11 and I reckon the saints won't either. Gws at 15/16 is probably the prime candidate for essendon to do that deal with.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Because you don’t have a pick between 2 and 62 and you want to get back in to this draft inside 20, and no-one’s likely to give you anything earlier than that.

You might get some change along with 15, but I doubt it would be much.

As people have been saying, anyone that wants to trade an F1 into R1 this year will have to pay a premium for the privilege.

I also don’t think it’s guaranteed that you’ll be bottom 4. Almost certain you won’t be last. That’s likely to be Richmond by a mile.

They won't trade the fr1 because there's no value in what they would get for it.

 

[sydney_gws]

Reckon Nth hold Pick 2 for sure now

They will trade F1 for another pick in the first round, probably GWS pick 16 most likely

Reckon GWS keep the rest of their picks

Pick 2 staying at Nth, kills any chance of a saints and Richmond deal, and any saints and gws deal as well

Surely North ask for 16,37, or ask gws to trade 37 for say 43,44 with somebody and get
F1 for 16,44.
GWS trade 16,37 for F1,43.

 

[sr36]

Right idea but wrong club.
Richmond will trade the 20s picks not 10 or 11 and I reckon the saints won't either. Gws at 15/16 is probably the prime candidate for essendon to do that deal with.

Probably right. But Essendons 28 and 31 will probably be gone in matching or trading out by then. So won't get as big a haul. Depends on the size of the gap Richmond sees. Would anyone pay a future first for 28 and 31?

 

[Rich01]

Why would we swap 1-4 (guaranteed) for just 15?
Ridiculous

I can’t see any other club from 8 onwards swapping it.

8 St Kilda - no, wants more picks in this draft.
9 MELB - no, gave up future picks to get this one.
10/11 RICH - not here, they want to take the best avail.
12 WCE - They won’t more picks in this draft not less.
13 PORT- They ain’t trading out
14 Freo- They are picking after offloading a 3 picks in the teens in trade week.
15/16 GWS - Potentially as they have 2 more picks in 16 and 21, but they could trade up to StKs 8.
17 WB They want more picks in this draft.
18 Rich - they could offload one here
19 Syd - They could offload one pick here.

15 or 18 is the realistic landing spot of your F1 is you want to trade it.

Not a good year to want to buy back in unfortunately.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Probably right. But Essendons 28 and 31 will probably be gone in matching or trading out by then. So won't get as big a haul. Depends on the size of the gap Richmond sees. Would anyone pay a future first for 28 and 31?

You would have to be a top 4 club even then it's brave to trade a fr1 for late 20s picks look at what happened to the ones when they did it.

If essendon are worried about 28 being swallowed they can always trade it out for a future 2nd somewhere and then trade back in post bid.

Point is I don't think anyone trades out of r1 except gws at 15/16/21 and rich at 20/23/24 and anyone trading in is targeting those picks (Sydney might be the only other club that considers trading out at 22).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I can’t see any other club from 8 onwards swapping it.

8 St Kilda - no, wants more picks in this draft.
9 MELB - no, gave up future picks to get this one.
10/11 RICH - not here, they want to take the best avail.
12 WCE - They won’t more picks in this draft not less.
13 PORT- They ain’t trading out
14 Freo- They are picking after offloading a 3 picks in the teens in trade week.
15/16 GWS - Potentially as they have 2 more picks in 16 and 21, but they could trade up to StKs 8.
17 WB They want more picks in this draft.
18 Rich - they could offload one here
19 Syd - They could offload one pick here.

15 or 18 is the realistic landing spot of your F1 is you want to trade it.

Not a good year to want to buy back in unfortunately.

Why the assumption they need to trade back in? They are better off to just take 2 and 62 and use the top 5 pick next year. It's nonsensical.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Why the assumption they need to trade back in? They are better off to just take 2 and 62 and use the top 5 pick next year. It's nonsensical.

100% agree it would be dumb, but it seems they might be keen.

 

[master bate]

Richmond will be last, we'll be 2nd last.

I'm not sure what having no pick between 2-62 does to the value, if I were buying your place, the fact your neighbour has renovated his doesn't mean I'm shelling out an extra mil for yours. Irrespective of what we need, it's ridiculous. We just won't do it. You guys need a gun mid, I would hope we don't trade (if we have to trade which we don't as Larkey & Comben go ok). It's astonishing the mental gymnastics going on, laughable really.

Would you swap 7&8 for 6. That's a better deal than 2-4 for 15.. We're going up the ladder in 2027, not 2025.

If you stink again LDU will leave and get you first round free agency compo.

If you’re any better than hopeless you’ll be giving over a pick 4-8 for a pick 18 after bids, whilst that looks bad on paper it’s worth it if you think it’s a similar level of player

No one I’ve seen grades prospects out of 100 but the guys going from 6-20 in this draft might be ranked 75:100. Guys next year far earlier might be ranked the same.

 

[sr36]

You would have to be a top 4 club even then it's brave to trade a fr1 for late 20s picks look at what happened to the ones when they did it.

If essendon are worried about 28 being swallowed they can always trade it out for a future 2nd somewhere and then trade back in post bid.

Point is I don't think anyone trades out of r1 except gws at 15/16/21 and rich at 20/23/24 and anyone trading in is targeting those picks (Sydney might be the only other club that considers trading out at 22).

Yeah. I get that it's different because it's a player you're trading for, but if 23 and 24 are viewed as almost certain to get F1, there'd have to be clubs tempted to pay that for both of 28 and 31. If Essendon find a taker, they'll be dangling 2 F1.

 

[Rich01]

Why the assumption they need to trade back in? They are better off to just take 2 and 62 and use the top 5 pick next year. It's nonsensical.

I agree with you.
Don’t see the value of them trading down from 2 or back in. Thats pretty much the hand they should play unless they are super desperate to get back in.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Richmond will be last, we'll be 2nd last.

Not necessarily at all. You almost won multiple games in the back half of the year and just brought in 3 plug-and-play experienced guys, who will make you instantly better, and you’ll also add a FOS/Draper/Tauru.

Plus another preseason into all your young guys.

I'm not sure what having no pick between 2-62 does to the value,

That’s because it doesn’t do anything to it. You misunderstood my post.

if I were buying your place, the fact your neighbour has renovated his doesn't mean I'm shelling out an extra mil for yours.

Well I’ll be damned, I’m glad you told me that! Hopefully now you’ll tell me that water is wet.

Irrespective of what we need, it's ridiculous. We just won't do it.

Ok, that’s fine, I was just stating the reasons it would go that way, if it went that way, not saying it would happen.

You guys need a gun mid, I would hope we don't trade (if we have to trade which we don't as Larkey & Comben go ok). It's astonishing the mental gymnastics going on, laughable really.

No more ridiculous than you thinking I was suggesting that the fact you didn’t have a pick between 2 and 62 would alter the value of the future pick.

What it would do though is make it more likely that you’d sell it for less than you would if you did have more picks between 2 and 62.

We're going up the ladder in 2027, not 2025.

I’m not suggesting that you could be in top 8 contention, but you could IMO get out of the bottom 4 next year.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Why the assumption they need to trade back in? They are better off to just take 2 and 62 and use the top 5 pick next year. It's nonsensical.

I don’t think it’s “an assumption they need to trade back in”, I think it’s an assumption that they are ACTIVELY TRYING to trade back in.

It’s been reported that their F1 has been on the table since during the trade period, so it doesn’t matter whether anyone here thinks they should trade back in, the ones who’s opinions actually matter seem to be trying to.

And don’t forget, these are the same guys that paid pick 24 in a super-deep draft (so probably about pick 16 in a regular draft) for a 28yo, who spent half of the year in the VFL, or with a sub jacket on.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I don’t think it’s “an assumption they need to trade back in”, I think it’s an assumption that they are ACTIVELY TRYING to trade back in.

It’s been reported that their F1 has been on the table since during the trade period, so it doesn’t matter whether anyone here thinks they should trade back in, the ones who’s opinions actually matter seem to be trying to.

And don’t forget, these are the same guys that paid pick 24 in a super-deep draft (so probably about pick 16 in a regular draft) for a 28yo, who spent half of the year in the VFL, or with a sub jacket on.

The F1 was on the table when it was potentially going to get them 9 or 13 now that both are gone there's no reason to trade a top 10 pick next year for pick 20ish. That ship has sailed so the idea is stupid.

 

[Rich01]

Look, what you have typed is spot on, but we took a CHB and Project Ruckman last year with a bit of our charity. We would in real terms, be trading rights to a gun CHF (which I'd happily take at 2 this year in Sharp) for 15? It doesn't make sense on any level. We'll just hold our picks and let you go nuts in an apparent average draft.

Agree. After you threw away pick 25 on a 28 year old midget who wasn’t getting a consistent game at their previous club, you dig yourselves into a hole trading back in to this years draft.

I still have a feeling the club is keen though and you may be disappointed with them investing further into this average draft next Wed night.

 

[billnats]

Agree. After you threw away pick 25 on a 28 year old midget who wasn’t getting a consistent game at their previous club.

Some actually describe him as a premiership winning, AA selected, high quality distributor that was vice captain of his previous club where he also won a B&F

 

[Rich01]

Some actually describe him as a premiership winning, AA selected, high quality distributor that was vice captain of his previous club where he also won a B&F

I take it you’re happy with the trade then Bill?

 

[pupstar]

I take it you’re happy with the trade then Bill?

I am.

 

[Obeanie1]

Because you don’t have a pick between 2 and 62 and you want to get back in to this draft inside 20, and no-one’s likely to give you anything earlier than that.

You might get some change along with 15, but I doubt it would be much.

As people have been saying, anyone that wants to trade an F1 into R1 this year will have to pay a premium for the privilege.

I also don’t think it’s guaranteed that you’ll be bottom 4. Almost certain you won’t be last. That’s likely to be Richmond by a mile.

So a future top 5 pick for 15 that slides to 18.

Future picks are discounted when purchasing current draft picks. But not that much. That is a seriously dumb trade if Norrh did it.

 

[aussierulesrules]

So a future top 5 pick for 15 that slides to 18.

Future picks are discounted when purchasing current draft picks. But not that much. That is a seriously dumb trade if Norrh did it.

I also doubt they will, but stranger things have happened, so we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m sure they would also get something else thrown in with 15.

They’ve potentially painted themselves into a bit of a corner, leaving themselves with only picks 2 and 62, and with so many seemingly quality tall options looking like going between about pick 8 and pick 40 or so.

They seem very keen to get back into the first round, but to do so they either split 2 for picks that probably don’t appeal, or they trade their F1 for a pick (and change) that probably doesn’t appeal. I don’t think any of the teams with picks inside 15 will be keen to trade it for an F1, unless Essendon come offering two of them.

So it will all come down to just how much they want it.

Plan B would presumably be to trade their F2, most likely for a pick in the 30’s.