Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[Rich01]

The Giants require 6 players to fill their list. (Even accounting for them to re-rookie 3 players)

They have been interested in Ben Paton. Let’s assume he goes there.

They have picks: 15, 16, 21, 37, 56, 74.

I highly doubt they trade pick 15 for a future pick.

If anything p21 would be used on a future if they hold their current hand.

you would assume they try to go higher up the draft as the priority.

As proven by literally every other club and even your own fanbase with regards to their picks.

Picks in this draft trump future picks.

Take your st Kilda hat off for a second and try to take an unbiased view.

If they need to take 6 picks to the draft and they shed one early pick, it doesn’t matter if it’s 15 for a F1 or 16 and 21 into 8.

It will come down to what they see as preferable.

Their equation may well be…

2025 top 5 pick, 16 and 21
vs
8 and 15
vs
15, 16, 21

It will come down to how they rate the players in this draft on their board.

 

[stavro#4]

Take your st Kilda hat off for a second and try to take an unbiased view.

If they need to take 6 picks to the draft and they shed one early pick, it doesn’t matter if it’s 15 for a F1 or 16 and 21 into 8.

It will come down to what they see as preferable.

Their equation may well be…

2025 top 5 pick, 16 and 21
vs
8 and 15
vs
15, 16, 21

It will come down to how they rate the players in this draft on their board.

It’s as simple as why would they allow a club another pick before their first when they have 3 picks to trade with.

Even if it was a hypothetical stkilda trade. They still come in at 8 and we don’t then select again before they do.

It’s the basic commonsense of it.

 

[Rich01]

It’s as simple as why would they allow a club another pick before their first when they have 3 picks to trade with.

Even if it was a hypothetical stkilda trade. They still come in at 8 and we don’t then select again before they do.

It’s the basic commonsense of it.

Depends how they rate this draft.
If they think they can get solid players in at 16 and 21 (as the saints probably do it they did that trade) AND get a future top 5 pick next year, then why not do it?

If they thought 8 and 15 this year was superior to that offer then they probably go down the trade up route.

I don’t see it as straightforward as you do. Both are excellent options for the Giants.

 

[stavro#4]

Depends how they rate this draft.
If they think they can get solid players in at 16 and 21 (as the saints probably do it they did that trade) AND get a future top 5 pick next year, then why not do it?

If they thought 8 and 15 this year was superior to that offer then they probably go down the trade up route.

I don’t see it as straightforward as you do. Both are excellent options for the Giants.

I’m not advocating the saints trade as a better option.

I’m saying there isn’t a sound reason for the Giants to trade p15 into a future pick.

There isn’t a club before maybe you guys at 23 who will trade out of this first round.

Which is why Twomey was saying that the clubs who want to trade in: Saints Essendon North.

Will have to pay a huge premium as there is little interest in trading out right now.

 

[blaisee]

It doesn’t do anything of the sort.

You spout so much junk about pick trades.

There is plenty of interest in the saints splitting a pick and getting multiple back before pick 20.

It would give the Giants or Richmond a chance to pick at 8.

unless Richmond end up with Pick 2 and keep 6, there is no point in trading with the saints

Richmond will just keep their picks, take Pick 6 before the saints picks, and up with 10+11 unless Essendon gives us two F1 for 10

 

[Giant Strides]

I disagree with your thinking here WRT GWS, stavro#4.

GWS only need to take 4 selections in the national draft. They could take up to 6 selections; but could easily leave off two picks for rookie draft selections (other than Keeffe, Fahey & Wehr) or a DFA/PSSP.

I think the club would be keeping several trade options open, including trading a couple of picks for an earlier selection in this draft (Saints #8 being an obvious option), but also a trade into the 2025 draft. If Norths were to offer a straightforward F1 for #16 - which you would expect to be a top 10 pick in 2025 - I could see us being interested. That still leaves GWS with 4 picks this year (15, 21, 37 & later picks matching for Logan Smith).

I do agree that there's likely to be a large premium for someone to jump into first round this year - and GWS is a club that has taken advantage of that in the past, so I think could do again. Not that I am saying that they definitely will. More that I think they are a club that would consider trading a first round this year into 2025.

 

[stavro#4]

I disagree with your thinking here WRT GWS, stavro#4.

GWS only need to take 4 selections in the national draft. They could take up to 6 selections; but could easily leave off two picks for rookie draft selections (other than Keeffe, Fahey & Wehr) or a DFA/PSSP.

I think the club would be keeping several trade options open, including trading a couple of picks for an earlier selection in this draft (Saints #8 being an obvious option), but also a trade into the 2025 draft. If Norths were to offer a straightforward F1 for #16 - which you would expect to be a top 10 pick in 2025 - I could see us being interested. That still leaves GWS with 4 picks this year (15, 21, 37 & later picks matching for Logan Smith).

I do agree that there's likely to be a large premium for someone to jump into first round this year - and GWS is a club that has taken advantage of that in the past, so I think could do again. Not that I am saying that they definitely will. More that I think they are a club that would consider trading a first round this year into 2025.

I was referring to you blokes trading out pick 15 before you took a selection in this draft.

 

[Rich01]

I’m not advocating the saints trade as a better option.

I’m saying there isn’t a sound reason for the Giants to trade p15 into a future pick.

There isn’t a club before maybe you guys at 23 who will trade out of this first round.

Which is why Twomey was saying that the clubs who want to trade in: Saints Essendon North.

Will have to pay a huge premium as there is little interest in trading out right now.

15 is probably the realistic point that the north future first will be accepted.

 

[Juice030103]

I reckon gws will smash the draft with whatever they do. Just feel like they’ve developed their youth well

 

[stavro#4]

unless Richmond end up with Pick 2 and keep 6, there is no point in trading with the saints

Richmond will just keep their picks, take Pick 6 before the saints picks, and up with 10+11 unless Essendon gives us two F1 for 10

We wouldn’t be trading for pick 6.

You would keep 1,6,8.

I’d imagine we would only slide back to 10.

It wouldn’t surprise me if only one club buys into the first round Essendon.

I could see the following situations.

North get p4 + 2 x F3 for P2.

They then send both those F3s to the lions for p27. They could also Target essendons p28 with a F2 simultaneously.

Essendon could send an F1+F2 for p20.

This is the one I’m unsure of. But it wouldn’t surprise me if we wanted to send 8 + F1 for 10+18. (I think we would love 11 but I doubt you trade both)

Saints end up with: 7,10,18,32,47
Richmond end up with: 1,6,8,11,23,24 + 2xF1 + 1xF2
Essendon end up with: 20 + Kako + whatever
North end up with: P4,27+ 28

Lions get 2xF3 for their troubles.

 

[master bate]

No inside word but i'd expect Dons to try and trade 28/31 for future picks and buy back in after the bid on Kako

They’ve got some room to manipulate things but Richmond are so far and away the number 1 trade back in candidate as well as the number 1 or 2 (with St Kilda) Kako bid candidate.

So it makes it a little tricky.

Usually the tactic would be to push current picks as deep as they can and collect future assets for them. Then trade back in.

But if no one wants to let you back in maybe Essendon just burn 28 and some of 31 knowing their picks in the 40’s become live in a deep draft.

I suspect if he gets through St Kilda the Bombers will be able to make Richmond a heck of an offer to make sure he keeps sliding.

 

[blaisee]

We wouldn’t be trading for pick 6.

You would keep 1,6,8.

I’d imagine we would only slide back to 10.

It wouldn’t surprise me if only one club buys into the first round Essendon.

I could see the following situations.

North get p4 + 2 x F3 for P2.

They then send both those F3s to the lions for p27. They could also Target essendons p28 with a F2 simultaneously.

Essendon could send an F1+F2 for p20.

This is the one I’m unsure of. But it wouldn’t surprise me if we wanted to send 8 + F1 for 10+18. (I think we would love 11 but I doubt you trade both)

Saints end up with: 7,10,18,32,47
Richmond end up with: 1,6,8,11,23,24 + 2xF1 + 1xF2
Essendon end up with: 20 + Kako + whatever
North end up with: P4,27+ 28

Lions get 2xF3 for their troubles.

nah

Like I said , 8 is not worth it for us, as we have 6+10+11

We would trade for your 7, only to give it to Nth, but only if it ended up with us keeping 1 and 6, and getting Pick 2, Your pick 8, will have more value to someone else, like GWS, as it would give them a pick in the top 10, we already have 3 picks in the top 10, so unless we end up with Pick 2, doubt it happens

Otherwise we keep our picks, and you can trade with GWS.

Or you can trade with Nth directly, there is no need for us to get involved

 

[aussierulesrules]

doubt it

Richmond have 6, so will get their best option before saints picks

Yeah but that’s only your best option to that point. Your draft doesn’t end there!

It then goes on after that pick and Richmond will have a bunch of options after that as well, and may want to get ahead of Melbourne and to stop us having our second pick at them, to get their highest priority of their next batch of options.

I think we all need to take into account the fact that North may now stay at 2 and not pick Tauru.

That could start a bidding war for him if he’s still on the board at 8.

And Richmond moving up two spots from 10 to 8 wouldn’t be out of the question, I wouldn’t imagine, if they think the guy they want the most out of who’s left won’t make it to 10.

I doubt any of us knows with 100% certainty what any club will do, because they will have their priority targets at each point of the draft.

 

[marcmurphy3]

If St Kilda want to slide down to get more decent picks:

Saints 8+32+47 for GWS 16+21+37 could work for all parties. Makes more sense than any Richmond trade I can put together.

GWS might be happy with the one elite pick rather than multiple in the late teens / early 20s. Can still trade 15 for North F1 if they wish.

 

[blaisee]

Yeah but that’s only your best option to that point. Your draft doesn’t end there!

It then goes on after that pick and Richmond will have a bunch of options after that as well, and may want to get ahead of Melbourne and to stop us having our second pick at them, to get their highest priority of their next batch of options.

I think we all need to take into account the fact that North may now stay at 2 and not pick Tauru.

That could start a bidding war for him if he’s still on the board at 8.

And Richmond moving up two spots from 10 to 8 wouldn’t be out of the question, I wouldn’t imagine, if they think the guy they want the most out of who’s left won’t make it to 10.

I doubt any of us knows with 100% certainty what any club will do, because they will have their priority targets at each point of the draft.

of course no one knows anything

But if we love Tauru, we take him at 6

But the reality is this, Saints would prefer to split 7/8
Richmond have 1,6,10,11,18,20,23,24

It would be much better for the saints to split, in most peoples opinion
Richmond would like Pick 2,
Nth want more picks in the top 10, as long as they get Tauru

So if we can get Pick 2, Nth get Tauru, Richmond keep Pick 6, a deal will happen
If the above does not happen, tigers are happy to stay put.

That is why I think saints more likely to deal with GWS, as they probably want a top 10 pick

 

[blaisee]

If St Kilda want to slide down to get more decent picks:

Saints 8+32+47 for GWS 16+21+37 could work for all parties. Makes more sense than any Richmond trade I can put together.

GWS might be happy with the one elite pick rather than multiple in the late teens / early 20s. Can still trade 15 for North F1 if they wish.

Yep completely agree

 

[aussierulesrules]

of course no one knows anything

But if we love Tauru, we take him at 6

Not if you love Smillie or whoever just a little bit more, and you take him at 6.

Whoever you pick at 6, you’re going to have your next priority out of who’s left on the board, surely you understand that?

And if you really like him as well, it would be far from out of the question for you to try to move up from 10 to 8 to get him, if your mail is that he won’t get to 10.

Now I’m not saying that I think this will happen, I’m just saying I think it’s foolish to pretty much completely disregard the possibility of it happening.

But the reality is this, Saints would prefer to split 7/8
Richmond have 1,6,10,11,18,20,23,24

It would be much better for the saints to split, in most peoples opinion
Richmond would like Pick 2,
Nth want more picks in the top 10, as long as they get Tauru

So if we can get Pick 2, Nth get Tauru, Richmond keep Pick 6, a deal will happen
If the above does not happen, tigers are happy to stay put.

That is why I think saints more likely to deal with GWS, as they probably want a top 10 pick

If you aren’t prepared to trade 6 in a deal for pick 2, I think your only other chance of getting it may be to trade up to 7 or 8, then on-trade that pick to North for 2.

If North are trading back to get Tauru at a more appropriate place, I don’t think 10 is that place. I think you’d have to get them inside Melbourne at 9 at the bare minimum.

 

[stavro#4]

nah

Like I said , 8 is not worth it for us, as we have 6+10+11

We would trade for your 7, only to give it to Nth, but only if it ended up with us keeping 1 and 6, and getting Pick 2, Your pick 8, will have more value to someone else, like GWS, as it would give them a pick in the top 10, we already have 3 picks in the top 10, so unless we end up with Pick 2, doubt it happens

Otherwise we keep our picks, and you can trade with GWS.

Or you can trade with Nth directly, there is no need for us to get involved

It’s based on the herald sun report.

Saints are talking to Richmond and GWS about trading one of their picks.

 

[Obeanie1]

Other thing to consider with the trade for two is that if the Tigers don’t have Tauru in our top twelve or so (and aren’t convinced other teams above us do either) it’s also in our interest to try and get North to take him at two so players we prefer are then available at 10/11

Tauru is a bit of a bolter I’m not convinced he’s a lock top ten on everyone’s board

Just watched a podcast of that Tigers young fella. Is saying Richmond are keen on Tauru at 6 and don't want to trade it.

Now THAT if true puts North in a dilemma.

Would love North to reach with 2.

 

[blaisee]

It’s based on the herald sun report.

Saints are talking to Richmond and GWS about trading one of their picks.

Yes I know

Imho we would only want your pick if we could give it to nth for pick 2

 

[tigs2010]

Just watched a podcast of that Tigers young fella. Is saying Richmond are keen on Tauru at 6 and don't want to trade it.

Now THAT if true puts North in a dilemma.

Would love North to reach with 2.

I think Richmond might love them to take him at 2 as well.

 

[Wrenny]

Just watched a podcast of that Tigers young fella. Is saying Richmond are keen on Tauru at 6 and don't want to trade it.

Now THAT if true puts North in a dilemma.

Would love North to reach with 2.

 

[T4P]

I think Richmond might love them to take him at 2 as well.

Pick 1 actually

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Pick 2 best available
F1 for a current 1st to grab a tall forward
62 can probably grab tall defender
River

Done

Yep, I like that. Should get one of the Whitlocks there and then have options for the last pick, very simple draft.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Such an even competition. I'd have 3 tiers of value. I'd rank 11 teams the same. Then 6 teams the same. Then Richmond.

Brisbane were Premiers by heaps and are adding the best youngster pretty much, I would have them in their own category. Irrespective of the rest of 10 which are reasonably close.

For GWS I’d say 16 and 21.
For Richmond it would be 18 and 20.

Saints would probably look at the GWS offer but I wouldn’t be surprised it North offered their F1 for GWS 15, which would probably rule them out of the St Kilda trade.

GWS in a pretty good position here. Trade up, or trade well into the 2025 draft and still take some picks.

Why would we swap 1-4 (guaranteed) for just 15?
Ridiculous