Draft rumours

[huludicidal]

Add Liam Duggan

I'd be stoked with Duggan. High character left footer with a great football IQ. Sign me up. Him, Weller, Lever, Goddard, Cockatoo or Wright would all be great selections for Adelaide IMO. I'm not really sold on any of the others in the mix at 14, although I think De Goey will be a great player (just doesn't fill a need for us).

My gut feeling is either Gold Coast (8) or Richmond (12) take Duggan though.

 

[Asgardian]

I'd be stoked with Duggan. High character left footer with a great football IQ. Sign me up. Him, Weller, Lever, Goddard, Cockatoo or Wright would all be great selections for Adelaide IMO. I'm not really sold on any of the others in the mix at 14, although I think De Goey will be a great player (just doesn't fill a need for us).

My gut feeling is either Gold Coast (8) or Richmond (12) take Duggan though.

Someone has to slide to 14 ... obviously the crows recruiting people are 99.99999% sure who that will be otherwise they would not have given up 10 to get 14.

Or they have identified someone not in the top 15 or so who they desperately want and will be 100% guaranteed to be there at 14?

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Someone has to slide to 14 ... obviously the crows recruiting people are 99.99999% sure who that will be otherwise they would not have given up 10 to get 14.

Or they have identified someone not in the top 15 or so who they desperately want and will be 100% guaranteed to be there at 14?

Your coach mentioned on 6pr a few weeks ago, KPD would be a very strong need.
Sorry crows coach

 

[Asgardian]

Your coach mentioned on 6pr a few weeks ago, KPD would be a very strong need.
Sorry crows coach

Yep, the crows coach wanted a key back ... if this is so, why give up 10 for 14 & probably miss out on Durdin who will then have no go home aspect?

They must have a smokie in mind

 

[huludicidal]

Someone has to slide to 14 ... obviously the crows recruiting people are 99.99999% sure who that will be otherwise they would not have given up 10 to get 14.

Or they have identified someone not in the top 15 or so who they desperately want and will be 100% guaranteed to be there at 14?

TBH I think that whole 'the guy we wanted at 10 will still be there at 14' sentiment that has come out of the club is a touch misleading and bordering on complete bullshit.

With the way the potential order has shaken up since that trade was done, there's now guys who were once absolute LOCKS for the top 9 (Wright and Lever) who are a legitimate chance of sliding to 14, and similarly there are a couple of guys that looked certain to be around at 14 (Langford and Cockatoo) who may now be snapped up before then. This pretty much happens every year between the trade period and the actual draft too.

I don't think there was a specific target in mind when the trade was done. I think they looked at the draft and said 'Pick 7ish to 20ish is bloody even - let's go down a few spots because the talent is all so even in that range and, in doing so, get back into the 2nd round where someone decent will likely slide to 35 who won't be around in the 40s'.

If we end up ignoring a slider and taking a Marchbank / R McKenzie / Maynard type at 14, my theory is out the window, we were clearly fixated on one of these guys from day 1 to the point of ignoring superior talent, and I personally won't be happy about it. Especially if either of Jake Lever or Peter Wright go to Geelong at Pick 10 (or one or both are taken in the 11-13 range).

However, if we end up nabbing Wright, Lever, or any of the others I mentioned in my previous post at 14, I'll be very happy with the value there, regardless of who the Cats take.

 

[SugarCoat]

Nigel Carmody said Carlton will pick some state league player at 28 from WA.
Unsure who it is but he seemed to think he was a done deal at that pick according to his intel.

 

[Asgardian]

TBH I think that whole 'the guy we wanted at 10 will still be there at 14' sentiment that has come out of the club is a touch misleading and bordering on complete bullshit.

With the way the potential order has shaken up since that trade was done, there's now guys who were once absolute LOCKS for the top 9 (Wright and Lever) who are a legitimate chance of sliding to 14, and similarly there are a couple of guys that looked certain to be around at 14 (Langford and Cockatoo) who may now be snapped up before then. This pretty much happens every year between the trade period and the actual draft too.

I don't think there was a specific target in mind when the trade was done. I think they looked at the draft and said 'Pick 7ish to 20ish is bloody even - let's go down a few spots because the talent is all so even in that range and, in doing so, get back into the 2nd round where someone decent will likely slide to 35 who won't be around in the 40s'.

If we end up ignoring a slider and taking a Marchbank / R McKenzie / Maynard type at 14, my theory is out the window, we were clearly fixated on one of these guys from day 1 to the point of ignoring superior talent, and I personally won't be happy about it. Especially if either of Jake Lever or Peter Wright go to Geelong at Pick 10 (or one or both are taken in the 11-13 range).

However, if we end up nabbing Wright, Lever, or any of the others I mentioned in my previous post at 14, I'll be very happy with the value there, regardless of who the Cats take.

What do you make of the Liam Duggan rumour?

 

[huludicidal]

What do you make of the Liam Duggan rumour?

You saying 'add Duggan to the list' was the first I'd heard of it.

Can you link me to something?

 

[Asgardian]

You saying 'add Duggan to the list' was the first I'd heard of it.

Can you link me to something?

Not really, my wife was listening to the crows radio station, she heard it there & asked me about Duggan, naturally I turned to Bigfooty

 

[huludicidal]

Not really, my wife was listening to the crows radio station, she heard it there & asked me about Duggan, naturally I turned to Bigfooty

Haha nice. I don't listen to any of that radio tripe.

I think they'd just be talking about any left footers as being targets for the crows, because they remember Walsh saying he wants more of them. Those idiots have no sources. Let's say hypothetically both of Lever and Duggan are available (unlikely but possible). I'd be pretty shocked if we didn't take Lever.

I'm not in the inner sanctum by any means but I suspect the crows draft board may look something like this:

Certainties to be gone before our pick:
Petracca
McCartin
Brayshaw
Pickett
Laverde
Moore

Our preferences in rough order (guys who may or may not be available):
Lever
Goddard
Wright
Durdin
Langford
Duggan
Weller
Marchbank
Nobody else in the conversation as we are at 14 players and therefore guaranteed to get one of these.

Like I said, I'm not buying the R McKenzie / B Maynard stuff. Pretty sure they're both Pick 35 targets. Probably both gone by 35 but by no means definitely gone.

 

[go you pups]

Why do Adelaide want Big Reece when Walker just re-signed and Jenkins keeps improving? A KPD is fair enough though.

 

[huludicidal]

Why do Adelaide want Big Reece when Walker just re-signed and Jenkins keeps improving? A KPD is fair enough though.

The only source that I've seen who says we actually do want big Reece is a St Kilda BigFooty poster who claims to have a source at the Northern Knights. Amazing how shit spreads from there.

So the answer is likely 'we don't want big Reece all that much'.

On the of chance that we do draft him, maybe we're thinking about switching Jenkins to defence or trading him, or the new coach doesn't rate Jenkins, or we are worried about our KPF depth with Podsiadly's impending retirement.

Either way, I'll be absolutely stunned if the crows select Reece at Pick 14. Would likely fall out of my chair. If he's there at 35 I wouldn't be surprised at all if we pulled the trigger.

 

[footyfan000001]

Nigel Carmody said Carlton will pick some state league player at 28 from WA.
Unsure who it is but he seemed to think he was a done deal at that pick according to his intel.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-21/matureage-draft-bolter?utm_medium=RSS

This guy - Blaine Boekhorst

 

[aussierulesrules]

Cal Twomey draft whispers yesterday- reckons it's really hard to tell this year:

Collingwood: Laverde, De Goey, Langford
Pickett continues to firm to GWS at 4, especially as there is talk that Pies are interested
Ahern to GWS at 6 a strong chance
Ellis to Tigers talk persists.
Laverde might get to pick 11 if he doesn't go to Collingwood, where he hasn't been linked to much in past 6 weeks, as a lot of the picks in between seem quite settled
Duggan to Gold Coast at 8
Langford to Adelaide being talked about a bit.
Weller strongly in mix to West Coast, Ahern another one
Bulldogs continue to be linked to Webb- multiple interviews, as well as Menadue and Vickers Willis
McDonald linked to North at 25, Dogs as well
Cockatoo a mystery may get through to Essendon's picks 17 or 20
Wigg potentially Gold Coast or Carlton late 20's, V-Rainbow also a chance to Carlton at 28

Wright interviewed by GWS (and a number of other clubs) this week, which is unusual for GWS to do interviews this late.

http://audioboom.com/boos/2667401-road-to-the-2014-draft-episode-20

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Surely if Laverde goes through the Pies, GWS take him at 6 or 7

 

[TradeDraft]

Cal Twomey draft whispers yesterday- reckons it's really hard to tell this year:

Collingwood: Laverde, De Goey, Langford
Pickett continues to firm to GWS at 4, especially as there is talk that Pies are interested
Ahern to GWS at 6 a strong chance
Ellis to Tigers talk persists.
Laverde might get to pick 11 if he doesn't go to Collingwood, where he hasn't been linked to much in past 6 weeks, as a lot of the picks in between seem quite settled
Duggan to Gold Coast at 8
Langford to Adelaide being talked about a bit.
Weller strongly in mix to West Coast, Ahern another one
Bulldogs continue to be linked to Webb- multiple interviews, as well as Menadue and Vickers Willis
McDonald linked to North at 25, Dogs as well
Cockatoo a mystery may get through to Essendon's picks 17 or 20
Wigg potentially Gold Coast or Carlton late 20's, V-Rainbow also a chance to Carlton at 28

Wright interviewed by GWS (and a number of other clubs) this week, which is unusual for GWS to do interviews this late.

http://audioboom.com/boos/2667401-road-to-the-2014-draft-episode-20

Well the Draft is suppose to be Pretty Even. Some Players could go Anywhere between 5-30. That is a Massive Gap

 

[aussierulesrules]

Also from that same podcast, when Pelchen (who has been to every draft since the first one in the 1980's) was asked about the quality of this year's draft:

Pelchen: "Really even top 10, very good top 10, naturally you expect 1 to be better than 2 and better than 3 etc"
"Top 10 and I'd even stretch it to the top 18-19 players in this draft are the equal to any year that I can recall"

 

[captain cotch 9]

Weller's #1 preference is to get to the Tigers.
I have heard it from a very reliable source.
It was also on the afl website that he supported the tiges. "Weller has always been fanatical about footy. Instead of the usual teddy most kids get as their first soft toy, Weller received a plush cotton footy in Richmond yellow and black. That ball is nearly 20 years old, but still sits in his bedroom at home, the stitching showing signs of age.

Growing up he would play kick-to-kick with one of his brothers, usually wearing them out. He'd go inside, get changed into his Richmond gear, go back outside and kick the ball as high as he could, mark it, and pretend he was playing a game."

 

[Moist Biscuit]

Weller's #1 preference is to get to the Tigers.
I have heard it from a very reliable source.
It was also on the afl website that he supported the tiges. "Weller has always been fanatical about footy. Instead of the usual teddy most kids get as their first soft toy, Weller received a plush cotton footy in Richmond yellow and black. That ball is nearly 20 years old, but still sits in his bedroom at home, the stitching showing signs of age.

Growing up he would play kick-to-kick with one of his brothers, usually wearing them out. He'd go inside, get changed into his Richmond gear, go back outside and kick the ball as high as he could, mark it, and pretend he was playing a game."

Buddy supported Melbourne, Fyfe supported Richmond, Pav supported the Crows. Doesn't mean that they were desperate to be picked up by the club that they supported.

 

[TigerTime3]

If anything, a genuine rumour is more likely to come from the club in question and is designed to mislead the opposition in order to make their true first choice more likely to be available.

Duh.

So why give any credence whatsoever to draft rumours?

Occasionally it comes from clubs seeing other clubs at a certain game to watch a player, and occasionally clubs talk about their picks with each other to feel each other out (and the opposition's preferences may be leaked), and sometimes a club is certain they can't get a better player so prepare the fans for their likely choice... but unless it's steady, strong, reliable, and there are no contrary rumours, then it's probably crap.

Richmond for example have sometimes been linked to only 1 player for a month prior to the draft. This is a case when it's more than a rumour.

 

[McOrist]

Weller's #1 preference is to get to the Tigers.
I have heard it from a very reliable source.
It was also on the afl website that he supported the tiges. "Weller has always been fanatical about footy. Instead of the usual teddy most kids get as their first soft toy, Weller received a plush cotton footy in Richmond yellow and black. That ball is nearly 20 years old, but still sits in his bedroom at home, the stitching showing signs of age.

Growing up he would play kick-to-kick with one of his brothers, usually wearing them out. He'd go inside, get changed into his Richmond gear, go back outside and kick the ball as high as he could, mark it, and pretend he was playing a game."

Using that logic Weller goes to Richmond and Collingwood gets Christian Petracca.

 

[Stylo]

Using that logic Weller goes to Richmond and Collingwood gets Christian Petracca.

What logic? Did he state that players always get drafted to their preferred club?

 

[captain cotch 9]

Using that logic Weller goes to Richmond and Collingwood gets Christian Petracca.

He might just not what to come to us because he supports the Tigers?
He might think that Richmond is the best fitt for him?

 

[aussierulesrules]

If anything, a genuine rumour is more likely to come from the club in question and is designed to mislead the opposition in order to make their true first choice more likely to be available.

Duh.

So why give any credence whatsoever to draft rumours?

Occasionally it comes from clubs seeing other clubs at a certain game to watch a player, and occasionally clubs talk about their picks with each other to feel each other out (and the opposition's preferences may be leaked), and sometimes a club is certain they can't get a better player so prepare the fans for their likely choice... but unless it's steady, strong, reliable, and there are no contrary rumours, then it's probably crap.

Richmond for example have sometimes been linked to only 1 player for a month prior to the draft. This is a case when it's more than a rumour.

I believe that the likes of Twomey, Quayle and co. get most of their rumours by speaking to the other clubs that have picks around the club in question's pick. Eg, if they want to know who Collingwood are likely to take at pick 5, they will speak to GWS and Gold Coast, because they have the picks at 4, 6, 7 and 8. Apparently none of the clubs will tell them straight out who they intend to take, but the other clubs have a fair idea, so they go to them for those answers. They also find out from various places who has been interviewed by which clubs. I dare say they get plenty of quiet messages from those who know those about to be drafted, telling them which clubs have been interviewing them the most.

 

[TigerTime3]

I believe that the likes of Twomey, Quayle and co. get most of their rumours by speaking to the other clubs that have picks around the club in question's pick. Eg, if they want to know who Collingwood are likely to take at pick 5, they will speak to GWS and Gold Coast, because they have the picks at 4, 6, 7 and 8. Apparently none of the clubs will tell them straight out who they intend to take, but the other clubs have a fair idea, so they go to them for those answers. They also find out from various places who has been interviewed by which clubs. I dare say they get plenty of quiet messages from those who know those about to be drafted, telling them which clubs have been interviewing them the most.

Yep, so unless Cal, Emma, or a key draft media specialist posts regularly on here, then any rumour that doesn't come from them is likely to be either made up or deliberately misleading.