Draw Difficulty ranking by the numbers

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CARLTON
neutral vs Richmond.....7
home vs Sydney...........7
away vs Gold Coast.......7
neutral vs Bulldogs........7
away vs Fremantle........9
neutral vs Essendon.......5
neutral vs Collingwood....6
home vs Port.................6
neutral vs Nth.Melb........7
neutral vs Geelong.........7
home vs Brisbane..........3
neutral vs St.Kilda.........5
away vs GWS................7
neutral vs Collingwood...6
home vs Adelaide..........6
home vs West Coast......7
away vs Sydney............8
away vs Hawthorn.........10
neutral vs St.Kilda.........5
away vs Brisbane..........5
neutral vs Melbourne.....4
neutral vs Essendon......5

TOTAL DIFFICULTY = 139
 
So far, from most difficult to least.

GWS - 142
Adelaide - 142
Essendon - 140
Brisbane - 140
Carlton -139
Hawthorn - 137
Fremantle - 136
West Coast - 134
Geelong - 133
Port Adelaide - 130
 
COLLINGWOOD
away vs Sydney...........8
neutral vs Richmond.....7
neutral vs St.Kilda........5
neutral vs Melbourne.....4
neutral vs Essendon......5
away vs West Coast......10
neutral vs Carlton.........3
away vs Brisbane..........5
neutral vs Geelong........7
neutral vs Bulldogs........7
home vs Port................6
neutral vs Melbourne.....4
home vs Fremantle........7
neutral vs Carlton......... 3
away vs GWS................7
away vs Adelaide...........8
neutral vs Nth.Melb........7
home vs West Coast.......7
neutral vs Richmond.......7
neutral vs Bulldogs.........7
home vs Gold Coast........5
neutral vs Hawthorn........9

TOTAL DIFFICULTY = 138
 

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No diss but Geelong only won 11 games last year - there's no way that the trip to kardinia is as hard as swans at the SCG.

I would argue the same for Port.

Good point, actually there 2015 Kardinia Park Record was not that flash. Lost to free, North, Melbourne. Only just defeated GC and Bullies but had good wins over Sydney and Adelaide.
 
Seven more clubs to go.

Richmond, nth.m, Gold Coast, Sydney, Melbourne, st.kilda, Bulldogs.

If anyone wants to help out by doing these clubs, that'd be much appreciated.
 
Essendon has the second easiest draw according to the age, don't play a top 8 team from 2015 till round 7, play only one 2015 finalist twice (who finished 7th), and play 3 of last years bottom 5 twice..... Yet somehow Dan comes up with a formula that has them with the (currently) third hardest draw :rolleyes:

EDIT: in the interests of being impartial, it should be noted that the Bombers to travel to Perth twice and Adelaide twice, which is tough.
 
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Essendon has the second easiest draw according to the age.

The Age is wrong. That draw analysis by them was amateur hour

don't play a top 8 team from 2015 till round 7, play only one 2015 finalist twice (who finished 7th), and play 3 of last years bottom 5 twice..... Yet somehow Dan comes up with a formula that has them with the (currently) third hardest draw :rolleyes:

It's not so much who you play but WHERE you play them. I didn't know how the results were going to look, when I calculated the difficulties.

As far as Essendon's draw goes, they:

play West Coast once, but it's in Perth
play Fremantle once, but it's in Perth
play Adelaide once, but it's in Adelaide
play Port Adelaide once, but it's in Adelaide
play Sydney once but it's in Sydney

That could be the difference between losing 5 and winning 5.
 
MELBOURNE
home vs GWS................5
neutral vs Essendon........5
neutral vs Nth.Melb.........7
neutral vs Collingwood.....6
neutral vs Richmond........7
neutral vs St.Kilda...........5
away vs Gold Coast.........7
neutral vs Bulldogs..........7
home vs Brisbane............3
neutral vs Port................7
neutral vs Hawthorn.........9
neutral vs Collingwood......6
away vs Sydney...............8
home vs Adelaide.............6
neutral vs Fremantle.........8
neutral vs St.Kilda............5
away vs West Coast..........10
home vs Gold Coast...........5
neutral vs Hawthorn..........9
away vs Port....................8
neutral vs Carlton.............3
away vs Geelong..............8

TOTAL DIFFICULTY = 144
 
So far, from most difficult to least.

Melbourne - 144
GWS - 142
Adelaide - 142
Essendon - 140
Brisbane - 140
Carlton -139
Collingwood - 138
Hawthorn - 137
Fremantle - 136
West Coast - 134
Geelong - 133
Port Adelaide - 130
 

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The Age is wrong. That draw analysis by them was amateur hour
Yet the AFL draw is conducted using very specialist software, designed to (generally) give the easiest draws to the worst teams from the year before, and the hardest draws to the best teams from the year before. The Age analysis agreed with the AFL aim's, with last years four preliminary finalists appearing in the five hardest draws, and four of the five bottom teams occupying spots in the five easiest draws.

But yet you're system which just seems to be giving arbitrarily assigned values to each opponent and venue, is going almost completely against this. Of the draws you've done, 6 of the 7 hardest draws belong to teams which didn't play finals, and the 3 preliminary finalists you've done are currently considered in the top five easiest draws.
 
Why is away v Richmond (for example) rated the same as neutral v Richmond?

It's always harder to travel to play someone than play them at a neutral venue.

Surely that's an error in the formula.

That's a good question. I assigned the difficulty simply based on what I think is common-sense. Richmond, don't have much of a home ground advantage when hosting a travelling team, so I think a 7 instead of an 8 is fair enough. Geelong are an 8 because they have a genuine home ground advantage (and are expected to be a good team)
 
That's a good question. I assigned the difficulty simply based on what I think is common-sense. Richmond, don't have much of a home ground advantage when hosting a travelling team, so I think a 7 instead of an 8 is fair enough. Geelong are an 8 because they have a genuine home ground advantage (and are expected to be a good team)

I'm just pointing out that the system is flawed.

Take Richmond and Adelaide for example. Both are 7 at neutral venues. But your formula suggests:
- if Adelaide host Richmond it's an 8 for Richmond and a 6 for Adelaide
- if Richmond host Adelaide it's a 7 for Adelaide and a 6 for Richmond.

Adjust your system to the one I suggested and this error will be corrected.
 
Yet the AFL draw is conducted using very specialist software, designed to (generally) give the easiest draws to the worst teams from the year before, and the hardest draws to the best teams from the year before. The Age analysis agreed with the AFL aim's, with last years four preliminary finalists appearing in the five hardest draws, and four of the five bottom teams occupying spots in the five easiest draws.

The Age rates playing Hawthorn an "18" and playing Carlton a "1"

It says that playing Hawthorn is 18 times harder than playing Carlton, which is obviously bullshit.

It's a bit like the flawed Brownlow medal where the best player on the ground gets three times as many votes as the third best. The reality is that the best player (out of 44) and the third-best (out of 44) would probably both by 8 or 9 out of 10.

Take a team like North who finished 4th. According to the Age, they are assigned a difficulty of 15 points if you play them twice. Someone like Geelong only 10 points if you play them twice. Are North Melbourne really 50% more difficult to beat than Geelong? Of course not.

So, Essendon's draw is rated favourably because they don't "double-up" against the top-6 from last year. But Essendon still play Richmond and Geelong twice, which are both (according to me) about 7 out of 10 difficulty. Yet if Essendon played North Melbourne twice instead of Geelong The Age was say it was amore difficult draw, when the reality is it would be about the same difficulty.

That's the problem when you assign 18 points for the top team and 1 point for the worst. The difference in the numbers is too great. Anywhere from 4th-10th you could argue is much the same difficulty.

A team like the Gold Coast would be expected to improve a HUGE amount in 2016. Yet, because they finished 3rd-last they are assigned only 3 points by the Age if you play them twice. That's flawed. North Melbourne, remember, is 15 points! It's not 5 times harder to play North than the Gold Coast.

In fact, if you are playing the Gold Coast away, it is probably harder!

That's why it is better to have an opinion-based ranking out of 10, rather than assigning points based off last years ladder. No one in their right mind would think that playing North twice is FIVE TIMES harder than playing Gold Coast, but the Age analysis assumes this to be true.

The numbers need to be closer and more realistic, which I have tried to do.
 
I'm just pointing out that the system is flawed.

Take Richmond and Adelaide for example. Both are 7 at neutral venues. But your suggestion suggest:
- if Adelaide host Richmond it's an 8 for Richmond and a 6 for Adelaide
- if Richmond host Adelaide it's a 7 for Adelaide and a 6 for Richmond.

Adjust your system to the one I suggested and this error will be corrected.

The system will have to stay as it so for now because I havn't got time, but if I get time I will change it.

Anyway, it's far less flawed than saying that playing North Melbourne twice is five times harder than playing the Gold Coast which is what The Age's analysis assumes.
 
The Age is wrong. That draw analysis by them was amateur hour



It's not so much who you play but WHERE you play them. I didn't know how the results were going to look, when I calculated the difficulties.

As far as Essendon's draw goes, they:

play West Coast once, but it's in Perth
play Fremantle once, but it's in Perth
play Adelaide once, but it's in Adelaide
play Port Adelaide once, but it's in Adelaide
play Sydney once but it's in Sydney

That could be the difference between losing 5 and winning 5.
All those sides would beat you in melbourne as well. Crows nearly beat you by 20 goals at Eithad this year. If you think the difference with wining and losing those 5 is where they are played then you really are kidding yourself.
 
The system will have to stay as it so for now because I havn't got time, but if I get time I will change it.

Anyway, it's far less flawed than saying that playing North Melbourne twice is five times harder than playing the Gold Coast which is what The Age's analysis assumes.
What is flawed is saying a team that won 4 games in 2015 is ranked with a side that won 15 games. I know which team is harder to beat.
 
The system will have to stay as it so for now because I havn't got time, but if I get time I will change it.

Anyway, it's far less flawed than saying that playing North Melbourne twice is five times harder than playing the Gold Coast which is what The Age's analysis assumes.

Yeah I don't mind if you change it or not. Good thread and interesting to see the results, just thought I'd point out the oversight.
 
The Age is wrong. That draw analysis by them was amateur hour



It's not so much who you play but WHERE you play them. I didn't know how the results were going to look, when I calculated the difficulties.

As far as Essendon's draw goes, they:

play West Coast once, but it's in Perth
play Fremantle once, but it's in Perth
play Adelaide once, but it's in Adelaide
play Port Adelaide once, but it's in Adelaide
play Sydney once but it's in Sydney

That could be the difference between losing 5 and winning 5.

better playing them away than at home where they would beat you anyway. Gives you easier games at home to win
 
All those sides would beat you in melbourne as well. Crows nearly beat you by 20 goals at Eithad this year. If you think the difference with wining and losing those 5 is where they are played then you really are kidding yourself.


I'm not saying it would be the difference between winning 5 and losing 5, but it could be.

You also can't say all those sides would beat Essendon in Melbourne. Essendon beat West Coast and Adelaide in Melbourne in 2014.

In 2015, Essendon beat Hawthorn and lost by a goal to the Swans in Sydney (which obviously would have been a win if it were in Melbourne)

All of those 5 sides we have to play once happen to be away from home. We might not win all of them if they were al at home instead, but we'd a chance in all of them.
 

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Draw Difficulty ranking by the numbers


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