DT rucks 2009

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Cartman121 said:
IIRC, every player must increase on last years average by 10% to remain at their starting price for the first few rounds. This means alot of players' price will fall after round 3, even though the higher priced you are the larger the fall, I still wouldn't worry too much about Cox's price falling initially - historically he starts the season on fire. I even think his price rose after round 3 this year. If you select Ottens you are picking him with the intention of keeping him for an entire season.

So trading him to Cox at round 3/at all would
A) be a 'wasted' trade - keeper for a keeper (although it will increase your points the trade can be utilised much better)
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Nics summary CMan and agree with point A. Cox coming in will be cheaper by RD 8-10 when the MN hits its base. Also need to remember that to trade him in you need cash (it will be a double trade) so the cows need time to appreciate.

The thing with Cox is that everybody has a price where they are too dear. Nobody is a must have. If Cox was 900,000 would you select him? 800K, 600K. Everyone has a maximum price, people just need to decide whether Cox is above his or not and because everyone has a different opinion of what he will do this year some will take him and some will not.

For the record, based on his last 2 seasons against his first 8 opponents he would average 99 which would see him drop by around 70-80K by Rd 9. That's by doing what he has done for the past 2 years.
 
Apart from looking at meaningless (albeit large) numbers on a spreadsheet, has anybody bothered to look into exactly why Cox "historically starts every year on fire???"

* Did an opposing ruckman go down in early games in previous years?

* Does he regularly come up against young/inferior ruckmen (coincidentally) in previous years?

* Have the bulk of his early games in previous years been played at the same ground? In the same conditions?

* Is his TOG extremely high in early rounds and taper off throughout the year - and this pattern repeated year after year?

* Has he had solo ruck duties in early games in each year / or tandem with Seaby - and then this pattern changes later in the year?


Etc. Etc. Etc.


Like a racehorse who doesn't know if the journalists have spruiked him in the morning and therefore races accordingly, I'm not convinced that Cox is a gun early and then tapers off - sure, the numbers may point that way, but:

WHY?

Finding these answers may require more legwork, but I'd rather that than just reading numbers from a spreadsheet anyday.
 
Jan Juc said:
Apart from looking at meaningless (albeit large) numbers on a spreadsheet, has anybody bothered to look into exactly why Cox "historically starts every year on fire???"

* Did an opposing ruckman go down in early games in previous years?

* Does he regularly come up against young/inferior ruckmen (coincidentally) in previous years?

* Have the bulk of his early games in previous years been played at the same ground? In the same conditions?

* Is his TOG extremely high in early rounds and taper off throughout the year - and this pattern repeated year after year?

* Has he had solo ruck duties in early games in each year / or tandem with Seaby - and then this pattern changes later in the year?


Etc. Etc. Etc.


Like a racehorse who doesn't know if the journalists have spruiked him in the morning and therefore races accordingly, I'm not convinced that Cox is a gun early and then tapers off - sure, the numbers may point that way, but:

WHY?

Finding these answers may require more legwork, but I'd rather that than just reading numbers from a spreadsheet anyday.
Click to expand...

Excellent, we look forward to the result of your investigation.
 

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Im getting more and more sure about starting with lock and leave (Cox and Simmo), it will either be them or (Simmo and Mac) for me their wont be another formula nor option.

I was just thinking that Mac is likely to go down just as much as he is as likley to avg 80. If he goes down at the wrong time your side will be in so much trouble its not funny. Im looking to upgrade Mac to Cox at round 6. However lets say Mac goes down at round 4 his price wouldnt have improved enough nor wouldve the decreasment of Cox. Also you may be looking to get other guns in other positions at rounds 6-8. You could lose many trades if Mac falls over between rounds 3-5. So im almost sure to go LOCK and Leave.

However it does take away from the rest of your side alot and you seem to have to play alot more rookies (around 3 or 4 MIN). Im not willing to risk that i in the best world would like to only start 2 MAX.

Still just regiging my team to see what i can get (best formula possible).
 
Dunn - Well Done said:
Im getting more and more sure about starting with lock and leave (Cox and Simmo), it will either be them or (Simmo and Mac) for me their wont be another formula nor option.
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I was reading the 'Player discussion' thread the other night when Happy Eagle brought up Matthew Leuenberger, and I got the impression that most responses were pretty dismissive of the idea of not started with a lock and leave ruck strategy.

The inherent problems that will put most of us off trying to use cash cows in the rucks is that there is generally very few options worthy of upgrading to. In every other position there should be a multitude of falling premium-priced players at any given time, whereas the rucks only really have 5-6 premium options (and presumably most will already have one of them in their team). This can make timing the eventual upgrade quite difficult.

Another problem is that cash cows in the other positions are a lot more likely to provide higher scores to begin with. In selecting a player like Leuenberger, you are effectively hoping he will be able to outscore any players like Higgins, Lucas, Cousins and Haselby that you may have left out of your side. Do young ruckmen really have that much upside?

Leuenberger will be his sides second ruckman for the whole time he is in your team (barring an injury to Charman). Second string ruckmen have a tendency to get very little TOG, and thus usually end up with very spudly scores. Looking at the inexperienced 2nd ruckmen available in 2008 shows that scoring potential can be quite limited by a lack of opportunity:

Matthew Leuenberger: 55% TOG from 10 matches
Matthew Kreuzer: 62% TOG from 20 matches
Cameron Wood: 63% TOG from 13 matches
Jason Laycock: 70% TOG from 16 matches
Kepler Bradley: 62% TOG from 9 matches
Mark Blake: 61% from 25 matches

Is it worth selecting a cash cow whose opportunities are going to be this limited?

Dunn - Well Done said:
I was just thinking that Mac is likely to go down just as much as he is as likley to avg 80. If he goes down at the wrong time your side will be in so much trouble its not funny. Im looking to upgrade Mac to Cox at round 6. However lets say Mac goes down at round 4 his price wouldnt have improved enough nor wouldve the decreasment of Cox. Also you may be looking to get other guns in other positions at rounds 6-8. You could lose many trades if Mac falls over between rounds 3-5. So im almost sure to go LOCK and Leave.
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There's really not a lot of use in trying to predict when a player is going to get injured. If you genuinely think that McIntosh could sustain an injury that early in the season, it really isn't worth considering him as an option. FWIW, McIntosh doesn't have much of an injury record at all, though his endurance is somewhat questionable.
 
Virgil said:
The inherent problems that will put most of us off trying to use cash cows in the rucks is that there is generally very few options worthy of upgrading to. In every other position there should be a multitude of falling premium-priced players at any given time, whereas the rucks only really have 5-6 premium options (and presumably most will already have one of them in their team). This can make timing the eventual upgrade quite difficult

There's really not a lot of use in trying to predict when a player is going to get injured. If you genuinely think that McIntosh could sustain an injury that early in the season, it really isn't worth considering him as an option. FWIW, McIntosh doesn't have much of an injury record at all, though his endurance is somewhat questionable.
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only 5 good premiums i agree if that
- 1 will be in your team
- 1 will be Cox (too expensive unless luck can get your 2nd string ruck to peak when he bottoms - so unlikely to happen)
- usuall 1 or 2 of these premiums drop off or arnt needed. Each year there just seems to be ones (Everitt, White, Lade, Darcy)

So this gives you very little upgrade targets. Maybe 2 or 3 max and the timing has to be just right.

Yeah but theirs always a thought Mac may get injured as he actually does have an injur record IMO. I think hes into his 6th or 7th year IIRC and how many games has he played ?? not enough due mainly to injury. Kangaroos havnt had a dominant ruck stopping him from game time since he was young.
 
Dunn - Well Done said:
Yeah but theirs always a thought Mac may get injured as he actually does have an injur record IMO. I think hes into his 6th or 7th year IIRC and how many games has he played ?? not enough due mainly to injury. Kangaroos havnt had a dominant ruck stopping him from game time since he was young.
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1) You can't have an opinion that someone has a history of injuries. They either do or they don't.

2) McIntosh has only had one serious injury so he is hardly injury prone. He is also still very young which is a bonus.

3)He's had six years on the list but he hasn't played as many games because ruckmen take time to develop.

4) Until 2007 he was behind Hale. Now he will be paired with Goldstein, who is very impressive but hardly dominant and won't stop him getting game time. Petrie and Hale will be played as KPP's. In the games when having all 4 big men is too much Petrie and Hale will pinch hit but won't stop HMac's TOG.
 
well from what i have seen he has always had niggling injuries through his entire career which have kept him out from playing. Im going to agree to disagree. I feel he is quite injury prone and very undurable.

Haselby has only had one serious injury as many players have, they miss games for other injuries that are a result of are serious injury. All muscles impact all muscles and all bones impact all bones.
 
Dunn - Well Done said:
Yeah but theirs always a thought Mac may get injured as he actually does have an injur record IMO. I think hes into his 6th or 7th year IIRC and how many games has he played ?? not enough due mainly to injury. Kangaroos havnt had a dominant ruck stopping him from game time since he was young.
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This actually had more to do with him not being ready than anything else. It took him years to reach the point where he was fit enough to play at AFL level (and by this I'm referring to his endurance, stamina, etc, rather than injury problems).

I've just noticed that the North Melbourne website has him debuting in 2006, whereas FanFooty has him playing three matches in 2005, and FinalSiren has him playing one match in 2005. What's the go with that? :confused:
 
Virgil said:
I've just noticed that the North Melbourne website has him debuting in 2006, whereas FanFooty has him playing three matches in 2005, and FinalSiren has him playing one match in 2005. What's the go with that? :confused:
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I've got him down as one game in 2005 (albeit in guernsey no. 33) - the change in number may be where's there has been a glitch?

R6 - loss vs Adelaide.
 
Excellent post Virgil and I think you have highlighted the major difference bertween the ruck position and others (forgetting individual players for the moment).

The main problem is opportunity (tog) - a second string ruckman may get utilised in other positions, but generally speaking they are either on the bench or in the twos. TOG for Seaby for example is purely based on him as a ruckman - he has drifted forward on occasion but that is the rarity.

There is no doubt that a ruckman who isn't a true ruckman is your best bet ie a Kosi or Petrie type if available, but apart from that you need guys who aren't pure tap ruckmen (Mark Blake is a tap ruckman). Athleticism is a key atribute, and Leuy seems to be in that mould. I think for me, him and Kreuzer are the most versatile and ultimately the best option unless you go all out of a Cox/Ottens style combo. I think a Simmo/HMac or and combo with Leunberger won't go too far wrong if you've decided not to get Cox.

While I agree with the fact you can't predict injuries..I can! I predict Ottens will miss some games this year due to injury :).
 

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Fanfooty often includes PS games in the count. Click on the year and his games might be from "round 0". Just a though.

Lock and leave for me! Harder to align IMO as DWD said..

Virgil said:
FWIW, McIntosh doesn't have much of an injury record at all, though his endurance is somewhat questionable.
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Also, what is 'FWIW'????

For what its worth?
 
Brad Moran says that he is the man to replace Nathan Basset in defence this year. He averaged 69 from 7 games last year after having some injuries that limited his season. Will his points improve playing back?
 
paul23 said:
Brad Moran says that he is the man to replace Nathan Basset in defence this year. He averaged 69 from 7 games last year after having some injuries that limited his season. Will his points improve playing back?
Click to expand...

tomato_sauce.jpg


Well if this is true, it should improve his TOG, which should lead to an improvement on his average.
 
Hi All

I'm brand new to this site--only found it last week so be gentle with me!

The way I see the ruck situation is 1,) Cox is a must have right from the get go as he scored 152,152,157 against this years first opponents when he last played them. He has averaged 137,104 and 137 against them respectively over the last 4 meetings.Play him as Captain for the first 3 weeks. 2.) As Seaby doesn't seem to be very popular with Woosha Will Sullivan could be a value punt(I usually consider real rookies yto be a waste--wait for them to get picked). I will make an exception with Sulivan as I think if Cox goes down Sullivan gets games. 3.) I like Kreuzer to improve. 20 games in his first year at a reasonable average bodes well methinks. I can't recall any other ruck having such a promising first year since Josh Frazser in 2001. Fraser plateau-ed the next year 2002 but was a bit proppy IIRC. If he plays forward could be even better as his mobility and height will give him the opportunity to develop into a Volt type of CHF. 4.) Currie is the best placed rookie to get game time after Spiders departure. So for me its Cox,Kreuzer,Currie and Sullivan.

A couple of Q's. What does NP refer to? Can someone explain how the MN changes during the early part of the season. I thought it was just due to slow starts that most averages went down and hence values but is there something more than that?
 
Ollies said:
Hi All

A couple of Q's. What does NP refer to? Can someone explain how the MN changes during the early part of the season. I thought it was just due to slow starts that most averages went down and hence values but is there something more than that?
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NP = NoPassengers.

Basically a group of pretty decent DTers who at trying to spread DT knowledge to the masses.

The Magic Number tends too go down throughout the season (in theory, because the average of the league is going up - damn rookies - need to do the math on that one of these days though.).

Because this number is used to calculate a players salary, the decrease in this results in a decrease in all salaries (unless a player has increased their average)
 
Ollies said:
Hi All

I'm brand new to this site--only found it last week so be gentle with me!

The way I see the ruck situation is 1,) Cox is a must have right from the get go as he scored 152,152,157 against this years first opponents when he last played them. He has averaged 137,104 and 137 against them respectively over the last 4 meetings.Play him as Captain for the first 3 weeks.
Click to expand...

If you read through this whole thread (highly recommended) you'll find that the majority of it is dedicated to whether or not Cox is a good buy. His averages can't be argued against, the only query is whether or not he represents value (more on this in a bit).

Ollies said:
2.) As Seaby doesn't seem to be very popular with Woosha Will Sullivan could be a value punt(I usually consider real rookies yto be a waste--wait for them to get picked). I will make an exception with Sulivan as I think if Cox goes down Sullivan gets games.
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I was reading a training report about the ruckmen a day or so ago posted on the Eagles board. The poster said that Cox and Seaby were going head-to-head in the training drills and Sullivan was going head-to-head with Quinten Lynch, and Lynch was winning fairly easily. Gave the impression that the pecking order in the rucks would be Cox, Seaby, Lynch and Sullivan. Might try to find that post again.

Ollies said:
4.) Currie is the best placed rookie to get game time after Spiders departure. So for me its Cox,Kreuzer,Currie and Sullivan.
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This seems to be the popular way of thinking here on the DT board.

Ollies said:
A couple of Q's. What does NP refer to?
Click to expand...

(There are posters who could explain this far better than I could, but this is how I see it). No Passengers is a private sub-forum of posters dedicated to researching the finer details of the game (strategy, player discounts, magic number, etc). If anything particularly pertinent is found it's generally moved to this board to be shared with everyone.

Ollies said:
Can someone explain how the MN changes during the early part of the season. I thought it was just due to slow starts that most averages went down and hence values but is there something more than that?
Click to expand...

I won't try to explain this in great detail, as there are posters here who can do so far better than I can, but I would highly recommend you look into both the "magic number" and "three week rolling averages".

Effectively, because the magic number (the formula on which the prices are based) drops throughout the season, player prices drop throughout the season, even if players maintain the same average they did the year before. As a result of this, the highest priced players (Cox, Bartel, etc) can often be seen as having poor starting value, because their prices are almost certain to drop.
 
Not every Newbie is JB, DWD. Every username/poster should be accepted in the DT community, like how you are now accepted even after making two seperate accounts.
 

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