DT rucks 2009

[abs_of_STEELE]

Cox and Sandi for me.

 

[chickawah]

Max Bailey and James Sellar are surely ready to crack the 22 in 09. I'll admit ive been living under a ruck the past few months and may have missed the fact they have long term injuries.

But surely the above 2 are good ruck bench choices?

EDIT: maybe not Bailey, was getting him confused with Renouf.

Sellar ain't ready.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

What value is the fourth ruck position? At the moment I have Bellchambers and Currie as my backup ruckmen. With Laycock injured for the first part of the season, Bellchambers will get games, and I think he's a good cashcow. He was never ready last year, and with a full preseason under his belt should be ready to up his scoring rate. Is the $89,400 better spent elsewhere, or should I try to cash in on a unique cow?

Given that Ryder is needed in the backline, and Bock is far from ready, Bellchambers has zero risk as far as getting dropped is concerned until Laycock has had a couple of games at Bendigo, so will have time to make me some money.

Could someone do some calculations for me?
What price would Bellchambers be if he averaged 40, 50 and 60 after 5 rounds and after 8 rounds?

Cheers.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

What value is the fourth ruck position? At the moment I have Bellchambers and Currie as my backup ruckmen. With Laycock injured for the first part of the season, Bellchambers will get games, and I think he's a good cashcow. He was never ready last year, and with a full preseason under his belt should be ready to up his scoring rate. Is the $89,400 better spent elsewhere, or should I try to cash in on a unique cow?

Given that Ryder is needed in the backline, and Bock is far from ready, Bellchambers has zero risk as far as getting dropped is concerned until Laycock has had a couple of games at Bendigo, so will have time to make me some money.

Could someone do some calculations for me?
What price would Bellchambers be if he averaged 40, 50 and 60 after 5 rounds and after 8 rounds?

Cheers.

Based on last years MN drops (Walesy posted the MN for the first few rounds of 08 a while back, then i calculated the % decrease)......

Average 40:
Rnd 5: 08 - MN dropped to 3982 (- 8.35% approx), MN this year = 4438, Round 5 = 4067, his price therefore would be (4067 * 40) $162 700.

Rnd 8: 08 - MN dropped to 3960 (- 8.9% approx), equivalent this year = 4043
Price this year would be (4043 * 40) $161,700.

Average 50:
Rnd 5: 08 - MN dropped to 3982 (- 8.35% approx), MN this year = 4438, Round 5 = 4067, his price therefore would be (4067 * 50) $203 400.

Rnd 8: 08 - MN dropped to 3960 (- 8.9% approx), equivalent this year = 4043
Price this year would be (4043 * 50) $202,200.

Average 60:
Rnd 5: 08 - MN dropped to 3982 (- 8.35% approx), MN this year = 4438, Round 5 = 4067, his price therefore would be (4067 * 60) $244 000.

Rnd 8: 08 - MN dropped to 3960 (- 8.9% approx), equivalent this year = 4043
Price this year would be (4043 * 60) $242,600.

Obviously the MN decreases will not follow a pattern but we can be certain it will drop because of all the rookies averaging higher than their previous average (0), that distorts the player pool.

For round 8 i'd probably assume a 10% decrease not the 8.9% of last year, his price would consequently be $239,600.

It is quite difficult for mid-priced players to gain alot of cash for the simple reason they can't increase their priced average by the same % as rookies (rookies are priced at an average of 18, first rounders different though), that is essentially the reason why the guns and rookies tactic is so popular - the $ you can potentially gain is far greater than the money you can gain with the mid-priced strategy.

FWIW, Bellchambers would need to score 69 each week to gain $100 000, assuming a 10% decrease in MN.

Hope this helps....

 

[Kenzie101]

Its a valid thought, but i have to disagree. Bringing in ablett or bartel is much much easier, as there are a wealth of mid price improvers that can increase in value quickly, making the upgrade much easier. The rucks however, dont have many midpricers who can do this, and are very hard to pick, thus upgrading to cox is alot harder. Also, its harder to trade cox in due to the luck with timing that is required. Think with you midfielder or FW midpricers - if they dont line up to bartel when they peak, you can just upgrade to ablett or corey or kane or swan or stanton or thompsom... or whoever the best fallen premium is at that stage that you want in your final team. With cox, he is the only upgrade option, therefore everything has to align more. IMO, it could indeed work out very very well not starting cox, but there are potential risks involved (as highlighted).

I completely agree. this year i will be starting with cox, in the past few years you have always had the choice of White or Cox. But now there is only one. I went with Cox / Kruz / Gardner last year so im going with a lock and leave this year Cox and either Simmonds/Hille.
What are peoples thoughts on hille? does any1 think he can back up last season? Any1 going with him or worried about the various injuries he has had lince round 20?(sting-ray, broken hand and cant remember the other one)

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Based on last years MN drops (Walesy posted the MN for the first few rounds of 08 a while back, then i calculated the % decrease)......

...

Thanks so much mate. Those numbers don't make him very enticing.

I may upgrade Foley with the proceeds.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Had Simmonds however he is getting old.

Just to address this point, the elite DT ruckmen of recent years (Everitt, Lade, White) have had their best seasons at the age 30-31.

Simmonds is certainly still fit enough, so I'd say he'll be going strong for at least another year, before tailing off (as Everitt and Lade did, although White maintained an average of ~90 through to agre 32).

Certainly not too old, past trends suggest.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Thanks so much mate. Those numbers don't make him very enticing.

I may upgrade Foley with the proceeds.

What Bellchambers has in his favour IMO is - in effect - the potential "worthlessness" of the 4th ruck position, that means whenever the time is right for a trade - when he's peaked - you can downgrade him to a 77k rookie just like that (if you have another solid player who gets "regular" games on your bench), whereas with cash cows in other positions it's slightly more hit and miss as you'd like to downgrade to a playing rookie which could be non-existant when the time is ripe for the trade.

At the end of the day it depends what you believe "BC" will average when he plays and how effectively the extra money can be used to gain you points from the "get-go".

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Well, just quickly, I could swap:

Bellchambers and Foley
for
86,600 + any midfielder from Scott Thompson down

or

Bellchambers, Foley and Skipworth
for
86,600 ruck, T Walker and any midfielder

tempting...

 

[LemmingMaster]

Bellchambers, Foley and Skipworth
for
86,600 ruck, T Walker and any midfielder

tempting...

*nods*

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I was thinking of downgrading a forward premium to Higgins then upgrading Foley, but this is much much much better.

Looking very nice now.

Although having Ballantyne, Walker, Gumbleton, Brown and Yarran in the forward line is worrying. A bit.

Gablett eases the pain though.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I think this is a great example of how easily a team can be re-jigged. I downgraded two sub-200k cashcows for rookie price cashcows, then upgraded a speculative pick for Ablett, with 50k left over.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Although having Ballantyne, Walker, Gumbleton, Brown and Yarran in the forward line is worrying. A bit.

Very high risk, starting 3 rookies in the one position. Just as long as you understand this risk, then by all means go ahead.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I'm looking for a downgrade elsewhere to upgrade Walker back to Skipworth. He's a bit safer than a first year player.

 

[force65]

atm im going with Simmonds and Mcintosh/Petrie

ive decided to go with two solid ruckman and not have to trade them during the season...but i havent gone big to get cox

will mcintosh hold up?

 

[Benno_900]

On Cox - Talking from experience ... for those of you saying "Cox has no value, I'll pick him up later in the season when he falls in price...", well, I have played DT for 3-4 years now and have never started with Cox.

In the last 3 years, I was pretty much forced to waste 2 trades to bring him in again. Two trades is worth more than the 100k-200k you'll save. He is a must IMO unless you manage to pick a player that averages similar and you don't plan on bringing Cox at all.

Won't be making the same mistake for the fifth time. Actually, I pretty much ****ed up the whole ruck position last season. Chose Hamish over Simmonds, got injured and then Hille over Simmonds and he gets injured (waste of 3 trades and about a month of zeroes). Screw the "unique" factor.

On McIntosh - He is my favourite player so it has influenced me to pick him up in the last 3 seasons. Was great for his price in the two seasons before last when he got injured. He is very capable of an avg of 85+ ...

But I am uncertain whether to pick him or Ottens this season as the second ruckman. Hamish is a very frustrating DTer mainly because of the lack of TOG. One factor is his fitness (he has a very small tank). The other is our depth in the ruck position. For Hamish's TOG in the last few seasons though, he does score well, throwing out some 40 pt quarters on occasions (and he never plays the full 30 mins).

The consensus on the North board is that Hamish and Goldstein will be our two ruckman this season with Hale our main forward and Petrie our main defender. In that case, I would choose Hamish. But Laidley is known for rotating 4 or even 5 different players through the ruck position in a game. When Hale/Petrie are thrown into the ruck, Hamish's TOG will suffer greatly, sometimes ending up below 50% which could be a deterring factor (in which case I'd try and use up another 30k for Ottens). He very rarely gets rested in the forwardline but that could and should change this season.

I guess you may have to wait to see how we set up in pre-season. Even then, it could be misleading because Laidley may be just experimenting.

 

[54Dogs]

Nice Post Benno, well summarised

 

[Daz]

Yep, nice summary Benno One encouraging thing for McIntosh is that in the intra club game both Hale and Petrie played exclusively as KPP's leaving MAC and Goldy to battle it out in the ruck.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Yep, nice summary Benno One encouraging thing for McIntosh is that in the intra club game both Hale and Petrie played exclusively as KPP's leaving MAC and Goldy to battle it out in the ruck.

Maybe a North supporter could shed more light, but how would it be possible to have 4 Massive players in the team?

Surely there is more value in only 3 of Hale, Petrie, MAC and Goldy playing?

 

[happy_eagle]

CHB: Petrie
FF/CHF: Hale
R: Mcintosh
I: Goldstein

 

[LemmingMaster]

I still feel that they're going too tall, I really liked Petrie running around the ground.

 

[Cruiser23]

I still feel that they're going too tall, I really liked Petrie running around the ground.

I agree he was fantastic around the ground last year but the issue is the CHB position where he seems the best fit right now as Hansen is being earmarked to play at CHF.

 

[__aria__]

yep good nth knowledge there guys

it is very hard to ignore Goldy at the moment especially after what he did in the AFL last year

here is what dean said in a recent article
Laidley added that the contribution of his second-, third- and fourth-year players would be pivotal this year, and he has been particularly encouraged by the emergence of ruckman Todd Goldstein.

The 20-year-old, who played three games in 2008, has improved his conditioning and athleticism through a heavy summer workload and is looking to form a strong combination with first-choice big man Hamish McIntosh.

“His development from midway through last year and then coming back and having this pre-season – it’s been a joy to watch him,” Laidley said.

“Hamish has also had a very good pre-season. To have those two rucking will be great for the football club and will allow us to play David Hale forward. If we can keep those three on the park it will be very exciting for our supporters.”


after the intra club
Third-year ruckman Todd Goldstein, nominated by coach Dean Laidley before the match as the big improver at Arden Street over the summer, more than held his own against the club's No.1 big man, Hamish McIntosh.

"It's been a joy to watch him go about his work," said Laidley of Goldstein.


re: hansen and petrie
in the intra club they played on the same team and switched between CHB/CHF

 

[Daz]

Maybe a North supporter could shed more light, but how would it be possible to have 4 Massive players in the team?

Surely there is more value in only 3 of Hale, Petrie, MAC and Goldy playing?

This will depend on the opposition. There will be games when Goldy misses out and Petrie/Hale will pinch hit in the ruck.

 

[Benno_900]

Maybe a North supporter could shed more light, but how would it be possible to have 4 Massive players in the team?

Surely there is more value in only 3 of Hale, Petrie, MAC and Goldy playing?

If you look at our other KPP, they're all pretty small (Hansen aside). So two of them should play KP for the majority of the year (personally prefer Petrie CHB and Hale CHF).

I agree he was fantastic around the ground last year but the issue is the CHB position where he seems the best fit right now as Hansen is being earmarked to play at CHF.

Petrie played at CHB for the majority of the intraclub match with Hansen playing around the ground.