DT Trading discussion 2010

[Narkee]

everyone needs to chill out and grab a beer me thinks

This!!!

I cannot comprehend how worked up DT Coaches get over each others trading strategies!

If people want to trade let them, there is enough information on this board for coaches to make informed decisions.

 

[Childish Gambino]

Seems to me that A59 is looking at two issues.

1) The direct Hitchcock to Pods/Rockliff trade.

I tend to agree with A59 here, I don't think the gain is worth the trade. Hitchcock only has a b/e of 17 and still has another 35-65K to gain.

2) Using lots of trades early.

I personally like to save trades and then go bang around rounds 7-11 when rookies have peaked and premiums have fallen. I also play for overall ranking, using trades early may net you points then, however in the late rounds when zeros occur because of having no trades then it tends to outweigh the early points made.
Everyone has their own view and different variables create different situations, but I certainly know which way I like to go.

Exactly my point... and of course the third issue which is that good advice is hard to find. It disappoints me that posters like KidA and yourself, who actually know what they're talking about, opinions aren't respected.

If you were to have a filter in this thread to remove the rubbish posted about 4/5ths of the posts would be cut out.

dee64, this year I made a few wrong decisions early on picking players like Tippett, Cassissi and Wright. I have stuck with all three so far making only one trade and that is Roo to Brown. I'm currently ranked about 24,000. I have learnt from past years mistakes that trading sideways is going to get you into trouble in the future. The reasons you trade are to downgrade (make a gain of at least $100k), upgrade to a PREMIUM, or injuries. In the first 2 weeks you can make one or two trades to correct you initial starting line up.

What is your team name by the way? If you keep up your trading spree I'd be very surpirsed if you're ranked in the top 1000 by years end.

 

[Childish Gambino]

This!!!

I cannot comprehend how worked up DT Coaches get over each others trading strategies!

If people want to trade let them, there is enough information on this board for coaches to make informed decisions.

If people don't respect the information handed out by good posters then they will stop posting and all you will be left with is rubbish.

 

[Docker Dolph]

Anyone who sticks to a strategy simply because it is "a rule" is failing as badly as someone who doesn't take it in to consideration.

There is always an exception to any rule so it's up to you to decide whether the trade you're thinking of gains you enough, corrects an error in judgment or compensates for bad luck.

Sometimes not making a trade makes a mistake larger because a ship may sail.

Treat trades as the valuable commodity they are, obviously, but IMO anyone who says "NEVER trade early" is just as big an idiot as someone who burns 6 by round 3.

A rule is for someone too stupid to follow a guideline.

 

[Narkee]

If people don't respect the information handed out by good posters then they will stop posting and all you will be left with is rubbish.

Good posters will never stop posting because there is always another good poster who will respond to create a quality DT discussion. I agree with you in that there is a lot of rubbish posts but they are easy to identify imo.

BF is my favourite resource for quality DT information (along with TS and footytragic) and I think you will find that all DT related sites will have posters who post rubbish.

 

[Childish Gambino]

Anyone who sticks to a strategy simply because it is "a rule" is failing as badly as someone who doesn't take it in to consideration.

There is always an exception to any rule so it's up to you to decide whether the trade you're thinking of gains you enough, corrects an error in judgment or compensates for bad luck.

Sometimes not making a trade makes a mistake larger because a ship may sail.

Treat trades as the valuable commodity they are, obviously, but IMO anyone who says "NEVER trade early" is just as big an idiot as someone who burns 6 by round 3.

A rule is for someone too stupid to follow a guideline.

You're right. But what you fail to mention is that there are a lot of people looking at ways to get Pods and Rockcliffe into their sides even if it isn't really suitable at the moment.

Lets look at the Hitchcock ($144,100 B/E of 17) to Pods ($77,800 B/E -143) trade.

The net result of this trade is $66,300.

What about the price rise of Podsiadly?
You only realise this gain when you trade him out, either upgrade or downgrade. This means you need to waste another trade.

Is the net result of $66k worth a trade? I would say no, however if Hitchcock gets dropped this week you may say otherwise.

 

[Docker Dolph]

You're right. But what you fail to mention is that there are a lot of people looking at ways to get Pods and Rockcliffe into their sides even if it isn't really suitable at the moment.

Lets look at the Hitchcock ($144,100 B/E of 17) to Pods ($77,800 B/E -143) trade.

The net result of this trade is $66,300.

What about the price rise of Podsiadly?
You only realise this gain when you trade him out, either upgrade or downgrade. This means you need to waste another trade.

Is the net result of $66k worth a trade? I would say no, however if Hitchcock gets dropped this week you may say otherwise.

You just proved my point.

Even in the trade you're abusing people for you make a slight case for doing it.

That slight case is enough for people to consider it and not be called stupid for doing so.

 

[dee64]

What is your team name by the way? If you keep up your trading spree I'd be very surpirsed if you're ranked in the top 1000 by years end.

I've only made 2 trades to date, both after round 2 in order to correct mistakes before the first price adjustments. I'll be making 2 downgrade trades this week in order to generate some cash for upgrades in weeks to come, and also potentially gain some more points.

My strategy is to have 22 keepers by round 11 and a solid bench, with at least 10 trades in hand. Some of the players I have earmarked as upgrades (Kennelly, Gwilt, Waters) may end up being keepers. If so, I'll have more trades available. I'll also be utilising my double position players to cover for injuries.

The way I see it, all the 24,000 people ahead of you are not going to suffer from zeros in the final rounds, which means that you are basically out of the comp. after 4 rounds. Same goes for KidA who is 98,000th.

BTW, my team name is Bailey's a dud.

 

[dee64]

What about the price rise of Podsiadly?
You only realise this gain when you trade him out, either upgrade or downgrade. This means you need to waste another trade.

You fail to factor in the potential point scoring capacity of Pods and Rockliff compared to Hitchcock.

 

[Childish Gambino]

I've only made 2 trades to date, both after round 2 in order to correct mistakes before the first price adjustments. I'll be making 2 downgrade trades this week in order to generate some cash for upgrades in weeks to come, and also potentially gain some more points.

My strategy is to have 22 keepers by round 11 and a solid bench, with at least 10 trades in hand. Some of the players I have earmarked as upgrades (Kennelly, Gwilt, Waters) may end up being keepers. If so, I'll have more trades available. I'll also be utilising my double position players to cover for injuries.

The way I see it, all the 24,000 people ahead of you are not going to suffer from zeros in the final rounds, which means that you are basically out of the comp. after 4 rounds. Same goes for KidA who is 98,000th.

BTW, my team name is Bailey's a dud.

Oh really? I didn't realise I couldn't win anymore . I am going for a league win where we have all put money into. So that is my number one priority.

At least you have a strategy and are keeping to it. I thought you only had 16 trades and were going to use 2 more this week.

 

[Childish Gambino]

You fail to factor in the potential point scoring capacity of Pods and Rockliff compared to Hitchcock.

It depends if they are sitting on you bench or if you're playing them.

 

[Falchoon]

You fail to factor in the potential point scoring capacity of Pods and Rockliff compared to Hitchcock.

Also the capacity to score zeroes is increased.

Pods is potentially a lock in the Geelong team for another 5-6 rounds at least, with Gray and Rodan back Hitchcock may not play at all.

Geelong have the following draw over the next 6 weeks

Carlton
Richmond
Sydney @ Skilled
Brisbane
Collingwood
Melbourne
West Coast
Essendon

They are a chance to score 20 goals in at least half of those game.

I'm not saying there's a right or wrong answer just that there's a lot more to consider than 66K = 1 trade.

 

[Majestic1]

If people don't respect the information handed out by good posters then they will stop posting and all you will be left with is rubbish.

I think they already have stopped posting

Barely do we see Lakey, Dogs, Skank, Ausyid ect post anymore.

I agree with everything you have said AS9 and also KidA.

This board is quickly losing its way and its really hard to read all the rubbish that is posted. It gets very frustrating.

Its becoming alot like Fanfooty where people talk shit.

 

[Hannabal]

Barely do we see Lakey, Dogs, Skank, Ausyid ect post anymore.

I can feel them watching though.

If I was hovering around 8-10K I think I'd sit back and let the dummies fall by the wayside too.

 

[magpies03]

I think they already have stopped posting

Barely do we see Lakey, Dogs, Skank, Ausyid ect post anymore.

I agree with everything you have said AS9 and also KidA.

This board is quickly losing its way and its really hard to read all the rubbish that is posted. It gets very frustrating.

Its becoming alot like Fanfooty where people talk shit.

This site can be a very useful tool whether your an active poster or not. Just because they arnt posting doesnt mean they arnt watching The site is still a great site providing your take what is being said on board but still make your own decisions. As dream team gets more and more popular, more and more people will join the site and naturally there will be more info being spread. Some of it useful, some of it cr@p. As long as you can take everyones opinion on board but still make your own decisions rather than copying what everony else does then its a great tool.

Ive been on the site for over 4 years now and its changed remarkably since march 2006 when i first joined up. These guys may not post but id be very suprised if they didnt stick their head in every now and again.

 

[holybishop]

Only n00bs takes what people post on this site religiously.

 

[jamzee]

Lately it has been discussed as to whether the matter of getting these rookies (like pods, rockliff, davis etc.) should be brought into your team now and utilise the cash or whether its better to hold off and let your current rookies ripen and the potential guns to fall a bit more.
From my team i looked at both options trade by trade to see where i would sit, i have 17 trades left and 100k in the bank respectively.
Option 1 : Get the rookies in!
(Trade,Player,Cash left, round number)
17 - Ziebell to Podsiadly 320k 5
16 - Martin to Gibbs 120k 6
15 - Bastinac to Gun 0k 6/7
14 - Barlow to rookie 200k 6/7
13 - Ball to Gun 120k 7/8
12 - Rockliff to Gun 9+
11 - Podsiadly to Rookie 200k 9/10
10 - Danger to Gun 100k 9-11
9 - Maguire to rookie 240k 7-11
8 - Ladson to rookie 9 360 5-11
7 - Hunt to gun 9+
6 - Silvagni to gun 9+
5 - Rookie/gumby to gun 9+
I am left with 5 trades and this team by around round 12/13
Hodge Goddard Enright Kennelly Shaw GUN GUN rookie rookie
Swan Stanton Selwood GUN GUN GUN shuey rookie
Sandilands Hille Warnock lobbe
ROK Pavlich Goodes Giansiracusa GUN GUN rookie rookie

This approach left us with a great team, that scores fast but might not have much cover, few trades for a lot of rounds and with some injury bad luck could get some zeroes in the laste rounds.

Option 2: Save trades and use your rookies you have
1. Bastinac > rookie (200) 7
2. D. Martin > GUN (175k) 7/8
3. Barlow to GUN 50k 9
4. Silvagni to Rooke (180k) 9
5. Ball to GUN (80k) 10
6. Gumbleton to Rookie (150k) 11
7. Ziebell to Gun (didak,johnson/davis etc.) 50k 11
8.Hitchcock to Rookie (150k) 12
9. Danger to Gun 50k 12
10.Maguire to rookie (200k) 13
11.Ladson to Gun 13/14
12 Hunt to Gun 14
We are now left with 5 trades and this team
Hodge Goddard Enright Kennelly Shaw GUN GUN rookies
Swan Stanton Selwood GUN GUN GUN shuey rookie
Sandilands Hille Warnock lobbe
ROK Pavlich Goodes Giansiracusa GUN GUN rockliff rookie rookie

The approach leaves us with a good team, still 5 trades left which should be enough, but leaves us with rockliff not upgraded and possibly a few points lost

Analysis
Option 1 Advantages
- Better team output scoring (as players are in sooner and you get more points)
- Better final team
Disagvantages
- More prone to late zeroes
- Team could burn out

Option 2
Advantages
- More trades for later rounds
- Get the best potential guns at a really good price
Disadvantages
- Lose points on others that they are getting from trading early
- Worser final team

In conclusion i prefer option 1. The goal of our team is to create a high scoring team and even if that means we risk the luck of having some late injuries that's a chance we have to take if we want to be up contesting for that car at the end of the year.
p.s.Also sorry i did the order of the trade numbers the wrong way round in the second attempt. In my notes i had made previously, this was how i made it and i was just too lazy to fix that.

 

[fatmungus]

Lets look at the Hitchcock ($144,100 B/E of 17) to Pods ($77,800 B/E -143) trade.

The net result of this trade is $66,300.

Really? I was thinking the same thing as I only have Hall/Gumbleton but Podsiadly could be a broughton of 2010. And you can't afford to not hop on that boat.

You wait, Hitchcock goes up another ~50k and u cash 110k for the trade. or
Trade, Pods goes up 200k and u cash in 250k or 125k per trade.

Now will 3 talls stick at geelong? Works well.
Will Pods hold his spot when brown/others come back? 70/30
Rookie elevation is rd 11 so could he become good cover right? Yep.

So far I am not trading despite the upside. Wait till thursday and if any forward rookie is dropped, jump on him IMO.

 

[stainedclass]

I think they already have stopped posting

Barely do we see Lakey, Dogs, Skank, Ausyid ect post anymore.

I agree with everything you have said AS9 and also KidA.

This board is quickly losing its way and its really hard to read all the rubbish that is posted. It gets very frustrating.

Its becoming alot like Fanfooty where people talk shit.

It's a skill to decipher what is and isn't junk. If you know what is good, then why complain?

 

[Spider Klein]

I don't think the net of Hitchcock to Pods is only 66k

I know it requires another trade but I think Pods will go up an extra 80k from what Hitchcock will go up. Halving this gives 40k extra to each trade made so net result around 106k for this trade.

That is why I would consider it. Having said that really only consider it if Hitchcock dropped this week.

 

[Houli2Gumbleton]

Such a painful thread to read.

Hitchcock to Pods has got to be one of the most laughable trades ever. I GoNnA BaNk $60k OmGZZZzZZzZ !!11!!!!!!11!

When you guys run out of trades by round 15 don't come crying to us.

KidA I respect you but why bother trying to reason with idiots? You give them great insight and knowledge and all they do is spit in your face.

I am going to do it. Could be a very good trade. I allready have 35K in the bank. This trade will allow me to have 100k in the bank which will allow me to do one of the following upgrades in the next couple of weeks:

Mckenzie -> Hayes/Selwood

or

Waters/Kennelly/Hunt -> Mackie/Grimes/Fisher/Carrazzo/Adcock

or

Dangerfield -> Didak/SJ/Davis/Franklin/Lockyer

Not a stupid trade at all. Also, Podsiadly will peak at around 100K ore than Hitchcock imo which leads to another extra 100K on top 0f the 65K

 

[Spider Klein]

The tough thing for me is when to try and have my team finalised. Do I keep trading in some rookies to make money if I have money in the bank already or do I get in a gun and let the oppurtunities of Pods, Rockliffe, Lucas (and the rest) pass by this week.

Everyone has their own strategies so anything said on here should be taken as advice not gospel.

Hitchcock to Pods is not as laughable as the thousands that went Hille to Seaby in round 2. Even with hindsight that was never a good idea.

 

[magpies03]

I am going to do it. Could be a very good trade. I allready have 35K in the bank. This trade will allow me to have 100k in the bank which will allow me to do one of the following upgrades in the next couple of weeks:

Mckenzie -> Hayes/Selwood

or

Waters/Kennelly/Hunt -> Mackie/Grimes/Fisher/Carrazzo/Adcock

or

Dangerfield -> Didak/SJ/Davis/Franklin/Lockyer

Not a stupid trade at all. Also, Podsiadly will peak at around 100K ore than Hitchcock imo which leads to another extra 100K on top 0f the 65K

Mate, there is no way id be trading hitcock to pods...
if 65k is considered a good trade i could pritty much trade all my rookies out now and claim i made 'good trades'. 65k is not enough gain to justify a trade imo. No one can put an exact figure on the boarder between a good valued trade and a bad trade however 65 is not enough.

If your dead set on bringing in pods, youd be better to downgrade dangerfield. The guy was never gonna be a keeper and at least youll net 166500k profit. Much better profit. Even if you have to run pods on the field, his probably gonna outscore danger anyway. If i were you id probably hold off and save ya trades but if your dead set on pods, id be trading danger and taking a bigger profit.

 

[Mancey]

Have Rockiff and Hitchcock as my rookies.

I banked on Ben Warren being a 70 odd average player this year but that hasn't worked out. With Rockiff scoring well i'm basically playing Warren on the bench each week, so he's getting traded for pods and a nice chunk of change (150k plus i believe)

My main worry is that Pods does a Muston. Got him in last year after 2 tons...proceeded to spud it up the rest of the season

 

[Childish Gambino]

Hitchcock to Pods is not as laughable as the thousands that went Hille to Seaby in round 2. Even with hindsight that was never a good idea.

I forgot about that trade. You should not be playing dreamteam if you made that trade lol.

I remember in round 2 seeing someone in the vent thread had started Warnock over Hille because Warnock scored 80 against the Tigers and Hille only scored 60 against the reigning premiers.